Locator: 48632WEALTH.
Chart of the day: AAPL up another $3 today. Tim will be pleased. So far, no mention by CNBC or the mainstream media that Tim Cook / Apple just bought more office space in the Bay Area to hand upwards of 2,000 more employees -- about the number needed to absorb OpenAI / Perplexity into Siri.
JOLTS job openings: numbers this morning are (much) better than expected. Even Sara Eisen noted that. Job openings are much better than expected.
The Fed chairman speaks. When he speaks, CNBC listens:
Futures were red this morning.
After JPow's comments this morning, the Dow surged 100 points. The NASDAQ is still slightly red but that's mostly due to the new kerfuffle between Trump and Musk that began in the past 24 hours.
JPow's comments suggest the Fed was not acting on data, but was fearful of Trump's tariffs. And in a faux pas, JPow said the Fed did not over-react -- he quickly corrected himself and said the Fed did not react to the tariffs. But confirmed that the Fed was not acting on data alone.
Why did the image of Pinocchio just flash in front of me?
Trump and JPow: right, wrong, or indifferent, Trump has only himself to blame if he thinks JPow is not lowering the Fed rate fast enough.
Trump telegraphed crushing tariffs that everyone "knew" would send inflation sky-high, only to remind us later, that his negotiating style is in "the art of the deal." Threaten with huge tariffs, then negotiate, explaining what he was really looking for (an improved balance of trade), and back down from high tariffs. The Fed could only assume we would see high tariffs and high inflation and they had to keep rates unchanged.
Now, tariffs are moderating to about what they were a year ago and "no" inflation due to tariffs is being seen by most folks. Even behind close doors, private phone calls with JPow might have helped Trump get what he wanted.
Having said that, all economic indicators suggest there's been no general harm to the US by keeping rates unchanged for the past six months.
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Rambling Today
The one big, beautiful bill.
It will be passed because the alternative -- not signing the bill will result in biggest tax increase in years and push the US into a recession -- no one is going to let that happen.
So, one way or another the bill is going to be passed.
Without a lot of what Trump is asking for, the debt will likely increase another $4 trillion or so, maybe $5 trillion.
With all the things Trump is asking for, the debt might increase by only $3 trillion.
Regardless, $4 trillion or $3 trillion -- that's a huge stimulus. And, yes, the investor class will do better than the non-investor class. If folks don't understand that, well ... what can I say.
This is Cramer's thesis.
- intergenerational wealth transfer is driving this market;
- the X, Y, Z, and Alpha generations are the Robinhood generation.
"The Robinhood generation" is a metonym for the way young investors are investing compared to "old school."
The Robinhood theory of investment is turning "old school" on its head. BRK, Costco, Nvidia over five years:
- old school, over five years, Costco: up 233%.
- really old school, over five years, BRK-B: up 172%.
- Robinhood, over five years, Nvidia: up 1,544%.
The bow wave of intergenerational transfer of wealth is now receding.
From AI: the baby boomer generation peaked in population in 1999, with nearly 79
million individuals. This peak included those born between 1946 and
1964, encompassing the post-World War II baby boom. The U.S. Census
Bureau defines baby boomers as individuals born between mid-1946 and
mid-1964.
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Schwab ETFs
I talk about the Schwab ETFs often.
This popped up yesterday. Link here.
JPMorgan,
link here:
JPMorgan, flashback, March 21, 2025: link here. You have to wade through a lot of verbiage to get to this, buried deep in the "article":
We would not let the bulls nor the bears derail our investment plans.
Remember everything that markets have experienced since the COVID-19 drawdown five years ago:
- inflation reaching the highest level since the 1980s;
- global central bank rate hikes;
- the Russian invasion of Ukraine;
- bank failures; and,
- two changes in the U.S. Presidential administration.
The S&P 500 increased more than +150%.
