The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/14/23

Saturday, October 14, 2023

A Bit Of Hyperbole? October 14, 2023

Locator: 45783HYPERBOLE.

Link here.

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The Sports Page

Friday, October 13, 2023.

The last time the Buffaloes will play a game on Friday the Thirteenth.

Look at that halftime score.

Local Chevrolet Dealers Are Knocking $10,000 Off The Silverado -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45782UAW.

Thinking "inventory" and UAW strike.

Link here.

Murder In The US -- A Record? October 14, 2023

Locator: 45781B.

Link here.

The United States may be experiencing one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded ... the author is a crime analyst based in New Orleans and co-founder of AH Datalytics.

Not on my bingo card.

Not widely reported.

I seem to get statistics on everything ... so how did I miss this one?

Wow, look at this lede:

Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022. Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline nationally. But even so, the drop shown in the preliminary data is astonishing.

The good news comes with the caveat that murder is not uniformly falling everywhere. Memphis, for example, has experienced an uptick following the killing of Tyre Nichols in January. Additionally, even a record double-digit percent decline in murder in 2023 would still mean that a couple thousand more people will be murdered in America this year than in 2019. Finally, mass shootings are on the rise even as overall gun violence appears to be falling.

All of that said, the good news is, well, good. Murder is down 13 percent in New York City, and shootings are down 25 percent, relative to last year as of late May.

Murder is down more than 20 percent in Los Angeles, Houston, and Philadelphia. And, most significantly, murder is down 30 percent—30 percent!—or more in Jackson, Mississippi; Atlanta, Georgia; Little Rock, Arkansas; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and others.

Explaining the trend is much more difficult than describing it. The cause of the Great Crime Decline of the 1990s, when murder fell 37 percent over six years, is still not fully understood, so any explanations of the current trend must remain in the hypothesis phase for now.

The national nature of both the surge in murder in 2020 and the apparent decrease this year suggests that national explanations will be more convincing than local anecdotes. Moreover, the factors that caused murder to begin to spike in the summer of 2020 may not be the same factors (now, theoretically, in reverse) that are contributing to its decline in 2023.

It is interesting. It doesn't seem like we've had much civil strife this past summer. Maybe it's just selective memory.

An Old Lime Rock Resources Well In Murphy Creek Shows Some Renewed Activity -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45780B.

The well:

18300, 1,562, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 1-33-28H-144-95, Murphy Creek, t2/10; cum 225K 8/14; cum 379K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	2587	2472	3348	1194	701	97
BAKKEN	7-2023	1	0	0	167	10	3	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	9	229	308	229	134	65	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	1129	1121	968	752	424	19
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	1112	1094	931	587	227	60
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1101	1126	946	718	46	365

Four wells on two neighboring pads (one large pad?)

17525, 1,414, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 31-4H, Murphy Creek, t4/10; 294K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	1857	1765	2365	892	493	47
BAKKEN	7-2023	7	0	0	769	32	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	13	434	510	422	338	222	5
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	1200	1168	1212	964	625	26
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	1097	1118	1230	683	325	59
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1222	1235	1160	842	109	419

35654, 917, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 5-3-10H-143-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; 256K 8/23; note the high permit number for a well completed back in 2019;

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	3320	3444	9443	1725	1028	270
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	3935	3849	13122	2080	1496	111
BAKKEN	6-2023	24	3476	3360	8956	1655	1132	127
BAKKEN	5-2023	15	2140	2336	6510	1293	0	1050
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	4877	4881	15072	2515	624	1365
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	5421	5484	18706	1943	351	1026
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	5945	5676	18195	1611	1	1046
BAKKEN	1-2023	3	237	259	736	22	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	4	198	407	439	170	142	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	2413	2377	5486	1851	1315	158
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	2091	2054	5383	1602	1243	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	30	2545	2559	6181	2175	1701	98

35655, 1,015, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 5-33-28H-144-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; 300K 8/23; note the high permit number for a well completed back in 2019;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	2845	2896	5013	1884	863	614
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	2801	2802	5223	1822	931	482
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	2968	2981	5040	1912	782	719
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	3019	3002	5233	1855	312	1125
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	2916	2891	5089	1708	401	900
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	2803	2808	5174	858	202	250

Change In Fortune In Two Wells Near Williston -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45779B.

The well: : at $50 / bbl back in November, 2022 = $42,000 / month; most recently, 8/23, at $80 / bbl = $280,000 / month.

20160, 2,173, Grayson Mill/Statoil / BEXP, Field 18-19 3H, Todd; t10/11; cum 194K 9/16; cum 291K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	3413	3430	15357	4246	3137	1109
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	3493	3452	18746	3690	3031	659
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	3633	3591	22951	3540	2325	1215
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	2825	2623	27903	2732	1082	1574
BAKKEN	4-2023	19	1114	975	20538	1096	568	460
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	4	93	386	128	139	106	17
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	844	828	1079	1267	863	280
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	840	796	911	1099	897	82
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	860	1003	1042	1121	945	56
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	856	829	976	992	937	31
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	898	894	1049	1015	986	29
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	843	869	878	913	855	58

The well: at $50 / bbl back in November, 2022 = $12,500 / month; most recently, 8/23, at $80 / bbl = $96,000 / month.

19308, 1,235, Oasis, Glover 5601 12-17H, Wildcat/Tyrone, t6/11; cum 137K 12/14; cum 230K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	1137	807	2690	1388	1285	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	1208	1428	2725	1627	1508	14
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	1259	1068	3869	1648	747	772
BAKKEN	5-2023	24	1150	1218	2889	1500	734	666
BAKKEN	4-2023	15	151	0	1120	204	0	165
BAKKEN	3-2023	26	527	553	2006	677	371	280
BAKKEN	2-2023	7	0	0	1028	7	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	15	85	0	1526	136	0	90
BAKKEN	12-2022	7	277	591	419	369	151	189
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	247	248	1315	661	478	132
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	834	742	1948	593	355	238
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	497	487	1343	601	320	230
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	597	530	1751	665	446	163

Niemitalo #19502 -- This Old Well -- Spud In 2008 -- Completed In 2011 -- Off Line Since Early 2021 -- Now Back On Line -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45778B.

The well:

The Niemitalo 31-15XH (#19502) runs parallel to the Kinnoin 11-14H (#17081) which had an IP of 3,311, and has produced 534,267 bbls of oil as of 6/12. It was spudded 8/08. (At $50/bbl, 400K bbls = $20 million.) 400,000 bbls in less than three years and it continues to produce at 10,000 bbls/month (at $75/bbl, 3/4 of a million dollars every month); t2/11; cum 426K 7/17; cum 515K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	920	942	729	1191	1074	55
BAKKEN	7-2023	21	596	553	1036	804	763	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	6	343	466	34	492	492	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1801	1969	192	3071	3045	26
BAKKEN	5-2021	26	1637	1725	207	3051	2951	100
BAKKEN	4-2021	28	1729	1687	176	4225	4225	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1793	1716	238	4888	4826	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1958	1858	230	3827	3771	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	1884	2200	257	4703	4641	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	1978	1600	299	4363	4301	0

Taking a look at the map: it appears two new wells are being completed in the area -- #32123 and #32124.

Retail Theft -- Credit Card Company Source -- Updated April 13, 2023 -- Some Data Old -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45777RETAIL.

Updates

Later, 10:30 p.m. CT: going down this rabbit hole was because I was curious if shoplifting was actually increasing (it appears it has) and, if so, why? I now feel very comfortable connecting the dots. One five-letter word connects the dots. And the theft of Tide is not due to "my" definition of shoplifting. Exhibit A: Portland, Oregon.

Later, 9:57 p.m. CT: in a sidebar e-mail discussion with a reader, a reader was surprised about Tide being under lock and key in the Target stores in the reader's home town. I didn't think much about it. I've been used to seeing high-priced, high-demand items under lock and key for a long time. The best example: Rogaine has been under lock and key for as long as I can remember.

I was kind of perplexed -- what was I missing? KSN-16, Joplin, Missouri, provides some help. Once you go down that rabbit hole, it never stops. But I still think folks are connecting important dots. Link here.

KSNF/KODE — Everyone needs it and if you buy if from Facebook Marketplace, chances are it’s stolen. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2022 Retail Security Survey, laundry detergent remains a staple for thieves just as it does for the average consumer.
In fact, when breaking down the percentages of items stolen from retailers, detergent sits right behind designer clothes (34%) in second place at 21%.
But what makes the clean commodity so popular among thieves?
There’s a couple of reasons why it’s earned the moniker “liquid gold”: For starters, the desire for clean clothes extends to all social strata; rich or poor. A highly consumed product like detergent (or razors and baby formula) is always in need. This high demand assures thieves a quick turnaround. Along the same lines, detergent does not spoil which gives shoplifters an added layer of security to their haul. Finally, these pirates-of-Persil know that retailers have strict rules in place for employees to not interfere with shoplifters due to liabilities.
Just recently, two California Big Lots managers were fired even after successfully stopping a man taking a cart full of stolen Tide jugs. Where do these ill-gotten-‘Gain(s)’ wind up? Often times right in your community’s Facebook marketplace. A search for ‘laundry detergent’ will turn up hundreds of results for local detergent sellers in many areas of the country.

I could go on all night but one gets the picture. Google shoplifting top items detergent Tide and one will get more than 550,000 hits in less than a second.

Two big dots connected: Tide -- quick money to buy illicit drugs.

By the way, a bit more searching reveals that shoplifting Tide is not likely the work of amateurs. This is "organized" crime and not shoplifting per se. The fog on this issue is starting to lift. Link here to a Denver story, July, 2023.

But there you have it. When a product is the #1 target of "organized" crime, no wonder it's under lock and key. For the record, Tide is not locked up in any of the big box stores, including both Walmart and Target, where I shop.

But it does suggest to me, that I may want to start stockpiling detergent. What's in our utility room?

Original Post

From credit card statistics, retail theft (shoplifting) by state, per capita, selected, link here, grouped by region. I did not find any state higher than ND / SD but I did not look at all states. If one finds a state higher than ND/SD let readers know (it turns out there are at least three).

North Dakota: 24% higher than national average. [Apparently oil workers like clean clothes also.]
South Dakota: 28% higher than national average.
Montana: 12% higher than national average.
Minnesota: 10% higher than national average.

California: 4% lower than national average.
Oregon: 6% lower than national average.
Washington: 8% lower than national average.

Mississippi: 15% higher than national average.
Alabama: 2% higher than national average.
Louisiana: less than 1% higher than national average. $270 per capita.

Texas: 12% lower than the national averag.
New Mexico: 4% higher than national average.
Arizona: 13% lower than national average.

Nation's capital, DC: 26% less than the national average.

Would this suggest in some states a very small group of folks are shoplifting high-priced items and in other states lots of shoplifters but engaged in small nickel-dime stuff? I honestly don't know. There is a lot of data but I'm not sure what it all means -- and, of course, retail theft must include both consumer- and employee-related.

So, let's check my theory. I haven't looked at Wyoming. I just did. Does Wyoming's data support my "theory"?

You can also check another "small" state: New Hampshire. And Vermont.

Maine? Maybe.

A different statistic:

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Self Check-Out

Social media impact.

The most recent "controversy" on self-checkout lanes at US retail stores started with this -- across the entire United States, repeat, across the entire United States, Walmart, which has 10,500 stores in the US, it was reported by local media and then spread across social media like wildfire: three Walmart stores in one city has removed all self-checkout lanes.

Say what you want but this sounds like a "test" by corporate headquarters to see if removing self-checkout lanes makes a difference. [Later, I'm wrong, here we go: wow, wow, wow -- I've just connected the dots -- it now all makes sense why there's an upsurge in shoplifting in the city in which Walmart has removed all self-checkout lanes. Wow, wow, wow. It connects the dots: Texas is now laying concertina wire along the border with New Mexico. Taking this a step further: the word is out: Texas will off free (Greyhound bus) transportation to points west and north. We're seeing the 21st century version of the underground railroad: families making their way to sanctuary states and sanctuary cities. Wow, wow. wow. Why I love to blog.]

Let's say it's not a test. Let's say Walmart sees something in this city it sees nowhere else. That says more about that city than about pros/cons of self-checkout.

Surfing the net suggests retailers will take a page out of the Las Vegas casino playbook. Using facial recognition technology, retailers will concentrate on the 20% that account for 80% of consumer retail theft (shoplifting). That 80/20 rule? I think it's more like 95/5 across most of the US.

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Texas

Everyday is a circus.

I can't articulate how incredibly fun this area is. Everyday something happening. Today, I took Sophia to Daiso, and en route saw a huge party down at "Total Wines and More" -- O\one vendor --tequila -- has just completed 31 weeks of a national tour -- Rock And Roll Tequila -- based out of Miami -- one last month on tour -- will spend the last month in Texas. Whoo-hoo!

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The Book Page

This is really, really cool.

The writer of the Shakespeare plays was Sir Henry Neville, from a long line of a very, very important family during the reign of Henry VII, and perhaps before. The Neville family would have played key roles during the transition from Henry VII to Queen Anne (nine days) to Mary I to Elizabeth 1.

It is most interesting to read biographies of British royalty during those periods to see if one can spot the Neville family.

I am now finishing Linda Porter's biography of Queen Mary 1, the first queen of England -- and I've run across the Neville name three times. Neville is in the index only twice. Neville, aka the bard, would have come of age during the last days of Henry VIII and would have started to reach his stride during the reign of Mary I. The next book I need to read is one that covers the transition from Mary 1 to Elizabeth 1 to see if I can find the dots of that period to connect with the dots of the Shakespearian plays.

One book? Rewriting The Renaissance.

Really, really cool, the heroines of the Renaissance.

Isabella of Castille, 1451 - 1504. She and her husband financed an important voyages in the 1490s.
Katherine of Aragon: Henry VIII's first wife. Died after divorce, 1485 - 1536. Daughter of Isabella of Castille. And Ferdinand. Wow.
Catherine de Medici, 1519 - 1589.

Born into one of the most powerful families in Medieval Florence, Catherine de Medici was her own force to be reckoned with. She may not have been born with a crown on her head but the Medici money kept Henry II of France’s country and court afloat. Catherine is remembered for producing a great number of heirs and for fostering and betrothing her son to Mary, Queen of Scots.

Elizabeth I, 1533 - 1603. Contemporary of Sir Henry Neville, aka the bard.
Mary, Queen of Scots, 1542 - 1587.

My personal favorite Renaissance queen, Mary Queen of Scots has such a troubling history. The Scots have always been a rambunctious people, a people that don’t like to be told what to do or who their ruler is. Throw in religious divides and you have yourself Mary’s life. Mary was Catholic while many of the Scots wanted to be Protestant. After the death of her father, at six days old, Mary was queen. At age five she was sent to the safety of France to be raised at French court where she was betrothed to the French heir, Francis. She and Francis ruled for a short time, until his untimely death. She then went to Scotland to her rightful seat only to be pushed to abdication by the Scottish nobles. Seeking sanctuary from those who didn’t want her in Scotland, she went to England. Instead of sanctuary, Elizabeth I imprisoned and later executed the Scottish Queen.

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The Book Page

Bonus: a kletic poem. Not keltic (Celtic) but kletic.

Link here.

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NASCAR XFINITY

Playoffs.

Round of 8:

Las Vegas: today. For points and/or a win.

Herbst wins by 15 seconds -- holy mackerel
then Nemechek, Custer, C. Smith, Mayer, Allgaier, A. Hill, Jones, Hemric, and Riggs round out the top 10

Homestead-Miami: next week (October 21)
Martinsville, VA: weekend before Halloween

Championship: down to 4:

Phoenix: November 4.

A Slowly Sinking Balloon Vs A Sharp Pop -- October 14, 2023

Locator: 45776CHINA.

Updates

October 15, 2023: going bust. Peter Zeihan not mentioned.

Original Post

It is amazing how times have changed. Prior to Covid-19, it was reported incessantly that the Chinese economy would overtake the US by (insert your date here) and that China would someday buy the entire United States.

Now? Not so much.

Note the dates when these items were published:

UK-CEBR: