Laser-Focused On Dividends -- Hess -- March 6, 2023

I cannot recall if this has been previously posted. 

Link here.

Rivian To Sell $1.3 Billion In Bonds -- March 6, 2023

Four days ago, this was anticipated by The WSJ. Link here.

Now, today: 

RIVN drops six percent after hours.

March 31st -- Drop-Dead Deadline -- March 6, 2023

If you go to twiiter, and search "Willow Project," tweets are running about 20 - 1, maybe 30 - 1, with those opposing the project outnumbering those who support the project. 

As someone noted, this is a "legacy" decision for President Biden. 

In fact, this is all about fundraising and everyone opposing the project is milking it for all it's worth. It would be a shame for President Biden to announce his decision before March 31st when there is so much more money to be raised.

A fool and her money are soon parted. 

*************************
Headlines

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Night Sky

Both Jupiter and Venus are still easily visible in the southwest sky but two things have changed.

Most notable, the two planets are almost "on top of each other."

Second, they have switched "relative" positions. Up until tonight, Venus was "below" Jupiter; tonight Venus is "above" Jupiter.

I'm observing the night sky from poolside and listening to music -- taking me back to north Yorkshire, where I also spent many wonderful nights observing the night sky and listening to great music with a most wonderful spy. LOL. I was assigned to a USAF intelligence agency at the time. 

*********************
Coffee

I subscribe to Amazon for Keurig coffee. 

As with all such subscription programs, Amazon alerts me in time to modify the delivery, to include cancelling the subscription.

Right on cue, tonight:

Inflation? What inflation? 

And 30 cents for a cup of coffee vs $3.00 at Starbucks. Folks are nuts.

Speaking of which, we alternate Amazon brand with Starbucks, but I may eliminate the Amazon brand and switch to just Starbucks Pikes Place, but we also regularly use other brands, including Dunkin' and McCafe. But I do prefer Starbucks to Amazon.

If every retailer (on-line or brick/mortar) was as good as Amazon, the world would be a whole lot better off. Just saying. In the four or five years that we've had this subscription, the price has never gone up.

Let's just check Starbucks at Amazon: 

Nope, at 58 cents/cup, I'll wait for local grocery store sale, LOL. 

************************
March Madness

Printable bracket here when it becomes available, not sooner than March 12, 2023.

*******************
Entertainment

Remember "Tootsie"?

Robin Williams, in "Tootsie," was channeling William Powell in "Love Crazy," 1941.

The B-52 Is Simply Incredible -- March 6, 2023

Link here. 

After completing flight medicine training, the B-52 was the first operational a/c I flew on as a crew member. I assume it was the B-52H, but I've long forgotten.

It was an all-night, terrrain-following, low-altitude training mission that took off from Grand Forks AFB, ND, about 8:00 p.m., flying over (through?) the Rocky Mountains (Montana?) and returning to base about 8:00 a.m. the next morning. It's possible we returned earlier; I've forgotten a lot. The mission included in-flight re-fueling. 

The flight jacket I was issued still had the name of the flyer that had that jacket before I did: Major Baier. I had that jacket for thirty years and was allowed to keep it upon retiring. It's one of my few prized possessions from those days of flying. That jacket is still in excellent shape and is the only one I wear on Veterans' Day. Next time I get it out, I'll take a photo and sharer it.

What Everybody Forgets -- March 6, 2023

Updates

Later, 7:13 p.m. CT: in the original post below, I mentioned that we would likely hear from Peter Zeihan. And here it is: so much is packed into this short note:

Again, the folks most interested in this war:

• US Army: wanna bet US (human) assets are embedded in Ukraine ground operations?
• USAF airborne reconnaissance; airborne intel; airborne command and control. Wanna bet Ukraine "observers" are flying on our AWACS?

Original Post

Ukraine is Putin's Vietnam.

When "we" saw the news this morning, some might have been alarmed / sad (except, of course those who are rooting for Putin to win) but there's always more to the story.

Some folks suggest Putin plans to "wear out" the Ukrainians. No such luck. Putin's army will be worn out first. 

Ukraine military forces can drop back, and then re-attack. This can go on for years. 

US intel and EU logistics will make it impossible for a third-rate military to succeed. We will probably hear more from Peter Zeihan on this note.

Speaking of those who are rooting for Putin to win reminded me. The leader of the US House was on CNBC this morning. He did himself and the GOP no favors if he / the GOP hopes to "win" the "debt ceiling" war.

Second Of Three Posts -- The Outlier Among European Countries -- Covid -- March 6, 2023

Previously: if you are playing this game, this is the second of three posts -- in the following chart, there is one outlier and only one outlier and it's not Sweden:

The one outlier is The Netherlands.

The last note, the third of three notes will explain the reason why The Netherlands has an excess mortality in the same range -- 11% to 12% as Greece, Spain, Estonia, etc., when The Netherlands should be grouped with Norway / Sweden (4 - 5%) or typical western European countries (Belgium, Germany, France) at 8% to 9%.

The Netherlands has/have nothing in common with Greece, Spain, Estonia and yet that's where The Netherlands ended up. The Netherlands should have ended up with a much lower excess mortality had they been similar to the other Nordic / Northern European countries.

Now, for the third and last post, to be posted tomorrow, why was The Netherlands, at almost 12%, almost 3x that of Sweden?

The game is afoot.

Hint: England is not on the list, although Ireland is. And Ireland, at 8.0% is about twice that of Sweden.

Original Post

Start here, see this post, to play this game.

This note is the first of three parts to the denouement.

This (below) is what jumped out at me when I saw the original chart (at the link above). 

The grouping: similar nations with similar percent of "excess deaths," similar outcomes.

So, now, after looking at the groupings, look for the one outlier. There is one outlier and it's not Sweden.

By the way, I got a great note from a reader from Scandinavia.

My reply to the note above:

Thank you.

That is incredibly helpful --- the note about seniors in Sweden getting their vaccinations, and, the difference between the Protestant and Catholic countries.

I think you will enjoy seeing what I think is the outlier and why that country was an outlier. Your note helped immensely. Thank you.

Another reader also suggested Iceland, but Iceland is not the outlier. When the outlier is pointed out, it will jump right out at you. You will not be able to "un-see" it.

AAPL And Back-To-The-Bakken; MRO With Four New Permits -- March 6, 2023

Energy: the 21st century is America's century. Link here.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

I'm posting this for extended family members.

Had it not been for AAPL today, the market would have done badly, waiting for JPow's remarks tomorrow.

Following his remarks tomorrow, the best the market will do is "break even." Everything suggests that after he speaks the market will fall enough to "concern" many investors.

As noted above, had it not been for AAPL today, the market would have done badly.

I sent the following to a reader:

On January 5, 2023, just two months ago AAPL was trading at $125.

Today, AAPL is trading at $154.

I will let someone else do the math if anyone wants to know what that would be annualized. LOL.

1. The economy looks better now than it did in January which accounts for a bit of AAPL's move today.

2. But the big reason for the upward move today was because an analyst at Goldman Sachs put AAPL as a "buy" and has set a target of $199 -- targets are defined as one year out, in other words, March, 2024.

3. AAPL will be very volatile but I think we have a new floor, around $145 for the rest of the year. Even under best of circumstances, I doubt AAPL will get to $175 by the end of the year.

For me, with my 40-30-20-5-5 "new money" allotment scheme, AAPL is a "hold" at $160.

• "One of the "5's" is for Big Pharma (healthcare); the other is for Daimler Truck. I am looking at Daimler Truck at 2.5% and RACE at 2.5%.
  

On another note, WTI broke through $80 and remained comfortably above $80 after the close.

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $80.46.

Natural gas: $2.572.

Four new permits: #39699 - #39702, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO;
• Fields: Killdeer (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for the following wells, DeMay, Arlene, Eelainne, and Barsness, all in SESW 33-146-94, 
• to be sited 385 FSL annd between 1699 FWL and 1899 FWL

Coming off confidential list over the weekend:

Monday, March 6, 2023: 28 for the month; 190 for the quarter, 190 for the year

• 39097, drl, CLR, Woodrow 5-32H, West Capa;
• 38340, A/F, Enerplus, Backhand 149-92-31C-30H,  Heart Butte,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	28	22833	22877	21124	18725	15114	1479
BAKKEN	12-2022	17	16555	16491	16971	13255	8838	2901
BAKKEN	11-2022	26	25561	25573	26595	14973	11197	1406
BAKKEN	10-2022	24	18051	18044	19709	13644	11655	519
BAKKEN	9-2022	17	18103	18027	28627	13749	10584	1612
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36481, PNC, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H, Heart Butte, 
• 11574 (no typo), 30, Empire North Dakota LLC, USA Johnson 1-19, a Madison well; t7/81; cum 32K 1/23;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
MADISON	1-2023	11	696	458	13920	0	0	0
MADISON	12-2022	14	337	352	6740	0	0	0
MADISON	11-2022	21	381	304	7620	0	0	0
MADISON	10-2022	7	21	65	420	0	0	0
MADISON	9-2022	18	43	0	95	0	0	0
MADISON	8-2022	31	161	259	352	0	0	0

Sunday, March 5, 2023: 24 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 186 for the year

• 39098, drl, CLR, Woodrow 6-32H, West Capa,
• 38749, drl, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-5H, Sand Creek,
• 38341, F/A, Enerplus, Dropshot 149-92-31C-30, Heart Butte, t--; cum 82K 1/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	29	17586	17623	28531	15625	12725	1245
BAKKEN	12-2022	20	13170	13119	22032	11384	7550	2479
BAKKEN	11-2022	26	17365	17375	32823	11569	8799	1123
BAKKEN	10-2022	30	18584	18576	34593	13200	11067	489
BAKKEN	9-2022	19	14914	14852	38723	11497	8788	1339
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36483, PNC, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16HA, Heart Butte,
• 36482, PNC, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H3, Heart Butte,
• 23930 (no typo), loc/A, Hunt, Oakland 2-18-19H, Parshall,
  

Saturday, March 4, 2023: 18 for the month; 180 for the quarter, 180 for the year

• 39099, drl, CLR, Woodrow 7-32H, West Capa,
• 38748, drl, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-5H, Sand Creek,
• 38616, A, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H 4, Werner,
• 28847 (no typo), PNC, Hunt, Oakland 2-7-6H, Parshall, 

One DUC reported as completed:

• 38597, 370, Ovintiv, Obenour 150-99-33-28-8H, McKenzie County;

Spaceholder --- Enjoying The Weather Poolside -- 4:15 P.M. -- March 6, 2023

I don't recall the forecast to have 82°F, clear skies, and no wind today. But that's what it is. In a few minutes I take Sophia to Jiu-Jitsu but then when we get back home at 6:00 p.m. I will be back at the pool. Still too cool to enjoy the water, but the poolside lounging will be awesome. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

Because of paywalls (and perhaps lack of interest on the part of journalists, I was unable to read what John Podesta had to say about Willow at the big Houston oil and gas conference today, but the Bloomberg headline suggested that the White House climate adviser (is that John Podesta?) "pledges to fix permitting delays." That, for me, is a "tell." That suggests the White House will approve at least three discovery wells for the COP Willow Project. If Biden does approve the project he will say it's "a national security issue" and that without continued production from the North Slope, the TAPS is in jeopardy. So, that's that.

***************************
Evening -- Poolside

83°F earlier today. Now 76°F at 6:40 p.m.  CT, north Texas.

The Alaska Willow Project -- March 6, 2023

There is talk that Biden could announce his decision today.  Watch for John Podesta's remarks in Houston today.

Not ready for prime time. 

The White House has two wings: the realpolitik and the ideological wings. 

Rarely do we get to see "definitive fallout" from these two wings when it comes to energy.

For example, the on-again / off-again / mixed messages with regard to drilling on federal land is a great example. In that arena, a lot of stories but it's difficult to really figure out how that "argument" is playing out. The ideological wing generally wins the headlines but the results have not meant much in the big scheme of things.

The Keystone XL was a great example -- in that case the ideological wing won -- the Keystone XL was killed. "Everyone" knows that was a very, very wrong decision. It played to a fringe element in the Democratic Party and it was a "thank you" for their support.

The Keystone XL was interesting but after ten years on the front page of energy politics most folks had tired of the story and didn't really care one way or the other. And after ten years, US oil companies had figured out how to exist without the XL. In fact, one can argue that had the XL been in operation in 2000, the Bakken never would have happened. 

All that for this.

The big story this month, with regard to energy and the realpolitik and the ideological wings is the Willow Project in Alaska.

COP wants Biden to approve five exploratory wells.

COP says less than three wells will be a deal-breaker.

COP needs the decision by the end of March, 2023, if there is any chance for drilling to begin this summer.

If Biden kills the project, denies even three exploratory wells, it will be a clear indication that the ideological wing is in control in the administration.

There's no way Biden will approve five wells.

I think Biden sees his decision as a "no-brainer" but I wouldn't bet a nickel on this either way.

For me, it's a win-win however he decides. If anything, I lean slightly to hoping he disapproves the COP request. This is a "decision" based on my investment portfolio, not on ideology. 

*****************

Break, break.

How could Biden thread the needle.

Delay his decision until after the "2023 drop-dead deadline."

Announce in late March that he will make his decision in April. Then in late April, announces that he will approve the request for three exploratory wells.  

Why won't he do that? He loses both wings, that's why, if he delays the decision to April. Although, delaying the decision to April is very much akin to a "pocket veto."

Guyana: Wants To Bring In New Majors -- March 6, 2023

Reminder:

Link here.

So, this is what we have:

• Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
• Surinam: Apache and TTE.
• Guyana: XOM.
• Venezuela: CVX.

A reader alerted me to a Charles Kennedy article on Guyana today.  

I had forgotten that Hess partnered with XOM on Guyana.

Now we watch for Shell and and CVX bidding for Guyana; both have experience in this geographic area.

Guyana is tracked here at the sidebar at the right. That site needs to be updated.

Fourteen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- March 6, 2023

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $78.60.

Natural gas: $2.675.

Monday, March 6, 2023: 28 for the month; 190 for the quarter, 190 for the year
39097, conf, CLR, Woodrow 5-32H,
38340, conf, Enerplus, Backhand 149-92-31C-30H,
36481, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H,
11574 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, USA Johnson 1-19,

Sunday, March 5, 2023: 24 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 186 for the year
39098, conf, CLR, Woodrow 6-32H,
38749, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-5H,
38341, conf, Enerplus, Dropshot 149-92-31C-30,
36483, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16HA,
36482, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H3,
23930 (no typo), conf, Hunt, Oakland 2-18-19H,

Saturday, March 4, 2023: 18 for the month; 180 for the quarter, 180 for the year
39099, conf, CLR, Woodrow 7-32H,
38748, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-5H,
38616, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H 4,
28847 (no typo), conf, Hunt, Oakland 2-7-6H,

RBN Energy: to understand the hydrocarbon value chain, start with the basics. 

The energy industry — everything from oil and gas production and transportation to oil refining, gas processing and NGL fractionation — has a myriad of variables influenced by dozens of factors. It’s a value chain so vast you’d think it would be impossible to explain in simple terms. But behind it all is a well-oiled machine for developing the resources that literally fuel our modern economy. And, by understanding what happens at each link in the value chain, you can ultimately gain a clearer picture of what’s happening in energy markets. In today’s RBN blog, we kick off a series aimed at examining and explaining the oil and gas value chain, starting with the upstream world of exploration and production — what happens in production areas, the types of companies that operate in that segment, and the critical role of oil and gas reserves.