The Alaska Willow Project -- March 6, 2023

There is talk that Biden could announce his decision today.  Watch for John Podesta's remarks in Houston today.

Not ready for prime time. 

The White House has two wings: the realpolitik and the ideological wings. 

Rarely do we get to see "definitive fallout" from these two wings when it comes to energy.

For example, the on-again / off-again / mixed messages with regard to drilling on federal land is a great example. In that arena, a lot of stories but it's difficult to really figure out how that "argument" is playing out. The ideological wing generally wins the headlines but the results have not meant much in the big scheme of things.

The Keystone XL was a great example -- in that case the ideological wing won -- the Keystone XL was killed. "Everyone" knows that was a very, very wrong decision. It played to a fringe element in the Democratic Party and it was a "thank you" for their support.

The Keystone XL was interesting but after ten years on the front page of energy politics most folks had tired of the story and didn't really care one way or the other. And after ten years, US oil companies had figured out how to exist without the XL. In fact, one can argue that had the XL been in operation in 2000, the Bakken never would have happened. 

All that for this.

The big story this month, with regard to energy and the realpolitik and the ideological wings is the Willow Project in Alaska.

COP wants Biden to approve five exploratory wells.

COP says less than three wells will be a deal-breaker.

COP needs the decision by the end of March, 2023, if there is any chance for drilling to begin this summer.

If Biden kills the project, denies even three exploratory wells, it will be a clear indication that the ideological wing is in control in the administration.

There's no way Biden will approve five wells.

I think Biden sees his decision as a "no-brainer" but I wouldn't bet a nickel on this either way.

For me, it's a win-win however he decides. If anything, I lean slightly to hoping he disapproves the COP request. This is a "decision" based on my investment portfolio, not on ideology. 

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Break, break.

How could Biden thread the needle.

Delay his decision until after the "2023 drop-dead deadline."

Announce in late March that he will make his decision in April. Then in late April, announces that he will approve the request for three exploratory wells.  

Why won't he do that? He loses both wings, that's why, if he delays the decision to April. Although, delaying the decision to April is very much akin to a "pocket veto."