Friday, January 7, 2022

SCCO Recently Raised Its Quarterly Dividend -- January 7, 2022

SCCO recently increased its quarterly dividend.

Note how frequently SCCO has been raising its quarterly dividend. 

From this link less than a month ago: SCCO added as top 5 metals channel dividend with 7.01% yield, December 16, 2021.

Southern Copper Corp has been named as a Top 5 dividend paying metals and mining stock, according to Dividend Channel, which published its weekly ''DividendRank'' report. The report noted that among metals and mining companies, SCCO shares displayed both attractive valuation metrics and strong profitability metrics. The report also cited the strong quarterly dividend history at Southern Copper Corp, and favorable long-term multi-year growth rates in key fundamental data points.

The report stated, ''Dividend investors approaching investing from a value standpoint are generally most interested in researching the strongest most profitable companies, that also happen to be trading at an attractive valuation. That's what we aim to find using our proprietary DividendRank formula, which ranks the coverage universe based upon our various criteria for both profitability and valuation, to generate a list of the top most 'interesting' stocks, meant for investors as a source of ideas that merit further research.''

The annualized dividend paid by Southern Copper Corp is $4/share, currently paid in quarterly installments, and its most recent dividend ex-date was on 11/09/2021. Below is a long-term dividend history chart for SCCO, which Dividend Channel stressed as being of key importance. Indeed, studying a company's past dividend history can be of good help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: this is the third major change in the blog for 2022 -- an increased emphasis on publicly traded companies I follow for a number of reasons. I may or may not hold positions in any of the companies I highlight. But the companies all have something in common: they help me better understand "energy" in general, and the Bakken, specifically.

EPD Announces A 3.3 Percent Increase In Its Quarterly Distribution -- January 7, 2022

Two links:

Press release:

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. announced today that the board of directors of its general partner declared the quarterly cash distribution paid to limited partners holding Enterprise common units with respect to the fourth quarter of 2021 of $0.465 per unit, or $1.86 per unit on an annualized basis.

The quarterly distribution will be paid Friday, February 11, 2022, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business Monday, January 31, 2022. This distribution represents a 3.3 percent increase over the distribution declared with respect to the fourth quarter of 2020.

In addition, during the fourth quarter of 2021, Enterprise purchased $125 million of its common units in the open market, bringing the total amount of common unit buybacks during 2021 to $200 million. Including these repurchases, Enterprise has utilized 24 percent of its $2.0 billion buyback program authorized in January 2019.

Enterprise continues its history of consistently returning capital to its investors with 2021 marking twenty-three consecutive years of distribution growth. Enterprise will continue to evaluate opportunities to grow future cash distributions, invest in midstream infrastructure, opportunistically buy back common units and maintain a strong balance sheet.

Enterprise will announce its earnings for the fourth quarter of 2021 on Tuesday, February 1, 2022, before the New York Stock Exchange opens for trading. 

From the SeekingAlpha link:

This series of articles is intended to provide Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Pinball Analysis as accompaniment to Rida Morwa's High Dividend Opportunities (HDO) Service. Our goal is to provide greater context as to where price is within the trend for the opportunities being presented by Rida Morwa's High Dividend Opportunities (HDO) group. This will include support regions for potential entries and target regions for the bigger trend.

In this article we'll be providing analysis on Enterprise Products Partners.

In his December 13th article, "Swim in Cash With This Big Yield," Rida wrote:

"As an investment, EPD has been a reliable dividend company with 23 years of annual dividend growth under its belt. EPD has been able to manage the swings of the volatile energy industry through prudent balance sheet management. With a BBB+ credit rating, EPD has the highest credit rating in its sector. EPD has generously rewarded investors while also becoming fully self-funding."

Regarding being "self-funding," EPD is now in position to pay for its anticipated capex without issuing new equity or debt.

Considering that EPD often yields in the 6% range, the current yield of 7.95% as of the close 1/5/2022 offers an attractive entry.

And as of 1/6/2022, EPD announced a 3.3% increase in the dividend.

Notes From All Over -- January 7, 2022

Snow: second snowiest day ever in Buffalo, NY. 

Covid-19: look at the number of vaccine doses the US government distributed to healthcare facilities, pharmacies, etc., yesterday. 

The maximum number of doses provided by the federal government is about 4 million. I've never seen more than 5 million doses distributed in one day. 

And then, yesterday, January 6, 2022, the government distributed 14.5 million doses in one day, about 15x the average that is distributed on a daily basis.

[Note: you will notice the negative numbers over the New Year's Day weekend; that's not unusual. That occurs often when the CDC audits / reconciles its data.]



A

B

C



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Friday

January 7, 2022

632,575,655

0

516,597,039

Thursday

January 6, 2022

632,575,655

14,499,610

515,162,867

Wednesday

January 5, 2022

618,076,045

3,664,230

513,839,973

Tuesday

January 4, 2022

614,411,815

-189,330

512,265,013

Monday

January 3, 2022

614,601,145

-189,330

511,343,608

Sunday

January 2, 2022

614,790,475

-189,330

510,422,201

Saturday

January 1, 2022

614,979,805

-189,330

509,500,794

Friday

December 31, 2021

615,169,135

-189,330

508,579,387

Thursday

December 30, 2021

615,358,465

1,096,200

507,657,980

Wednesday

December 29, 2021

614,262,265

4,670,890

506,313,935

Tuesday

December 28, 2021

609,591,375

1,420

505,013,980

Monday

December 27, 2021

609,589,955

-577,474

503,480,667

Sunday

December 26, 2021

610,167,429

-576,849

502,666,082

Saturday

December 25, 2021

610,744,278

-576,849

501,851,498

Friday

December 24,2021

611,321,127

-576,848

501,036,914

Thursday

December 23, 2021

611,897,975

2,862,430

500,222,330

Wednesday

December 22, 2021

609,035,545

4,726,250

499,013,558

Week 1 - 2: January 2, 2022 -- January 15, 2022

Top, top story of the week:

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Natural gas:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Miscellaneous;

A Musical Interlude While I Start "Top Stories Of The Week" -- January 7, 2022

All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down, Nashville Jam

Two DUCs Reported As Completed; XTO Renewed Eight Permits; WPX With One New Permit -- January 7, 2022

Active rigs:

$78.90
1/7/202201/07/202101/07/202001/07/201901/07/2018
Active Rigs3311566454

One new permit:

  • Operator: WPX
  • Field: Mandaree (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • WPX has a permit for a Samuel Packineau well in NWNW 17-149-93, to be sited 1113 FNL and 1231 FWL

Eight permits renewed:

  • XTO: six Hartel permits and two Harley Federal permits, all in McKenzie County; the Hartel permits in SWSW 23-150-98; and the two Harley Federal permits in SESE 15-153-96;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, the Long Creek Unit is tracked here:

  • 36865, 1,536, CLR, LCU Truman 9-23H, Long Creek, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  • 36866, 1,848, CLR, LCU Truman 10-23H1, Long Creek, first production, --; t--; cum --;

Something Fishy In Mt Vernon, NY? -- January 7, 2022

Story: Deer Park, Texas

Something tells me there is more to this story at Hart Energy

Issue:

  • Houston, Texas, oil refinery: the 300,000 b/d Deer Park refinery
  • joint ownership: Royal Dutch Shell / Mexican state oil company: Pemex
  • RDS looking to becoming more green, ESG-focused: wants out of refinery business
  • agrees to sell its stake in this Texas refinery to Pemex
  • who sues to stop this incredibly reasonable business and ESG decision? Two coin-operated laundromats in Mt Vernon, NY
  • a US District Court denied the laundromats' request to stop process

By the way, on another note, Pemex has said that all refined products from this refinery will be exported to Mexico. This seems to be a "closed Pemex" loop: Pemex oil shipped to Deer Park which just happens to be in the US; but all refined products are returned to Mexico.

Story: White House monitoring oil prices very closely; nice video clip. 

Story: Keystone XL workaround -- Canada's oil sands exports to Asia reach record with new link. New link?  Reversal of the nation's biggest pipeline:

Canada’s oil sands producers were able to export a record amount of crude to overseas markets thanks to a new link to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The recent reversal of Marathon Pipe Line Inc.’s Capline pipeline is sending oil sands crude produced in landlocked Alberta to export terminals on Gulf Coast where it can be shipped to other countries. Exports to Asia were at their highest ever, with India the leading destination by far, followed by China and then South Korea, according to oil analytics firm Kpler. The development marks a sea change for Canada’s oil industry.

The country holds the third highest crude reserves in the world, but exports to markets beyond the U.S. have been limited due to a lack of infrastructure.  

Canada has faced severe opposition from activists for building pipelines from the oil sands region to British Columbia’s Pacific Coast. Additionally, the Biden Administration last year blocked the Keystone XL pipeline, effectively shutting Canada’s crude out of the global market.

Shipments of heavy crude jumped to more than 266,000 barrels a day in December after averaging over 180,000 through the year, according to Kpler.  Canadian crude exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged just 25,000 barrels a day in 2018, before rising to average around 70,000 in both 2019 and 2020.

In October, overall Canadian shipments of oil to the U.S. jumped to more than 4 million barrels a day, highest volume since the start of the year thanks in part to the startup of a long-delayed Canadian pipeline.

Much, much more at the link. But shutting down the Keystone XL -- what a doofus.

Story: European energy crisis. 

The Netherlands, this year, may have to double the amount of natural gas it pumps out of a basin subject to earthquakes. Residents angry. To Bloomberg paywall or direct to ABC News with no paywall. Yes, we're talking about the Groningen, a basin we've talked about many times before.

******************************
Time For A Nap

NYC Spot Prices Spiked To $1,280 / MWh -- Road To New England -- ISO NE -- Winter Storm -- Early Afternoon -- January 7, 2022

Updates

Later, 4:32 p.m. CT: link to Reuters. Relatively minor winter storm hits New England; relatively major impact.

Later, 4:24 p.m. CT: thank goodness for expensive Canadian hydroelectricity and CO2 emitting oil from Russia, Trinidad and Tobago:
 



Original Post

Bloomberg paywall:
 

Link here. Graphics:


Boston burning oil and coal to keep the lights on. 

From a reader about an hour ago. I couldn't post it in "real-time": I was out and about. From the reader:

Quick check of ISO site shows $244/Mw spot price, over 1,000 Mw generated from oil, and coal production at ~450 Mw. 
Nuke output is dropping from usual ~3,350 Mw down to <3,300 over past 3 hours. 
There is an FSRU - Floating Storage and Regasification Unit) - docked at the offshore Northeast Gateway Terminal feeding natgas into the system.

The drop in nuclear output could be troubling as, historically, any deviation is normally  accompanied by operational 'issues'. 
Coal output indicates 100% utilization from 2 remaining coal plants. Oil output indicates 100% utilization from Yarmouth oil burner (~600 Mw capacity) and oil burning from dual-fuel gas plants.

Entirety of next week looks to be very cold with Monday through Wednesdsy especially so. 
I will be more closely following these events as 'something' big may be a'brewin'.
A follow-up from the reader:
Quick follow up  ... 
Nuke output has reversed and is starting to increase. 
The drop may have been related to transmission issues (wires down) and not the plant itself  as there is a big storm currently in that area. 
It will be interesting to see how well the oil stocks hold up in the coming days if high a high consumption rate continues.

They're noticing it over on twitter also, suggesting that electricity prices are surging from Virginia north to Maine. 

BL-Frisinger -- Beaver Lodge -- Hess

The wells:

  • 21944, see below
  • 37128, 2833H-2, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 81K 11/21; best month, 31K 7/21;
  • 37129, 2833H-3, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 85K 11/21; best month, 28K 7/21;
  • 37130, 2833H-4, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 78K 11/21; best month, 35K 7/21;
  • 37131, 2833H0-5PNC,
  • 37132, LE, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 123K 11/21; best month 22K 7/21;

Parent well:

  • 21944, 343, Hess, BL-Frisinger-156-95-2833H-1, Beaver Lodge, t11/12; cum 106K 11/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202127121911872668194219420
BAKKEN10-2021104282434822562560
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-2021151792351963763760
BAKKEN4-2021304254643058548540
BAKKEN3-2021314234413458998990
BAKKEN2-2021284084872948008000
BAKKEN1-2021314544823159099090

Ten Energy Myths -- Re-Evaluated -- Brian Gitt -- January 7, 2022

Link here.

Analysts With Egg On Face -- Jobs Report -- December, 2021

 Before announcement:

  • Consensus: 422,000 jobs added
  • Liesman: could be slightly higher.  
  • U of M, Betsey Stevenson: lots of talking but doesn't say anything; appears to agree with consensus but lots of waffling;
  • Cato Institute, Tyler Goodspeed: agrees with consensus
  • Gabriela Santos, JPM: tick down in unemployment rate by one-tenth; 400,000; strong month for wage growth, 0.4% m/m translating to 0.1% y/y; Fed watching wage inflation closely
  • all agree: Omicrom -- not a big factor for the December, 2021, data
    ten-year Treasury 1.75%

After the announcement:

  • And the result: wow, a huge, huge, miss -- 199,000 jobs added.
  • Stevenson: says this doesn't make sense --
    • one survey: 600,000 folks found jobs (household survey)
    • another survey: only 200,000 jobs added (ADP)
    • what explains the discrepancy? Self-employment, is Stevenson's answer

Dow: turns strong green. Then within minutes, Dow goes negative.

Unemployment: wow, wow, wow -- drops to 3.9% from 4.2% -- this is going to be the headline

Participation rate: unchanged over the month. Tight labor market. Four million jobs short. 

Liesman has it exactly right: "You can look at all the numbers but at the end of the day, all that matters -- the unemployment number." And that decrease from 4.2% to 3.9% in today's report is astounding -- suggests how tight the labor market really is. 

When I was interested in learning about "unemployment" some years ago, bottom line: until goalposts were moved by various political entities, an unemployment rate of 4% was considered "full employment."

BLS numbers: are very slow in getting the numbers -- past revisions suggest it's a "counting problem."

Fifteen minutes after announcement: Dow down 50 points -- market opens in 45 minutes. 

New hour on CNBC: Jim Cramer's take --

  • noted that many folks lost jobs because employers shut down; couldn't stay in business due to Omicron
  • Jay Powell, what will he do? Cramer: all my friends have Omicron; all my buddies have Omicron; everybody has Omicron. We have to wait (on raising rates). Betsy Quick agrees -- fed rate raises -- maybe not so fast.
  • Omicron: "everybody's got it."
  • Cramer: with that, how can Jay Powell 'take action'

Bottom line: based on this report, it's going to be very difficult for the Fed to raise rates in March, just two months from now.

  • "everyone has Omicron"
  • jobs miss was huge
  • vs unemployment rate down to 3.9% driving wage inflation (not transitory)

INYMI: US Energy Dependence To US Energy Independence And Back Again -- January 7, 2022

This article was linked a couple of days ago. Well worth reading. This blew me away, considering the source and the breadth of the article:

The key to achieving energy independence was fracking. This new technology delivered what might be called “the energy independence surprise.”

This article was published summer, 2020. My,  how things have changed.

In the summer of 2020, the writer suggests the US went from energy independence back to energy dependence (of course, that was wrong, too) but now, just one year later, it's clear that the US has moved to energy dominance.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst; 2022 Outlook For The Permian -- RBN Energy -- January 7, 2022

Japan: at crisis. Energy at 97% utilization. Any glitch ... S&P Global

Europe: link to Javier Blas --

  • January, 2022: "Absolute emergency."
  • September, 2021: "No need to panic."
  • we all saw it coming.

Mexico: implications of a full Mexican export ban. Mexican production / exports. Could one say production is about 8 million bopd and exports are slightly under 2 million bopd. Doesn't that sound tectonic -- taking 2 million bopd off the North American market over the next two years? Short term winners? Canada and the Permian?

South America: Brazil -- what global warming emergency? Say what? New law passed granting 15-year extension of a subsidy for coal. Link here.

US shale: at close of current price, the average Canadian energy company could privatize and pay off all of its debt in just 4.4 years with free cash flow. Let's doe the math on CLR and EOG. Link here

And now, you are caught up.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$80.05
1/7/202201/07/202101/07/202001/07/201901/07/2018
Active Rigs3411566454

Friday, January 7, 2022:

  • 37261, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9H, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 55K 11/21;
  • 37130, conf, Hess, BL-Frisinger-156-95-2833H-4, Beaver Lodge, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 90K 11/21;

Thursday, January 6, 2022:

  • 37235, conf,  Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-24C-13-7B, Otter, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 41K 11/21;
  • 37001, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 6-22H, Long Creek, no production data,

RBN Energy: the 2022 outlook is bright for our favorite US basin. Archived.

You can count on certain things this time of year. Alabama is in the hunt for a college football national championship, there’s fresh powder somewhere in the Rockies, it’s mostly still shorts weather in Houston, and there’s a catchy new country song ripe for blog titles. January also brings some unknowns, with pundits throwing out various scenarios for stock and commodity markets, as well as the more recent trend in postulating the outcomes of the latest COVID variant. When it comes to the U.S. onshore oil and natural gas markets, the Permian continues to be old reliable, especially with crude north of $70/bbl and natural gas prices flirting with $4/MMBtu. 
There’s a lot we can’t predict about the year ahead (like the NCAA football championship, though this writer, at least, is pulling for Georgia next week), but our view of Permian production growth hasn’t changed. In today’s blog, we provide this year’s outlook for Permian crude oil and natural gas markets.

Oasis Finds Another Sweet Spot -- Willow Creek -- January 7, 2022

Several wells in process of being drilled / completed in Willow Creek oil field according to NDIC.

One example.

The well:

  • 37916, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 5BR, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20215544227506
10-2021117551845

As folks know, Oasis was a Bakken pure play in the beginning but then acquired acreage in the Permian. But after a few years in the Permian, Oasis left the Permian and returned to the Bakken, as a pure play, again. 

The dots are starting to connect. I would love to explain what I mean but I would get too much push back and I don't need it. So I'll let it go. 

I'm too tired to do any more tonight, but if I remember, I'll post the graphics of this area: incredible how much activity there is about ten miles southeast of Williston, on the north side of the river.

Statue of a fool:

Statue of a Fool, RVS and Jack Greene

This may simply be the best "find" I've had today. I vividly remember the night in 1969 driving on US Highway 2 west of Williston, on the bypass, with my mom, listening to RVS on the radio. 

Jack Greene, wiki entry:

Jack Henry Greene, January 7, 1930 – March 14, 2013, was an American country musician. 
Nicknamed the "Jolly Greene Giant" due to his height and deep voice, Greene was a long time member of the Grand Ole Opry. 
A three-time Grammy Award nominee, Greene is best known for his 1966 hit, "There Goes My Everything." The song dominated the country music charts for nearly two months in 1967 and earned Greene "Male Vocalist of the Year," "Single of the Year," "Album of the Year," and "Song of the Year" honors from the Country Music Association.
Greene had a total of five #1 country hits and three others that reached the top ten. Billboard magazine named Greene one of the Top 100 "Most Played Artists."

And then YouTube led me to this:

You Win Again, Jerry Lee Lewis

An Oasis Well With A 15x Jump In Production -- January 7, 2022

The well:

  • 21667, 3,285, Oasis, Cliff 52000 14-5H, Camp, t3/12; cum 390K 11/21; full production; 14,395 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 25,000 bbls crude oil over 30 days, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021171439513858334022590143427881
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000220
BAKKEN8-202123968923687205520088
BAKKEN7-20213012411570745298329340
BAKKEN6-20213015961623873387335730

Three newly completed wells in the immediate area:

  • 38008, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 6B, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20213384937219
10-20212751529209
  • 34222, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 4B, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20213268234431
10-20211952521265
  • 37266, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 5B, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20213123633305
10-20212395524946