Thursday, April 21, 2016

Rocky Ridge-Fritz 1 Permitted For Re-Entry -- April 21, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2991184185210

Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
  • 31005, 1,957, QEP, Henderson 36-25-35-26T2H, Three Forks 2nd Bench, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, Grail, t11/5; cum 25K after 46 days;
  • 31006, 1,906, QEP, Henderson 36-25-35-26BH, 48 stages, 9.7 million lbs, Grail, t11/15; cum 27K after 49 days;
  • 31007, 2,557, QEP, Henderson 1-12-2-11BH, Grail, 48 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t11/15; cum 33K after 51 days;
  • 31008, 2,725, QEP, Henderson 1-12-2-11T2H, Grail, Three Forks 2nd Bench, 49 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t11/15; cum 41K after 47 days;
  • 31560, 1,115, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-10, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
  • 31680, SI/NC, SM Energy, no production data,
  • 31908, SI/NC, Statoil, no production data,
  • 32052, SI/NC, Enerplus, no production data,
Three (3) new permits --
  • Operator: WPX
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Seven (7) permits renewed --
  • Oasis (6), six Lewis Federal permit in McKenzie County
  • Crescent Point Energy, one CPEC Elgaard permit in Divide County
Whiting and Denbury each canceled on permit, a BSMU permit in Billings County and a CHSU permit in Bowman County, respectively.

Operator transfer, from Fidelity to Scout Energy Management, LLC, about 64 wells, all in Bowman County; earliest permit number 15148; oldest permit number 17250, all with legal names taht begin with "NDBIS..."

This permitted for re-entry:
  • 25347, back on confidential status, Williston Exploration, Rocky Ridge-Fritz 1, 
For other Rocky Ridge-Fritz 1 well posts:
Two (2) producing wells completed:
  • 30194, 352, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3GXH, Lindahl, t3/16; cum --
  • 31430, 1,579, EOG, Liberty 44-1423H, Parshall, ICO, t3/16; cum --; look how fast they drill wells in the Bakken these days; this well was spud on September 5, 2015; then the big rig (H&P 524) began drilling October 1, 2015; cease drilling on October 8, seven days; the curve was started on the 4th; gas ranged from 103 to 11,275 units;

Nothing About The Bakken: Wind Farms And Eagles Officially Off My Radar Scope; Environmentalists Not Worried, Why Should I? -- April 21, 2016

ObamaCare -- it's in better shape than "you" think; and it's here to stay. This is why I would advise GOP to stay as far away from ObamaCare as possible. For the GOP, it's a win-win. If ObamaCare succeeds, the GOP can move on to other issues; health care has always been a sticky wicket; everyone would win if any health care system succeeds. If ObamaCare fails, it will fail on its own; it doesn't need the assistance of GOP. I would never support Ted Cruz on his objective to "repeal" ObamaCare ("naive"). I won't support Trump for other reasons.

But then this, from Fiscal Times: ObamaCare is in such great shape, that huge premium increases are forecast for 2017.
Amid rising drug and health care costs and roiling market dynamics, the spokesperson for the nation’s health insurers is predicting substantial increases next year in Obamacare premiums and related costs.
Without venturing a specific percentage increase, Marilyn Tavenner, the president and CEO of America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), said in an interview with Morning Consult that the culmination of market shifts and rising health care costs will force stark increases in health insurance rates in the coming year.
“I’ve been asked, what are the premiums going to look like?” she said. “I don’t know because it also varies by state, market, even within markets. But I think the overall trend is going to be higher than we saw previous years. That’s my big prediction.”
If Tavenner is right, Obamacare will jump dramatically—last year’s premium for the popular silver-level plan surged 11 percent on average. Although Tavenner didn’t mention deductibles, in 2016, some states saw jumps of 76 percent, while the average deductible for a 27-year-old male on a silver plan was 8 percent.
Bureaucratic Math
1/2 = One-Half

By cutting the number of wind turbines in half, the number-crunchers estimate the number of bald eagles killed annually would also be cut in half. A huge thank you to Don for noting this. Neither of us can make this stuff up. Here it is, in their own words:
Chokecherry and Sierra Madre, the largest onshore wind farm planned in the United States, would annually kill 10 to 14 golden eagles, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service projected in a draft environmental study released Wednesday.
That figure represents a substantial reduction from the 46 to 64 golden eagle fatalities estimated by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management in 2012.
Federal officials attributed the decline to several factors. The permit application submitted by the project’s developer, Power Company of Wyoming, only considers the 500 turbines proposed in the project’s first phase. A second phase calls for an additional 500 turbines.
I used to worry about the plight of the golden eagle. No more. It seems there are way more golden eagles than anyone thought possible; so many that killing upwards of a 100 eagles every year by one or two wind farms is no big deal in the eyes of the Federal government.

Wind farms and the plight of eagles: another issue off my radar scope. 

But the developers are getting clever. Estimate a huge annual kill, and then dial that number back and everyone moves on.

Minnesota Should Start Burning Their Forests -- Amy Klobucher (D-MN)
Somehow, Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral

The first place to start cutting down those beautiful trees: where the new huge transmission line will be sited.

Link here.

Off The Net For Awhile -- Going Biking -- April 21, 2016; Wind Generation Growth Slowed In 2015 As Wind Speeds Declined -- Was This Predicted By The Warmists? Enquiring Minds Want To Know; I Guess This Is Why It's Called "Unreliable" Energy

Bill Walton: It's All About The Bike.
But I don’t think I’ve talked to someone who loves to ride a bicycle as much as Bill Walton.
“I love to ride all day,” Walton told me on a recent afternoon, in a telephone interview. “My dream is to do 100 miles a day. Get up, have breakfast, get going, ride all day, stop for lunch, ride, come home, take a swim, take a Jacuzzi, have a hot shower, have dinner, go to bed, get up and do it again, day after day.”
You see what I mean.
 And now this:

But before we go, a couple of Bakken economy stories.

First, from The Williston Herald:
Mercy Medical Center (MMC) formally announced on Tuesday that it is joining to a regional healthcare system and will unite with nine healthcare facilities in central and western North Dakota.
CHI Mercy Medical Center in Williston, CHI St. Joseph’s Health in Dickinson, CHI Carrington Health in Carrington, CHI Mercy Hospital in Devil’s Lake and CHI St. Alexius Health in Bismarck, Garrison, Turtle Lake, Minot, Mandan, and Washburn will be united under one name, CHI St. Alexius Health.
Largest biker bar to re-open -- in time for next summer's Sturgis rally:
A popular Sturgis bar that burned down after last year’s 75th anniversary of the town’s rally will be rebuilt and moved after a major expansion is planned.
The new location will be a 600-acre site five miles from the original bar at the former Broken Spoke campground near the base of Bear Butte.
Wind Slows

April 25, 2016: same story reported in
  • U.S. wind energy generation rose to 191 TWh in 2015, accounting for 4.7% of the country’s electricity. That was an increase on the 4.4% wind contributed to U.S. power in 2014 but, due to weaker winds, it was only a 5.1% increase on 2014’s total TWh, the smallest increase in wind’s output since 1999.
  • Weather patterns in the Western U.S. caused lower wind speeds and decreased wind production in the first half of 2015, though the same weather patterns caused the stronger winds in the central U.S. that were the basis for major wind output growth in that region.
  • U.S. wind’s cumulative installed capacity reached 73 GW in 2015. New wind capacity grew by 8.1 GW, a 12.9% gain, and wind led all resources in new installed capacity for the year, accounting for 41% of new U.S. megawatts. Wind was second only to hydropower in TWh of generation from renewable sources.
Original Post
Wind speeds slowing down? Was this predicted by the warmists? There seems to be absolutely no correlation between wind capacity growth and wind energy generation growth -- every time you look more closely at intermittent energy you find another reason not to like it.....just staying....

Link here.

Wow, capacity increased significantly last year (see below) while actual generation slowed considerably. Interesting, huh? That would be like drilling more oil wells and coming up with less oil, I suppose.

EPA Chief admits: ‘I’m not disagreeing’ states with climate regs have ‘triple’ the electric rate. Link here.
Pointing out the high costs of electricity in states that have implemented climate regulations similar to EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan, Senator Bill Cassidy tells EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, “states that emit the most carbon have the lowest energy costs [while those] that emit the least have the highest — in some cases triple…” Administrator McCarthy responds, “I guess I’m not disagreeing with your– the facts that you’ve outlined them just there.”
SENATOR CASSIDY: “In a previous conversation we’ve had, I’ve made the point that if the Clean Power Plant [sic] rule raises energy costs, that will put our economy at a economic disadvantage relative to countries overseas which frankly will continue to pollute or emit carbon. Now, we wanted to test this hypothesis, so we took all the states in the United States, and we looked at those which have the easiest compliance with the Clean Power Plant [sic] rule, i.e. they currently emit the less [sic], and those states that are going to have the hardest time, they emit the most. And, turns out there is kind of an inverse correlation with electricity costs. So, if you look at RGGI states for example, the Northeast, they have electricity costs that are three times higher than that for a state like Montana.”
ADMINISTRATOR MCCARTHY: “Mmmhmm (affirmative).”
SENATOR CASSIDY: “Now, I think I remember you saying, ‘No, it’s possible to lower emissions without raising the costs’, but I’ll just say it, baseline, these states which have the lowest emissions of carbon already have triple the cost of their electricity.”

Thursday, April 21, 2016; Huge New Amazon Fulfillment Center Planned North Of Ft Worth -- Near Texas Motor Speedway

Stock market blues? One could have bought a share of Southwest Airlines (LUV) for less than $10 back in 2012; today, LUV is trading near $50. 

First time unemployment claims: down 6,000. Forecast: 265,000 (previous 253,000). Actual: 247,000. Forecast was for a 12,000 increase; in fact, dropped 6,000. Huge miss by analysts? Four-week rolling average: 260,500. This is a four-decade low.


Gartman anxiety: Uber overtakes rental cars among business travelers. My son-in-law regularly routinely uses Uber, and he travels a lot. Gartman: Big Oil's biggest fear -- Uber.


GM's profits doubles. Link over at the WSJ. Wasn't there a report recently that GM won't be paying federal income taxes for decades (an old link, but I thought there was a more recent story also):
The tax benefit stems from so-called tax-loss carry-forwards and other provisions, which allow companies to use losses in prior years and costs related to pensions and other expenses to shield profits from U.S. taxes for up to 20 years. In GM's case, the losses stem from years prior to when GM entered bankruptcy.
The gift that keeps on giving.


Amazon to add 1,000 jobs at Dallas fulfillment center. Dallas Morning News is reporting: said it’s planning a sixth Texas fulfillment center and its fourth in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.The newest facility will be in Fort Worth at 15201 Heritage Parkway. Amazon already has one fulfillment center that opened in 2013 nearby in Haslet. 
The 1 million-square-foot center will process and ship smaller merchandise orders such as books, electronics and toys. It’s being developed by Trammell Crow Co. and Prudential.
Amazon said the new building will employ 1,000 people. The company already has more than 8,000 full-time hourly employees in Texas.
The Seattle-based online retailer’s other Texas fulfillment centers are in Coppell, southern Dallas and Schertz, which is near San Antonio. A fifth location is under construction in San Marcos.
Coppell is on the north side of the DFW airport. The new site is along 35W, near the I-35W- SH114 interchange, and just south of the Texas Motor Speedway.

Bottom line: three (3) in the DFW metroplex area; three (3) in the San Antonio area. None in Houston; none in west Texas.


KMI shelves $3 billion natural gas pipeline through Massachsetts, New Hampshire; didn't get the necessary commitments. AP is reporting:
The decision also raises more questions for Massachusetts' energy future, coming on the heels of the announcement to shutter the Pilgrim nuclear power plant in May 2019.
Jim Roche, president of the Business and Industry Association of New Hampshire, said Kinder Morgan's decision could put pressure on regulators to approve other infrastructure projects to help ease electricity prices in New Hampshire and New England.
Those energy prices are among the highest in the U.S.
Not to worry. Consolidated Edison and Crestwood Equity Partners have entered into an agreement to form Stagecoach Gas Services for the northeast:
ConEd to purchase a 50 percent stake in a new entity that will hold Crestwood Equity Partners LP's natural gas pipeline and storage business for $975 million.
The joint venture will own natural gas pipelines and storage facilities that provide a critical link between natural gas fields and Northeast U.S. markets.
The new entity, Stagecoach Gas Services LLC, will have an implied market value of about $2 billion, the companies said in a statement.
Not to worry. GE will increase capacity in Connecticut:
General Electric Co. is poised to announce a deal to upgrade a U.S. power plant with its newest gas turbine and equipment from the recently acquired Alstom energy business.
Under the latest agreement, GE will supply one HA, a steam turbine and associated equipment to expand the Bridgeport Harbor Generating Station in Connecticut.
The upgraded plant, which will be able to supply enough energy to power almost 500,000 homes, is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2019, GE said.
OPEC might discuss a production freeze at the June meeting.
 Active rigs:

Active Rigs2891184185210

RBN Energy: update on the Panama Canal.

GDP Now: no change; 1Q16 GDP forecast -- 0.3%.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.3 percent on April 19, unchanged from April 13. After last Thursday's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked up from 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent.
After this morning's report on new residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the forecast for real residential investment growth declined from 9.0 percent to 8.5 percent.
Sun Edison one big mess.
The deal-making frenzy that hastened SunEdison Inc. ’s collapse could continue to cause problems for the solar-power company during any bankruptcy.
Potential legal damages stemming from deals SunEdison failed to close while its finances were deteriorating could total hundreds of millions of dollars, according to court filings and people familiar with the deals. Litigation over the failed deals could add to the company’s already lengthy list of creditors and possibly extend to its publicly traded subsidiaries.
SunEdison, once a darling of the clean-power industry, has lost 99% of its market value since last summer and is working with advisers on a chapter 11 filing. The company owes creditors nearly $10 billion, according to regulatory filings.
SunEdison’s swift rise and fall, chronicled in a Wall Street Journal article last week, was fueled by its appetite for takeovers and the availability of cheap money from Wall Street to finance them. When that financing dried up during a volatile period in the markets and a slide in oil prices, SunEdison backed out of several transactions.
When The Minivan Comes Without a Booster Seat