Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Blogging; Bailing Hay To Feed Sheep For the Coyotes To Eat

Because I am now back to taking care of our granddaughters full time, my pattern of blogging has changed a big. I am able to post first thing in the morning, uninterrupted, but then almost nothing all day long, until later in the evening.

It is impossible to keep up with all the earnings reports during earnings season, even during the best of times, but when devoting quality time to a seven-year-old and a ten-year-old, it makes it even more difficult. So, links to earnings will be hit and miss. Let me know if I miss anything really important.

I did miss the new high for the Dow today; I find that incredible. I guess all the speeches by Mr Obama on his plans to help the rich and the poor (while pretty much hammering the middle class) seems to be helping the market. The rich should get a break with the 28% corporate tax and the poor will get ... well, whatever they ever get. I guess in this case, ObamaCare.

And now, even after that news about the Dow today, I see futures are up huge right now. Of course, I doubt that will last, but it is interesting to say the least.

Part of the reason, of course, is because analysts now see the Great Recession was never as bad as the GOP made it out to be. It was actually pretty mild, I guess, as recessions go. Thank goodness for all that stimulus money. And, of course, re-calculating GDP probably helped a lot, also. It's nice to be able to re-write history, especially while history is still being made. There's a great western song with the hook, "a legend in his own time."

But "it's hard to be humble" is even better.

It's Hard To Be Humble, Mac Davis

Seriously, back to the Bakken. Have you all seen the incredible wells EOG is reporting? If this is due to their new completion technique, things are going to be changing in the Bakken. Can you say "ceramics"? You may not have to next year.

EOG will report another well with 100,000 bbls of oil in the first three or four months of production. The Oil Drum's last post is supposedly today or tomorrow. Fitting.

People still don't understand the flaring issue in the Bakken. Dry natural gas production in the Bakken is like GM's problem with the Volt. GM loses about $5,000 on every Volt they sell, but they feel good about selling 'em. Bakken operators can sell natural gas for $3.00/unit (whatever a standard unit of natural gas is). Unfortunately it costs an operator $5.00/unit to hook up the natural gas pipeline (running a single pipeline a gazillion miles to a remote well, and then selling it ONEOK for processing before it can be put in the national pipeline, to be sold at a loss (again, we are talking about dry natural gas, not liquids; that's another story. Remember, natural gas cannot simply be put into a pipeline like crude oil can.).

This all reminds me of a great little book that I bought (and read) many years ago: Today I Bailed Some Hay to Feed the Sheep the Coyotes Eat.

I would continue, but I'm at the end of my battery -- I forgot to keep it charged during the day -- and I don't have my charger with me.

Good luck to all.  Listen to Mac Davis at the video above.

This Is Really Bad News For Mr Obama's Legacy; Happy Days Are Here Again

The Wall Street Journal is reporting the Great Recession was not all that bad. Like the government actions after the 2010 spill in the Gulf of Mexico, one wonders if government actions actually made things worse in the long run?
The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger pace in 2012 than previously measured and the great recession was less severe, new data from the Commerce Department shows.
The country’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at a 2.8% pace last year versus a previous estimate of 2.2%, due to periodic revisions released Wednesday by the agency’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The figures also show the 2007 to 2009 recession was less severe than previously thought, with the economy shrinking at an average annual 2.9% pace, compared with the previously reported 3.2% contraction. The recession stretched, officially, from December 2007 through June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines the widely accepted benchmarks for U.S. business cycles.
Happy days are here again.

Maybe that's why Dow futures look to stun tomorrow. 

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Thursday; EOG Has Another Incredible Well; Oasis Has A Nice Well

If these phenomenal EOG wells are the result of their new completion techniques, this will be very, very interesting.
  • 20633, 1,236, EOG, Fertile 53-3024H, Parshall, t2/13; cum 405K 7/17;
  • 22213, 1,732, WPX, George Evans 14-23HD, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 296K 7/17;
  • 23531, 1,597, Oasis, K A Sutton Federal 5300 24-15T, Willow Creek, t3/13; cum 175K 7/17;
  • 24639, SI/NC, Thunderbird Resources LP/GMX Resources, Fairfield State 21-16-2H, Whitetail/St Demetrius, no data

20633, see above, EOG, Fertile 53-3024H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23531, see below, Oasis, K A Sutton Federal 5300 24-15T, Willow Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Dow Futures Look Awesome

Because I don't have television in the new apartment, I missed this: I guess the Dow hit a new all-time high today.

Futures don't mean squat, but even with that all-time high today, I see Dow futures are up an incredible 67 points right now, and oil is up another 50 cents, about $105.50. I sure hope President O'Bama is not scheduled to speak tomorrow. Well, actually I do. I am a long-term investor and all my dividends are automatically reinvested. I prefer a falling market some days. Smile.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you might have read here.

This Has To Be One Of The Longest Stretches With WTI > $100 In Quite Some Time; We Will Miss The Oil Drum

It is amazing what happens when the industry alleviates the choke point at Cushing.

I believe July 31, 2013, was supposed to be the last day for The Oil Drum, the peak oil web site but there were a heck of a lot of articles posted at that site today, including:
  • British gas profits during winter chill
  • Canada's economy expands in May as retail offsets oil
  • Bakken shale will keep OPEC on its toes
  • Small firms, not big guns drive Bakken shale
  • Iraq headed for first annual drop in oil output in three years (this is huge, folks)
  • "Why the peak oilers are still right"
  • Three (3) reasons peak oil might not be such a big deal -- LOL
  • Lawyer who sued Chevron in Ecuador is now being sued by Chevron
  • England looking more and more that it will frack
  • Radioactive Japanese sea -- this will never end
By the way, I missed this one from The Oil Drum from two days ago, an update of the "Red Queen." Lots of graphs. My hunch is two people will read the entire essay. One person might understand it. I think this question and the author's reply was priceless.  

The question:
Do you have any numbers on how many wells have already been plugged and abandoned in the Bakken Play since 2008?
The answer:
As of now I do not have data on any number of wells plugged and abandoned in Bakken since 2008.
Of the wells I studied with full time series that started as from January 2010, I found no well getting plugged and abandoned as of May 2013.
The fact is, almost NO Bakken wells have been plugged and abandoned. Some weeks ago I looked at the first several hundred Bakken wells looking for plugged and abandoned wells and quit that exercise because it became pointless. 

For all his data and all his analysis, I find it incredible, this analyst did not even have such basic information as that -- how many Bakken wells that have been plugged and abandoned. And if he ever posts that data, he has to separate out those that were never drilled to planned total depth, such as the Oasis well reported this month that was drilled to 3,000; developed problems, and they simply cut their losses, plugged and abandoned it, and moved on. But it will be called a plugged and abandoned Bakken well, when in fact, it wasn't. It wasn't even a well. It was a shallow hole.

Wow, This Is Cool....And Something Tells Me The Mainstream Media Has Not Said A Word

ClimateDepot is reporting:
  • 1,122 record cold temps in the U.S. in one week 
  • July in the USA ends on a frigid note as record cold outpaces warmth nearly 10 to 1 
  • 71% of he US below normal temperature in 2013 
  • South America in massive deep freeze 
Wow, global warming ended 15 years ago ("paused" as the activist scientists like to put it) but now it appears we aren't even pausing; we're actually getting cooler. 

I do not recall the "mainstream media" mentioning that South America was in a massive deep freeze.

Note the "global warming" tag has moved to the "new" climate year, 2013 - 2014.

Greece Is Playing The EU; This Really Is Quite Incredible: IMF: Greek Bailout Not Big Enough, Needs Another $14.6 Billion By End of 2015.

Sounds a lot like Mr O'Bama; never enough money.

And the outlook could be even worse -- if the IMF/Greece assumptions are too optimistic.

Well, you know that will happen. You really believe that Greece will meet targets by 2015. LOL.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Greece faces an additional financing shortfall of nearly €11 billion ($14.6 billion) by the end of 2015, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, warning that the gap could be bigger if growth falls short of estimates.
That figure is higher than earlier euro-zone projections, and combined with the IMF's estimate of the amount of debt relief Athens needs, could force Europe to cover any extra financing needed to keep Greece afloat, including potential write-offs of rescue loans extended to Greece over the past three years, in order to make the country's debt load sustainable.
That puts the IMF at odds with the euro zone's strongest member, Germany, where the government is avoiding talk of debt reductions and new Greek loans ahead of elections in September.
But if the Germans don't mind paying for the Greeks and their vacations, that's fine with me; I have no dog in this fight. This is simply here for archival purposes.

Greek GDP: $290 billion (2011) and probably less now. Several US companies have market caps greater than Greek's GDP, including General Electric at $250 billion.

What an incredible basket case, and the Germans keep paying for this craziness. And the Greeks do this without nuclear missiles, the preferred method for North Koreans to extract concessions from the West.

Montana Completions

From the FairfieldSunTimes:

In Powder River County’s Bell Creek Field, Denbury Onshore, LLC, filed completion reports for three wells, all tapping the Muddy Formation. The BCUD 5614R with a total depth of 4,850 feet; the Bell Creek Consolidated 33-14R with a total depth of 4,765 feet; and, the Bell Creek Consolidated 04-03OW, with a total depth of 2,604 feet. No Initial Potential (IP) numbers were reported.

In Richland County, Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation reported the completion of the Christiansen 34-12-1H. The Bakken well reported an IP of 403 bopd.

In Roosevelt County, Oasis Petroleum North America LLC reported the completion of two Bakken Formation wells.
  • The Disco 2959 13-30H reported an IP of  735 bopd.
  • The Dave T 2958 13-25H reported an IP of 1,361 bopd.
Two completion reports were filed for Teton County wells by Primary Petroleum Company USA, Inc.
  • The Rockport 16-19-27-6HZ tapped the Potlatch Anhydrite
  • The Rockport 14-19-27-6HZ is targeting the Nisku Formation
No IP numbers were reported for the wells.


In Wibaux County’s Pine Field, Denbury Onshore, LLC filed completion reports for four wells, all tapping the Siluro-Ordovician.
  • Unit 22-33 has a total depth of 9,640 feet and reported an IP of 2 bopd (no typo)
  • Unit 24-19 has a total depth of 9,750 feet and reported an IP of 14 bopd (no typo)
  • South Pine Unit 33-30 has a total depth of 9,624 feet and reported an IP of 2 bopd (no typo)
  • Unit 42-31 has a total depth of 9,900 feet and reported an IP of 180 bwpd (no oil) -- no typo.

MDU Earnings: Beat By One Cent

Press release here.
  • Adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents compared to 17 cents last year, 47 percent increase
  • GAAP earnings per share of 24 cents compared to 29 cents last year
  • E&P adjusted earnings improved 66 percent with oil production growth of 37 percent construction business improves earnings 39 percent and reports higher backlog of $1.2 billion
  • natural gas utility sees 14 percent increase in sales
  • electric utility has 4 percent growth in retail sales
  • pipeline and energy services group diesel topping plant construction well underway

Random Note On Ten (10) Oasis Wells Sited In Cottonwood Field, Burke County, 30-158-92

It appears:
  • #19628 is on a single pad.
  • #25900, 25307 - 25310 (five wells) are on one pad.
  • #25723 - 25724 (four wells) are on one pad.
The wells:
  • 19628, 774, Oasis, Paradise 5892 11 -30H, Cottonwood; middle Bakken, t7/11; cum 94K 5/13;
  • 25726, drl, Oasis, Mahaila 5892 21-30H; Enget Lake; middle Bakken
  • 25725, drl, Oasis, Jase 5892 21-30T; Enget Lake; Three Forks
  • 25724, drl, Oasis, Barnes 5892 21-30B; Enget Lake; middle Bakken
  • 25723, drl, Oasis, Rivera 5892 21-30T; Enget Lake; Three Forks
  • 25310, drl, Oasis, Harvey 5892 21-30B; Cottonwood; middle Bakken
  • 25309, drl, Oasis, Gasser 5892 21-30T; Cottonwood; Three Forks
  • 25308, drl, Oasis, Norris 5892 21-30B; Cottonwood; middle Bakken
  • 25307: DRY, Oasis, Cottle 5892 21-30X; Cottonwood; Three Forks (the well file says "DRY" for #25307); 
  • from the file: A TD of 2,247' was reached yielding unnaceptable displacements from wellhead. The existing hole wasP & A'd with cement to approximately 60'. Oasis Petroleum intends to permanently P&A surface hole by filling the exsting casing to surface cutting casing 3' below grade, and capping the abandoned wellbore.
  • 25900: drl, Oasis, Cottle 5892 21-30T; Cottonwood; Three Forks

The Cottonwood wells will run west to east (30-158-92 -->29-158-92)
The Enget Lake wells will run east to west (30-158-92 -->25-158-93)

Eleven (11) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Rise in price of oil today was impressive. Sweet.

Active rigs: 180

Eleven (11) new permits --
  • Operators: XTO (3), Whiting (2), BR (2), MRO (2), Statoil, QEP
  • Fields: Grinnell (Williams), Camel Butte (McKenzie), St Anthony (Dunn), Moccasin Creek (Dunn), Rosebud (Williams), Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Bakken Excerpt From Hess 2Q13 Earnings Report; Costs Down; Production Up

Results are starting to reflect what we've been saying all along -- costs are decreasing; production is increasing; from the press release:
Bakken: Net production from the Bakken oil shale play averaged 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2013, an increase of 16 percent from the same period last year. Full year Bakken production guidance remains 64,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. During the quarter, Hess brought 42 operated wells on production, bringing the year-to-date total to 72 wells. Drilling and completion costs per operated well averaged $8.4 million in the second quarter of 2013, an improvement of 28 percent versus last year’s second quarter.

Hess Reports Earnings

Press release here:
Hess Corporation today reported net income of $1,431 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. Adjusted earnings, which excludes the gain on sale of our Russian subsidiary and other items affecting comparability, were $520 million or $1.51 per common share. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1,247 million in the second quarter.

Absolutely Amazing How Storage Can Increase So Quickly At Cushing -- CBR And New Pipelines

EIA oil atats: crude dn 400k b, but Cushing dn 1.9 mil b. Distillates down 500k, gasoline up 800k. Runs dn 1 pct point to 91.3%.

Price of oil: up 50 cents; reversing downward trend.

Trending today:
  • GDP not a good number, though it could have been worse
  • China says they will keep their economy humming 
  • everything points to continued Fed stimulus
  • market responds - now up almost 100 points

An Inconvenient Truth

Three days ago I posted: the gap will widen.

And now confirms:
The president has been decrying the growing gap between rich and poor in the U.S. to help sell his retread tax-and-spend proposals. But those policies have already produced record levels of income inequality.
In his speech in Illinois last week, and at events since, Obama described income inequality in the starkest terms. "This growing inequality is morally wrong," he said, and "undermines the very essence of America."
To be sure, income inequality is a standard trope for liberals, who always use it to advocate more wealth redistribution.
And Obama's latest focus neatly coincides with his plans to push for more federal spending and taxes on the "rich" in coming budget battles.
But what Obama conveniently leaves out of his sermons is that income inequality has grown faster on his watch than any time in the past two decades, at least.
For investors, Mr O'Bama is the gift that keeps on giving. 

Incredible How Little Facts Are Omitted By Mainstream Media

This was the headline today: GDP surges! Up 1.7% from last month's dismal 1.1%.

In fact, last month's initial reading was 1.8%. Had that remained unchanged, today's GDP would have actually shown a decline in GDP from 1.8% to 1.7%.

But, the revised GDP for last month was a dismal 1.1%.

It will be interesting to see the revised GDP number next month, and how it is reported.

Two quarters of less than 2% growth suggests movement toward a recession.

Tomorrow we will see the fictional weekly jobless report.

And Friday, the equally fictitious monthly unemployment number. I can hardly wait.

As I mentioned to a reader via e-mail, my non-Bakken highlight of the week is seeing how the mainstream media reports the jobless numbers.

I was wondering why the market took off today: the Fed can't use today's numbers to argue for tapering.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The Great Gatsby -- And Where He Is Buried

I always get a kick out of the timing of some posts. Earlier this morning I posted some data regarding the housing needs projection for the Bakken oil patch. I hinted where the data was presented.

Now, a reader sends me a link to an article which provided that answer in a very unexpected way.

At the second link, which is about The Great Gatsby (and still playing in Williston):
My favorite scene in the movie - blink hard and you will miss it - is the scene of the dirt poor life of early 20th century North Dakota that James Gatz came from before he re-styled himself as Jay Gatsby of West Egg on Long Island, New York. The location of Gatsby's boyhood North Dakota upbringing was not an invention of the film, like hip-hop music in the 1920's. It is in the Fitzgerald novel. Fitzgerald himself was from Minnesota where he likely had heard stories of the extreme poverty and brutal climate of western North Dakota.
History teaches that times and fortunes change, and times and fortunes have changed a lot in North Dakota. Recently, at the University Club in downtown Chicago, more than a dozen North Dakota business leaders spoke at the Opportunities in North Dakota and the Bakken Summit. Topics included oil and gas, real estate, and service businesses. Wow, Mr Gatsby, if you could see North Dakota now.
This is a must-read article. Of course, I wouldn't post anything about the Bakken that isn't a must-read, would I?

A big "thank you" to the reader for sending me this link/story. I had seen the headline earlier but had not visited the site until I got that note.

A Note To The Granddaughters

By the way, I don't recall reading The Great Gatsby in high school or college. I read it for the first time about three years ago. In fact, I read it a couple of times; I don't think I really "got it" the first time I read it. I was always fascinated by "West Egg." Oh, yes, that reminds me. I was in my F. Scott Fitzgerald phase. I was trying to remember why I would have read The Great Gatsby. But that was it. I was in my F. Scott Fitzgerald phase, reading bios of him and Zelda. I think I've talked about Zelda before on this blog. Oh, yes. Here it is. I won't repeat.

For those who are interested in a bit of trivia, here's an interesting story on where F. Scott Fitzgerald is buried:
F. Scott Fitzgerald, the author of The Great Gatsby, was born in St. Paul, Minn.; he's associated with that city, as well as Paris, the Riviera and New York. But he's buried in Rockville, Md., outside Washington, D.C., next to a highway between strip malls and train tracks.
At the time of his death, Fitzgerald considered himself a failure. After the Great Depression, readers and publishers were no longer interested in tales of the Jazz Age, and he was hard-pressed to find his novels on bookstore shelves.
When he died unexpectedly before Christmas in 1940, Fitzgerald's wife and his lawyer arranged for his body to be sent from California to Maryland, to be buried next to his father in a family plot at St. Mary's Catholic Church.

Wednesday Morning Links, News, And Views -- Part II -- More Evidence Of Global Warming -- Economy At "Stall Speed" And Not Responding -- One Million Fewer People Will Get Employer-Health Insurance In 2013 -- Best Laptop For College-Bound Student: MacBook Air

Evidence of more global warming, I guess:
Wisconsin Energy beats by $0.06, beats on revs: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.52 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.46; revenues rose 7.2% year/year to $1.01 bln vs the $0.96 bln consensus.
Strong natural gas sales during a cooler than normal spring and the impact of the company's share repurchase program were positive factors contributing to our solid results for this year's second quarter," said Gale Klappa, chairman, president and chief executive officer. "A cool June, however, significantly reduced demand for air conditioning across the region," Klappa added. "By comparison, June temperatures last year were much warmer than normal."
And that wasn't a "one-off." Here at the WSJ's "Heard on the Street":
It just isn't a great summer for natural-gas bulls. For starters, it isn't hot enough. This week is typically among the hottest of the year, but forecasts suggest it will be 18% cooler than normal in the U.S., according to analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
WSJ Links

Walter Mossberg compares Google's new Chromecast with Apple TV.  Bottom line:
If you're an all-Apple household with $99 to spare, AirPlay and Apple TV work great. But, if you want a less costly solution that works with all your devices across platforms, and can wait while Google gradually gets more apps to adopt it, Chromecast is a winner.
What's the best laptop for a college-bound student? Q&A from Walter Mossberg:
Based on your criteria, I'd recommend, without hesitation, the latest edition of Apple's MacBook Air, which is light, sturdy, thin, fast and gets over 10 hours of battery life on a single charge.
Maybe no recession, but certainly at stall speed
Here is the stuff of nightmares: You are piloting a plane that is losing altitude and not responding.
As the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting Wednesday, it may be presented with fresh data hinting at such a calamity for the U.S. economy. First-class passengers like Mr. Stock Market appear blithely unaware as they enjoy a complimentary beverage. Those crammed in coach are starting to feel some bumps.
The economy isn't in a recession, but it will probably remain near what economists call "stall speed" following Wednesday's report on second-quarter gross domestic product. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires see annualized growth of just 0.9%—tied for the second-lowest level of the expansion.
That follows growth of 1.8% and 0.4% in the previous two quarters. Growth below 2% for multiple quarters is thought to heighten the risk of recession.
President O'Bama offers deal on corporate tax. Beware young, angry men bearing gifts. If it's all that great of a deal, it should have been offered five years ago.

Smart College, Kentucky, reaps $250 million donation; one of the largest in US higher-education history:
Tiny Centre College in rural Danville, Ky., said Tuesday it received a gift believed to be worth $250 million in stock from the A. Eugene Brockman Charitable Trust, one of the largest gifts in U.S. higher-education history.
The gift, which consists entirely of stock in closely held Universal Computer Systems Holding Inc., likely breaks the record for gift-giving to liberal-arts colleges, according to a list maintained by the Chronicle of Higher Education. It tops a $200 million gift given to Claremont McKenna College in 2007. It also follows Michael Bloomberg's $350 million donation to Johns Hopkins University, making the Centre College gift the second-highest overall in 2012 and 2013. Among all donations since 1967, Mr. Bloomberg's ranks as No. 11 and the Brockman Trust's ranks as No. 19, according to the Chronicle.
Centre College officials said the money paves the way for 40 full-ride scholarships each year starting in 2014 for students majoring in science and economics. In just a few years, a significant share of the student body at the school, which will have a total enrollment of nearly 1,400 students this fall, will be Brockman Scholars. Tuition, room and board at Centre is $45,100 for the 2013-14 academic year.
With the US deficit at $16 trillion, the $12 billion cost incurred by delaying the employer-mandate is peanuts.
The Obama administration's move to delay a mandate on businesses to provide health coverage will mean $12 billion in lost tax revenue and additional costs, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The nonpartisan CBO said one million fewer people will get employer coverage in 2014 as a result of the postponement, and half of those will turn to new government health-insurance exchanges or Medicaid for coverage.
Earlier this month, the Treasury Department said it was delaying for one year the enforcement of penalties that could be charged to employers with 50 or more people for not providing adequate health insurance in 2014. The department also delayed various reporting requirements.
Op-ed: Detroit as a business cluster. Reading the op-ed, I couldn't stop thinking Bakken, business cluster, opportunities.

Op-ed: the stock market beats GDP as economic bellwether. The initial quarterly numbers are usually wrong—and they're poor predictors of future economic growth. [Right on cue: as noted by the writer, the initial GDP for last month was revised downward to 1.1%; today's initial GDP is pegged at 1.7%. By the way, the government recently changed the way it calculated GDP, providing a bit of lift due to definitional changes.]

Williston Housing Needs Continue To Rise -- July, 2013, Assessment

In the most recent edition of The Williston Wire, there was yet another story about the debate on the need for continued/more temporary housing in Williams County.

One piece of data was sent to me by a reader from a banking conference held in a windy city east of Minneapolis, but west of New York City.

This is the projected housing demand for four counties in the oil patch over the next decade:

Current pent-up demand (need housing right now); again numbers rounded:
  • McKenzie County (Watford City): 3,000
  • Stark County (Dickinson): 1,500
  • Ward County (Minot): 3,500
  • Williams County (Williston): 5,000
2013 - 2023, additional demand
  • McKenzie County (Watford City): 2,000
  • Stark County (Dickinson): 10,000
  • Ward County (Minot): 9,000
  • Williams County (Williston): 25,000 (no typo)
Total demand through 2023
  • McKenzie County (Watford City): 5,000
  • Stark County (Dickinson): 12,000
  • Ward County (Minot): 13,000
  • Williams County (Williston): 31,000
The County has been working this issue since 2007. I remember a comment from a reader back in the 2009 time-period in which he said that the failure to react to the projections of housing needs at that time would continue to haunt us well into the boom.

Canada: CBR Vs Pipeline

During 2011, it was all about "approving the Keystone." Most of us had the feeling, including me, that the world, as we knew it, would come to an end if the Keystone was not approved.

During 2012, there were many, many articles, pro and con on the Keystone.

During early 2013, things seemed to be quieting down; not a lot of press; things seemed to be in a holding pattern, but in the past week or so, the logjam on news stories about moving Canadian oil seems to have broken.

This is at least the third story I've posted in the past week on moving Canadian oil. One almost gets the feeling everyone now knows how this will play out. 

RBN Energy:  Canadian rail vs pipeline.
New pipeline capacity from Cushing to the US Gulf Coast, expected online at the end of 2013 and early in 2014, will ease the congestion that has stranded a lot of Western Canadian crude in the Midwest. There will subsequently be more opportunity for Canadian oil sands crude to reach Gulf Coast refineries by pipeline. Yet at the same time Canadian bitumen producers, rail terminal operators and railroad companies are jointly developing unit train loading terminals in Alberta - including one announced yesterday by Kyera Corp and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. These terminals plan to load Canadian crude for delivery to the Gulf by rail. Today we ask how rail can compete with pipelines on this route.
We have previously described growing Western Canadian heavy crude “bitumen” production and the challenges of getting it to market .  Bitumen production from oil sands is expected to increase from about 1.8 MMbd/ in 2012 to 3.6 MMbd/d in 2020 (source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers – CAPP). Oil sands crude is thick like treacle and difficult to move by pipeline because it doesn’t flow well. Yet the largest market for this heavy crude is over 2 thousand miles away from the production areas at US Gulf Coast refineries configured to process similar grades from Mexico and Venezuela . Travelling that kind of distance is most efficiently accomplished by pipeline. But to get heavy crude moving in a pipeline it has to be diluted with roughly 30 percent natural gasoline or condensate diluent to make “dilbit” crude. Diluent adds to the cost of pipeline transportation because it has to be hauled to the bitumen production site and  does not have the yield characteristics that heavy crude refiners need.
This is what RBN Energy suggests:
Our analysis suggests that producers believe that bitumen transport by rail could compete with pipelines on cost – provided that the most efficient rail movements are used. And that means using unit train loading and unloading terminals. It also means removing most of the diluent from the bitumen for rail transport to increase the payload of crude being transported. As we will see in the next episode in this series, Canadian producers are also working with railroads and terminal developers to minimize the cost of bitumen transportation from the wellhead to the rail terminal. The chart below from terminal operator Canexus’ Annual General Meeting presentation this past May (2013) indicates the comparative economics that can be achieved. 
The series will continue. 

So, What's The Price Of Rice In China? -- Wednesday Morning Links, News, And Views -- Part I

It seems like just yesterday that folks said the earth's population was running out of food, and that global warming was making things worse. So this story caught me by surprise: Asia's rice glut is expected to worse. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Asia is awash in rice, as favorable weather and government support for farmers combine to produce a bumper crop.
The glut is driving down prices for big rice importers in Africa and China. But consumers in some of the biggest rice-producing nations, including Thailand and India, are paying higher prices as surplus supplies sit in government warehouses. Asia's surplus will have little impact in the U.S., which produces different varieties of rice.
When traveling by train from New Delhi to neighboring states, a common sight in the countryside is rice piled high on wooden plinths, protected only by plastic tarps. In Thailand, the government has considered using a warehouse at the city's old airport to store rice because other storage facilities are full.
The surplus is the result of good weather and government programs that encourage rice growing. World rice stockpiles are expected to rise 2% this year, the ninth consecutive annual increase, according to the London-based International Grains Council.
Nice article from Platts to help shed light on RINS and fuel exports.  So far, RINS not leading to surge in exports.

EU joblessness: down for first time in two years
Further evidence emerged Wednesday that the eurozone economy is on the mend after struggling with a recession that's seen unemployment edge toward the 20 million mark.
Figures from Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, showed that the number of unemployed across the 17 European Union countries that use the euro fell by 24,000 in June to 19.27 million.
That's the first fall since April 2011 and adds to the weight of recent evidence that suggests the recession in the eurozone has — or is about to — come to an end.
Headlines only; no links; it is easy to subscribe to The Williston Wire.

Construction begins on US Highway 2/85 at 11th street.

City of Williston plans new office building; 17,800-ft-square; Williston Development Center.

First phase of quality apartment residences to begin; 160-acre; 330 apartments.  Entire develpment called The Ridge; first phase, the Prairie Pines at the Ridge.

Debate over need for crew camps/temporary housing in Williams County continues.

2012 ND Crime Statistics released:
Western North Dakota's oil-producing counties have gotten a bit of a bad rap as far as crime goes, but the state's attorney general says increases in crime there have not been out of line with population increases.  Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said approximately 25 percent of North Dakotans live in 12 of the busiest oil-producing counties. While crime has increased in those counties, it also has increased across the rest of the state.  Stenehjem unveiled the state's crime statistics for 2012 this week.
Human interest story: overseas workers helping in the oil patch:
Little did the two young women know that when they met at the airport in Beijing in early June it would be the start of a beautiful friendship.  In Qinyan Guo and Shuangyi Dai's homeland a mountain range divides their two Chinese provinces, but in Williston their lives have converged over shopping, learning English and American fast food.  Guo, known as Carly, and Dai, who took the name Ruby, are part of a cultural exchange program that has brought 42 students (23 women and 19 men) to the city from China, Jamaica, Jordan and Moldova to work at the iconic golden arches - McDonald's.
Groundbreaking for new lounge, restaurant, meeting space in Crosby.

For long-term residents in western North Dakota, this really is a big deal: Cash Wise Foods opens in Watford City. 
Cash Wise Foods has opened in Watford City, the first tenant in a commercial development by Minneapolis-based Oppidan Investment Co.  
The 130,000-square-foot development is expected to be fully occupied and open by the end of the year.  Other tenants, including Alco, American Smokewagon BBQ, Happy Joe's Pizza, Happy Rice Buffet, Mailbox Solutions, Oppidan Investment Co., Red Wing Shoes, Taco John's, Tractor Supply Co. and Z Wireless, are expected to open for business beginning in November. 
Two new hotels, restaurants planned for New Town.

Sounds like the boom continues. When I was growing up in Williston, if even one of these projects was happening, it would have been a big deal. But go back through the list and count the number of new projects.