Monday, September 7, 2020

Malagueña -- Roy Clark -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 7, 2020

My favorite network, TCM, featured music documentaries all weekend, beginning with The T.A.M.I. show. Right now, TCM is featuring the four-hour Director's Cut, Woodstock.  

This must have stirred a reader's memory -- reminding the reader of a great scene in a network sitcom back in 1975. I completely missed it.

From 1975, on The Odd Couple:

For many (most?) of us, we remember Roy Clark as the co-host of Hee Haw, along with Buck Owens, on network television, CBS, from 1969 - 1971. I remember it well watching it during my last year of high school, but probably not watching it during my first year in college. 

But look at this. In 1975, Hee Haw, a CBS production, was now in syndication. But The Odd Couple was an ABC sitcom. I can't connect the dots but one would assume there was a reason for such "product" placement on ABC for a CBS product.

Having said all that my favorite rendition of Malagueña was by Robert Rodriguez and Chingon.

By the way, how good was Roy Clark? See this post.

ICYMI: Focus On Fracking -- Posted Sunday Evening -- September 7, 2020

For me, two nice bookends for US shale:

Both have incredible amounts of information but perhaps different audiences, and different perspectives. 

The former concentrates on a single subject each day, whereas the latter literally breaks down the EIA weekly petroleum report to the "nth" degree and supplements it with material from other sources. The amount of information can be overwhelming but I find it easier to take it in chunks, concentrating on areas in which I have most interest. In addition, the information in the second half of the report is incredibly interesting: some politics, some updates on different operators across the country. 

Because today was a holiday, I was unaware that RBN Energy would post a blog today, but they did. In fact there were two blogs that I failed to post/link from RBN Energy since before the Labor Day weekend. Here they are.

RBN Energy: US LNG as swing supply amid shifting global market balance. This is "an encore" edition. Archived.

Not long ago, the economics for U.S. LNG exports were practically a no-brainer. Despite the longer voyage times and the resulting higher shipping costs from Gulf Coast and East Coast ports to Europe and Asia — by far the biggest LNG consuming regions — LNG priced at the U.S.’s Henry Hub gas benchmark presented a competitive alternative to other global LNG supply, much of which is indexed to oil prices, which were higher then. But earlier this year, as oil prices collapsed, COVID-19 lockdowns decimated worldwide gas demand, and international gas prices plummeted, the decision to lift U.S. cargoes has become much more nuanced, and the commercial agreements to support the development of new liquefaction capacity are much harder — if not impossible — to come by. Today, we discuss highlights from RBN’s latest Drill DownReport on the impact of recent market events on U.S. export demand, capacity utilization, and new project development.

In observance of today’s holiday, we’ve given our writers a break and are revisiting a recently published blog on the U.S.’s shifting role in the global LNG market. If you didn’t read it then, this is your opportunity to see what you missed! Happy Labor Day!

In the first few years since the U.S. began to export LNG in earnest in 2016, U.S. LNG producers and offtakers enjoyed a sort of honeymoon period. The first wave of U.S. export projects was well-subscribed, with over 90% of the capacity under long-term contract. The economics made sense. Abundant and still-growing gas supplies, particularly from the Marcellus/Utica and Permian basins, kept Henry Hub range-bound and relatively low compared with global LNG prices that were indexed to higher oil prices. Additionally, growing gas demand in Asia and a tightening balance in Europe kept destination prices at significant premiums, providing attractive “arbs” (the difference between U.S. and export destination prices) and netbacks (the delivered price less the variable costs for moving a cargo) for U.S. offtakers. As additional liquefaction capacity came online in relatively rapid succession in 2016-19, utilization rates of each new capacity addition ran high, and exports grew steadily in lockstep with capacity, save for temporary reductions due to maintenance.

Obviously much more at the link.

RBN Energy: will rebounding Canadian crude production fill up pipelines? Part 3. Archived.

Western Canadian producers have been deeply impacted by lower crude oil prices and the demand-destroying effects of COVID-19. This past spring, oil production in the vast region dropped by an estimated 940 Mb/d, or as much as 20% from the record highs earlier this year. Taking that much production offline helped in at least one sense: it eased long-standing constraints on takeaway pipelines like Enbridge’s Canadian Mainline, TC Energy’s Keystone Pipeline, and the government of Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Production has been rebounding this summer, however, and there are indications that pipeline constraints may be returning and apportionment of uncommitted space on some pipes may again become a persistent issue. Today, we continue a review of production and takeaway capacity in Alberta and its provincial neighbors with a look at apportionment trends on the biggest pipelines.

Pop Quiz: Quick, What's Wrong With This Story -- September 7, 2020

I almost got sucked into this story

Pop quiz, quick: tell me what's wrong with this story. Here's the nub of the story. What's wrong with this?

He notes that the stock price is implying anywhere from a 40% to 110% market share based upon the average selling price. At its current average selling price of $57,000 and assuming 10.9 million car sales by 2030, that implies 42% market share, Trainer says. Tesla trades at 159 times forward earnings.

My answer tomorrow, if I don't forget. We've talked about it before. In fact, we've mentioned it numerous times on the blog.

"Green" Hydrogen

Link to Irina Slav.

How it works:

  • wind and solar renewable energy to provide electricity...
    • electricity carried down transmission lines to hydrolysis centers ....
    • electricity carried down transmission lines to pumping stations ...
  • water pumped from source to hydrolysis centers 
  • hydrolyze water ...
  • electricity sent down transmission lines ...
  • electricity powers EVs


  • crude oil...
  • refined ...
  • product powers ICEs

WTI Testing $39 -- September 7, 2020

WTI trading at $39.07 on Labor Day, 2020.

ICYMI: The Wells That Are Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- September 7, 2020

Monday, September 14, 2020:
37446, conf,  CLR, Irgens Rexall 11-19HSL1,
37351, conf, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HG,
37236, conf, Slawson, Orca Federal 6-23-26TFH,

Sunday, September 13, 2020:
36775, conf,  Whiting, Iverson 11-14HU,
36115, conf, Hess, GO-Dahl-156-97-2215H-4,

Saturday, September 12, 2020:
36842, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-7,
36001, conf,  Hess, AN-MogenTrsut-153-94-2932H-6,
36000, conf, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-7,

Friday, September 11, 2020:
37210, conf,  WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HUL,
36952, conf,  WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HD,
36843, conf,  Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-6,
36839, conf,  XTO, Muller 31X-12EXH,
36838, conf,  XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12A,
36759, conf,  Whiting, Janet Adele 14-12XH,
36314, conf, BR, State Dodge 1C TFH,

Thursday, September 10, 2020:
36837, conf, XTO, HBU Muller 31x-12E2,
35329, conf, Whiting, Berg Trust 31-27H,

Wednesday, September 9, 2020:
36953, conf,  WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HZ,
36836, conf, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12B,
36114, conf,  Hess, Go-Dahl-156-97-2215H-3,
35765, conf,  Enerplus, Elderberry 149-93-21C-22H,
35764, conf,  Enerplus, Fireweed 149-93-21C-22H,
35763, conf,  Enerplus, Wisteria 149-93-21C-22H-TF,
35762, conf, Enerplus, Moss 149-93-21C-22H-LL,

Tuesday, September 8, 2020:
36835, conf,  XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12F,
36777, conf, Whiting, Iverson 11-14-3H,
36113, conf,  Hess, GO-Dahl-156-97-2215H-2,
33866, conf, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-LW-156-96-2535H-1,

Monday, September 7, 2020:
37328, conf, WPX,  Nokota 24-13-12HQ,
36213, conf, XTO, Allie 31X-24HXE,

Sunday, September 6, 2020:
37133, conf,  WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HA,
33864, conf, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-156-96-2536H-5,

Saturday, September 5, 2020:
37134, conf, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HB,

Focus On Fracking -- This Week's Edition Posted Last Night -- September 7, 2020

Link here.

Lede: oil production at 32-month low in wake of Hurricane Laura; gasoline demand, LNG exports, oil imports, and refining all "hit" by the hurricane and its aftermath.

Other News

Reminder: word of the day -- ullage.

OPEC basket, link here: stabilizes at $43.42.

Brazil: Total wants out. Link here.

Road to Venezuela: Mexico shuts the door to foreign oil companies. Mexico has an infrastructure plan to stimulate economic growth without outside "help." Link here. Will Mexico's crude oil production drop below one million bopd?

Good while it lasted: oil supertanker windfall disappears. Link here.

  • supertankers can carry 2 million bbls of crude oil;
  • day rates, the benchmark route from the Middle East to China
  • OPEC+ alliance continues to curb output and exports
  • at same time, China has curbed purchases following a buying binge when oil was cheap (hello: oil is still really, really cheap)
    • six months ago: $250,000
    • today: $6,103

As We Called It In Military: The Three-P's

Piss-poor planning? I posted this earlier -- 

The US grid, rolling blackouts associated with:

  • third-world countries
  • piss-poor planning
  • renewable energy scams

Los Angeles County experiencing its annual heat wave -- yes, it occurs annually -- some years worse than others -- but apparently after all these decades, no one has planned for it  -- by the way, how's that bullet train working out? -- it appears that upwards of three million Angelinos will get the opportunity to experience this piss-poor planning with rolling blackouts. Link here. And we haven't even seen the EV revolution yet. 

And speaking of really, really piss-poor planning, going to the hair salon during the lock down:

China, Oil Imports, And Floating Storage -- September 7, 2020

Word for the day: ullage.

All that talk about China taking less oil this month (or was it last month?) and all that floating storage off-shore from China needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Link here.

Time For Breakfast

Best aroma in the kitchen.

Logistics Report On Labor Day, September 7, 2020

Yesterday I posted this on the blog:

There are so many opportunities out there. I just can't believe it. One needs to remember, if the economy comes back:

  • buzz on the street: truck manufacturers can't keep up: their problem? getting parts from suppliers still hamstrung by the pandemic;
  • investment funds make bid to buy Kansas City Southern;
  • transportation: trucks, trains, and automobiles (seriously: DashDoor, GrubHub, Uber Eats)

Three "logistics" stories currently running in The Wall Street Journal:

Next on the list:

  • this has not been reported yet but we will soon see stories of huge volumes of wheat, corn, soybeans, other agricultural products being shipped to China to avert major famine / disaster

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

From the second-linked story above:

Container imports are flowing back into the U.S. after a six-month hiatus, with U.S. retailers knocked back by pandemic-driven lockdowns now stocking up before the holiday season.

The demand is filling up container ships across the Pacific and operators are restoring cargo-vessel sailings that were cut by as much as a third at the height of the pandemic closures from March to June.

August “will more than likely be” the best August in the history of the Port of Los Angeles, Gene Seroka, executive director of the port, the largest U.S. gateway for seaborne container imports, said this week.

Vessel bookings for the coming weeks suggest “September will be strong as well,” he said. “Retailers are currently restocking and redeveloping their inventories at their distribution centers and on their store shelves.”

The Port of Los Angeles said dockworkers there were handling 15 container ships on Thursday. In the spring, the average daily number of ships was about half that amount.

“Capacity from Asia to the U.S. West Coast is 25% higher than it was in May and around 7% on year,” said Jonathan Roach, a shipping analyst at London-based Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “We have seen a surge in short-term demand out of America.”

And more:

Trade-data-analysis company Panjiva Inc. said U.S. sales of household appliances soared 50% in the first half of the third quarter from a year earlier, while consumer-electronics imports rose 5% in the period. Imports of televisions by Best Buy rose 11% over the same period, Panjiva said.

“July was the best month since January,” said Sam Ruda, the port director at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. “E-commerce is dominant and August will be stronger. We see rising volumes coming in from the home goods stores like Home Depot and Lowe’s and from electronics retailers.”

At the facility overseen by Mr. Ruda, the largest container port on the East Coast, cargo volumes fell 7.9% in the first seven months of the year from a year earlier, including a 22% drop in loaded container imports in May. But the overall box tally jumped in July by 100,000 from the number handled in June.

Post-Sturgis: Time To Check In On Wuhan Flu AKA Covid-19 -- September 7, 2020

The usual disclaimer applies.

Texas, North Dakota, and South Dakota have each had a recent spike in cases. That's to be expected. I would be surprised if otherwise.

  • North Dakota: back to playing high school football
  • South Dakota: never shut down; recent Sturgis rally
  • Texas: re-opening, as planned

Following the Sturgis rally, August 7 - August 16, 2020:

  • estimated attendance: 250,000
  • one death has been associated with the rally
    • a 60-year-old Minnesota man, "underlying medical conditions"
  • 1 / 250,000 = 4 / 1 million
  • NY state: 1,702 deaths / 1 million

Link here to coronavirus stats by state.

Wrong link. Sorry. Here's the correct link.  

Be sure to set the search criteria to "yesterday."

Then, deaths / one million population.

In a league of their own:

  • New Jersey: 1,812
  • New York: 1,700
  • Massachusetts: 1,324
  • Connecticut: 1,253
  • Louisiana: 1,096

Not far behind:

  • Rhode Island: 996
  • Mississippi: 868
  • DC: 866
  • Arizona: 717
  • Michigan: 681

That rounds out the top 10. Others, ranking and deaths / one million population:

  • US: with 584 deaths / million -- sits between Pennsylvania (614) and Georgia (569)
  • Texas at #19: 475
  • New Mexico at #22 with 383; for all the press it gets, NM actually doing quite well;
  • Minnesota at #27 with 338; with perhaps the most strict lock down rules in the US;
  • North Dakota at #39 with 205
  • South Dakota at #41 with 196, despite Sturgis and all that traffic between Rapid City and Sioux Falls;
  • Oregon at #45 with an incredible low figure of 114 deaths per million population;

Where it all started:

  • Grand Princess Ship with three deaths total
  • Diamond Princess Ship with no deaths

Of note:

  • Navajo Nation: 522 total deaths to date; denominator not provided;

For all the attention they get, cruise ships look pretty safe, and then one has to factor in the average age of those on ship.

One of several reasons I don't follow cases: link here.

Unless she is in a "family burial plot," she is self-quarantining.