Showing posts with label Flooding2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Flooding2013. Show all posts

Friday, January 10, 2014

So, We Should Not Expect Flooding In The Bakken This Spring, Huh? Missouri River Spring Run-Off

The Billings Gazette is reporting:
Based on the current soil moisture and snowpack conditions, runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, is forecast to be 26.1 million acre feet in 2014, up slightly from the 25.1 MAF recorded in 2013, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. 
Normal runoff is 25.2 MAF.
“Although drought conditions in the Missouri River Basin improved significantly in 2013, the Missouri River mainstem reservoir levels remain below normal due to the lingering effects of the 2012 drought,” said Jody Farhat, chief of the Corps' Water Management Division.
The upper three reservoirs, Fort Peck in Eastern Montana, Garrison in North Dakota, and Oahe in South Dakota, remain 5 to 11 feet below the desired operating levels.”
I'm always amazed at the preciseness of these forecasts.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

SeekingAlpha Is Slipping --

I wouldn't pay any attention to this one.

The first tip-off is the headline: Great ready for the big one -- Bakken flooding coming this year.

"Great ready." Say what?

On a more substantive basis: suggesting that the Bakken might flood because the Red River might flood this year is inanity.  The writer has no clue. Not even worth saying anything more. Most likely the writer is shorting Bakken stocks.

For newbies, a very, very wet spring in the Bakken will make things difficult, for about a month. And roads are always a problem. But the Bakken will do just fine. Unlike Libya or the Mideast, I don't expect to many wars or terrorist events in the Bakken. Unlikely, as well, is an off-shore oil spill. There are plenty of things to worry about when investing in the oil and gas sector. Worrying about the Missouri flooding is not one of them.

By the way, when someone talks about flooding in the Bakken, it suggests to me the individual does not know much about the Bakken. A much, much bigger problem impacting increased oil production is inadequate natural gas takeaway capacity. Oil companies have to choke back production if they can't get their natural gas into the pipeline