Here We Go: Israel Attacks “Tehran” — “Tehran Scrambles Jets — Posting Begun At 7:57 P.M CT — WTI Up $8.00 — Thursday, June 12, 2025

Locator: 48743MIDEAST.

 Occasional Updates

June 15, 2025: Israel has moved into the second phase of the offensive. The first phase continues. The second phase begins: Israel will target Iran’s infrastructure to produce / deliver energy to be used for domestic uses. Expect Tehran to go “dark” for the rest of the war. Israel can’t stop cellular satellite  transmissions but Israel can stop the ability of Iranians to recharge their cell phones and other mobile devices.

June 15, 2025: I find Trump's daily tweets for Iran and Israel to ""make a deal" entirely not useful. Israel's goal: regime change, or failing that, put Iran back 25 years. But folks thinking there's any chance of "regime change" are either playing you or have no clue about the Islamic faithful.

June 15, 2025: taking a page from the Houthis. If the Houthis closed the Red Sea by targeting ships, might Israel close the Hormuz by taking out Iran's infrastructure in the area.

Original Post

Drums of war leading up to this. Link here.

Oil up $3.50 in some markets.

SecState Rubio says US not involved.

Israel says it “coordinated” with Washington, DC, before Israeli jets launched.

It appears “social media” evenly divided on how Americans hope this ends.

US has diverted 10s of thousands of drones from Ukraine to US forces in the Mideast.

Israeli Forces: “At the end of the operation there will be no nuclear threat.” [The IDF never exaggerates.]

Current indications: this “war” will end quickly. Quickly: less than 10 days.

Saudi Crown Prince MBS: "The Ayatollah wants to create a project in the Middle East like Hitler. Many countries didn't realize how dangerous Hitler was until it was too late. Saudi Arabia does not want nuclear bombs. But, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit."

IRAN’S CHIEF OF STAFF Mohammad Bagheri reportedly eliminated. 

North of Tehran. An entire penthouse has been destroyed. These are allocated for high ranking regime figures.

Amazing: US news networks not reporting much. “HANNITY” may be best site for breaking news.

Israeli attack will go on for days. 

Entire Iranian Air Force will be destroyed. Probably within 24 hours.

Israel military: think Ukraine on steroids.

US warns Iran not to attack US assets in the Mideast. 

Trump won’t sit by idly if any military asset attacked by Iran. US assets in Diego Garcia likely at end of runway (EOR0.

Oil — WTI — is up $5.63.

Iran is on its own. Russia is in NO position to come to Iran’s aid. And Putin is certainly no diplomat.

Time for US reporters in DC to start monitoring pizza deliveries to the Pentagon.

Iranian sources are claiming all of Iran’s S-300’s have been destroyed, the only systems that could intercept ballistic missiles. They also claim over 100 strikes have hit Tehran alone with explosions ongoing. Israel attacks the IRGC's largest missile site in Khorramabad as well as Imam Ali missile base. Additional strikes at Kerman power plant, Natanz nuclear facility and in Kermanshah. There are also explosions in Baghdad and unconfirmed reports that American tankers refueling Israeli fighter jets.

Iran leadership confirms: IRGC chief in Iran has been killed. Amazing Iran would confirm that. Suggests Iran may be getting ready to pivot.

Pre-emptive kill chain. 

Most agree that headlines in two weeks would have been: Iran has first nuclear weapon.

It’s telling that Iran has not yet militarily responded. No attacks on US assets in Mideast reported yet.

5:00 a.m. in Mideast; 9:00 p.m. here in Texas. Daylight in Tehran. Generally Islamic forces can’t fight at night.

“Hannity” off the air; news turned over to Trace Gallagher.

Israel has launched second wave. 9:00 p.m CT.

IDF: “We are just getting started.”

Iran most likely in touch with US to seek diplomatic solution to stop Israel attack.

Netanyahu: “This will take as many days as required.”

WTI up $8.00. Trading at $76.23.

End-Of-Day Report -- NDIC -- June 12, 2025

Locator: 48742B.

Big story in Texas this hour: flood waters in San Antonio swept away several victims; some parts of the city received over 7 inches of rain in a few hours. 

Tech tidbits:

• OpenAI has reportedly signed a deal with Google Cloud for its compute (sic) needs.
• Broadcom hinted that its AI revenue could potentially close in on $30 billion in 2026.
• Amazon will build two (2) data centers in Penssylvania, with one alongside the Susquehanna uclear power plant;
• Most important: Oracle is becoming the AI data nerve center.
• AI can't scale if the grid doesn't; right now, the grid is the biggest bottleneck.
  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.04.

Active rigs: 31.

Six new permits, #41997 - #42002, inclusive:

• Operators: Koda Resources (2); True Oil (3), Slawson
• Fields: Daneville (Divide);  Bowline (McKenzie); Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Koda Resources: has two Hazy permits, SWSE 31-162-102, 
• to be sited 409 FSL and 1745 / 1780 FEL;
• Slawson has a permit for a Rebel Federal well, NWSE 29-152-91, 
• to be sited 2058 FSL and 1940 FEL;
• True Oil has permits for three Erie Federal wells, lot 3, section 3-147-101, 
• to be sited 160 / 220 FNL and 1844 / 1865 FWL

Three permits canceled:

• CLR: three Memphis permits, Williams County;

Rambling -- Investing -- June 12, 2025

Locator: 48741ARCHIVES.

Some weeks ago, maybe months ago, I thought about the following, and mentioned it once or twice on the blog. I'm reminded of it again, today, watching CNBC.

I recently mentioned "folks (who are) afraid to get rich. Really rich."

An analyst for one of the large Wall Street investment firms was arguing her case on CNBC: she's still not ready to recommend that folks put new money into the market. She said there were just too many unknowns. 

She really came across as someone who was afraid to get rich.

I wouldn't want her as my financial advisor.

Bears and bulls. 

Watching the market for the past month, it comes back to this for me: if you aren't ready to invest now, when will you ever be ready to invest? 

My audience: those with a rolling 30-year investment horizon. "Rolling"? It means that every day, the horizon begins another 30-year investment period.

 MP Materials. A "new one" that pops up on my radar screen. From wiki:

MP Materials Corp. is an American rare-earth materials company headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine, the only operating rare earth mine and processing facility in the United States.

MP Materials focuses its production on Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr), a rare earth material used in high-strength permanent magnets that power the traction motors found in electric vehicles, robotics, wind turbines, drones and other advanced motion technologies.

MP Materials is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "MP." As of December 2021, JHL Capital Group, QVT Financial and CEO James Litinsky were the company's three largest shareholders, with about 7.7% of the company owned by Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company partly owned by the country's Ministry of Natural Resources.

Has anyone, lately, heard of magnets? Asking for a friend.

 

Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  
• Longer version here.   

Since 2000 there have been four periods in which there were significant pull backs in the market. All four periods/events generated huge angst, investors and non-investors alike, and the angst was clearly exacerbated by the media looking for eyeballs to drive ratings, or for those with political agendas. 

The next four links are all mainstream -- wiki links:

• dot.com bust: 2000; link here;
  
• while many companies failed, some, like Amazon, eBay, and Qualcomm, survived and became major players
  
• financial crash of 2008: link here; clearly the worst, without question;
  
• Covid crash of 2020: link here; really, really bad at the time, but rational folks ...
  
• Trump's tariffs: 2025: link here;
  

Three of the four having something in common.  One is an outlier.

So, I ask investors who are still afraid to invest: if you won't invest now, when will you invest?

Hey, on another note. Try to catch a short CNBC video on the "Transformation of the Army." Wiki page here. US Army Chief of Staff, General Randy A George; and,  US Army senior civilian: Secretary of the Army Daniel P. Driscoll. 

Driscoll:

Daniel Patrick Driscoll is an American politician, businessman, lawyer, and former military officer serving as the 26th United States secretary of the Army as well as the acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives since 2025.

A member of the Republican Party, he was a candidate for North Carolina's 11th congressional district in 2020. Early life and education Driscoll was raised in Banner Elk, North Carolina.

He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in business administration from University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a Juris Doctor from Yale Law School after his military service using the post 9-11 GI Bill.

He was a Yale classmate and friend of Vice President JD Vance, former national security advisor Jake Sullivan, and Matt Blumenthal (the son of U.S. senator from Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal).

Driscoll's father was an infantryman in the Vietnam War and his grandfather served in World War II. [Both of these count for a lot.]

The 2028 GOP presidential candidate bench is going to be very, very, very deep.

Latest: CNBC's "Fast Money" folks have given mom-and-pop investors something else to be worried about: weakness of the dollar and the US dollar as the reserve currency. Dollar index.

Rambling -- The Market -- Apple iPad -- CAH -- June 12, 2025

Locator: 48740ARCHIVES.

Link here. 

I started noticing this maybe eighteen months ago or thereabouts and have occasionally mentioned it on the blog. "Everything" I use on my laptop or table or cellphone seems optimized to the mobile devices, i.e., the tablet and the phone. The laptop, of course, is mobile but not in the same way that the tablet or the cellular phone is.

Now, more corroboration.

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CAH

CAH has been in my portfolio for decades (?). I've long forgotten about; seldom follow it; lost interest in it many, many years ago. For some reason, never sold it. One of my worst performers in a certain sense. But it is what it is. Or was.

So, it was a pleasant surprise to see the crawler this morning. Completely unexpected. 

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The Book Page 

Three works:

• The Hare With Amber Eyes, Edmund De Waal, c. 2010, the link;
• The White Road: Journey Into An Obsession, Edmund de Waal, c. 2015, the link;
• Portrait of a Lady, Henry James, serial published in 1880 - 1881, and then as a book, 1881.

From recent issue of The New York Review of Books, June 12, 2025, p. 21, "Anecdote of the Teapot," Christopher Benfey. 

Henry James has one of the best opening sentences of any novel:

In England a teapot like this was part of a long-established domestic ritual. “Under certain circumstances,” Henry James wrote in the opening sentence of The Portrait of a Lady, “there are few hours in life more agreeable than the hour dedicated to the ceremony known as afternoon tea.”

For me, that opening line competes with 

"I had a farm in Africa, at the foot of the Ngong Hills," from Isak Dinesan's Out of Africa. 

I think I could do a blog on "opening lines."

Here's another one, link here:

I was talking with a friend last night about great opening sentences—you know the ones that grip you right away. I always thought A Prayer for Owen Meany opened up beautifully. In fact Irving has called it his favorite first sentence:

"I am doomed to remember a boy with a wrecked voice—not because of his voice, or because he was the smallest person I ever knew, or even because he was the instrument of my mother's death, but because he is the reason I believe in God." 

No one I know has ever mentioned A Prayer for Owen Meany to me, but I discovered it on my own, and enjoyed it immensely. 

From that same link, a long paragraph broken up: 

"California, Labor Day weekend ... early, with ocean fog still in the streets, outlaw motorcyclists wearing chains, shades and greasy Levis roll out from damp garages, all-night diners and cast-off one-night pads in Frisco, Hollywood, Berdoo and East Oakland, heading for the Monterey peninsula, north of Big Sur ...

...The Menace is loose again, the Hell's Angels, the hundred-carat headline, running fast and loud on the early morning freeway, low in the saddle, nobody smiles, jamming crazy through traffic and ninety miles an hour down the center stripe, missing by inches ...

... Little Jesus, the Gimp, Chocolate George, Buzzard, Zorro, Hambone, Clean Cut, Tiny, Terry the Tramp, Frenchy, Mouldy Marvin, Mother Miles, Dirty Ed, Chuck the Duck, Fat Freddy, Filthy Phil, Charger Charley the Child Molester, Crazy Cross, Puff, Magoo, Animal and at least a hundred more ...

... tense for the action, long hair in the wind, beards and bandanas flapping, earrings, armpits, chain whips, swastikas and stripped-down Harleys flashing chrome as traffic on 101 moves over, nervous, to let the formation pass like a burst of dirty thunder ...

I mean if you're gonna write a book about guys on motorcycles then why not just blow the reader away with something like that? 

But it wasn't just the opening line for Hunter S Thompson. He had so many great lines. I used one of his lines in my remarks at my retirement ceremony, after 30 years in the USAF. To wit:

So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.”
― Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas: A Savage Journey to the Heart of the American Dream.

One could go on and on.

Oracle Surging --- Re-Posting -- Updates -- Ticker -- June 12, 2025

Re-posting with additional updates.

Locator: 48739ORACLE.

Updates

June 12, 2025, 6:40 p.m. CT: new 52-week high --

June 12, 2025, 2:08 p.m. CT: stunning --

June 12, 2025, 9:28 a.m. CT: ORCL now trades above $200 / share. Up $24/ share today.

June 12, 2025: link to the WSJ.

From the linked WSJ article:

Oracle logged double-digit revenue growth in its most recent quarter and set its sights on even bigger gains in the fiscal year ahead, pushing shares higher after hours.

Chief Executive Safra Catz said Wednesday the cloud-services company now expects $67 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, which started this month. That would be a 16% jump from the prior year and more than $1 billion higher than Oracle had previously estimated, she said.

The company is also on track to exceed the revenue growth target it previously gave for fiscal 2027, according to Catz. “We have a clear line of sight to future revenue growth,” she said on a call with analysts.

The stock jumped 7.5%, to $189.95, in after-hours trading.

The higher growth rates are expected to be driven by both Oracle’s cloud applications and cloud infrastructure businesses, executives said. The Austin, Texas, company is forecasting its total cloud growth rate, which accounts for both applications and infrastructure, to rise 40% this fiscal year, compared with 24% in the prior one.

June 12, 2025: the transcript does not even begin to give one the feel of the CEO's almost giddy remarks regarding Oracle following earnings report. Takeaways from the CEO's comments:

June 12, 2025:

Oracle: immediately after the open, Thursday morning opening; Oracle CEO comments are absolutely incredible; up 10% at the open on a down day for the Dow.

Original Post

CNBC, on Oracle, after Oracle reports results. Link here.

Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  
• Longer version here.  

 ************************************
Oracle

It's a bit unclear, but Oracle should now have its headquarters in Nashville, having announced that it (Oracle) planned to move from Austin, TX, to Nashville, TN, in 2024. 

One of many links on the blog regarding Oracle.  Link here.

Ticker today:

Link here.

Also here.

And here, App Economy:

Thursday -- June 12, 2025

Locator: 48742ORACLE.
Locator: 48742B.
Locator: 48742BOEING.

Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  
• Longer version here.  

***************************************************

Mid-morning trading: after a huge drop at the opening -- due to Boeing / India earlier this morning; some concerns about tariffs; concerns about Iran -- the market has pivoted and all three major indices could move into the green before the close.

Nvidia: in mid-morning trading, ticks higher, trending toward new all-time record highs. I believe the record close for NVDA was $148 back in November, 2024. It's trading at $144 today, up about 1%.

Oracle: immediately after the open, Thursday morning opening; Oracle CEO comments are absolutely incredible; up 10% at the open on a down day for the Dow.

Boeing: Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Air India, 242 on board, crashed after takeoff in India; at least 100 fatalities -- early reports; now NYTimes reporting "over 200 dead"; Ahmedabad. The Guardian.

• Boeing weighs on the Dow today; could open down 5% (based on futures)
  
• Boeing 787 Dreamliner: generally a great track record, along with the engines having a strong track record
• no one has mentioned "foul play"
  
• Ahmedabad: huge economic center; western India;
• 2012: named India's best city to live in
• second-largest producer of cotton; city known as the "Manchester of India"; has emerged as important and industrial hub in India;
• one of a few cities in India that has hosted leaders of major global economies, including US, China, and Canada
• February 24, 2020: President Trump became first US president to visit the city; earlier had been visited by Xi of Chia and Trudeau of Canada
• apparently occurred "five minutes after takeoff"
• reports: landing gear had not yet been retracted
• reports of "mayday call engine failure" before crash
• "landing gear on Boeing 787 Dreamliner is typically retracted within ten seconds after takeoff
• in the event of engine failure after V1, retract landing gear after takeoff -- US DOT FAA MMEL Boeing 787 all models page 127 and page 186; link here.
• most common reason to delay gear retraction: to allow brake cooling to minimize risk of fire hazard in the gear bays.
  

 ********************************
Other News

Economic numbers:

• PPI: 0.1% vs 0.2% estimate
• Feds big concern: tariffs would cause inflation; didn't happen (at least not so far)

Tariffs: Japan agrees to buy US LNG to rebalance supply portfolio away from Australia. Link here. 

Gary Cohn: IBM Vice Chairman. I had forgotten that / or was completely unaware. Born, 1960.

• Goldman Sachs, for 25 years --> president and COO of GS
• 11th director of the National Economic Council and chief economic advisor for President Trump, first term, 2017 - 2018
• advisor and venture capital investor for various companies: cybersecurity, blockchain, medical technology;
• Board of Advisors for Hoyos Integrity, a startup company employing biometric blockchain technology for secure commuications and digital payments
• 2021: appointed vice-chairman of IBM
• fascinating bio, absolutely fascinating (see link)
  

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.11.

New wells:

Friday, June 13, 2025: 44 for the month, 197 for the quarter, 411 for the year,

• 40604, conf, Enerplus, Danielle 145-97-12-1-7H,
• 40555, conf, Enerplus, Danielle 145-97-12-1-6H,
• 40347, conf, Neset Consulting Service, Vision 1,

Thursday, June 12, 2025: 41 for the month, 194 for the quarter, 408 for the year,

• 41177, conf, CLR, Kenneth 4-17H1,
• 41120, conf, Oasis, Sawtooth Federal 5202 24-20 6B,
• 39979, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 1H,

RBN Energy: E&P Q1 earnings rise before price drop darkens Q2 outlook.

Buoyed in part by early optimism about the Trump administration’s potentially positive impact on the economy and the oil and gas industry, the WTI spot oil price reached a five-month high of nearly $76/bbl in January. But the optimism and oil prices have steadily eroded due to the impact of tariffs, trade wars and stubborn oilfield service inflation. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the impact of the January price spike on Q1 2025 earnings and analyze the potential impact of a much lower price scenario in Q2 2025. 

The strong January spot price drove the Q1 2025 average to $71.83/bbl, up 2% from a three-year low of $70.32/bbl in Q4 2024. However, a nearly 70% increase in natural gas prices during the quarter drove a 9% increase in the average oil and gas price to $38.91/boe, the highest since Q1 2023. As a result, the earnings for the 40 E&Ps we cover totaled $22.1 billion in Q1 2025, up 37% to $14.96/boe (blue bar to far right and left axis in Figure 1 below), up from $10.89/boe in Q4 2024. Cash flow grew to $40.1 billion, increasing 13% to $27.15/boe (orange bar and left axis) over the same time period.

Figure 1. E&P Financial Results and Production, 2014-Q1 2025.

Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics, LLC

The quarter-over-quarter increase in performance appears less impressive when viewed from a broader historical perspective. Average commodity prices for the quarter most closely parallel the results in Q3 2021, when the WTI spot price was just under $71/bbl and the average Henry Hub spot price was within $0.20 of the Q1 2025 price at $4.35/MMBtu. While the average realization in Q3 2021 was just $1.83/boe higher, the pre-tax operating income was $20.42/boe, 36% higher than the recently completed quarter. A major factor is a $2/boe increase in production costs over the last three years, driven by significant post-pandemic oilfield equipment and services inflation. Depreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) costs were also more than $1/boe higher, reflecting the higher costs of finding and acquiring reserves. Persistently higher costs are likely to exacerbate the impact of lower commodity prices in Q2 2025 and beyond.

The comparison of costs for Q1 2025 over the previous quarter is more positive. Lifting costs grew 2% to $11.77/boe as production costs increased 2% to $9.86/boe and production taxes rose 7% to $1.90/boe. DD&A expenses declined 3% to $10.92/boe, while impairment charges fell 40% to $0.96/boe. Exploration outlays were down 9% to $0.30/boe.