Saturday, March 2, 2019

Wow, Color Me "Blown Away" -- Norah Jones -- "Origin" Is Grapevine, TX

My wife noticed this.

Go over to wikipedia and look up Norah Jones. Born in NYC but she considers her "home" to be Grapevine, TX. Wow.

That's where we live. She went to the same middle schools/high schools our granddaughters and/or their friends attend and/or will attend.

In addition, she attended UNT, Denton, TX, just north of us where the middle granddaughter often goes to practice Olympic soccer development.

See Texas Monthly:
I was born in New York, but growing up in Grapevine, vacationing in Big Bend, and two-stepping at the local steakhouse turned me into a Texan soon enough.
This explains her country songs, which I never understood until now.

Norah Jones -- and we're living in her neighborhood. Blows me away. Who wudda thought?

She was my favorite singer in the years 2002 - 2004. A long story. For another time.

More from Texas Monthly:
My earliest memory of Grapevine is going two-stepping at the local steakhouse when I was about four, not long after my mom and I moved to Texas from New York.
We’d go every Sunday. One week, a woman came with her three sons, who were all about my age and had on cowboy hats and cowboy boots. I was so happy because they wanted to dance. The band was playing good ol’ country music, and we danced all night. I really got into music later.
I have great memories of playing alto saxophone in the Grapevine High School marching band—because football was such a big deal, marching band was a huge deal. We went to band camp about a month before school started, and we had to start practice at six in the morning because by noon we’d be dying of heatstroke. We’d be at these competitions with polyester uniforms on and we would drop like flies. I remember our section leader telling us, “If you pass out, pass out on the side, otherwise you’ll get trampled.” There was a protocol for passing out! [Nothing has changed; it is still the same.]

After going to Grapevine High School my freshman year, I transferred to Booker T. Washington, the arts magnet school in Dallas. There was no marching band there because there was no football team, but I could take classes like jazz ensemble. After high school I went to the University of North Texas to study jazz, and I didn’t listen to anything but jazz. It wasn’t until I moved to New York the summer after my second year and I got homesick for country music that I realized how deep it was in my bones.

In junior high I didn’t think it was cool to like country music, but truth is, I love it. I love all aspects of it—the music, the lyrics—but what comes through in my music is the drawl. Sometimes my accent gets kind of twangy and my piano playing gets more country than I ever thought it could be—there are all these little grace notes in my playing that I associate with country.
After my first record came out and I started playing a lot of shows, I was really into Willie Nelson’s Red Headed Stranger, and I found myself trying to play like his sister, Bobbie Nelson, who was on that record. In fact, it was partly because of Willie that I began to realize what being Texan was all about. In high school, I remember thinking, “Since Willie’s from Texas, it must be cool to be from Texas.”
Lonestar, Norah Jones

Global Warming To Roil Power Markets Next Week -- Bloomberg -- March 2, 2019


Later, 10:45 p.m. CT: see first comment. Quite interesting. See also "Focus on Fracking."  

Original Post
When I started the blog eleven years ago I had no plans of following natural gas. I was only going to follow the Bakken and only going to follow crude oil. That did not last long. The natural gas story has become incredibly interesting.

Two tags: natural gas fill rate; and, natural gas fill rate 2018 - 2019. The EIA graphics are amazing.

One source linked at the sidebar at the right has provided an incredible amount of particularly good information. 

Had this been a winter like that of 2014, the natural gas story would have been even more interesting. I had pretty much given up on the story.

But it looks like things are just starting to get interesting. From Bloomberg via twitter, link here:

I think this was previously posted but I see the EIA has tweeted it again.

Canadian Auto Sales Slip For Eleventh Straight Month -- Canadians Want Trucks -- March 2, 2019

Talk about cognitive dissonance. The country that doesn't want pipelines to move fossil fuel and the country that is so concerned about global warning prefers diesel- and gas-guzzling trucks to fuel-efficient sedans. Who wudda thought?

Link at Auto Economics. Data points:
  • Canadian auto sales dropped for the eleventh straight month in February, 2019
  • auto sales fell 3.7 percent from a year earlier
  • truck sales rose 1.2 percent
  • passenger car sales fell a whopping 16 percent
  • heavy goods vehicles? represented nearly 75% of all sales in the month
What do analysts blame? "Significant snow and weather" events. I can't make this stuff up. Remember, this was not a single month of declining auto sales but the eleventh straight month. Hard to believe that "significant snow and weather" was the reason for the "eleventh straight month."


Future Of Wi-Fi -- The WSJ -- March 2, 2019

Of all the non-energy stories I've blogged about over the past eleven years, this one is one of my favorite. Years ago when visiting the local Apple store -- out in California -- I mentioned to the young millennial (though no one knew what a "millennial" was back then) that "some day wi-fi would be everywhere and it would be free everywhere." He disagreed saying that no one would ever leave that much money on the table by not charging for wi-fi.

Fast forward ten years: wi-fi is everywhere and for the most part wi-fi is completely free.

I was unaware that a war was brewing but it goes back to what that millennial said many years ago: "no one would leave that much money on the table."

And that seems to be the case. The telecommunications folks are eager to see wi-fi disappear so that they can charge you and me extravagant fees for 5G.

From The WSJ this weekend: cellphone carriers envision world without wi-fi. Verizon calls Wi-Fi "rubbish," but providers say it is cheaper and "getting smarter."
Cellphone companies can’t quit Wi-Fi just yet, though not for lack of trying. Cheap and unburdened by regulations governing mobile-phone service, Wi-Fi networks have grown from a coffee-shop perk to near ubiquity. There will be more than 549 million global public and cable company-run hot spots by 2022, contributing to a technology that accounts for more than half of all internet traffic, according to equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc.

At the same time, telecom executives say fifth-generation cellular technology could drive more data and revenue onto their networks. One of 5G’s top selling points is its ability to more cheaply link swarms of machines to cellphone networks.

Ronan Dunne, head of Verizon Communications Inc.’s new consumer-focused unit, says many customers should be able to get rid of Wi-Fi at home once 5G is rolled out and new technologies spread its signal throughout homes.
Look at this:
“I think the jury’s still out,” Chuck Robbins, Cisco’s chief executive, said in an interview. “There’s certainly a lot of downstream discussion about it.” Hot spots are so common, he added, that it makes sense to buy a device like a Wi-Fi-only computer tablet that isn’t likely to travel where a signal can’t be found.
In fact, Apple does exactly that, offering tablets and iPods that are wi-fi only and they've done that for years.

Great, great article. Worth archiving.

The California Drought Is Washed Away -- March 2, 2019

The California drought washed away. From the Pasadena Star-News. Worth archiving. The graphics are incredible.
An atmospheric river that formed over the Pacific Ocean in early 2017, sending storm after storm after storm toward the West Coast, officially ended the drought. 
The winter of 2017-18, however, was unusually dry, and drought conditions spread back over California throughout 2018. They weren’t as severe as they’d been in 2016 — this time, none of the state entered that “exceptional” drought category.
Once again, 2019 has been rainier than average thanks to back-to-back storms throughout January and February. The Drought Monitor shows that as of Feb. 19, less than 4 percent of the state is in drought. The 29 percent of the state that’s still abnormally dry includes most of Orange, San Diego and Imperial counties and parts of Riverside, San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties.
And it's still raining. 

It Never Rains In Southern California, Albert Hammond

US States Ranked For Health/Happiness; Making NYC Great -- How The Socialists Do It -- March 2, 2019

From Mark Perry, link here:

Killing jobs softly: In addition to killing 25,000 direct jobs and perhaps as many as 100,000 indirect jobs (cabbies, restaurant employees, bookstores; big box stores, etc), the socialists in NYC appear to be killing the existing restaurant business. It's now being reported that restaurant jobs decreased in NYC after the minimum wage hike. Surprise, surprise.

So, you may lose your job due to the minimum wage, but if you are able to keep it, you will be paid more.

From the link:
The left achieved what it considers a major victory in New York when the minimum wage was raised to $15 an hour. In the aftermath of this victory, however, New York City has experienced its worst decline in restaurant employment since 9/11. So reports the Foundation for Economic Education. 
It doesn’t take much economic education to understand what has happened.
Restaurants tend to operate on famously low profit margins, typically 2 to 6 percent. So a mandatory wage increase [from $11 an hour to $15] over a two-year period is not trivial.
Later in the article, from Mark Perry:
In addition to lost jobs, the $15 minimum wage has caused a reduction in hours for some employees who are retained. A reduction in hours can offset partially, or even fully, any net gain in wages that would otherwise accrue due to the hourly wage hike.
While standing in line at Starbucks the other day, I heard an employee remarking that he only got 22 hours the previous week, and needed more hours. That suggests to me that Howard Schultz knows the cost difference between a "full-time" employee and a "part-time" employee, despite both earning the same hourly wage.

Killing Me Softly With His Song, Robert Flack

Irony or coincidental? It's not lost on some -- the simultaneous emergence of the infanticide movement, increasing anti-Semitism among some members of the US House, and the rise of the US national socialist movement.

Global Warming?

Link here. This really is a superb site, and the wildlife photography -- especially the birds -- is incredible. It's my number one site when checking in on the weather / climate.

From the linked article:
During March 1910, the average afternoon temperature in the US was 65 degrees, compared to 52 degrees last year.
This issue will ultimately be a win-win for both sides. One group will successfully use the issue to transfer wealth; the other group will be comforted by the fact that all those efforts to stop global warming worked. 

Week 9: February 24, 2019 -- March 2, 2019

International top energy story: Japanese enter the US tight oil play;

Top national non-energy story: all the record cold/low temperatures being set across the US in February; one of many posts here; and, here; and, here; and, here; with music;
Top national energy story: virtually overnight, US becomes third largest LNG exporter;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • February 2019 among the coldest in ND history
  • ND's first commercial solar energy project, located in Cass County, gets OK
  • halfway through legislative session, most school building bills have been defeated but the "no-expense-spared" TR museum presses on
CLR is reporting some great Pasadena wells; and, here;
BR Gudmunson well with a huge jump in production;
BR Archer well with a huge jump in production;
One case from the March dockets: Hess to drill 48 wells

Whiting: Generation 5.0

Meridian / Davis Refinery with secret upstream partner

Bakken economy
VEAC announces termination of QEP deal;

Bakken update -- Energy Transfer's Bakken update
Bakken 101 for newbies

Making America Great -- Riding The Wave -- March 2, 2019

Millennials, link here:
Millennial is an identity given to a broadly and vaguely defined group of people.
There are two wings of "Millennial" that are often at odds with each other: Generation Y (people born between 1981-1991) and Generation Z (born between 1991-2001).
People of Generation Y often have characteristics similar to Generation X, which is why Generation Z will confuse Generation Y with Generation X and then claim to be the generation that represents "Millennial," when in fact, birth years for Millennial range from about 1981-2001, just as the birth-years for Baby Boomers ranged from 1946-1964.
Both Generation Y and Generation Z can be called "Millennials," with the primary difference between the two being technology.
Generation Y grew-up on personal computers, cell phones, and video game systems, while Generation Z has grown up on tablets, smartphones, and apps. Yet, the common ground between both generations is that both have been transforming and altering communication and identity--not just in the United States but globally.
US home-ownership: hits highest level since 2014. Link here. And look where the shift is occurring: among millennials. The shift from renting to ownership is occurring, especially among 35 - 44-year-olds. In round numbers, big numbers, the overall percentage not changing much: sill around 64%. Only seven comments.
  • born in 1981: 38 years old this year
  • born in 1991: 28 years old this year
And guess what? All those millennials who said they never wanted a house, also said they never needed a car. Moving to their new home in the suburbs? Yup: a new car. Or two.
GDP, 4Q18: the 2.6% reported the other day was the initial estimate. There will still be two or three more readings before the final number. I think it could go to 3%. But now, bad news: right now the GDPNow model estimates 1Q19 GDP growth at 0.3 percent. With incredibly cold weather hitting the nation the first half of March, it's very possible, that estimate won't improve.

US Hispanic poverty: has fallen to a record low of 18.3%. Data points:
  • Hispanics account for 18.3% of the popultion
  • Hispanics: 18.3% live in poverty
  • the 1.1% year-on-year decrease in their rate of poverty: largest single decline that the US Hispanic population has very experienced
  • something tells me the Hispanic population does not support giving some of their dollars to other communities for wrongs in the past (reparations)
  • African-Americans: 13% of the US
  • Hispanic population growing much, much faster than the African-American population
  • the rate of poverty among all Americans declined slightly to 12.3%, the third year in a row that that numbers have gone down
  • Hispanic households also saw their median household income increase almost 4% to $50,486 in 2017, the third year in a row that the population saw a rise in pay
US taxes: thank you, tax reform -- WSJ op-ed. Kevin Hassett was right about growth in 2018; Larry Summers wasn't. 745 comments. First comment: "Didn't you mean, thank you, President Trump? Strange  how in this entire article, the only thin the WSJ gives Trump credit for is 'risky' tariff policies." Even the folks in the blue states where property taxes are capped by the IRS, they want more tax reform.

Surfin' USA, The Beach Boys

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil -- March 2, 2019

We talked about this just a few weeks ago: for investors, how to value a company based on reserves?

Rigzone weighs in.

The article doesn't answer that question. In fact, the article hardly addresses that question.

Instead, the article is about global reserves in general. Data points:
  • current estimated global oil reserves: 1.7 trillion bbls
  • global demand, about 100 million bbls/day
  • doing the math: 45 years at current demand and no further addition to reserves
  • since 1980, we've extracted about 950 billion bbls -- let's call it a trillion bbls -- and during that period proven oil reserves have soared by over one trillion bbls
  • why peak-oil production is wrong: the US has had a reported oil supply lifetime ("reserves-to-production" of just 8 - 14 years reported every year since the end of WWII. This suggests we should have run out of oil many decades ago. Yes ,over 50 billion bbls and 12 million bbls/day, proven reserves and total crude oil production are the highest in US history
  • why peak-oil production is wrong: there is little economic incentive to look for resources that will not be needed for many decades
  • global shale and deepwater opportunities are overwhelmingly under-explored but will become more attractive as demand continues to mount
  • most people do not know that 60 - 70 percetn of a reservoir's OOIP remains stranded after primary and second operations because it is so difficult to extract
  • tertiary recovery -- CO2-EOR could be the next oil revolution in the US after shale
By the way, something to think about.

For decades oil companies have said CO2 is not an issue. Now they are changing their story. Sure, they are being forced into political correctness. But didn't this work out just great? All of a sudden CO2 will be needed for tertiary production.


Relaxing production cuts. Will bring more heavy oil to market just when it's most needed.


Says massive shale oil reserves found in northern China. Doesn't amount to a hill of beans, yet, and won't for decades. But, then again, it will add to global reserves. See first article above.


Colluding with Russia. Venezuela will move its European headquarters to Moscow.

Back in the USSR, The Beatles