Locator: 44491LDC.
The grid, from oilprice:
From last week:
Data center growth: link here. American exceptionalism:
Now this from Reuters today:
Investors might want to listen to the interview with the governor of Virginia from earlier this week on CNBC. The governor by the way is a Republican in a blue state and will run circles around VP-elect JD Vance in 2028 if that is God's will (inshallah).
Locator: 44490LNG.
Tag: Nvidia NVDA LDC batteries EVs electricity Northvolt Run:ai
Locator: 48427AI.
My hunch: some states will have huge advantages -- what's needed:
Nuclear power: story to watch -- if "they" can bring Three-Mile Island back on line within five years and within budget.
Locator: 48346AI.
Forbes: excellent newsletter updated the "AI bubble." Great, great newsletter. I would link it but I can't find it on the browser. Pushed out as a newsletter for subscribers.
From oilprice.com today:
Two camps:
I'm in the second camp.
Earlier today I posted this two-liner:
Locator: 47048GRID.
I haven't read this article yet. Let's see if Barron's has it right. LOL. More weekend reading.
Whatever happened to Elon Musk's super-duper-giga batteries that could all that extra wind / solar energy when it was not needed?
Let's see:
EV penetration: 1%? 2%? 5%?
What am I missing? Oh, that's right. EVs charge at night.
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That Big Park, North Los Angeles, Years Ago
Anyone paying attention is very, very aware of this story. But we all need reminding now and then, again.
Link to Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Bitcoin miners are starving entire cities of electricity. Think about that as the Biden administration plans to phase out fossil fuel and switch over to renewable (spoiler alert: not gonna work).
From the linked article:
Byline: Sukhumi, Abkhazia: In the side streets and narrow alleys of Abkhazia’s main city, a low growl and an oily stench are commonplace. Thrumming diesel generators provide power amid rolling blackouts that have infuriated residents and evoked memories of the post-war chaos nearly three decades ago.
But what’s more infuriating for many Abkhaz is what’s causing the blackouts: bitcoin.
Or, to be more precise, the cryptocurrency “miners” whose computer servers are sucking the breakaway Georgian region’s electrical grid dry.
“To be honest, after the war, in my opinion, it was easier,” said one frustrated Sukhumi resident, Rimma Khashba, 67.
“We have to get used to the schedule that they dictate to us. It’s very difficult because it’s constant: The lights are on, the water’s off; the water’s on, the lights are off. Or the Internet goes off. You can’t even turn on the washing machine to do the wash,” she told RFE/RL.
Cryptocurrency values are soaring. A single bitcoin is now worth around $19,000.
Isolated and cut off from much of the world since 2008, Abkhazia’s economy relies heavily on trade with Russia, with produce heading north and Russian tourists and intrepid businessmen heading south.
But since 2016, the region of 250,000 people has also been home to a thriving cryptocurrency industry. Entrepreneurs -- mainly Russian -- are importing computer parts and taking advantage of Abkhazia’s cheap electricity rates, inexpensive real estate, and loose regulations from the de facto government to set up “server farms” and seek profit from the global explosion in digital currencies.
Unlike real-world currencies, which are printed or minted by governments, digital currencies, roughly speaking, involve running sophisticated computer algorithms that basically create -- or “mine” -- the currencies. That requires major amounts of energy-intensive, expensive computer hardware.
See this post from December 15, 2017.
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Geo-Politics
I've long lost the bubble with regard to President Obama transferring pallets of cash to Iran back in 2018 or something like that. I don't know what's true any more. Machts nichts. But there is now a story that is being reported in multiple sources that Israel is preparing for another delivery to Iran by another president before he leaves office. No, it won't be cash this time.
Four days ago it was reported that the US deployed an unspecified number of B-52s on short notice from Minot AFB, ND, to the Mideast. That was four days ago. The jets obviously made it; if they had not, we would have read about it in The New York Times. TheB-52s are being serviced as we speak, bomb-loaders are reviewing their standard operating procedures, weapon-system operators are reviewing their maps, and pilots are reviewing their checklists.
As for me, I'm going to watch Dr Strangelove again tonight.
The bombardier in that movie, by the way, was none other than Darth Vader.
I've had one eight-hour sortie in a B-52, and this is as realistic as it gets in a movie like this:
The story of how Slim Perkins ended up in this movie is ... well, worthy of a screenplay.
By the way, a "real-life" bombardier reflected on "Strangelove" back in 2004.
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US Presidential Politics
In light of recent developments on Thanksgiving eve, perhaps it's time to re-read this short post.
It takes four justices to vote to "grant certiorari" for the US Supreme Court to "take the case" for argument. However each Circuit Court is assigned to (normally one) Justice for "immediate" appeals. That justice can refer the "immediate" case to the full Court and issue emergency stays and such. These situations are not the actual resolution of the case, which only occurs at the full Court (nine justices).
This story is out of the UK, but it certainly applies to the US. Simply put: evidence that "the grid" is not ready for EVs. Link to Charles Kennedy.
New rules proposed in the UK could see electricity distributors switching off electric vehicle (EV) chargers at home connected to the smart meter system to prevent grid overloads in case of ‘emergency’ peak electricity demand.
Under the proposed plan, “the technical solution proposed to allow Distributors control of consumer devices (such as Electric Vehicles) connected to Smart Meter infrastructure will only be used as a last resort measure in the event that market mechanisms fail or do not deliver to the extent anticipated.”
The proposed changes would give power distributors in the UK the right to decide when the grid overload is in an ‘emergency’ situation and switch off high-usage devices such as EV chargers at home.
Of course, it would be "the last resort." Why wouldn't it be "the last resort"?
The Millstone #3 nuclear plant (in Connecticut) seems to have abruptly gone offline [yesterday -- June 6, 2020].
This prompted the gas plants to rapidly mobilize to fill in the ~1,000 Megawatts that went bye bye. (The brief price spike reflected the incentive needed for a Combined Cycle Gas Plant to go full ramp ... probably 2 plants, actually).
So, let's see what the graphs look like today. Yup, "perfectly normal," just what one would predict if the reader's explanation was correct (and, of course, it was):There have been several 'issues' with the 2 Millstone plants for several months. Could make for interesting situation during upcoming winter cold snaps.
ERCOT adjusted its peak load forecast to 75,200 MW to account for economic impacts related to COVID-19. The new forecast is 1,496 MW less than what was reported in the preliminary summer SARA and increases the summer 2020 reserve margin to 12.6%, up from 10.6%.
However, the new forecast is still higher than ERCOT’s all-time peak demand record of 74,820 MW set on Aug. 12, 2019.
The grid operator anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet the expected demand under normal/expected operating conditions.Most interesting: despite the lockdown / meltdown-2020 / COVID-19 -- whatever you want to call it -- the new forecast is still higher than ERCOT’s all-time peak demand record of 74,820 MW set on Aug. 12, 2019.
October 3, 2024: EVGO jumps 64% on news of $1-billion guaranteed loan from US government. This is the charging company, not the EV auto company, Canoo (GOEV).
October 1, 2024: Tesla superchargers can now accommodate GM EVs.
December 19, 2023: last major holdout will go with Tesla's super-charging plugs.
December 10, 2023: update. Great update.
October 21, 2023: add Toyota and BMW to the list of auto manufacturers choosing Elon Musk / NACS.
June 29, 2023: Polestar adopts Tesla's supercharging plug.
June 28, 2023: Volvo adopts Tesla's supercharging plug.
June 12, 2023: one step closer to the "holy grail." Ford and GM partner wtih Tesla for access to Tesla's superchargers. If Stellantis follows suit, game over.
Crashed and burned: Blink Charging, EVgo, and ChargePoint;
- Motley Fool notes Tesla partnership with F, GM; says Stellantis could be next;
- closer and closer to the "holy grail": a universal supercharger.
- see this post.
March 30, 2022: fast charging will not be more profitable than pumping gas; it's still in the convenience store where the money is made -- soda and candy.
August 6, 2017: who will be charge all those EVs? -- WSJ.
July 16, 2017: America's next energy crisis -- the electric grid, Forbes, July 10, 2017.
July 16, 2017: where we stand today with charging EVs -- 20 minutes of fast charging ("watching paint dry" will get you an additional 60 miles). And, with your conventional gasoline automobile you can stop at any branded gasoline station (Shell, Chevron, XOM, etc) but if you have a Tesla you have to use a Tesla charging station. No saying how the other EVs will "operate" their recharging system.
Source for the graphic:
Using a very conservative 3 miles/kWh, just the electricity used at refineries - 47,224 million kWh would be enough to propel EVs 142 billion miles.
According to EIA 1,000 cu ft of natural gas produces 99 kWh. So if the natural gas used at refineries was used to produce power, we would have 88.5 billion kWh, which represent another 265 billion miles.
In a year, US drivers drive 3.1 trillion miles. So just the purchased electricity and natural gas are enough to cover 13% of driving needs. If all the fuels used at refineries were used to propel EVs, it would be a lot more.
In fact, if petroleum is used to produce power, we get 13.6 kWh per gallon. The average US fleet economy is 25mpg.
But a pessimistic EV average is 3 miles/kWh.
So a gallon of petroleum can move the average gas vehicle 25 miles but it can move the largest EV 40 miles. If you compare the best gas vehicle - the Prius, a gallon can move it 50 miles which is roughly about as far as a gallon worth of electricity can propel the BMW i3.
This seemed to be a very poorly written article. Folks pointed out that the contributor incorrectly stated the data he used was from 2015, but in fact was from 2014.So as we transition to EVs, the drop in refining oil can power at least 13% of the driving and the worst case is the oil being used to produce power to drive the EV with much better emissions controls at one central location as opposed to distributed uncontrolled emissions. But with the growth of renewables (See my 4 part series on renewable energy growth), EVs are only becoming cleaner by the day.
Two energy-related trends are converging and are potentially contradicting the goal of generating increasing levels of green power.
Some utilities are expanding their transmission networks to accommodate more wind and solar power, but certain commercial and residential users are trying to break free from their local utilities by producing their own electricity. Those distributed systems, or on-site systems, would reduce the number of customers tied to the central network. Fewer participants could then erode the ability to pay for upgrades to carry green power over long distances.
The northeastern U.S. and Texas, generally, stand in contrast to California. Northeast Utilities, for example, is adding a lot of transmission throughout its New England territories so that its grid can transport more wind electrons that are replacing some retiring power plants. It will spend $4 billion on expansions and upgrades, the utility said in a conference call.