Monday, July 7, 2025

Hess, CVX, XOM -- Twilight Time For Someone -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48690GUYANA.


A musical interlude, link here:

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Rambling: AAPL -- Apple -- Walmart -- Amazon -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48689AAPL.

AAPL / Apple: after hearing Jim Cramer's interview with Peter Navarro on CNBC early this morning, one could certainly argue Apple could be in a lot of trouble. It certainly sounds like Navarro is the one behind Trump's irritation with Apple, and will do what it takes to make Apple "bow" to the administration's demands. In the interview Navarro had two points: tariffs are not the problem; JPow is the problem. Apple? Collateral damage. It certainly felt to me that Jim Cramer lost the debate with Navarro. It appears that Trump / Navarro / Frank Dikötter understand China and China's Achilles' heel.

Peter Kent Navarro (born July 15, 1949, 76 years old) is an American economist who has been the senior counselor for trade and manufacturing to U.S. president Donald Trump since January 2025.
He previously served in the first Trump administration, first as the director of the White House National Trade Council, then as the director of the new Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.

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E-Retail

I honestly don't know what "to do" with this chart -- see below -- except to note that there's probably a reason that only Amazon and Walmart are shown in this graphic. Seriously, when it comes to "what they do," is there anyone else? 

Link here.

If I didn't know anything about investing, it seems I would want one or both of these as a component of my portfolio. If one is unhappy with BRK, might one replace BRK with AMZN/WMT?

Remember, this is not an investment site.

Note, link here:

SOFI: what's going on over at SOFI? Link here. Reminder: all three of these "financial entities" are "Stanford alumnae": Schwab, SOFI, and Robinhood.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.  
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Zavanna's Boxer And Mastiff Wells -- Stoney Creek -- July 7, 225

Locator: 48688ZAVANNA.

Five new permits, #42092, - #42096, inclusive:

  • Operator: Zavanna, KODA Resources;
  • Field: Stoney Creek (Williams); Daeville (Divide)
  • Comments:
    • Zavanna has permits for three Boxer wells, NENW 22-155-100, 
      • to be sited 728 / 729 FNL and 2310 - 2370 FWL.
    • KODA Resources has permits for two Bock wells, SWSE 15-161-102, 
      • to be sited 709 FSL and 2497 / 2532 FEL

The map:


The Boxer wells:
  • 37924, loc/A, BR, Boxer 2A TFH, Pershing, t--; cum 309K 5/25;
  • 37926, loc/A, BR, Boxer 2C TFH, Pershing, t--; cum 231K 5/25;
  • 37928, loc/A, BR, Boxer 2B MBH, Pershing, t--; cum 265K 5/25;
  • 37934, loc/A, BR, Boxer 3A TFH, Pershing, t--; cum 271K 5/25;
  • 37935, loc/A, BR, Boxer 3B MBH, Pershing, t--; cum 295K 5/25;
  • 37936, loc/A, BR, Boxer 3C TFH, Pershing, t--; cum 238K 5/25;
  • 37939, loc/A, BR, Boxer 4A MBH, Pershing, t--; cum 123K 5/25;
  • 37940, loc/A, BR, Boxer 4B TFH, Pershing, t--; cum 99K 5/25;

Production profiles:

  • 37940:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2025312038720554233554206641161634
BAKKEN4-2025302714027007290615169950474831
BAKKEN3-202527
  • 30486
30401318785563254364945
BAKKEN2-20251483898450107251772617161259
BAKKEN1-2025311298612859155662368723018401
BAKKEN12-20240000000
BAKKEN11-2024308383858659059

  • 37939:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2025312569925906155845603054983799
BAKKEN4-20253033817336391870365839645391036
BAKKEN3-20253135410354593782659641582701098
BAKKEN2-2025282856628341336905106649827980
BAKKEN1-20250000000
BAKKEN12-20240000000
BAKKEN11-2024000599838038
  • 37924:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2025317135716595172319022616343
BAKKEN4-20253074867526118343164631086229
BAKKEN3-20253196509663134704404143308293
BAKKEN2-2025281139911375133632971628675753
BAKKEN1-2025311111211313110723908338371337
BAKKEN12-20243029686297472869163936606972665
BAKKEN11-20243034380343363174976657747031135
BAKKEN10-20243039223393393415781570795151216
BAKKEN9-20243037628376443293872651702811155
BAKKEN8-20243139837394293685272162699461331
BAKKEN7-202481114611204103372415423805343
BAKKEN6-202439692998037162188421578300
BAKKEN5-2024315084950695480769023489604609
BAKKEN4-20243010139984982061306912742305
BAKKEN3-202431007346000
BAKKEN2-20249000000
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Five New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; One Permit Canceled -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48687B.

WTI: $67.89. Up 2%, some say due to Houthis hitting second cargo ship in the Red Sea.

Active rigs: 32.

Five new permits, #42092, - #42096, inclusive:

  • Operator: Zavanna.
  • Field: Stoney Creek (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Zavanna has permits for five Boxer wells, NENW 22-155-100, 

Three permits renewed:

  • XTO: three Prairie Federal permits, Haystack Butte, McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 41431, Neptune Operating, a Gullickson LE permit, McKenzie County/
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OpenAI Goes With Nvidia -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48686CHIPS.

AI: more proof, if you needed any, for investors, the story is real.

These companies have a lot of money and are consolidating -- this is like the Bakken boom. During the early stages of the boom, time is money and companies need to be fast to stake what they need. Later on, in the manufacturing stage, after the boom itself, deals will be fewer in number and it takes longer to close for many reasons. Earlier in the AI boom, the Mag-7 bought a lot of the upstarts, but now it's the second-tier companies that are buying upstarts, let's call these second-tier companies the Next-33. 33+7 = Coatue's Fantastic 40.  

NVDA: look at this -- this is huge -- 

I don't think folks get it. Chips don't equal chips -- first of all there are at least four main classes: CPUs, GPUs, storage; and NPUs. Those four classes are not interchangeable. To some extent, within a class, chips made by one company are interchangeable with chips made by another company, and a lot of folks feel there may not be a lot of difference. I don't know. But once someone has "name recognition," let's say Nvidia, even if AMD's chips are just as good, a lot of folks are going to go with Nvidia vs AMD simply due to "name recognition." Sort of like Hertz and #2 Avis in the old days. And, exactly like brand name Coca-Cola and generic cola.


TSMC: link here to Beth --

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North Dakota's Re-Districting Map Upheld By Federal Appeals Court -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48685ND.

Link here. This is an interesting case. If you can't get past The Bismarck Tribune paywall, link here to US News.

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Fracking Sand Back In The News -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48684SAND.

My hunch: this story is coming out of Pennsylvania and the sand was shipped from Minnesota.

Fracking sand is tracked here. Some call it fraccing sand. Others call it fracing sand. Whatever.  

Reliance Well Services, LLC. 

The Illinois Basin is tracked here. Wiki here. Maybe something Yuval Noah Harari should read.

From x, link here. 


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Manic Monday -- July 7, 2025

Locator: 48683B.

AI: more proof, if you needed any, for investors, the story is real, see below. These companies have a lot of money and are consolidating -- this is like the Bakken boom. During the early stages of the boom, time is money and companies need to be fast to stake what they need. Later on, in the manufacturing stage, after the boom itself, deals will be fewer in number and take longer to close for many reasons. Earlier in the AI boom, the Mag-7 bought a lot of the upstarts, but now it's the second-tier companies that are buying upstarts, let's call these second-tier companies the Next-33. 33+7 = Coatue's Fantastic 40.  

NVDA: by the way, before we get to the CoreWeave / Core Scientific story -- next to follow, look at this:

CoreWeave to buy Core Scientific: a $9-billion deal.


Some Fortune 500 companies with a $9-billion market cap. In addition, one can find many other companies with a market cap of $9 billion, at this link:

  • TD Synnex
  • Onto Innovation
  • Assurant
  • Mohawk Industries

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.61. Up $1.12.

"Planeloads" of Russians touch down in Iraq to secure oil deals and expand its influence according to an article over at oilprice. 

Are we starting to see three sub-spheres of influence in the Mideast region: Trump-Saudi Arabia; Iran-China; Iraq-Russia?

New wells:

  • Tuesday, July 8, 2025: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 446 for the year,
    • 40888, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F XS 2H, 
  • Monday, July 7, 2025: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 445 for the year,
    • 40865, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 4H,
    • 40549, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-5
    • 40548, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-4, 
  • Sunday, July 6, 2025: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 452 for the year,
    • 41248, conf, CLR, Thornson FIU 13-28H1,
    • 39547, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 5,
    • 39546, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 4,
    • 39545, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 3, 
  • Saturday, July 5, 2025: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 448 for the year,
    • 40886, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 10TFH, 

Hunt Oil's Clearwater wells will be tracked here. Memo to self: track Hunt Oil's Redmond wells, located in the same Hunt Oil Clearwater area.

RBN Energy: Appalachia gas production growth tied to takeaway adds, in-basin power needs. Archived.

The Marcellus/Utica has massive natural gas reserves, but daily, weekly and annual production in the three-state shale play is limited by three key factors: in-region demand, takeaway capacity and gas prices. In recent years, the basin’s output has been rangebound between 34 and 36 Bcf/d and Appalachian producers see only modest gains in 2025. But a handful of pipeline projects and rising gas demand from power generators suggest the Marcellus/Utica may finally be on the verge of a production breakout. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the leading E&Ps’ production forecasts for 2025 and the prospects for considerably higher output by the end of this decade. 

This is the third blog in our series on recent upstream and midstream activity in the Marcellus/Utica. In Part 1, we noted that while the shale play’s gas production soared from less than 2 Bcf/d to more than 33 Bcf/d in the 2010s, its output through the first half of the 2020s has stayed close to flat, averaging about 35 Bcf/d over that period — ~24 Bcf/d from the NGL-rich “wet” Marcellus/Utica in southwestern Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and eastern Ohio and ~11 Bcf/d from the “dry” Marcellus in northeastern Pennsylvania. The primary hurdle to further growth has been takeaway capacity; there hasn’t been enough space on the pipelines out of Appalachia to move more of the shale play’s gas to demand centers hundreds of miles away.

In Part 2, we discussed a long list of recently completed, under-construction and planned pipeline projects that provide — or soon will provide — additional egress. These include the 2-Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which started up in June 2024; a host of capacity-enhancement projects along and near the Transco pipeline system that will enable more Marcellus/Utica gas to flow into the Southeast; and the possible construction of the Borealis Pipeline across Ohio (and related improvements to the Texas Gas Transmission system) that would allow more gas to flow south/southwest to Louisiana. We also looked at the three primary drivers for Appalachian gas demand growth in the second half of the 2020s, namely higher in-basin power demand from new data centers, expanding Gulf Coast LNG export volumes, and rising demand for gas in the fast-growing Southeast. Separately, in Family Affair, we discussed Kinder Morgan’s Mississippi Crossing and South System Expansion 4 projects, which would let more Marcellus/Utica gas flow into the Deep South.

Today, we shift our focus to (1) what the leading E&Ps in the nation’s largest gas production area have been saying about their 2025 production and longer-term prospects, and (2) how much production growth the Marcellus/Utica as a whole might experience as gas demand from power generators and other big customers increases.

Before we begin, we should note that gas demand in the Eastern U.S. soared the week of June 22, when New England, the Mid-Atlantic states, the Southeast and the Midwest suffered through their first major heat wave of 2025. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the PJM Interconnection, the largest wholesale electricity market in the country (reaching from northern Illinois to New Jersey to northeastern North Carolina), experienced near-record demand of more than 160,000 megawatts (MW) on June 23 (see Figure 1 below), and that gas-fired plants provided 44% (or ~71,000 MW) of the power being consumed then. Electricity demand in New England approached record levels the following day, with gas plants providing 47% of the power.

Power Demand in the PJM Interconnection, June 16-24

Figure 1. Power Demand in the PJM Interconnection, June 16-24 (in megawatts, or MW). Source: EIA 

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