Monday, January 8, 2018

Off The Net For Awhile -- Will Not Get To Comments Or E-Mail For Several Hours, Later Tonight -- January 8, 2018

Sophia and I are getting ready to watch the NCAAF championship game.

Meanwhile, it is being reported that one-third of NFL fans boycotted the NFL football this season.

Another statistic, sent to me by a reader, link for recreational vehicle deliveries:

After seeing the graphic, Elon Musk was heard to say, "After we build the pick-up, we're going to build an EV RV. I've been thinking about that for years. I'm dying to build an EV RV. I've been thinking about an EV RV ever since I was a kid."

New Operator In North Dakota: 31 Operating, LLC -- January 8, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs543958165193

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (6); Eagle Operating; Whiting
  • Fields: East Fork (Williams); Wildcat (Renville); Sioux (McKenzie)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 6-well Peterson pad in NENW 29-156-99;
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32375, 531, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 144-97-6A-7-2H, 
  • 32753, 2,556, XTO, Bear Creek Federal 31X-3C,
Two permits canceled:
  • Windridge: two Goldeneye permits in Burke County
Wells transferred: from Petro Harvester Operating to 31 Operating, LLC;
  • website here
  • all wells are located in Kuroki oil field
  • appears to be first mention of 31 Operating, LLC, in North Dakota 
  • website today does not mention North Dakota -- 31 Operating is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas from properties located in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Colorado.
  • 28 oil and gas permits/wells
  • all in Bottineau County
  • oldest permit: #1260
  • more recent permit: #21624

NBC Endorses Oprah Winfrey For US President, 2020 -- January 8, 2018; Complaining About Trump All The Way To The Bank

Save for the archives.

I was unaware that she had declared. I guess she gave her declaration speech last evening in front of the California DNC annual January convention. The next California DNC convention is scheduled for March 4, 2018.

Complaining About Trump All The Way To The Bank

Remember, nothing prevents one from paying taxes under rules and rates of the Obama administration, especially if already underpaying one's secretary. From Bloomberg:
Berkshire (aka, "Warren Buffett") to reap an estimated $37 billion bump from Trump's tax cut.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is poised to report a huge increase in the yardstick that Warren Buffett uses to measure progress at his conglomerate, thanks to the recent changes in U.S. tax law.

Book value, a measure of assets minus liabilities, probably rose by 12 percent or $37 billion in the final three months of the year, analysts from Barclays Plc wrote in a note to clients on Monday. The one-time increase will result from Berkshire lowering its tax liability on appreciated investments.

Due to the tax cut, Berkshire’s operating earnings power -- the money it makes at its dozens of subsidiaries like Geico and BNSF Railway -- could rise by 12 percent on an ongoing basis, the Barclays analysts wrote. Last week, Morgan Stanley analysts put the increase at about 14 percent.

Berkshire has long been seen as a major beneficiary of a lower U.S. corporate tax rate, helping to drive the company’s Class A shares up 22 percent last year. They closed above $300,000 for the first time on January 4, 2018.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Again, investing in American is an open-book test.

On another note, from Barron's:
CenturyLink had a tough 2017, and the stock has fallen more than 32% in the past 12 months.
However, Goldman Sachs believes that the worst may be over for the beleaguered wireline firm.
Analyst Brett Feldman and his team upgraded the shares from Sell to Neutral on Monday, although he also lowered his target price from $19 to $17. He writes that he doesn't see additional downside for the stock, while it could deliver as much as a 13% total return, given its hefty 12.6% yield. Feldman believes that the dividend payout, while high, still looks sustainable and attractive, thanks to synergies from CenturyLink's acquisition of Level 3 Communications.

US Natural Gas Demand -- Setting All-Time Records -- Making America Great Again -- January 8, 2018

From the EIA, January 5, 2018:

Playing Around With Maps And The New Williston International Airport -- January 8, 2018

I'm just having a bit of fun with this. I'm not sure I have the correct well or the correct location, but I think I'm correct, and, if not, pretty close.

Disclaimer: this is for my entertainment. It could be "way wrong." Don't quote me on any of this. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

First, a couple of links:
Two runways: the airport will have two runways. Runway 14/32 will be the primary runway and have dimensions 7,500 by 150 feet, while runway 4/22 will be the crosswind runway and measure 4,500 by 75 feet.

The graphics:

First, the aerial view:
Then, from Google maps:

Overlaying the NDIC map:

Zooming out, 6.34 miles, diagonally from old airport to site of new airport:

... And Then Hell Froze Over -- January 8, 2018

From Reuters: German coalition negotiators agree to scrap 2020 climate target: sources.
Germany’s would-be coalition partners have agreed to drop plans to lower carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, sources familiar with negotiations said on Monday -- a potential embarrassment for Chancellor Angela Merkel.  
Due to strong economic growth and higher-than-expected immigration, Germany is likely to miss its national emissions target for 2020 without any additional measures.
Negotiators for Merkel’s conservative bloc and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) told Reuters the parties had agreed in exploratory talks on forming a government that the targeted cut in emissions could no longer be achieved by 2020.
Instead, they would aim to hit the 40 percent target in the early 2020s, the sources said, adding that both parties are still sticking to their goal of achieving a 55 percent cut in emissions by 2030. 
Also at Forbes

I thought it was already too late to save the planet. 

I assume President Trump is getting ready to tweet -- as soon as this is official. LOL.

Most importantly for investors, this will allow the "synchronized global economy" (aka, the Trump rally) to surge.

Colluding With The Russians -- With Whom We Have Sanctions -- When Boston Is Not Burning Oil Brought In From Outside The US, It's Burning Natural Gas From Russia's Siberia -- January 8, 2018


January 10, 2018: see this link for tracking this vessel mentioned in the update following.

January 10, 2018: they must be reading the blog, LOL. Reuters is reporting that "US may get first LNG from Russia despite sanctions --
A vessel that may be carrying liquefied natural gas from Russia's new Yamal LNG export terminal could be heading to the United States despite sanctions against the company that operates the Russian facility.

The tanker Chris. De Margerie picked up a cargo from Novatek PAO's Yamal facility, Russia's second LNG export terminal, on Dec. 9 and dropped it off at National Grid Plc's Isle of Grain LNG facility near London on Dec. 28, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Since then, Engie SA's Gaselys LNG tanker picked up LNG from the UK facility on Dec. 30 and is expected to arrive in Boston on Jan. 22.
It is possible that some of the LNG on the Gaselys is from Yamal, according to a report by S&P Global Platts. Reuters has not independently verified that report, but the shipping data does show the routes the tankers are taking. The final destination could change.
Later, 2:30 p.m. CT: from a reader, follow the money, the jobs, the politics; this is nothing about saving the environment:
There has been a somewhat trivial 24 inch, 175 mile long pipeline called the Pilgrim Pipeline proposed to run from Albany to the refineries in Linden, NJ.
This pipeline was slated to colocate with existing Right of Ways (electrical transmission lines, roads, etc) for maybe 80/90% of its route. 
Products would be Bakken oil brought in by CBR and heating fuel, gasoline and other refined products brought back north. 
No more dramatic ice breaking to deliver life -ustaining fuel.
Pipeline never approved. 
Original Post

This story is so incredible on so many levels, it needs reposting. From Bloomberg:
Not many people had expected the U.S. to turn to Europe for natural gas this winter.
Yet the polar chill that gripped the U.S. East Coast this month, and sent spot prices to records, has led to a tanker loading a cargo of liquefied natural gas in the U.K. for Boston, some of which was likely produced by a project in Siberia targeted by U.S. financial curbs.
The Gaselys tanker is due to arrive in Boston on Jan. 22 after loading fuel from storage tanks at the U.K.’s Isle of Grain, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessel docked at Grain shortly after the terminal near London received the first cargo from the $27 billion Yamal LNG plant in Russia’s icy north. 
“Gas from anywhere is profitable into that northeastern U.S. gas market as prices are the highest in the world,” said Trevor Sikorski, head of natural gas, coal and carbon at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London.
The arrival from the U.K. would make it the first LNG reload into the U.S. since a cargo from the tanks of the Huelva terminal in Spain was imported in June 2014, according to data through October from the U.S. Department of Energy. U.S. imports of the super-chilled fuel, mostly into Boston from Trinidad and Tobago, have dropped since exports started from the Gulf of Mexico coast in 2016.
Isle of Grain terminal operator National Grid Plc said it doesn’t comment on the intentions of gas shippers using its facilities. It’s not immediately clear who owns the cargo. [But pretty easy to guess.]
U.S. domestic demand climbed to a record last week as snow and winds bombarded Americans on the East Coast. Temperatures tonight in Boston may fall to as low as 15 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 9 degrees Celsius), with a cold outlook persisting through this month, according to AccuWeather Inc.
I wonder what ol' Ben Franklin would think of this craziness. I think he was close enough to ride a horse, or even walk, to the Marcellus fields west of Boston.

The Road To Australia

And at the other end of the spectrum, now it's Australia paying upwards of $500/MWh for electricity in sweltering weather. Dynamic link here.

Renewable energy and Elon Musk's batteries apparently were not the answer ...

Canadian CBR -- Booming -- January 8, 2018

This is a big story on several levels. Re-posting:

CBR: some, including me, thought CBR was dead. Not so fast. Rail shipments of Canadian oil to US seen rising over 60 percent.
Canadian crude shipments to the United States by rail could rise more than 60 percent this year on demand by Gulf Coast refiners for the heavy crudes and the wide differential between Canadian grades and the U.S. benchmark.
The rail shipments could reach as much as 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) by year end and average some 400,000 bpd in 2019, estimated analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Last year, the shipments averaged 130,000 bpd, according to U.S. government data.
Canadian crudes have been replacing heavy oil from Venezuela and Mexico at the Gulf Coast, due to production declines in both countries.
But look at this. This is what the "no-pipeline-policy" in Canada is costing them:
Western Canada Select for February delivery traded Thursday at $25.05 per barrel below West Texas Intermediate, the widest since December 2014. Including transportation costs of between $11 and $14 a barrel to ship the crude by rail to the Gulf Coast, it is affordable to more refiners, said analysts and traders.
"Based on where the differentials are today, as an oil producer, you're incentivized to ship product by rail to the Gulf Coast," said Matt Murphy, a Tudor Pickering researcher.
The current differential is driven in part by increased supplies. Canadian crude oil production averaged 4.2 million barrels per day in 2017, according to National Energy Board estimates, up from 3.9 million bpd in 2016.
Production is expected to rise further this year as new projects like Suncor Energy's 190,000 bpd Fort Hills oil sands plant expand operations.
However, the increase in shipments will be capped by railroad operators' willingness to accept spot deliveries. Companies such as Canadian National Railway, have insisted on long-term crude-by-rail commitments before providing more rail capacity.
And more at the link.

The Market And Energy Page, And Other Stuff, T+352 -- January 8, 2018; Visa Launches Expanded Matching Program For 401(k)s -- Cites Trump's Tax Plan


Later, 10:55 p.m. CT: from a reader -- why we are seeing a surge in natural gas for electricity generation:
Regarding New England ... temperatures warming up (30 degrees or so) freeing up natgas for heating to be used for power generation.

LNG from Arctic region - Yamal - offloaded in UK a few days ago and partially re-loaded onto tanker Gaselys. This ship is now headed to Boston to supply the Everett LNG terminal.
Story at Bloomberg.
Another Bloomberg story, from 2016 -- Boston and the road to New England -- "The US has more gas than it needs and Boston is importing."
The U.S. is grappling with the biggest glut of natural gas in four years. And you wouldn’t know it from the number of tankers bringing supplies of the fuel into the Northeast.
Original Post

Bakken wells: Data for wells coming off confidential list this week has been posted; not all data has been posted by NDIC yet this morning.

A record-breaking Bakken well: previously discussed -- this well should be a record-breaking Bakken well
  • 33398, 3,291, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, 2 sections; Three Forks B1, 51 stages; 8.6 million lbs; sections 14/23-150-93; TD = 21,419;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Three things to note about that WPX Hidata North well:
  • it was NOT a 3-section long lateral as some suggested; it was only a standard long lateral, the kind that is the norm in the Bakken;
  • it did not use an inordinate amount of proppant and the number of stages, although high, not incredibly high; and, finally,
  • it was a Three Forks, upper bench, well

Active rigs in North Dakota:

Active Rigs543958165193

RBN Energy: refined-product delivery and storage infrastructure in Mexico, part 2.

Holy mackerel: Visa announces a huge 401(k) matching program with passage of new tax bill. Huge, huge deal. Details still developing. Link here.

Peak oil? Not! Hess announces sixth oil discovery offshore Guyana, further increasing resource potential. Exxon calls this their "sixth home run" in this play. Wow.


CBR: some, including me, thought CBR was dead. Not so fast. Rail shipments of Canadian oil to US seen rising over 60 percent.
Canadian crude shipments to the United States by rail could rise more than 60 percent this year on demand by Gulf Coast refiners for the heavy crudes and the wide differential between Canadian grades and the U.S. benchmark.
The rail shipments could reach as much as 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) by year end and average some 400,000 bpd in 2019, estimated analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Last year, the shipments averaged 130,000 bpd, according to U.S. government data.
Canadian crudes have been replacing heavy oil from Venezuela and Mexico at the Gulf Coast, due to production declines in both countries.
Record: Hettinger, ND, set the low-temperature record around the world the other day, and received no national media exposure as far as I know. But, New Hampshire's Mt Washington comes in second and gets huge national media exposure. Linked at the Drudge Report. Drudge missed Hettinger, ND.

The road to Europe: higher energy costs. Russia announces higher shipments of crude oil to China. Could decrease amount sent to Europe resulting in higher crude oil expenses for oil.

Poll: closing out this poll in which we asked, do you agree that the opioid crisis is the #1 story in the Bakken in 2017?
  • yes: 14%
  • no: 86%
New poll, if given the choice between only two, will your next pick-up be a diesel Ford F-150, or a Tesla EV pick-up?

Slow news day: CNBC spending an ungodly number of minutes on a non-story -- teachers in California blaming Apple for teenage suicides. Let's see how legalization of recreational use of marijuana affects California children

ISO New England: this is the first time I've seen this phenomenon in the recent cold snap in New England -- percentage of natural gas surging over percentage of oil being used to provide electricity.


The Hudson Freezes Over -- And Look What They Are Worried About -- Oil And Heating Oil. Link here with video:
The Hudson River.
Ice, ice, ice, as far as the eye can see.
“It’s vital that we keep these navigation channels open… we’ve got to keep them open to get the heating oil and other products down river so they can get out to the people who need them most,” said Steve Strohmaier, U.S. Coast Guard Public Affairs Officer.
Heating oil is a precious commodity, especially right now in the state of New York when many are in short supply. [Because CAVE dwellers refused to put in pipelines that don't freeze.]
“About 90% of that heating oil that we use in the Northeast is brought in by tug and barge,” Strohmaier said.
A reader notes: they are hauling oil on barges down the Hudson River day in, day out. And no one says a thing. Where are the all the Steyer-Soros-DAPL protestors. What a bunch of hypocrites.