Monday, November 2, 2026

The Midnight Hour -- November 2, 2026

Locator: 52078AAPL.  

Pageviews: 112,118,466 -- a 24-hour run rate of 1,227,464. 

Status: currently on an incredibly bumpy red-eye flight, somewhere over the Rocky Mountains; the pilot did not mention anything but the back-end crew said the inbound flight they were just on was incredibly bumpy; told us to strap in and hold on. They weren't kidding.

Items that might be driving the run rate:

  • Apple's earnings
  • the book page: Etty Hillesum; Hunter S Thompson
  • the breakdown of US fighters/bombers 

Apple's earnings -- much, much more here.  

Greed vs fear? Nope. Simple craziness. Here's the headline:

Here's the verbiage in the story:

On the earnings call, Apple said it expects revenue to increase between 7% and 10% on an annual basis in the December quarter, compared to the 6.1% average analyst estimate. Comment: 10% is well ahead of 6% -- and Apple tends to be conservative in its estimates. 

The company’s gross margin forecast for the current quarter is 45% to 46%, trailing the 46.3% average estimate. Comment: 46% estimate vs 46.3% estimate and, again, Apple, tends to be conservative in their estimates.

By the first of December, something else will come along affecting Apple's share price. And so it goes. 

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The Book Page

Re-posting: 

Etty Hillesum

The "adult" Anne Frank.

From an earlier post over at my literature blog: this softcover was packed away some years ago. 

Etty Hillesum: An Interrupted Life and Letters from Westerbork, with a foreword by Eva Hoffman, c. 1996. 
---bought another copy at a used bookstore, Portland, OR, October 30, 2026, softcover, $5.
-- Eva Hoffman, born in Poland, 1945, about the time Etty Hillesum died
-- emigrated to Canada at age 13; Harvard graduate; ultimately the pinnacle of American writing. 
More. connecting with Hunter S Thompson -- link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/9IbLNIIdtt4LVnZaW.  
 
In Etty's Diary and Letters, softcover, page 102:
Slowly but surely I have been soaking Rilke up these last few months: the man, his work, and his life. And that is probably the onlky right way with literature, with study, with people, or with anything dlse: to let it all soak in, to let it mature slowly inside you until it has become a part of yourself That, too, is a growing rocess. Everything is a growing process. And in between, emotions and sensations taht strike uou iek lightning. But still the most imprtant thing is the organis process of growing.
Etty would die in a German-Polish concentration /extermination camp (Auschwitz) within a year or so of writing that in her diary, and she knew it, and yet she remained at peace with circumstances and able to keep writing with an element of optimism, if not for her, for the human race.
 
Meanwhile, my Rilke at about the same age (for me) was Hunter S Thompson who wrote when the hope of the counterculture of 60s died in the early 70s.  

"The Wave Speech" from Hunter S Thompson's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, 1971.

"We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. . . . So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."

For Tuesday Morning -- Posted Monday Night, November 2, 2026

Locator: 52077B.  

Oil demand to peak 2035 - 2040, link here. 

And yet Valero is likely to spend upwards of $500 million to re-start production from a mothballed refinery along the coast. It's hard to believe Valero would spend that kind of money if the "end is near." Link here.

Valero Energy is paying $320.5 million to purchase LyondellBasell’s mothballed refinery on the Houston Ship Channel, with plans to restart 165 Mb/d of light, sweet crude processing at the site by the end of 2027. 

The deal, announced on October 30, 2026, comes after years of U.S. refinery closures and highlights the Gulf Coast’s advantages as a refining hub. Restarting an idled plant takes money, time and a clear operating plan, and Valero’s approach figures to be one of the fastest ways to add a substantial block of refining capacity at an economically justifiable cost.

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $96.65.

New wells reporting: 

  • Wednesday, November 4, 2026: 4 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 569 for the year, 
    • 41909, conf, Devon Energy, Owan Trust North 29-28-27F 2H, 
  • Tuesday, November 3, 2026: 3 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 568 for the year, 
    • 42702, conf, WGO Resources, Moe 1-34,   

RNB Energy: Kinder Morgan’s Southeast Connector charts a new path to the heart of the south. Link here. Archived.

Efforts by midstream companies to add natural gas pipeline capacity into and through the U.S. Southeast took a big leap forward recently when Kinder Morgan sanctioned plans for the Southeast Connector, a greenfield, 48-inch-diameter pipeline that will serve customers across Middle Tennessee, northeastern Alabama and northwestern Georgia. 

And don’t forget, Kinder is also expanding part of its Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP), which will be a primary supplier to the Southeast Connector near Nashville; building the Mississippi Crossing project; and expanding the Southern Natural Gas (SNG) pipeline system it co-owns with utility giant Southern Company. 

In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the Southeast Connector project and why it’s not hyperbole to call it a game-changer. 

As we said earlier this year in The Big Picture, the southeasternmost states in the South — from west to east, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina — account for only 0.4% (~ 400 MMcf/d) of total U.S. natural gas production but a full 12% (~11 Bcf/d) of U.S. gas demand, mostly due to their heavy (and growing) reliance on gas-fired power generation and (especially in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi) a lot of industrial demand too.

Gas-demand growth in the region has been coming on fast and furious over the past few years, stressing the legacy gas pipeline networks there and resulting in the SNG/SONAT, Florida Zone 3 and Transco Zone 4 price trading points — primary indicators of gas prices in our five-state focus area — being among the very few points where gas is priced at a premium to Henry Hub.

Put simply, pipeline capacity into and through the Southeast has barely kept up with gas demand growth. The key pipeline systems that deliver gas to the region from:

  • the Gulf Coast (onshore and offshore):
  • the Midcontinent and, increasingly, 
  • the Marcellus/Utica.

 These pipelines include:

  • Transco, 
  • Texas Eastern Transmission,
  • Tennessee Gas Pipeline, 
  • Texas Gas Transmission, 
  • Columbia Gulf, 
  • Southeast Supply Header, 
  • Gulf South, 
  • Midwestern Gas Transmission,
  • SNG, 
  • Gulfstream, and 
  • Florida Gas Transmission.

The USAF Fighters / Bombers -- November 2, 2026

Locator: 52076USAF.  
Locator: 52003USAF. 

Re-posting. This may be useful in the not too distant future.  

The F-35 Lightning II: the quarterback.

  • multi-role stealth fighter
  • advanced sensors to network the entire battlespace
  • shares targeting data with other forces
  • short range, low payload
  • Pentagon announced today (October 22, 2026) it will almost double procurement of the F-35 with new orders, link here; 
    • will more than double the number of "combat-coded" F-35s;
  • currently: 544 F-35As; only about 344 are designated as "combat-coded" 

The F-15EX: running back — think Emmitt Smith, the league’s all-time leading rusher

  • non-stealth 
  • 29,500 lbs total payload
    • 100% external (23 hardpoints)
    • up to 12 A/A missiles standard (up to 22 via advanced racks), or
    • heavy outsized hypersonic missiles
  • monster of an offensive fighter/bomber
    • my primary a/c in the USAF for 30 years 

The B-1 Lancer: tight end -- non-stealth -- think Travis Kelce (think KC chiefs; Taylor Swift's husband)

  • currently about 45; major reduction of 17 airframes in 2021; Dyess AFB (Abilene, TX) and Ellsworth AFB (Rapid City, SD)
    • was bomber stationed at RAF Fairford, England, before brought back early due to security concerns 
  • supersonic heavy bomber (non-stealth)
  • carriers largest conventional payload of any US bomber
  • can rapidly rush massive amounts of precision ordnance to a theater at supersonic speeds
  • zero radar-evading stealth capabilities
  • payload 
    • 125,000 lbs total payload
    • 24 internal cruise missiles (JASSM) or 84 conventional bombs (Mk-82)
    • largest payload of any US bomber  

The B-2 Spirit: the wide receiver -- stealth -- think CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)

  • the FedEx bomber of the USAF
    • when you positively, absolutely have to take out a deep subterranean target overnight 
  • penetrating strategic stealth bomber
  • can fly completely undetected through the world's most advance air defense networks
  • can deliver heavy conventional or nuclear ordnance anywhere on Earth
  • fewer than 20 air frames active; extremely fragile, high maintenance radar-absorbent skin
    • Whiteman, Missouri. 
  • payload: 
    • 40,000 lbs total payload (all internal, stealth)
    • up to 16 nuclear bombs (B61/B83) or two 30,000-lb GBU-57 bunker busters
    • only a/c capable of carrying the massive deep-penetrating bunker busters into denied space

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The B-52: The Old Workhorse 

The B-52: fullback.

Think: Larry Csonka, greatest living, currently active / retired NFL fullback. 

The B-52: early in my USAF career I had one 12-hour night flight over the Rocky Mountains.

  • prototype first flew, April 15, 1952
  • delivered to the USAF, operational: 1955

Larry Csonka:

  • born December 25, 1946
  • college: 1965
  • NFL: 1968 

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The Book Page

"The Wave Speech" from Hunter S Thompson's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, 1971.

"The Wave Speech" Or "The High-Water Mark Speech."

"We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. . . . So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."

All-You-Can-Eat -- Coming Back -- WSJ -- November 2, 2026

Locator: 52075B.  

Restaurants: link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $96.46. Price of oil falls because Iran 

  • is ready to declare peace if the US -- 
    • ends the Iran embargo;
    • pays reparation costs to Iran;
    • unfreezes all Iranian funds held by the US; and, 
    • four more conditions. 
  • Of course, no one believes any of this happens, but it delays (and maybe prevents further bombing of Iran). 
  • Chevron:
    • triples their profits on $100-oil;
    • likely to face severe challenges on $96-oil.

Active rigs: 38.

Two new permits -- #43445 - #43446, inclusive --

  • Operator: Formentera Operations;
  • Field: Larson, Burke County;
  • Comments:
    • Formentera Operations has permits for a Davidson well and a Lari well, both SESW 23-162-94; 
      • to be sited 525 FSL and 1810 / 1845 FWL. 

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

  • 37225, 237, XTO, Kulczyk 43X-17AXB, Williams County.  

Apple -- AAPL -- Crushes Earnings -- 4Q26 -- Reported / Posted November 2, 2026

Locator: 52074AAPL.  
Locator: 52074APPLE. 

It just gets better and better. Think about this. While every other tech company in the news is having cash flow problems and taking on more debt, Apple seems to be the outlier -- returning the company's entire operating cash flow to shareholders -- through dividends and stock buybacks. Short term I prefer dividends but long term the stock buybacks will mean a whole lot more. Interestingly enough, shares are "cheap" right now, and not paying out cash for the dividends those stock buybacks prevent -- whoo-hoo! Record quarters: link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/znGPyzdECGbZ9utoc. 


Operating cash flow
: Intel, Apple, and Dell — https://share.google/aimode/dAGPTRadubIVux2eT.

We can discuss this forever. This is a quarter for the record books on so many levels. Go Apple. 

Intel, Dell?

Did I read somewhere this was a September quarter (4Q) revenue record for Apple? Yes. See below. Highest-ever revenue haul for a September quarter driven by a strong initial rollout of the iPhone 18 Pro series. iPhone sales hit a historic high specifically for the September period. Imagine what sales would have been had there been no memory shortage.

Links and reports everywhere. Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/bL64fYZoSQXHBZ9fQ.  


Memory shortages:

 
Cash flow: all of it returned to shareholders --

Memory -- DRAM Capacity -- Update -- Exabytes And Zettabytes -- November 2, 2026

Locator: 52073AI.  

Shay, Google's backlog -- link. Link here: https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2117239774461444126.  

Shay: link here --  

Query: see above -- UBS projects dram capacity to grow ~147% by 2030 reaching ~89 eb. What is eb?

Link here. Or here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/m49qCEbRcrhtPVCrp. 

In a word search of this blog, which has been around since 2009, and in which I talk extensively about tech, I have only used the word exabyte or exabytes twice, once with regard to NSA, once in 2025, and once in 2013: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search?q=exabyte.  


 

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Google

Link here. 

Simple Search --> AI --> Agentic AI --> Superintelligence -- November 2, 2026.

Locator: 52072AI.  

After clicking on these sites, remember to scroll to the top. 

Simple google search --> AI --> agentic AI --> SI. Link here. Link:  https://share.google/aimode/gPk6Wzr2mZsAiNLdM. 

Politicians misusing the concept of superintelligence. Are they being sly like a fox or simply ignorant? Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/wzHFRfMUWIoLa76l4.