Friday, January 3, 2025

The Life And Times Of Net Zero Banking -- We Hardly Knew Ye -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44608NETZERO.

This net-zero banking story sure turned out to be a bigger story than I ever thought it would be.

Talk about capitalism at work. 

Once one US bank stepped back from net-zero banking, the dominoes began to fall immediately.

This was posted earlier:

Net-zero banking? Dead. Link here. Along with ESG and DEI.

 And now today, link here.

The whole house of cards, to mix metaphors, is now going to fall, in quick succession.

This reminds me a lot of "the wall" coming down in 1989 -- the Berlin Wall.

Some, by the way, are equating the "return" of Donald Trump as significant as "the fall of the Berllin Wall." We'll get back to that later. See this post.

*******************************
Word of the Day

Obrigado.

Link here.

*************************
The Book Page

Portable Magic: A History of Books and their Readers, Emma Smith, c. 2022. 

Another great book, bought sight unseen and not a bit unsatisfied. A top shelf book in this genre.

My notes will be posted here

*****************************
The Fine Arts Page

Is this not sublime? Link here.

**************************
A Musical Interlude

Link here. This one absolutely makes my day! 

Stage direction in Shakespeare's All's Well That Ends Well.

"Tucket" is the English version of the Italian word toccata, from toccare, meaning to touch. In Renaissance Italy a "toccata" was also the royal or noble declaration. [It might be used to alert the audience something important was about to happen -- perhaps the riders were being called to mount, or perhaps royalty was about to enter stage right.]  Its attention-getting style- so tuneful and attractive -- was soon to be adopted in teh early seventeenth century, in compositions of music, such as those of Corelli [Arcangelo Corelli, 1653 - 1713, some four decades after Shakespeare was writing] and Bach [J.S. Bach, 1685 - 1750 -- some seventy-five years after Shakespeare was writing.]

The toccata originated in northern Italy (think Tuscany, Florence) in the late Renaissance period (15th and 16th centuries). Shakespeare was writing in the late 16th century, early 17th century).


Folks are probably more familiar with this version

So, if toccatas were originally written for organ, brilliant that Shakespeare turned to trumpets for his plays. Wow.  

According to Richard Paul Roe, p. 199, "a tucket is a run of tuneful notes, generally on a trumpet."

Again, using a precise word.

Top Stories Of The Week -- Week 52: December 29, 2024 -- December 31, 2024

Locator: 44607TOPSTORIES.

Geoff Simon's quick connects

***************************
Hiatus Between November 5, 2024 - January 20, 2025: Twelve Weeks
Biden-Trump Transition
December 29 - January 5, 2024: Week Nine

The transition works this way, this cycle:

  • Biden's emphasis is on pardons and commutations, making Trump's life as difficult as possible; 
    • setting up Trump for failure; Biden will fade away
    • expresses regret that he dropped out of race; says he could have won (he's 82 years old) 
      • as delusional as he is senile
  • Trump's focus is to look presidential well before inauguration
    • putting his administration (and "Shadow Government") in place;
    • nominations: the big ones have all been named
    • executive orders being drafted
    • US billionaires lining up to meet with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
    • global leaders flying to Mar-a-Lago; Canadians have made their second trip to Mar-a-Lago

The Florida White House:

  • Trump is the president, simply waiting to make it official, January 20th (unchanged from last month)
  • surrounding himself with "self-made billionaires"
  • those billionaires not named to his administration are making pilgrimages to Mar-a-Lago
  • most recent rumor: Bill Gates on his way (I don't think he has gone there yet)
  • entry fee to be part of Trump's inaugural inner circle: $1 million -- Tim Cook most recent to ante that $1-million entry fee.

**********************************
The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

  • two terrorist attacks on US soil within hours of each other to close out Biden's presidency

Top international non-energy story:

  • undersea communications cable mangled off Taiwan

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story:

  • Prime Video has licensed a Melania Trump documentary 
    • to be directed by Brett Ratner
  • Biden's surgeon general says no amount of alcohol is safe, not even wine at communion
    • much less, one small sip of red wine each day
    • does anyone really believe that?
    • yes, both Trump and Biden
  • folks were surprised that it would be cold this winter
  • auto sales for December, 2024, and full year results, released
    • the spin is amazing

Top national energy story:

  • WTI surges; closed just below $74 at the end of the week

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • huge Three Forks "find" in the Bakken
  • back to talking about a trillion-bbl reservoir

Trump 2.0 -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44606TRUMP.

Trump 2.0 is tracked here.

Link here

Ivan Krastev.

From The Atlantic today. Talk about a misreading of American politics.

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Duck Hunting In North Texas

Our granddaughter and her friend, duck hunting, north Texas.

No dog, so they have to retrieve the ducks themselves.


2024 US "Car" Sales Data Is Out -- Some Surprises -- The Biggest Surprise? Mazda -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44605AUTOS.

Updates

January 5, 2025: the top 16 popular pick-up trucks in the USA as reported by Wall Street 24/7 one year ago, thus looking at 2023 figures. Link here. Again, sales figures for 2023:

  • vehicle sales (in US in 2023): 15.5 million
  • pickups against that figure: 2.75 million
  • cars: 3.2 million
  • SUVs: make up most of the rest
  • the pickups
    • 16: Nissan Titan: 19,000 sold; starts at $46,000
    • 15: Rivian R1T: 19,410 sold; starts at $69,900
    • 14: GMC Canyon: 22,458 sold; starts at $36,000
    • 13: Ford Ranger: 32,334 sold; starts at $32,670; y/y sales dropped; worrisome for Ford
    • 12: Hyundai Santa Cruz: 36,675 sold; starts at $26,000; 5,000 max capacity -- not good;
    • 11: Honda Ridgeline: 52,001 sold; starts at $40,000 (2024); 5,000 max towing capacity, also
    • 10: Jeep Gladiator: 55,187 models; questionable design; 4,500 max towing capacity; starts at $39,790 (2024)
    • 9: Nissan Frontier: 58,134 models sold; $30,030 starting price; towing capacity, 6,690 pounds
    • 8: Chevrolet Colorado: Chevy's second most popular pickup; 71,082 modesl sold; $29,500 starting price! Towing capacity of 7,700 pounds -- getting more and more curious about the Ford F-150.
    • 7: Ford Maverick: 94,058 models sold; $23,815 starting price; 1,500 pounds towing capacity; say what?
    • 6: Toyota Tundra: 125,185 models sold; $39,965 starting price; a whopping 11,175 pounds towing capacity.
    • 5: Toyota Tacoma: slightly smaller; 234,768 models sold; $39,400 starting price; towing capacity, 6,500 pounds
    • 4: GMC Sierra: arguably the most luxurious pickup in this list; 295,738 models sold; starting price, $38,300; towing capacity, 13,300 pounds
    • 3: RAM pickup: 444,927 models sold; towing capacity starts at 12,750 pounds; $39,420 starting price;
    • 2: Chevrolet Silverado: 555,148; towing capacity, 13,300 pounds; $36,800 starting price;
    • 1: Ford F-Series: 750,789; 13,500 pounds towing capacity; $36,570 starting price; 

The 2024 stats, reported January 4, 2025: 765,649 F-Series pickups sold in 2024, up 2%.

Link here for 2024 sales:

  • mid-size trucks:
  • Chevrolet Colorado: just fell short of 100,000; up 38%
  • GMC Canyon: 38,215 units sold; up 70%
  • Nissan Frontier: 68,155 units; up 17%
  • Ford Ranger: 46,205; up 43%
  • Ford Maverick: 131,143; up 39%
  • Toyota Tacoma: led the segment, at 192,813, down 18%
  • Jeep's Gladiator: also struggled; 42,000; down 24%

For bigger pickup trucks, link here:

  • Ford F-Series: 765,649, but only because of huge discounts in the 4th quarter to pull this off; full year, a paltry 4.1% increase;
  • Chevy Silverado + GMC Sierra: 874,679 models sold;
  • Chevy Silverado: 549,649
  • GMC Sierra; 324,734; for full year, an
  • Ram Trucks: 373,120; down 7.1%

Original Post

$100,000 cars and light truck sales are increasing, and the meme? The US economy is not doing well.

Link here.

The WSJ article is the best I've seen so far today.

The whole story bores me so I won't be posting much on the blog regarding auto sales but ...

... having said that, this is perhaps my favorite graphic:

Unfortunately we're not told the average downpayment paid, but my hunch: the minimum. Also, we're not told the average length of the loan, and then the actual amount of money folks spend on a new car over time. 

The question is: how do folks pay for these $75,000 vehicles?

This is how.

When I was growing up, my dad, the single wage earner in our family for most of our childhood years, had to pay for college for six children.

Today, the American average number of children: 1.66.

And unlike the 50's and 60's it's not uncommon to have two wage-earners.

Today, college is costing tens of thousands of dollars every semester. And that's for state colleges. A "real" college is costing upwards of $100,000 / year for four years, and maybe even five years. And then graduate school.

Bottom line: a new car is much less expensive than paying for college.

Also not mentioned in the article: cost of insurance. Even if rates had not increased (and they have), insurance premiums are a lot less for a $25,000 sedan than a $100,000 Cybertruck.

And, of course, it goes without saying, that the story about EVs is being mis-reported. Really mis-reported. Outright obfuscation in most cases. 

I'll be tracking this story elsewhere; I'm not going to clutter the Bakken with this nonsense.

One New Permit; Five Permits Renewed; Four Permits Canceled -- January 3, 2025

 Locator: 44604B. 

WTI: $73.96. Just four pennies from $74.

Active rigs: 34.

One new permit, #41478:

  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • EOG has a permit for a Wayzetta well, NWNW 9-153-90, to be sited 1955 FSL and 749 FWL;

Five permits renewed:

  • Oasis, five Domalakes permits, Cottonwood oil field, Burke County.

Four permits canceled:

  • Petro-Hunt (2), two permits in Divide County;
  • Enerplus (2); two permits in Dunn County, a Chimayo permit and a Diablo permit

**************************
Permit of Interest 

  • With regard to the new permit #41478 (see above), one of a few producing, active wells, in that drilling unit, #25093:

25093, 745, EOG, Wayzetta 150-1509H, Parshall, t8/13; cum 870K 11/24; recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024309165105027869736713
BAKKEN10-2024236176384007413704613
BAKKEN9-202425000400
BAKKEN8-2024110029021
BAKKEN7-2024211692071921986161685
BAKKEN6-2024301327140242286338038103
BAKKEN5-2024301467133339692908693105
BAKKEN4-20242910759725589685911997

Early production, an incredible well back in the early days of the Bakken:

BAKKEN6-2015301063210573106415490138341177
BAKKEN5-20153112038120311311159751537196
BAKKEN4-2015301056210700114112389104991398
BAKKEN3-2015311194411850117213360116961158
BAKKEN2-2015281232412358109713248114391350
BAKKEN1-201531151601505168716947148281614
BAKKEN12-2014311750217452126718173164501215
BAKKEN11-2014302024720223144320298185401269
BAKKEN10-201431263262693422472227221513251
BAKKEN9-201418122881214312041083151485429
BAKKEN8-2014312538525090169520098120797864
BAKKEN7-2014312745627307215818837170471639
BAKKEN6-2014292991830048228221279196051538
BAKKEN5-2014273388533893237521911196282157
BAKKEN4-2014284303043838256123791236580
BAKKEN3-201430436904244141332149121170178
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-2014222984931174323414810180212915
BAKKEN12-201321291822894844021099219888913
BAKKEN11-20131622792217938127104809836571
BAKKEN10-201319311693193040151488614535265
BAKKEN9-2013275232651529743424825147399955
BAKKEN8-2013142208021848650319845019783

Trump Is In Charge -- US Representatives Run For Re-Election Every Two Years -- In Other Words, The Next Campaign Has Already Begun -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44603POLITICS.

Wow, the framers of the constitution really got it right.

Two years come (comes) around very, very quickly. Almost every two years. Two times around the sun. 

LOL.

And Mike Johnson won on the first ballot. Apparently fairly easy ... considering:

And, LOL, of course, it was razor-thin. The New York Times stating the obvious. The real story would have been if Johnson would have lost on eighteen votes. As it was, Johnson won on the first vote.

The market immediately after the vote:


Yes, there is a Santa Claus.

Rally. 

LOL.

 

Wow -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44602INVESTING.

Gapping and going: https://x.com/TrendSpider/status/1875191367900819677.



 

Bullet Train(s) -- An Update -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44601BULLETTRAIN.

Just like "my favorite chart," I have "my favorite project."

The California Bullet Train.

The most recent update: link here. I've purposely left the internal links alone in case this article disappears.

The proposed San Francisco to Los Angeles line, managed since 1996 by the California High-Speed Rail Authority, has a checkered history. Estimated costs have ballooned from $33 billion in 2008 to up to nearly $128 billion in 2024. The authority’s 2008 business plan described a system carrying more than 90 million passengers across an 800-mile network annually by 2030; its latest 2024 business plan now projects 28.4 million riders along a 494-mile network by 2040 — if it can find the money to continue building. “We have some significant financial challenges that are ahead of us,” said Anthony Williams, a member of the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s board of directors and director of public policy for Amazon in California.

Delays, cost overruns and management issues came to the fore in a 2018 report from the California state auditor. It faulted the authority for over-reliance on consultants, poor contract management and high turnover among its contract managers. When Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, came into office in 2019, he said in his first state-of-the-state address, “The project, as currently planned, would cost too much and take too long.” He backed away from the aspiration of linking San Francisco, LA, Sacramento and San Diego, committing only to a smaller project in the state’s Central Valley. That’s where construction is underway now, between Bakersfield and Merced, California.

“Historically, doing this kind of thing has never been easy,” said Williams. “We also had some challenges at the beginning about how to get it right.”

Meanwhile, the Brightline West high-speed rail, Las Vegas to the far north side of the LA metro area, is on schedule to be completed within the next three years or so. The best thing about this project: you can drink on your way to Las Vegas, and sober up on the way home.

Brightline West began construction in April. Its 218-mile line from Las Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga, California, about 42 miles east of Los Angeles Union Station, will mainly run in the median of Interstate 15, with intermediate stops in Victor Valley and Hesperia, California. At Rancho Cucamonga, it will connect with commuter railroad Metrolink for those continuing on to other Los Angeles-area destinations. Constructing the line along an existing transportation corridor eased the permitting process and allowed the federal environmental review to speed through. Brightline West aims to complete construction in 2028.

Meanwhile, the Dallas-to-Houston high speed rail is still being considered. Right now, that project looks like a solution to problem that doesn't exist.

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do -- NOT! FEDEX -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44600FEDEX.

FEDEX, link here.

Tailwinds -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44599TAILWINDS.

US oil demand, Reuters

US oil demand, link here. Hitting all-time records. EIA will have to re-look at their estimates going forward. 

Finally! US ends faux-carbon story -- will do what China and India have been doing all along! Timing with the Trump election completely coincidental. LOL. What's really driving this? All that electricity the LDCs are going to need. 

Net-zero banking? Dead. Link here. Along with ESG and DEI.


Also, WSJ link:


Also, the "Rainforest Action Network" is apoplectic:

Hydrogen? Dead. Link here.


FBI
: but there's no connection ... Las Vegas terrorist; Bourbon Street terrorist:

  • both US Army
  • both Ft Bragg (now called Ft Liberty)
  • both rented from same obscure car rental
  • both described as "quiet, good neighbor"

American Exceptionalism -- Something Tells Me They're Not Seeing This In Germany -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44598ARCHIVES.

US unemployment claims: lowest level since March, 2024, almost a year ago. Link here.  Even ZeroHedge couldn't miss this one. We may come back to this chart later. An interesting observation.

Worker productivity in the US: surging. WSJ. Jargon: propensity.

US LNG exports soar. Reuters.

Friday -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44597CATTLE.

Cattle: holy cow! Cattle prices surge to an all-time high. Link here. Well, that's what we wanted, didn't we? FRED ground beef, here.

McDonald's: blue skies, all I see are blue skies! Ticker MCD yesterday:

My favorite chart, link here

GDPNow, link here. 2.6% for 4Q24.

Tesla: sales were horrendous for 4Q24. For the archives.

US Steel: the best thing about this decision, it dispels all doubts about re-electing Trump.

***********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.02.

Wells coming off confidential list:

Sunday, January 5, 2025: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year,

  • None.

Saturday, January 4, 2025: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year,

  • None.
Friday, January 3, 2025: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year,
  • 40081, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-2,
  • 40080, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-3,

RBN Energy: condensate production takes off in eastern Ohio's Utica shale

The Marcellus/Utica is a natural-gas-and-NGLs play, right? Almost entirely, yes. But a handful of dogged, innovative E&Ps have been producing fast-rising volumes of superlight crude — better described as condensate — in the Utica Shale’s “volatile oil window” in eastern Ohio. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recently ramped-up drilling-and-completion activity in that swath of the Buckeye State, the potential for more growth through the second half of the 2020s, and the impact of increasing output on Midwest midstreamers and refiners.

BRK Beats The S&P 500 -- Ninth Straight Year -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44596INVESTING.

Link here.


Random Note On Activity In Killdeer Oil Field, Next To Bailey Oil Field -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44595B.

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported completed today and discussed earlier:

  • 40564, 4,974, MRO, Whitaker 34-11H, Bailey, Dunn County; npd,
  • 40614, 4,989, MRO, Elliot 34-11TFH, Bailey, Dunn County; npd,

The well that is currently still producing, closest to this group of new MRO wells noted above, is 0.25 miles away, situated in a section east of this MRO section, and operated by a different company than MRO:

  • 17976, 110, BR, Patton21-1H, Bailey, t9/09; cum 340K 11/24, note the huge jump in production, from 910 bbls over 29 days (9/24) to 6,206 bbls over 30 days, 11/24. The most recent sundry form is dated August, 2022, and does not provide any helpful information regarding the huge jump in production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202430620659382660000
BAKKEN10-2024171899182317321213861146
BAKKEN9-2024299101111356106368835
BAKKEN8-20243096166945699958340
BAKKEN7-20243192689547498656142
BAKKEN6-202428941114448798359449
BAKKEN5-2024311059900523108164654
BAKKEN4-20243011441150539107664357
BAKKEN3-20243196191844283439848

************************************


Now going to the west, these wells are in the same general area and provide some additional information:

  • 17804, 581/IA, MRO, Gaugler 31-15H, Killdeer, t6/09; cum 438K 11/24; off line now, but the initial production after first being drilled:
BAKKEN1-2010312460243132710618750
BAKKEN12-200931237125433078828820
BAKKEN11-200930266426893759819810
BAKKEN10-20093139173900550114611460
BAKKEN9-20093043134441597145114510
BAKKEN8-20093163956525867218221820
BAKKEN7-20092964796520993209020900
BAKKEN6-200921695161921015209920990
  • 40540, drl/A, MRO, Rex 11-14H, Killdeer, t--; cum 41K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024302873028679490821801917654307
BAKKEN10-20241312238122072942071796816339
  • 40539, drl/A, MRO, Framstad 41-15TFH, Killdeer, t--; cum 52K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024302707427060411461612915803274
BAKKEN10-2024182497524911423761608315263766
  • 40538, drl/A, MRO, Ellestad 41-15H, Killdeer, t--; cum 64K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024303006130062399831794817586305
BAKKEN10-2024233402133934532391898418031890
  • 40537, drl/A, MRO, Chandler 31-15H, Killdeer, t--; cum 49K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024302544425426428011624215913277
BAKKEN10-2024292135421316495691398513271667
BAKKEN9-202452346232949281600149989
  • 40536, drl/A, MRO, Franklin 14-11TFH,Killdeer, t--; cum 67K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024293130231303590292334822870402
BAKKEN10-202427357803568911284921490204031016
  • 40535, drl/A, MRO, Prince 14-11H,Killdeer, t--; cum 92K 11/24;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024302963729678369951939118997332
BAKKEN10-20242749357492317924334155324031637
  • 40534, drl/A, MRO, Decorah 44-10TFH, Killdeer, t--; cum 92K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024303038330415418492116620735363
BAKKEN10-20242946583465715620529378278841396
BAKKEN9-2024614860147532887971636727386
  • 40533, drl/A, MRO, Durkee 44-10H, Killdeer, t--; cum 79K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024303090830899398612306322591397
BAKKEN10-20243031316313544574923873226391153
BAKKEN9-2024816371162532348491928624503
  • 40532, drl/A, MRO, Stella 44-10H, Killdeer, t--; cum 53K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024302259822578522091790317536309
BAKKEN10-2024291774817794510981437413627698
BAKKEN9-20241012614125233560786558112481
  • 40462, drl/A, MRO, Finholt 34-10H, Killdeer, t--; cum 92K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024302318923197365211787517509308
BAKKEN10-20242929448296594314025087237791222
BAKKEN9-20242239520392347584227983262241557
  • 40461, drl/A, MRO, Swenson 24-10H, Killdeer, t--; cum 79K 11/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2024303276432737353922544524924439
BAKKEN10-20242726408264842889421520204021045
BAKKEN9-2024171976819625265411714516054966