Monday, April 20, 2020

Civil Disobedience On Social Media -- April 20, 2020

I don't follow the news or social media often enough to know how fast things are changing, or even if they are changing at all, but if there is talk of social disobedience, this screenshot is as good as any to explain to folks why social disobedience might be an "it."

For the archives. I have no dog in this fight. I don't golf. LOL.

In our apartment complex, we now have 3-year-old kids outside wearing surgical masks. With no one else around except their parents.

On another note, the tea leaves suggest MLB season is "lost" this year. 

Trump Was Correct -- Again -- April 20, 2020

Full transcript from PowerLine:
Evidence is mounting, via antibody tests, that far more people in the U.S. have been infected with the Wuhan virus than has previously been known. The Santa Clara study that Dr. Jay Bhattacharya described here is part of that body of evidence, as is a study released today that covered Los Angeles County:

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.
That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.

*** The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.***

This is great news because it equates to a fatality rate in a range between .0014 and .0027.
Standard seasonal flu viruses typically have a fatality rate around .001. So the evidence increasingly suggests that the Wuhan virus is a little more dangerous than seasonal influenza, but of the same order of magnitude. This would appear to have significant public policy implications.
Be sure to scroll through the comments, especially those with statistics. It's quite staggering how the WHO, CDC, and mainstream media presented this pandemic. The Wuhan flu statistics suggest this may not be worse than seasonal flu, and, oh, by the way, we have a vaccine for "seasonal flu."

Was WTI As Low As Minus $40/Bbl Today? April 20, 2020

Did y'all notice this?

WTI closed at a minus $16.20/bbl. But it was actually worse during the day.

That -$16.20/bbl was actually $21.43/bbl better than it's low. Apparently WTI traded as low as -$37.63/bbl.

One wonders if mom and pop mineral owners will be required to pay operators upwards of $40/bbl? LOL.

WTI Closes: A Negative $16.20/Bbl -- Fast And Furious -- Notes From All Over, Mid-Afternoon Edition -- April 20, 2020

Breaking: Focus On Fracking, April 19, 2020, edition has been posted.
The weekly update is usually posted Sunday; internet access issues accounted for the delay. The official date of the post is April 20, 2020, but "technically" it's the April 19, 2020, edition, at least by my calculations. Macht nichts. It will take me awhile to go through it. The writer highlights two items:
  • The writer estimates US production cuts at 1 million bpd for the next two special insight, the big round number just makes the math easier.
  • OPEC's 9.7 million barrel per day cut was based on October 2018 production...why October 2018? because it was their highest production in 3 years....based on their February production, their cut is closer to 7.2 million barrels per day....they'd have to cut another 9.3 million bpd to balance supply and projected demand...
Oil: fascinating.

Recommendation: keep your gasoline tanks full; don't let them get below 3/4ths or maybe even 7/8ths full. 

PowerLine: link here. The headline -- Saudi Arabian tankers streaming to America. Okay, so what? Where will they unload that oil? Lots of oil storage capacity remains mid-continent US, but I doubt there's much storage along the coast.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse:
WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl. That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand the global trading market.
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs3163594928

Four new permits, #37526 - #37529, inclusive -- the daily activity report only reports two new permits (#37526, #37527) but "well search" suggests there were four new permits as noted below --
  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Dublin
  • Comments:
    • Crescent Point Energy has permits for four Pankake wells in SESE/SWSE 31-158-99, Dublin oil field;
    • the wells will be sited in section 31, but will south into sections 6/7 where is one producing well -- 
    • 21043, 554, Bruin, Pankake 157-99-6A-7-1H, Dubline, t12/11;cum 238K 7/19; offline 8/19; remains offline 2/20;
One permit canceled:
  • Bruin, #25445, Ann H. Thome 5-25-36H; Strandahl oil field;

Tea Leaves Suggest "We" Are Reaching A Tipping Point -- Monday, April 20, 2020

Crash: oilprice server has crashed. I assume the site was overwhelmed with hits. Truly amazing. Third try: in. Other links at the site won't load. -- 1:24 p.m. CT -- April 20, 2020.
If folks don't see this crash as bigger than the 2008 / 2009 crash, .... I mentioned that some time ago. Spot price for OPEC basket was a minus $7 / bbl last week, so WTI has a lot farther to fall. And if anyone missed the story, Saudi Aramco is buying up assets from major European oil companies. If folks haven't listened to the rants in the movie Network, it might be a good time to re-watch the movie.

Lock down: tea leaves suggest "we" are reaching tipping point on nationwide / statewide lock downs. I'm looking for major news by the end of the week.

WTI: tea leaves suggest time for Trump administration to take action against Russia, Saudi Arabia. One item, link here.

Cardinals In Sophia's Back Yard

There are a lot of cardinals in this neighborhood. At least three cardinals -- probably a family -- routinely show up at Sophia's house. On the way to the park we saw another male cardinal.

MRO Reports Two Monster Wells -- Already Choked Back? April 20, 2020

The wells:
  • 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20; a 47K month; note the IP;
  • 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20;
See this post for graphics, neighboring wells, other background information regarding these wells, link here.
Turtles At Local Creek

Feeding the turtles at the local creek.

Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday; WTI At $11.60 -- Historic Crash -- April 20, 2020

WTI: drops to record low of $8.80/bbl in mid-day trading. Could oil go "negative"?

OPEC Basket, April 17, 2020, link here: $18.16.  

OPEC Basket, oilprice, link here:  $17.73.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3263594928

Wells coming off the confidential list today --  

Monday, April 20, 2020: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 282 for the year:
  • 36412, 1,734, EOG, Clarks Creek 47-0706H, Clarks Creek, t10/19; cum 136K 2/10; a 37K month;
  • 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20; a 47K month; note the IP;
  • 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20;
  • 33621, drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 6-1-12TFH, Sand Creek,
Sunday, April 19, 2020: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 278 for the year:
  • 35817, 411, Oasis, Oasis Meiers 5692 11-19 11T, Alger, t11/19; cum 45K 2/20;
  • 35123, loc, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30B, Haystack Butte,
  • 33810, drl, BR, CCU Gopher 8-2-15TFH, Corral Creek,
  • 33623, drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 5-1-12H, Sand Creek,
Saturday, April 18, 2020: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 274 for the year:
  • 35122, drl, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30E, Haystack Butte,
RBN Energy: oil natural gas, and NGLs in post-COVID, 2021 - 2025 markets.
In an energy market filled with incalculable uncertainty, it is no surprise that most of the focus is on the short term: production shut-ins, collapsing demand, refinery unit shutdowns, ballooning storage inventories and continually weakening prices. But even in the face of such dire circumstances in the weeks just ahead, there remains a cautious optimism — relatively speaking — for the resumption of some kind of new normal on the other side of COVID. You can see that expectation in the numbers, with the WTI May 2020 contract settling on Friday at $18.27/bbl, but the May 2020 contract up to $35.52/bbl. Granted, that May 2021 price would have been catastrophic if viewed in January 2020, but now it’s a bullish 95% increase over the front month.  It is that shift in perspective that underlies the fundamentals content that we developed for our two-day Spring 2020 Virtual School of Energy, held last week in the cloud: how things were viewed BEFORE the meltdown, and how things look AFTER — over the next five years. Did you miss the conference? Not to worry. The entire 14 hours of content are available online in our encore edition. It’s almost like being there! Today’s advertorial blog reviews some of the most important findings we covered at School of Energy and summarizes our overall virtual conference curriculum.
Are we starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a head fake? Most states have imposed lockdown measures, shuttering businesses and restricting social contact, but the number of COVID cases and deaths continues to rise, albeit at a slower rate. Here in the Lone Star State, Gov. Greg Abbott is doing a limited reopening of state services and businesses starting this week. Are we ready for that? It is impossible to know whether we are taking two steps forward but will be forced to take one step back in a few weeks. But regardless of how the timing of the reopening plays out, most of us believe that the U.S. — and the rest of the world, for that matter — will be open for business at some point in the hopefully not too distant future, so that the second quarter of 2020 will turn out to be the worst of the pandemic. Let’s assume that’s the most likely scenario, if for no other reason than an extension of the lockdown for the rest of the year is a concept so dire that we would rather not contemplate the implications — not yet anyway.

It's Getting Curiouser And Curiouser -- April 20, 2020

Something tells me things have gone awry. Seriously awry.

One of the first things I'm going to check tomorrow: OPEC basket at this link

Later. Things have gone very awry. WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl.
That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand global trading.
The Movie Page

It's too late; I won't stay up to see the end of the movie. Okay, twenty more minutes -- maybe I can "last" that long.

TCM: Babyface. The 1933 version.

Based on a story by Darryl F. Zanuck.

I was unable to find the "back story." On whom did Zanuck base the story? I have my hunch.

Primary clues: banking, sex, Paris.

Clues: sex (lots of sex, pre-code-Hollywood); woman works her way to the top; moves from NYC to Paris; banking; 1930's.  In real life, husband of whom I am thinking became a maker of experimental films in the late 1940s. Incredibly coincidental. I'm sure I'm wrong, but ...


Due to nationwide / statewide lock down, all soccer activities for Olivia -- who lives and breathes soccer -- have been canceled for several weeks now. We had a slight ray of hope the other day that there might be some relaxing of the lock down that would allow some soccer practice, but as recently as a few days ago, that fell through.

Then, out of nowhere, moments ago, 12:39 a.m., Monday morning, April 20, 2020, I get a computer-generated e-mail note that practice is scheduled for Tuesday, April 21, 2020, but the input would have come from the coach, suggesting that there has been a "break" in the lock down.

I know the Texas governor has relaxed / eased some restrictions; President Trump has become more vocal about getting the country back to work; and, Tutor Time, Sophia's day care program, has said it will re-open on a limited basis starting April 27, 2020.

The tea leaves suggest -- at least in the local area -- things are starting to move. Very, very interesting. Several weeks ago, the president originally suggested the country would start to "re-open" by Easter.
 We're a week out from Easter. One wonders.

I'm getting far out in front of my headlights, but if the country starts to move / re-open prior to May 1, 2020, things could move very, very quickly.

Anticipation -- April 19, 2020

Graphic: pending.

The wells:
  • 17091, 575, Kraken, Meiers 11-19H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 192K 2/20;
  • 23144, 484, Kraken, Lee 19-20-29H, Sanish, t9/12; cum 163K 2/20;
  • 19081, 788, Kraken, Lynn 19-20-29H, Sanish, t2/13; cum 244K 2/20;
  • 23145, 714, Kraken, Luke 19-20-29H, Sanish, t10/12; cum 188K 2/20;
  • 17098, 516, Kraken, Domaskin 11-20H, Sanish, t9/08; cum 233K 2/20;
  • 23713, 319, Kraken, Diamond J 41-20H, Sanish, t2/13; cum 106K 2/20;
This is quite interesting. The graphic is very, very interesting. I'll post it when I get caught up.


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare