Of Interest To Investors Only -- April 11, 2022

Elon Musk watch: after Musk's on-again / off-again decision to join the Twitter board after taking a 9% stake I have no idea if this is really a "thing": being announced on Suncor letterhead -- Elon Musk will join Suncor's board of directors. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Updates
T -- Warner Bros Discovery

April 12, 2022:

• cost basis: < $2,400
• today:
• T: 19.56 * 100 = $1,956
• WPD: 24.66 *24 = $592
• total: $2,548

Original Post
April 11, 2022

A "down" day for the market. So let's check the most watched ticker symbol today: T. In round numbers:

• Friday, April 8, 2022: 
• T = $24.00
• 100 shares = $2,400
• Monday,
• T = $19.83
• 100 shares = $1,883
• WBD = $24.78
• 24 shares = $595
• T + WBD = $2,478
• and I paid a lot less than $24 for T as I was accumulating it over the past year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Russia's Economy Starts To Implode -- Officially -- April 11, 2022

Ukraine-Russia: a race against time.

• Russian economy will implode summer of 2022.

Russian Railways officially in default, link here.  

Russian Railways has been ruled in default on a bond after missing an interest payment last month in the latest sign that western sanctions are hammering Moscow.

The decision by the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee comes after the state-owned company failed to make a payment to investors and a 10-day grace period expired.

Contracts insuring the company’s debt against default will be triggered, and holders will now wait to see how much will be paid.

The move, which is the first time a Russian debt instrument has been officially classified as defaulted since the invasion began, could set a precedent for other companies and even the government.

Scrutiny is growing over whether Russia will default on its sovereign bonds after Moscow made two coupon payments in roubles last week. Both notes have a 30-day grace period.

If Russia defaults, it will be the first time it's happened since the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.

Russia has said they will default on huge bond payment due in April, but will sue "the West" because "the West" has frozen upwards of half their gold bullion and foreign reserves assets. 

China And Covid-19 -- April 11, 2022

Shanghai is locked down.

Shenzhen was locked down for four days before the economic pain was too great and it opened up almost immediately. This is also where Apple's Foxconn is located. 

So, now we're getting word that Beijing is considering shutting down Guangzhou due to Covid-19.

In that same region: Hong Kong. 

So, how severe was BA.2 for Hong Kong:

Global Warming To Wallop North Dakota -- Late Winter Storm To Be Named Greta -- Rumors -- April 11, 2022

Link here.

Some schools may be closed but hockey games will go on as scheduled. Stay tuned to your local news station for updates.

No Runs, No Hits, No Errors -- April 11, 2022

Russia's 1Q22 trade surplus: soars. Oil and gas prices soar. Link to Charles Kennedy.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$94.81	4/11/2022	04/11/2021	04/11/2020	04/11/2019	04/11/2018
Active Rigs	37	15	36	63	59

No new permits.

No permits renewed.  

Bakken's RimRock Oil & Gas Up For Sale -- Again? Reuters -- April 11, 2022

Link here.

Private equity firm Warburg Pincus has placed its portfolio company RimRock Oil & Gas up for sale, three people familiar with the matter said, aiming to take advantage of the upswing in commodity prices to offload the Bakken gas producer.

It is Warburg's second attempt to sell the gas producer in just over a year, the sources noted. A 2021 auction process failed to secure a buyer at the valuation which Warburg sought.

While current commodity price volatility makes it more challenging to appraise energy assets, RimRock is now expected to achieve a valuation in the high hundreds of millions of dollars, up from the target price last year of upwards of $500 million, the sources added.

Warburg has retained an investment bank for the sale of RimRock, which owns assets spread over 29,500 net acres in the Bakken shale play of North Dakota.

On a net acre valuation seeking about $17,000 / acre. 

We Need Another Study -- April 11, 2022

Governor Newsom needs to commission another study to determine why gasoline prices are so high in California. If the gasoline - diesel spread in California is similar to the rest of the states, then diesel is selling for upwards of $10 / gallon.

Link here. 

Thank goodness that the president announced the greatest SPR release in its history. Too bad he killed the Keystone XL -- not that it would have helped Caifornia. 

When it comes to oil / gasoline, California is an "island," like Hawaii. 

If you are having trouble reading the price on the pump, premium unleaded is going for $9.799. 

Nothing is so bad it can't get worse.

The Apple Page -- April 11, 2022

Two important notes today.

First: YouTube will roll-out picture-in-picture support for all users, including non-premium and premium subscribers. 

With the upgrade, users can close the YouTube app and continue watching their video in a small pop-up window.

It seems I already have that capability in my iPad where it is most important. Awesome news.

Second: after all the negative news coming out of China, this is great news. Apple and its main supplier Foxconn are now producing the iPhone 13 in India.

Incredibly good news. China is going to learn the hard way that locking down the country is not the best way to do business.

Apparently In The Bakken, PNC Does Not Mean Forever -- April 11, 2022

The wells:

• 36100, loc-->EXP-->PNC, CLR, Gordon Federal 8-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 63K 2/22;
  

• 36101, loc-->EXP-->loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 7-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; bottom hole, 4-148-97; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 112K 2/22;
  

• 36102, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 6-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 112K 2/22;
  

• 36103, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 5-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; renewed February 22, 2021; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 125K 2/22;
  

• 36104, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 4-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; renewed February 22, 2021;
  

• 36105, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 3-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  

• 36106, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 2-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; enewed February 22, 2021;  
  

• 36107, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; renewed February 22, 2021; 

Nio -- EV -- Has Suspended Production Due To Covid; Global Warming Smacks Portland, OR -- April 11, 2022

This is the problem I have with EVs: they may eventually "be the future," but compared to ICE, their margins are going to be very, very slim for a very, very long time. 

From CNBC today: Nio suspends production.

• Nio announced Sunday it would raise the prices for its three SUVs — the ES8, ES6 and EC6 — by 10,000 yuan ($1,572), effective May 10, 2022
• apparently raising prices to increase already incredibly high margins, according to at least one reader; LOL.
  
• A day earlier, on Saturday, Nio said it suspended production due to Covid-related restrictions in the last several weeks that halted production at suppliers’ factories.
• Many other electric car companies, from Tesla to Xpeng, have raised prices in the last several weeks.

EVs: link here. Scorecard. 

• graphite
• not for me
• EVs charging.  

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The Biden Surge

One big "smoke and mirrors" play. 

Previous releases were swaps; specific dates for re-placing swapped oil.

The Biden release was for cash; details very, very vague on when oil must be replaced.

Biden release: 30 million bbls / month for six months.

Next month, May, 2022, from an earlier release (a swap) oiil companies must replace 30 million bbls of previously released/swapped oil. So, for May, 2022, LOL, the swap is a wash. 

Wow, how gullible are "we"?

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Quick: What Connects These Three?

Hint: Texas loves their sports.

• Clayton Kershaw: MLB. 
• Matthew Stafford: NFL. 
• Scottie Scheffler: PGA. 

One connection: all have championship "rings": World Series, Super Bowl, the Masters.

But here's the other connection: they all attended Highland Park High School.

And, on top of that, Highland Park is Olivia's soccer team's annual nemesis. 

By the way, most US high schools have no golf teams.

A few US high schools have golf teams.

Highland Park has two golf teams. Last year they took first and third in the state. 

Highland Park High School has its own wiki page. Is this a great country or what. 

Their high school reunions must be incredible.

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Flathead Lake
Sunday Before Easter

April 11, 2022

Meanwhile, snow in Portland, Oregon:

The Portland, OR, snowstorm dumped the most snow for this date in 80 years. Global warming. Doubts remain.

Global Waming Smacks North Dakota -- April 11, 2022

Conditions now, link here:

Southwestern North Dakota to get upwards of 15 inches of snow starting tomorrow night. Williston, not so much.

Hydrogen -- April 11, 2022

Hydrogen, the "North Dakota story," link here. 

Now, this update. From Rigzone, "Biden hydrogen hub plan sparks $8 billion race."

Many of the states in the race have decided to join efforts in regional partnerships rather than go it alone. Their approaches tend to be based on available resources.

New York, for example, formed an alliance with Massachusetts, New Jersey and Connecticut last month.

Another partnership that includes Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma would use existing infrastructure to form the basis of its hub. Hydrogen is already produced in the region using natural gas. The hydrogen output is used there in some manufacturing processes, such as lowering sulfur content of fuels from refineries.

A third alliance involving Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming also seems to be taking an “all-of-the-above” approach.

In February, a coalition of businesses that includes Equinor ASA, Mitsubishi Power, Marathon Petroleum Corp. and United States Steel Corp. said they would help work on a hub that would knit together Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

North Dakota hydrogen is tracked here. 

Focus On Fracking; Bananas: The Next "Thing" -- April 10, 2022

Last night's "Focus on Fracking" edition linked here.

• natural gas hits 13-year high;
• US oil supplies at 14-year low;
• total oil + products exports at a two-year high

WTI: breaks through -- trending down -- $95 -- 6:29 a.m. April 11, 2022.

• are we in contango yet?

Knows how to pump a stock: Elon Musk won't join the Twitter board. 

How tough is it to find pizza delivery drivers? Domino's is now offering "$3-tips" for folks to pick up their own pizzas. Suggestion: order on the app before leaving work. Pick up on way home.

Are they getting ready to release the kraken? Bananas, the next "thing." Link here.

• bottom line: bananas have exactly zero genetic diversity
• one virus / fungus away from extinction
• on the other hand, how have bananas survived all these millennia?

Freight Market Drop-Off And Amazon -- April 11, 2022

Amazon: Roxy will be among US's largest industrial buildings of 2022. Link here. Details here.

• fulfillment centers: proxy for US demographic trends
• Amazon based in Seattle; comes home with new fulfillment center;
• Puget Sound; Seattle; location: Arlington
• 2.8 million-square-foot project
• five-story building (which is way different than what we see in Texas; generally sprawling onoe story facility)
• 635,000-square-foot footprint, with parking: 10 football fields
• a 212,000-square-foot mezzanine
• another 494,000 square feet on floors two through five
• parking for 1,250 cars; 314 trucks; 51 loading docks
• $355 million; Cascade Industrial Center
• Snohomish County; wiki entry.
• Seattle: in King County to the south; but location of fulfillment center within Seattle metropolitan area;
• look at this: associated with seven of the ten largest warehouse projects on track to finish this year

Concern: freight train slowdown. Transitory. Link here.

Freight market in five graphics, link here. Direct to ArgusMedia.

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 11, 2022

Not on my bingo card; most confounding story ever? With $6-gasoline in California?  RVs:

• 2021: highest RV sales ever; beat the previous yearly record by an astounding 19%;
• 2022: off to an even bigger and strong start
• RV sales rising = more road trips; more camping; higher demand
• think: Arizona; Grand Canyon; eastern Tennessee; Ozarks; NASCAR

Terrible maps, link here.

Boomers: average retirement savings. Link here.
prediction: 10-year depletion rule for inherited IRAs will be relaxed for those with moderate incomes; those with smaller IRAs; Congress has almost ten years to act

Not true: $7.49 for a package of three is very, very reasonable. Link here. 

Shows how much "we" actually believe these stories, link here:

Leonard Cohen: the Israeli war that "made" Leonard Cohen. Link to Common Sense.

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A Unicorn

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- And So Much More -- April 11, 2022

Masters: one for the ages.

• one highlight: Cameron Smith, #12
• favorite post-tournament interview: with Rory McIlroy 
• best round ever? McIlroy's fourth round, 2022; 64 strokes
  
• Scheffler:
• mother, big firm lawyer; her own successful firm moved from NJ to TX when Soctt was a child
• father: stay-at-home dad
• Texas: takes their sports seriously; very seriously
  

Covid:

• watching China confirms that the US, and perhaps much of the western world threaded the needle;
• US releasing significant amount of vaccine
• currently the US releases "no" vaccine on Sunday; rest of week, about 500,000 doses per day
• most recent week:
• Sunday: 1.7 million doses; all-time record for a Sunday? Certainly in recent memory
• Friday: 1.7 million doses
• Thursday: 1.2 million doses
• Wednesday: 1.3 million doses
• these are incredible numbers
• reminder: judge rules in favor of Biden -- federal employees must be vaccinated
• Hong Kong: we'll get to this in a stand-alone post; very interesting; another meme.
• investment thoughts, coming.
  

Diesel: will still be one of top five energy stories for 2022.

• question not be asked: why is diesel such a problem for refiners?
• France, UK, Germany: biggest buyers of Russian diesel; great graphic; Platts.
• personal observation from a trucker crossing North Dakota / Montana:
  

Electricity: US consumers are so incredibly fortunate. Why do they want to break something that is not broken? EIA. Great graphic.

India: March, 2022, fuel demand hits 3-year high; petrol sales at all-time peak. 

WTI: broke below $96. 

Oil trending down:

• bad: oil trending down.
• good: $5- and $6-gasoline not good for the US

Libya: background noise; I have little interest in Libya, but thought this interesting enough to post:

Spare capacity: OPEC+ with no real spare capacity -- Nigerian oil minister.

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Back to the Bakken

Whiting's Lacey wells in the Sanish

• several new Lacey wells coming off confidential list this week;
• most of the older neighboring wells are still off line
• the few older neighboring wells back on line show moderate halo effect

Active rigs:

$95.75	4/11/2022	04/11/2021	04/11/2020	04/11/2019	04/11/2018
Active Rigs	39	15	36	63	59

Monday, April 11, 2022: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 182 for one year

• 38514, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 4-28H, Little Knife, no production data,
  
• 37014, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 3-27H1, Long Creek, no production data,
  
• 36105, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 3-5H, Haystack Butte, nice well;
  

Sunday, April 10, 2022: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 179 for one year

• 38553, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Pankake 6-6-7-157N-99W-MBH, Dublin, no production data,
  

Saturday, April 9, 2022: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 178 for the year

• 38554, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Pankake 5-6-7-157N-99W-MBH, Dublin, no production data,
• 38515, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 5-28H1, Little Knife, no production data,
• 37712, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson A-LE-155-94-2932H-1, Alkali Creek, a nice well;
  

RBN Energy: unseen costs of the energy transition: minerals and metals, part 2. Even RBN Energy has transitioned to "energy transition."

On March 24, 2022, in the wake of the still-unfolding crisis in Ukraine, “energy and climate ministers” from 40 countries convened in Paris for an International Energy Agency summit to send a “strong message of unity” regarding energy security and to issue a consensus on accelerating “clean energy transitions worldwide.” 

But there are already strong signals that accelerating the construction of solar and wind power systems, battery storage and electric vehicles (EVs) won’t be easy and won’t be cheap. 

One of the greatest challenges ahead is this: The minerals and metals that will be needed to build it all may not be available in the massive, almost unthinkable volumes that will be required. And the materials that will be available may cost a lot more — maybe even enough to force a scale-back of energy transition goals. There was already evidence of impending shortages and higher prices well before Ukraine was invaded by Russia. And the price inflation has worsened considerably since then, in part because Russia is a major supplier of many key commodities. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the major cost challenges of pursuing the energy transition.

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Initial Production

36105, CLR, Gordon Federal, Haystack Butte, the Gordon Federal wells are tracked here.

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	21879	41004
1-2022	30933	50307
12-2021	32778	48793
11-2021	31246	42733
10-2021	353	0

37712, Hess, EN-Johnson, Alkali Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	15774	25557
1-2022	18478	27318
12-2021	15662	25746
11-2021	26089	45434
10-2021	26780	38825