Thursday, November 19, 2020

Highlight Of The Day -- Spotting A Squadron Of Mississippi Kites Soaring And Circling Above DFW -- November 19, 2020

For the archives.

I spotted them about 3:00 p.m. but by 4:00 p.m. they were gone. I bet they are back tomorrow. 

See these links.

I may or may not have seen them before but this is the first time I recognized them and identified them on my own.

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Skywatch

I'm also having a blast following Jupiter and Saturn across the night sky. For the past several days (weeks?) Jupiter and Saturn have been "behind/trailing" the moon, but tonight, Sophia and I noted that Jupiter and Saturn are now "ahead of/in front of" and slightly below the crescent moon. 

Mars is still way "behind" / "trailing" Jupiter and Saturn. Wow, Sophia is teaching me a lot. 

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Pluto TV

You Only Live Twice, Nancy Sinatra

BR Is Looking To Place Twenty Wells In One 2560-Acre Drilling Unit In Dimmick Lake -- November 19, 2020

From the NDIC December, 2020, hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit: 

28633, BR, Dimmick Lake, twenty wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 1, 12, 13, 24-151-97, McKenzie County;

  • to the best of my knowledge, there are no wells/permits yet in this 2560-acre unit;
  • there are wells sited in these sections, but the wells are spaced on 1280-acre units;
  • many of those wells are on confidential status, so I don't know for sure
  • we will know when those wells come off the confidential list
  • we will know sooner if a reader has any information
  • most likely they will be placed mid-unit, ten will run north, ten will run south

The graphics:




A reader notes that the eight wells in the graphic immediately above may be spaced at 2560-acres.

Low Water Fracks -- Enerplus -- We've Seen This before -- November 19, 2020

We've seen this before:
  • 35966, drl/A, Enerplus, Yellowstone 148-95-02B-11H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 124K 9/20; a 27K month; 33-025-03655; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 6.6 million gallons of water; 67% water by mass;
  • 22574, drl/A, Enerplus, Glacier 148-95-02A-11H TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 117K 9/20; a 27K month; 33-025-01651; fracked 3/10/20 - 3/20/20; 6.5 million gallons of water; 67% water by mass;
  • 35967, drl/A, Enerplus, Everglades 148-95-02A-11H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 105K 9/20; a 30K month; 33-025-03656; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.5 million gallons of water; 68%% water by mass
From "completion strategies, 2020":

Enerplus:

6 - 8 million gallons of water; 65% water by mass; link here; "National Park" wells in Eagle Nest oil field;

Twenty-One Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed; Enerplus Reports Three Nice "National Park" Wells -- November 19, 2020

Active rigs:

$41.62
11/19/202011/19/201911/19/201811/19/201711/19/2016
Active Rigs1555625639

No new permits.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 33621, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 6-1-12TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 35966, drl/A, Enerplus, Yellowstone 148-95-02B-11H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 124K 9/20; a 27K month; 33-025-03655; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 6.6 million gallons of water; 67% water by mass;
  • 22574, drl/A, Enerplus, Glacier 148-95-02A-11H TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 117K 9/20; a 27K month; 33-025-01651; fracked 3/10/20 - 3/20/20; 6.5 million gallons of water; 67% water by mass;
  • 35967, drl/A, Enerplus, Everglades 148-95-02A-11H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 105K 9/20; a 30K month; 33-025-03656; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.5 million gallons of water; 68%% water by mass;

Enerplus' National Parks pad is tracked here

Twenty-one permits renewed:

  • MRO (8): the following in McLean County: a Merwin USA permit; a Foote USA permit; an Avallon USA permit; the following in Dunn County: a Bertsch permit; a Vanessa permit; an Herbolt permit; a Loretta permit; and a Kenyon permit;
  • EOG (7): four Mont permits, all in Williams County; two Burke permits in Mountrail County; and a Hawkeye permit in McKenzie County;
  • Slawson (3): three Mauser Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • Lime Rock Resources (2): a State permit and a Kary permit in Dunn County
  • Rimrock Oil: a Two Shields Butte permit in Dunn County

NDICs December, 2020, Dockets Have Posted

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, December 16, 2020
Three Pages


These are cases, not permits:

  • 28622, Hess, Wheelock-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 15, 16, 21, and 22-156-98, one well; Williams County;
  • 28623, Hess, Dollar Joe-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 28, 29, 32, and 33-156-97; one well; Williams County;
  • 28624, Hess, Robinson Lake-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 11/12-154-93; seven wells, Mountrail County
  • 28625, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, i) terminate two overlapping 1920-acre units; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 35/36-154-92 and section 6-153-91; ii)establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 35/36-154-92; section 31-154-91; sections 1/2-153-92; and, section 6-153-91; two wells on that unit; Mountrail
  • 38626, Whiting, Sanish and/or Parshall-Bakken i) terminate two overlapping 1920-acre units; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 1, 2, 11, 12-153-91 and sections 6/7-153-90, two wells; Mountrail County
  • 38627, Whiting, Sanish and/or Parshall-Bakken, terminate two overlapping 1920-acre units; establish an overlapping 3840-acre spacing unit sections 13, 14, 23, and 24-153-91 and sections 18/19-153-90; two wells, Mountrail County
  • 28628, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, four wells on a 5120-acre unit, sections 1, 12, 13, 24 - 146-95 and sections 6, 7, 18, and 19-146-94, Dunn County;
  • 28629, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 3/10-146-93, Dunn County;
  • 28630, Hess, pooling,
  • 28631, Hess, pooling,
  • 28632, Hess, pooling,
  • 28633, BR, Dimmick Lake, twenty wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 1, 12, 13, 24-151-97, McKenzie County;

Thursday, December 17, 2020
Four Pages

These are cases, not permits:

  • 28634, Liberty Resources, Wheelock and/or Ray-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; 1, 2, 11, 12-156-98 and section 6/7-156-97; one well; Williams County
  • 28635, SHD, Deep Water Creek Bay, eleven wells on an existing 1920-acre unit, sections 12/13-149-91 and 7/18-149-90; Dunn, McLean counties;
  • 28636, WPX, McGregory Buttes-Bakken; amend field rules; establish two 2560-acre units, sections 10, 11, 15 and 15; and section 14, 15, 22 and 23-148-94; one well; Dunn County
  • 28637, Sinclair Oil & Gas Co. and Missouri River Royalty Corp; Robinson Lake-Bakken; determine proper costs for drilling and operation of all wells operated by Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC, located in a spacing unit, sections 27/34-154-93; Mountrail County
  • 28638, CLR, pooling,
  • 28639, CLR, pooling,
  • 28640, CLR, commingling
  • 28641, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Antelope-Sanish; flaring, Panzer 1, #21385; McKenzie;
  • 28642, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Antelope-Sanish; flaring, Panzer 2, #21386; McKenzie;
  • 28643, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Antelope-Sanish; flaring, Panzer 4, #21387; McKenzie;

Reproduction Numbers, Herd Immunity, And All That Jazz -- November 19, 2020

First, reposting this:

Chinese flu watch: at link, be sure to set filter to "yesterday" --

  • North Dakota moves up a notch, now #8 for deaths per capita
  • South Dakota also moves up, from #23 recently to #16
  • cases/per capita
    • North Dakota, #1, nearing 9% (70% or greater needed for herd immunity -- long way to go)
    • South Dakota, #2, nearing 8%
    • Iowa, #3, just over 6%
    • Texas, #25, not even at 4%; with some of the hottest spots in the US, still only #25 on this list
    • New York, #32, barely above 3%; the "city" shuts down all schools as of yesterday, November 19, 2020 -- bars, gyms, and restaurants remain open; over 300,000 students affected;

Now, go back and take a look at this post regarding production numbers:

Basic reproduction number for measles:

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. 

R0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunization coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease

As R0 increases, higher immunization coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections.

In that second link, it was stated: 

As R0 increases, higher immunization coverage is required to achieve herd immunity.

The reverse: as the R0 decreases, the lower the immunization coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. 

Not enough folks are talking about this.

I'm getting the feeling even Dr Faust has missed this (or deliberately ignoring it). Even at 90% vaccination rate he said that we still need to wear masks and distance ourselves socially forever and ever.

From wiki and various other sources, generally-agreed-upon reproduction rate numbers:

  • measles, 12 - 18
  • chickenpox: 10 - 12
  • polio: 5 - 7
  • smallpox: 3.5 - 6
  • Chinese flu: 2- 6 (but still, probably too early to say for sure)
  • seasonal flu / influenza: 1.4 - 1.6
  • tuberculosis: 0.26 in the Netherlands; 4.3 in China;
  • leprosy: below 1.0

An aside: even before the vaccine, there were studies that suggested smallpox was dying out on its own. 

So, "we're" all assuming that we need 70% penetration to effect adequate herd immunity when it comes to Chinese flu.

Really?

"We" were told that 70% immunity was adequate for the childhood diseases, like measles, chickenpox, and polio. 

And yet, the reproduction numbers for the latter may be 12 - 18, 10 - 12, and 5 -7, respectively.

Wouldn't the herd immunity numbers be a whole lot different for a disease with a reproduction number of 20 vs a reproduction number of 5?

That brings me back to North Dakota: 8% penetration vs 3% for most of the nation. North Dakota ranks first in penetration. South Dakota is second at just below 8%. Hmmm....

Case rate across the US is about 3% -- the number of Chinese flu cases per one hundred subjects runs about 3. 

Spanish flu died out on its own; researchers do not know why. Was herd immunity reached at 33%?

For Spanish flu:

The effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infectious cases produced by a typical infectious case in a given population) for the 1918 influenza virus was in the range 1.2-3.0 and 2.1-7.5 for community-based and confined settings, respectively.

Hmmm. Interesting. About the same as "seasonal flu" and almost right on the mark for Chinese flu.

Where do you target limited doses of the vaccine? Those most vulnerable and those living in high-density environments.  

Rambling. This and 69 cents will get you a cup of McDonald's coffee via the drive-through.

Off The Net For An Hour Or So -- November 18, 2020

Sophia's school is holding its annual frozen turkey drive. I'm off to the neighborhood grocer to buy a Butterball or two and drop them off at the school. 

Good luck to all.

8:17 a.m. And I'm back. Success. Tom Thumb. Four turkeys. To Sophia's house for the photo op. And then to the school. 




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A long way to go but I was one of the first to drop off turkeys: 222 turkeys is the record, set last year. We'll see if the pandemic has affected the drive.

*********************

Now, I won't feel so guilty about having a donut for breakfast. LOL

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For Those Interested

Four turkeys. 

Three different brands:

  • one Butterball
  • two Honeysuckle turkeys
  • one "organic" turkey (I "never" buy organic but I didn't want folks to think I was "cheap" -- LOL)

Butterball, 12 - 14 lb:

  • regular price: $28.06
  • member price: $17.47

Honeysuckle turkeys, 12 - 16 lb:

  • regular price: $21.74
  • member price: $9.78

Honeysuckle turkey, 16 - 20 lb: $29.56

  • Organic Organic free range young turkey, 9 - 16 lb: $20.18

I didn't capture the weight of the four turkeys, but the ON (an organic) turkey was about 10 lbs; the expensive HS turkey was close to 20 pounds. I assume other four were about fourteen pounds each.

The HS turkeys were almost sold out. Plenty of Butterball were left. 

I think I saw $1.49/lb as the best price for a turkey. [Later: the ads show a Butterball turkey being sold for $1.59/lb -- I assume this is the "member/loyalty card" price.]

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- November 18, 2020

Active rigs:

$41.62
11/19/202011/19/201911/19/201811/19/201711/19/2016
Active Rigs1555625639

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: slumping refined-product demand, economics, and fire force refinery closures.

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- November 19, 2020

Best story all day, sent by a reader, link here, data points:

  • Timber Creek Canyon, TX
  • cloned horse, could save Przewalski breed
  • cloned from his father; "genes" preserved for forty years -- yes, forty years
    • father was a resident of the San Diego Zoo for many years
  • breed nearly extinct in the early 1900s
    • about 12 horses were bred over time, creating around 2,000 Prezwalski horses now in existence
  • best line in the best story: even though epigenetics kicks in he's going to act a little different than the original .... epigenetics ... I would not have paid attention to epigenetics except for the blog ... Lamarck would say, "I told you so."

Another tech giant flees San Francisco, link here, data points:

  • Keith Raboi
    • Square, PayPal
    • "San Francisco is just so massively improperly run and managed that it's impossible to stay here."
      • rampant homelessness
      • relentless wildfires
      • crushing Covid
    • will move to Florida -- Miami, to be exact
  • other tech giants who have left
    • PayPal's Peter Thiel
    • Palantir's Alex Karp and Joe Lonsdale

BLM: I avoided this story for several days; finally read it. Glad I did. Raptors #23 -- same number as that of our granddaughter, the soccer player.

Chinese flu watch: at link, be sure to set filter to "yesterday" --

  • North Dakota moves up a notch, now #8 for deaths per capita
  • South Dakota also moves up, from #23 recently to #16
  • cases/per capita
    • North Dakota, #1, nearing 9% (70% or greater needed for her immunity -- long way to go)
    • South Dakota, #2, nearing 8%
    • Iowa, #3, just over 6%
    • Texas, #25, not even at 4%; with some of the hottest spots in the US, still only #25 on this list
    • New York, #32, barely above 3%; the "city" shuts down all schools as of yesterday, November 19, 2020 -- bars, gyms, and restaurants remain open; over 300,000 students affected

BofA banking on Zillenials:

  • I can't make this up. Story removed from source. This was the link; let's see if it shows up later.
    • It appears that BofA told ZeroHedge to remove the story based on copyright issues. [Later: the story is now back online-- November 21, 2020.]
  • the story -- not as good -- but at least "a" story of the BofA study is available over at BusinessInsight
    • I "worry" about a generation that doesn't enjoy automobiles. Seriously.  
    • actually, the whole article is somewhat ridiculous; it's a snapshot in time; do the same survey twenty years from now and see how the Z generation will be much like the current boomer generation;
    • the study is not so much about "generation" as about "age": 16-year-olds think different than 60-year-olds; when those same 16-year-olds turn 60, their answers to the same questions will change;

Vaccine watch: link here.

  • So a total of 0.386% of the 44,000 volunteers came down with Covid by means unknown, and this tiny sample is the foundation of grandiose claims of 95% effectiveness? 
  • Note the incredibly small sample size. 
  • If even 3% of the test group had contracted Covid, the sample size would be 1,320 people -- still a small number but considerably more persuasive than 1/3rd of 1% (170).

Turkey hikes rates to 15%.

Target on target: same-day channels grow 217% in 3Q20; link here

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Apple: and yet another review raving about the new Apple MacBoo Air (M1,2020). This is truly amazing.

Dead: Bobby Brown, Jr. 28.

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BLM Football

Finally a good match up tonight.

Two 6 - 3 teams face off. 

Unfortunately one of the 6 - 3 teams has been a huge disappointment. It should be 8 - 1 or even 9 - 0. The Seattle Seahawks were/are in the top four headed for the Super Bowl ... but a 6 - 3 team to the Super Bowl? 

Meanwhile, overnight, "No longer primetime: NFL's Sunday, Monday night ratings crater to new low." Google app won't allow link.

The word “struggling,” doesn’t seem to be strong enough to describe what has happened to the ratings for NBC’s Sunday Night Football and ESPN’s Monday Night Football. 
Sunday Night Football’s Patriots-Ravens game last weekend was down a whopping 31 percent over last year’s Week 10 game [to] become the season’s least-watched Sunday game
“Ratings have dropped for all 11 NFL games on NBC this season, with viewership down for all-but-one,” SMW reported. 
Meanwhile, ESPN’s Monday Night Football averaged 11.45 million viewers and was the series’ second-best Week 10 audience since 2015, it was still down 28 percent over last season
On the other hand, Fox earned 18.24 million viewers Sunday with its Buccaneers-Panthers game becoming the most-watched game since 2016 when a Week 16 game earned 18.40 million viewers on Fox on Christmas Eve. 
However, the Seahawks-Rams and Bengals-Steelers games on Fox lost twenty percent and 13 percent respectively. As to CBS, its Bills-Cardinals game was off 35 percent.

And this is when sports enthusiasts have little to watch.