Friday, April 18, 2025

Day In, Day Out, Often Twice-A-Day -- Huge Stories Coming Out Of The Trump Administration -- Now This -- The IRS -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 44837IRS.

The New York Times completely misses the most important "detail" about this story. It is huge. Link to The York Times story.

We'll come back to it later.

*******************************
The Movie Page

At the end of the day, as the saying goes, I think I prefer The Third Man to Citizen Kane. 

It doesn't mean that I consider The Third Man the better film. 

Having been in the military in Europe and having been in Vienna, and knowing a bit of German, I can connect better with TTM.

The music in TTM is awesome. 

But the key difference, and I think this may be the reason. TTM has a strong female supporting actor. I've said before on the blog that what the best movies have in common: a very strong woman in the lead role or in the supporting role. Think Casablanca, Dr Zhivago. Star Wars without Princess Leia would not have been the success it was. Top Gun and the list goes on. There are many exceptions but I think that's why I would prefer watching TTM tonight and not CK. Big Bang Theory without Penny would never have been a hit.

Link here.



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Companies Competing For New Bakken-To-Fargo Natural Gas Pipeline -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 44836NDPIPELINE.

A reader brought this to my attention.

Links:

This is how I understand it now.

Two companies are competing for an essentially identical project to move natural gas from the Bakken to the eastern border of North Dakota, both pipelines would be entirely "intrastate."

Neither project has begun moving dirt; neither company has permit approval for their projects; neither company has made a final investment decision (but I could be wrong). Both companies are in the process of getting commitments from suppliers to fill the proposed pipeline with natural gas.

MDU's WBI "Bakken Shale East"

  • one project in toto
  • announced in late 2024
  • "open season" was to have been completed January 30, 2025
  • total distance: 375 miles long
  • would move 760 million cubic feet natural gas from the Bakken to eastern North Dakota

Intensity Infrastructure pipeline (with expansion, upwards of twice the size of the WBI BSE pipeline)

  • one project, but in two phases
  • first phase: "open season" just completed
    • 136 miles: Bakken to McLean County (west-central North Dakota)
    • original plan (42-inch, 1.5 Bcf/d)
    • revised plan (36-inch, 1.1 Bcf/d expandable to 1.5 Bcf/d)
  • second phase
    • 208 miles: Mclean County to near Casselton, ND (Fargo, ND)
    • "open season" announced to begin April, 2025
  • total distance: 344 miles long

The reader's question: does an out-of-state midstream operator have any chance of beating MDU at this game? What's going on? Why does Intensity Infrastructure think it can beat out MDU? Again, this assumes I understand what's going on and I can certainly say I have no idea if I understand this correctly.

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Huge Jump In Production -- The MRO Strommen Well, Killdeer -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 44835B.

Updates

August 18, 2025: map today --

Well of interest:

  • 17753, 553, MRO, Strommen 34-8H, Killdeer, t6/09; cum 660K 2/25; note jump in production -- 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025281574156914906166090
BAKKEN1-2025311588158419149389270
BAKKEN12-202431154215352316151614981
BAKKEN11-202430156515652207159015731
BAKKEN10-2024161599163228731785172740
BAKKEN9-202427381938285992526052075
BAKKEN8-202431513651603623985597661
BAKKEN7-2024316913693164921479114104561
BAKKEN6-2024309214918712750160951590955
BAKKEN5-2024268222818414564898589137
BAKKEN4-20243051185143158271836179232
BAKKEN3-202427864186111298271336804281
BAKKEN2-2024256364639696295503545416
BAKKEN1-202431142411451327070111861107255
BAKKEN12-202331176861766941309135071338954
BAKKEN11-202328125551253743300123701229515
BAKKEN10-20231657505731333032960292617
BAKKEN9-20230000000
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-202373775453126906510
BAKKEN5-20233121492295112139363555191
BAKKEN4-20233022722240100735893205200

Original Post

On my way to looking up something else, I stumbled across this section in Killdeer oil field. Wow, this would be a great time to be driving the back roads of North Dakota, now that winter is winding down. 

I may or may not come back to these wells but for the archives, but these are Marathon wells in section 17-145-95, Killdeer oil field. Note three rigs.


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Activity In Williams County Just North Of The River -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48505B.

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Activity In The Bailey Oil Field -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48504B.

Activity in the Bailey oil field:




Wells of interest:

  • 16764, IA/473, MRO, Knudsvig 34-7H, Bailey, t12/10, cum 328K 11/24;
    16868, 294, MRO, Knudsvig 24-7H, Bailey, t13/08, cum 214K 2/25;
  • 19408, IA/473, MRO, Trinka 41-18H, Bailey, t3/11; cum 218K 9/24;
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Russia Oil Exports To China Jump -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48503RUSSIA.

Link here. 

Link here: Russia foreign exchange reserves.

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Maybe US Gasoline Prices Will Drop If We Export Less Oil To China -- LOL; Making Canada Rich -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48502RUSSIA.

Link here.

Link here.

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Off The Radar Scope -- Minnesota -- A One-Party State -- Budget Outlook Worsens In Both Near Term, Long Term -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48501TAXES.

Big winners? Illegal immigrants and agencies that provide support for illegal immigrants. Taxpayers will see 11% increase in out-of-pocket insurance payments for medical / dental care to cover increasing expenses, mostly for illegal immigrants. Needs to be fact-checked but that's the vibe I'm getting. Very, very similar to another one-party state: California.

And Iowa:

Meanwhile, North Dakota:

South Dakota:

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Tricare Update -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48500TRICARE.

Also, I've been waiting for this for years, but not sure why this can't be implemented immediately:


My goal: to see how many round-trips I can make to Portland, Oregon, in calendar year 2026, before I get tired of flying. LOL.
  • five-minute drive to our DFW airport;
  • McDonald's breakfast while waiting for flight;
  • early boarding; my assigned seat -- 33D -- best seat on the plane;
  • a smooth non-stop 3.5 hour flight;
  • PDX: McDonald's lunch;
  • light rail to destination;
  • Judah, Levi meet me halfway between light rail stop and their house
  • return: same thing, but an overnight flight so I get a full day in Portland.

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An MRO Well In Reunion Bay Opens With 95K Bbls Cumulative Oil First Full Month -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48499B.

This is being re-posted. First posted August 17, 2023. Production data has been updated.
 
Six new permits, #40129 - #40134, inclusive:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for six wells -- Ashley USA, Bonnie USA, Newman USA, Rogers USA, Linder USA, and Reinhold USA; SWSW 4-151-93; 
      • to be sited between 1237 FSL and 1425 FSL and between 1097 FWL and 1029 FWL

Based on the application for the Ashley USA well, these wells will be 1600-acre spaced wells, sections 5/6-151-93; and E/2 section 1-151-94. 

The wells:

  • 40129, drl/A, MRO, Ashley USA 43-5H, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 110K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20252813117131227603335483341714
BAKKEN1-2025311795317949829643506433680
BAKKEN12-202431234792346714340497374957911
BAKKEN11-20243029764297251638749035489020
BAKKEN10-20243026018259691585841570414427
  • 40130, drl/A, MRO, Bonnie USA 42-5TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 147K 2/25;
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202528163251631614403297162960212
BAKKEN1-20253119644196321687432687325850
BAKKEN12-20243123746237261665636569364558
BAKKEN11-20243027659276431973139611395040
BAKKEN10-20243134600345903303141206410817
BAKKEN9-202412248832482724147396013948537
  • 40131, drl/A, MRO, Newman USA 42-5H, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 212K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202528185851858910540305383042113
BAKKEN1-20253124768247481563839172390500
BAKKEN12-202431290672904214093456464550310
BAKKEN11-20243033402333862067145750456270
BAKKEN10-202429437494380624593643396414111
BAKKEN9-202423620886194836575883768811883
  • 40132, drl/A, MRO, Rogers USA 42-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t9/24; cum 224K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202528170091701711215284322832312
BAKKEN1-20253123408233921550240541404140
BAKKEN12-20243128006279821616544145440079
BAKKEN11-20243032453324371938944246441270
BAKKEN10-20243042447425482379549053489048
BAKKEN9-202430803578017656041913659110484
  •  40133, drl/A, MRO, Linder USA 41-5H, Reunion Bay, t8/24; cum 227K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202528157431574610212299082979312
BAKKEN1-20253120979209661381737034369180
BAKKEN12-202431255362552313182442614412110
BAKKEN11-20243032346323111659143204430880
BAKKEN10-20242832239323912042345267451288
BAKKEN9-20243094588945105883210437010407296
BAKKEN8-20241510149661888387238580
  • 40134, drl/A, MRO, Reinhold USA 41-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t8/24; cum 189K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20252815910158916774407084054917
BAKKEN1-2025311730117308833940865407350
BAKKEN12-20243125296252772098332968328667
BAKKEN11-20243030017299762479242188420740
BAKKEN10-20242625355254212678932555324556
BAKKEN9-202430506215116765302642996411360
BAKKEN8-2024624996243362417327292271882

********************
Seven Wells North Of These New Permits

The wells, MRO - B-2D-G-2L-O

  • 37834, loc/A, MRO, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 186K 2/25;
  • 37835, loc/A, MRO, Laverne USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 223K 2/25;
  • 37836, loc/A, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 171K 2/25;
  • 37837, loc/A, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 197K 2/25;
  • 37838, loc/A, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 158K 2/25;
  • 37839, loc/A, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24 cum 199K 2/25;
  • 37840, loc/A, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 141K 2/25; 

Early production:

  • 37835, loc/A, MRO, Laverne USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, t7/24; cum 223K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025281360013598937730969308780
BAKKEN1-20253116799167791117633284331882
BAKKEN12-20243119625196451214336172360771
BAKKEN11-20243024669246561596034896348062
BAKKEN10-20243125098250951773635489354000
BAKKEN9-202430283702843926205457704565515
BAKKEN8-202429784907844457256102421101935303
BAKKEN7-2024716168161011357419357182521034
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Random Update: Enerplus' Softshell -- A Three Forks Well -- Trending Toward One Million Bbls -- Drilled In 2014 -- Eleven Years Ago -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48498B.

Still a great well.

The pad is tracked here. 

It will still be awhile for this well to hit one million bbls; a "steady Eddy."

  • 27587, 2,188, Enerplus, Softshell 152-94-33C-28H TF, Antelope, Sanish, t11/14; cum 839K 4/21; incredibly good well with multiple bumps in production; off line 6/19; remains off line 8/19; back on line 7/10 but weird production; only reporting one day but production is obviously a full month; cum 900K 12/22; cum 916K 7/23; cum 925K 1/24; cum 945K 2/25:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH2-202528117610256823481332575
SANISH1-2025261347132045934033075247
SANISH12-20241911721209567291228377
SANISH11-20243014971488519391939145
SANISH10-202425144814844883473337711
SANISH9-20243014621450671365735518
SANISH8-202431179317826394272413432
SANISH7-20241147645823111551009114
SANISH6-202427137914137223556346319
SANISH5-202431193118791218561955096
SANISH4-2024302177219313225081495423
SANISH3-2024301921190112545851569950
SANISH2-2024281672166912824374421526
SANISH1-20243121752187134250334289454

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It's Good Friday -- Not Saturday -- Friday, April 18, 2025

Locator: 48497B.

Trump: many activities; most will get little exposure.

Sports:

  • PGA: RBC (Royal Bank of Canada), played in one of America's outdoor / beach / golf destinations
    • tournament and location said to be a vacation for the PGA spouses and their families
    • nice relaxing weeked
    • Rory, deservedly, taking the weekend off
  • NBA: two games this evening to complete the play-in; brackets will be complete late tonight

Time to catch up on some reading.  

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $64.68.

New wells:

  • Sunday, April 20, 2025: 76 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 283 for the year,
    • 40667, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 6HR,
    • 38680, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-1H,
  • Saturday, April 19, 2025: 74 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 281 for the year,
    • 41174, conf, CLR, Helen 4-8H,
  • Friday, April 18, 2025: 73 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 280 for the year,
    • 41173, conf, CLR, Kenneth 3-17H,
    • 40975, conf, CLR, Rutledge 6-11HSL,
    • 40755, conf, Rockport Energy Solutions, Chandler 14-23 1H,
    • 40742, conf, Kraken Operating, Triangle South 12-1 9H,
    • 40678, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24F XE 1HR,

RBN Energy: encore edition - U.S., Canadian energy markets remain key allies despite trade tensions. 

The U.S. and Canada have long been considered to have one of the most successful bilateral trading relationships in the world, even if those bonds are being tested like never before. Americans and Canadians are inextricably linked in a number of ways, from less-serious endeavors like sports and entertainment to more important topics like commerce and energy policy. And you can see the similarities in the hard-working people in the energy capitals of the two nations, Calgary and Houston. Of course, both cities have epic rodeo seasons. And, aside from the fact that our northern neighbors can easily handle cold weather at a level that would (and often does) simply shut down the Bayou City, we’re cut from the same kind of cloth — good-natured and business-minded.

Despite that camaraderie, trade relations between the two countries’ governments are frayed and tensions unresolved, so it’s more important than ever to understand the essential connections between the two neighbors, even if current circumstances remain difficult. The strongest energy-related links are around crude oil, the main focus for Day 1 of our upcoming conference. Canada (purple layer in Figure 1 below) supplied 3.8 MMb/d to the U.S. in 2024, or about two-thirds of total U.S. imports, with imports from OPEC countries (blue layer) and non-OPEC countries (green layer) in distant second and third place at 1 MMb/d and 740 Mb/d, respectively. Most of those Canadian imports flowed to U.S. refineries in PADD 2 (Midwest), many of which are configured specifically to process large volumes of heavy Canadian crude (see Heart of the Country).

U.S. Crude Oil Imports by Source

Figure 1. U.S. Crude Oil Imports by Source. Source: RBN

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