Rivian, Lucid, The Cybertruck -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48451EVS.

Some months ago, I said I wasn't going to follow EVs any more except when there were some particularly newsworthy stories. What can I say? The EV story is absolutely fascinating. 

The most fascinating story this past week: Rivian shuts down Amazon van production due to shortage of parts. The supply chain shortage excuse is getting a bit long in the tooth. What bothered me most was the fact there was no transparency: 

• what parts?
• are the parts unique to the Amazon van, or does it include parts found across Rivian's platforms?
• how did it happen?
• expected date to begin production?

And then this: 

Rivian has amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. The carmaker has a deal to supply the company with 100,000 vans by the end of the decade, and about 15,000 are already in service in the U.S. 

Amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. 

Why in the world would a start-up "amass a surplus of delivery vans" apparently already sold to Amazon and expected to arrive during their slow period. 

“We’re aware that Rivian encountered short-term production issues this month, and we don’t expect it to impact us,” an Amazon spokesperson said in an emailed statement.  

Rivian’s vans account for a fraction of the overall fleet used to deliver packages for Amazon, which taps gig workers who drive their own vehicles, as well as traditional couriers such as UPS.

Rivian Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough has said the carmaker expects Amazon to take fewer deliveries during the fourth quarter, consistent with the online merchant’s seasonal pattern when it focuses on the holiday sales rush. 

"... don't expect it to impact us." Why wouldn't they simply say the impact won't affect them at all.

There just seem to be too many "excuses." 

Two thoughts: either this becomes a non-story (most likely) or there's more to this story than either Rivian or Amazon are letting on.

So, what else with regard to Rivian? This link seems to be clickbait with all the ads, but it turns out to be quite a good article. One wonders to what extent AI was used to write the article. By the way, when a reporter acknowledges that AI was used in writing the article, the reporter is telling us the story was written by ChatGPT and was proofread by the writer before posting.

Apparently the match-ups between Rivian and Mercedes and others didn't work because of issues with incompatible electronic control units (ECUs). Rivian wants to keep everything in-house -- the Apple model -- whereas the hoped-for partners did not. Which, of course, on the surface doesn't make sense. That would seem to be one of the things that would make Rivian appealing.

My hunch: like Apple, the Rivian folks are very, very difficult with whom to work, unable to compromise, which fits the Apple narrative. 

From the linked article: 

For Rivian, maintaining control over its network architecture isn’t just important—it’s essential. The company’s entire strategy revolves around having a tightly integrated system where every component works in harmony. The level of control allows Rivian to offer features like seamless over-the-air updates and a unified user experience, which are key selling points for the brand. Much like how Rivian is straying from adding Apple CarPlay or Android Auto to the interior, the brand experience is paramount. 

****************************
Lucid

Benzinga has an interesting take on Lucid. Link here.

With regard to clickbait, this site is even worse, but we press on. 

 

********************************
Investing

Obviously I don't hold any positions in any of the EV companies, or any auto companies at all for that matter. 

Having said that, two observations:

Tesla is not a car company. It's an energy company specializing in batteries and regulatory credit sales. 

I may need to re-think investing in Rivian. Seriously.

Rivian and Apple: lots and lots of similarities. 

**********************************
Southlake, TX

Lots and lots of Teslas in the Southlake, Texas, neighborhoods, and Southlake is not even the swankiest suburb in the state.

Tesla sedans everywhere and now Cybertrucks. They are huge. They seem like the perfect vehicle for fighting wars in Iraq, if the Mideast would a) put in a few thousand charging units; and, b) pave over the sand so the incredibly heavy Cybertrucks could actually off-road. 

Cybertrucks are clearly bought to "show off." I guess it's called "prestige" these days. Whatever.

Exhibit A. 

Benzinga said this, not me:

Tesla -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47104EVS.

We can talk about this article tomorrow. Too late tonight; I'm heading for bed, some music, some reflection.

Breaking news: 

Samsung Electronics’ operating profit jumps 933% in first quarter, beats expectations.

Link here.

Tesla Recall -- April 19, 2024

Locator: 47041TESLA.

Link here.

WTI Hits $85; Israel Hits Damascus; Putin Calls Up 150,000 Conscripts; Poland Talks War; Netanyahu Recovering From Surgery; And, Futures Are Falling - April 2, 2024

Locator: 46892B.

Answer to reader's question at this post.

TESLA: crushed. Phil LeBeaux trying his best to spin this story. 387,000 delivered; street expected 457,000. Most pessimistic were expecting a low of 410,000. This is a disaster.

I have at least six stand-alone posts / essays in draft form that need to be posted, but, again, there is so much going on, it is unlikely I will get to them all today.

The F-35A Lightning II: it turns out there is much more to the story than what I wrote earlier about the F-35A. The general premise that I laid out is perhaps only 10% of the story. I posted my "general premise" either yesterday or the day before. Then about 2:00 a.m. this morning, while studying an old photograph of an F-15 taken at Bitburg, Germany back in the 1980s or 1990s, I had a hunch there was a lot more to the story. I had enough to post an essay / a stand-alone blog but decided to wait until later today. I'm glad I waited. The banner story over at Drudge today confirmed my thoughts / my hunch. More on that later when I have more time.

JOBS: link here. This economy is amazing.

U.S. job openings barely changed in February, staying at historically high levels in a sign that the American job market remains strong.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 8.76 million job vacancies in February, up modestly from 8.75 million in January and about what economists had forecast.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Charles Kennedy: link here -- folks may want to go back to the original Leigh Price paper. It appears the Bakken is about to go into the third inning, or as I call it, Bakken 6.0.

WTI: $85.07.

Wednesday, April 3, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 202 for the year
36082, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-11,

Tuesday, April 2, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 201 for the year
38972, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H,

RBN Energy: making the most of butane in the gasoline pool. 

Normal butane is an important gasoline blendstock, with a great combination of high octane and relatively low cost. It also has a high Reid vapor pressure, or RVP, which is a good news/bad news kind of thing because while regulators allow higher-RVP gasoline — that is, gasoline with higher levels of butane — to be sold during the colder months of the year, they forbid its sale during the warmer months, thereby forcing butane levels in gasoline to be kept to a minimum. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, air-quality regulations and seasonal shifts in butane blending may add complexity to gasoline production and marketing, but they also create opportunities to increase gasoline supply and earn substantially larger profits through much of the year.

It's Not Lying Until It's Discovered -- Januuary 7, 2024

Locator: 46481EVRANGE.

46480TESLA.

Ask the former Harvard president, lying is not a problem until it's a problem.

Now, it's Tesla. Link here.

From the linked article:

• Tesla has lowered the range estimates across several Model Y, S, and X vehicles in the US, reducing the figure on certain trims by up to six percent.
  

• Model Y: as reported by Electrek, Tesla’s online configurator now displays an estimated range of 285 miles for the Model Y’s Performance trim, down 18 miles from its previous 303-mile estimate.
  

• The Model Y Long Range is down to 310 miles from 330 while the Model X’s Plaid has dropped from 333 miles to 326

• Model S Plaid estimates have also been updated — more specifically, the configuration with 19-inch wheels which has fallen from 396 miles to 359. [In other words, from "400" to "350" or a downgrade from a 4-handle to a 3-handle.]
  

• These changes have not been made to Tesla’s UK and EU listings, and ranges across other vehicles like the Cybertruck, Model 3, and the Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive remain unaffected.

Now, it's all about the size of the wheels.

Link here. Range loss over time.

******************************************
Understanding EV Charging

Re-posting.

Locator: 45415B. 

 Updates

December 10, 2023: F-150 Lightning update.

December 10, 2023: EV chargers -- nice update.

August 27, 2023: tech writer for The WSJ buys an EV for the family. The "buying experience" here at "YouTube." Exactly why EVs will not catch on for a long, long time. 

Original Post

I know very little about cars or car engines, but when shopping for a new car, all I need to know is mpg. One number. Okay, two: city / highway.

• I never ask about range
• I never ask about the kind of pump I need to use
  

I know nothing about electricity and nothing about EVs, but when shopping for a new car, I need to know:

• type of connector
• type of charging station 
  
• the size of the tire which affects range
• range on a fully charged battery (see below)
• a very cold day
• a “normal” day
• a very hot day
• level charging station: level 1, 2, or 3
• how long does it take to fully charge the vehicle
• how do I know when it is optimally charged? What is the optimal charging range?
  
• advertised range vs actual range (this is more relevant than you will ever realize until after you’ve bought the car);

This is how I understand it (right, wrong, or indifferent) now. This is how I would explain it to Sophia, subject to editing, correcting, and adding more information as I get a better understanding and as technology, batteries, charging stations evolve over time.

The links:

• EVs: the difference between kW and kWh;
• The Verge 2022 F-150 Lightning review: link here.
• EV energy ratings. Link here. 
• EVs with longest range; depends on size of the tires: 18"; 19"; 20"; 21"
• there are 70 cars in this list, supposedly every EV available, ranked worse to best "efficiency"
• #70: the worst: the 2021 Hyundai IONIQ Electric
• #62: the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV
• #54: the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV
• #1, the best: 2022 Audi 3-tron S 21"
• #3, third best, the 2022 Rivian R1S (large pack) 21"
• among the top 12: Audi (4); Rivian (2); Porsche Taycan / Taycan (6)
• charging your EV;
• charging stations;
• level 1 vs level 2 charging stations;

This is the most important graphic. It doesn't require any understanding of anything; just keep the graphic in you mind. 

What to note in the graph:

• the left side of the graph/chart: 
• the charging stations you see in parking lots around town
• measured in kW (you don't even have to know what a kW is -- just know that's how EV charging station ports are "rated;
• in the example: one charging port is rated at 7.5 kW; the other charting port is rated at 60 kW
• some existing ports are now rated higher than 60 kW
• as time goes on, the ratings will increase in size (power)the right side of the chart:
• this is your car, your EV
• when you talk to your dealer or to you friend, you will ask about / talk about the "size of the battery" or the "battery's energy" -- or whatever the phrase is
• if you don't have much money, the EV you buy will have a battery with a lower energy rating, such as 15 kWh in this example;
• if you are rich, you will be able to afford an EV with a "bigger battery" -- such as 120 kWh in this example
• like most things in life (but not golf scores), bigger is better
• buy the "biggest" EV you can afford

Charging: in the graph above -- 

• when you pull into a charging station, the greater the rating of the charging station, in this case 7.5 vs 56, the faster you can charge your EV
• so, why doesn't everyone just plug into the the charging port / station with the higher / highest rating, 56 in this case
• you can't plug your cheap little EV into a charging station that has too much power for your little pathetic EV
• so, in the example above, if your pathetic little EV is rated at 15 kWh, it cannot plug into a charging unit with a higher rating. 
• so, in the example above, you can only plug your 15-kWh-rated pathetic little EV into the 7.5-kW-rated charging port / station

And that's all you need to know.

Except for this, in the graph above: the small print.

In the graphic above, the bigger car rated at 120kWh pulls up to the charging unit rated at 60kW. The car takes a charge for two hours. Two (2) hrs x 60 kW = 120 kWh which is what the bigger car in the graph above is rated. 

So, a "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh can be fully charged in two hours if plugged into a charger rated at 60 kW.

If that "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh pulls into a charging station rated at 7.5 kW, it will take .... 120 / 7.5  = 16 hours to fully charge.

Okay, so that's all you need to know.

But there's a lot more one can know if one is interested.

We shouldn't have to say this but an EV rated at 120 kWH can "last longer" (longer range, all things being equal) than a pathetic little EV rated at 15 kWh.

 

*******************************
Charging Stations

Level 1 vs level 2 vs level 3 charging stations

 

Level 1

• 120 volts — AC
• your garage
• absolutely worthless

Level 2

• 240 volts — AC
• can be installed in your garage
• In the Target parking lot
• at 60 kW, two hours to “achieve” 120 kWh, so four hours to fully charge a soccer mom’s SUV

Level 3

• 480 volts — DC
• not at your house, ever

************************
Connectors

 

Connector type: non-Tesla

• J1772: level 1 and level 2
• CCS1: level 3

NCAS for all Tesla models: link here.

***************************
Miscellaneous

Other facts / factoids / opinions / comments:

• hybrids are fake EVs -- they are the worst thing one can buy in the "EV family" but Ford is now transitioning to hybrids ... more on that later. Ford will sell a lot of hybrids, as well as Toyota will sell a lot of hybrids. That's good for the car companies but bad for you; really bad for the roads (but you won't care about that); and really, really, bad for the environment (again, something you won't care about. You will be happy just knowing that you are part of the EV community).
• Ford is "going all out" with hybrids. Link here.
• charging stations prone to “breaking down”; generally, outside of big cities, if the charging station you visit is “out of order,” you are really “out of luck.” If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.

Ford To Add Over 15,00 Tesla Superchargers To Its EV Network -- October 30, 2023

Locator: 45863INV.

For investors:

• three major EV manufacturers that would be considered "American": Ford, GM, and Tesla;
• two of them have announced decisions to delay EV manufacturing
• that leaves one (let's check the math: 3 - 2 = 1)
• one of the three: primary business -- batteries

From today:

Ticker F: down another 1.5% today, trading about $9.80.

General consensus: the UAW contract was not good for Ford. Details for Stellantis yet to be reported. Contract with GM still be negotiation.

EVs -- Deliveries -- Forecast -- October 2, 2023

Locator: 45625AUTOS.

Pick-up trucks: by state -- Texas does not make top ten list -- link here: 

Prediction: one hundred percent of all Americans in the upper 10% income bracket will own/lease three cars/pickup trucks, one of which will be an EV by 2035. One hundred percent of all Texans in the upper 10% income bracket will have a Ford pickup truck by 2035.

Rivian: in round numbers, Rivian will ship about 50,000 vehicles in calendar year 2023. Link here. Here are the numbers. OMG.

Tesla: deliveries miss estimates. In round numbers Tesla shipped about 435,000 vehicles in 3Q23.

*************************
Asteroid City

One of the most interesting things about Asteroid City: so little foreshadowing. And something almost no one else has commented on.

Let's google my statement that there was so little foreshadowing in Asteroid City:

When I sat down to see his latest film "Asteroid City," I was very curious how the credits would look, given that 21 names appear on the film's poster alone.

What I loved about the opening credits is that every actor is billed along with their character name. One, in particular, stood out to me. It was in the ending "and" position, but it was not given that credit. It simply said, "Jeff Goldblum as the alien."

You see those five words together and become immediately jazzed. Not only was I anxious to see one of our most idiosyncratic performers play a Wes Andersonian alien, I was surprised they let us know that information so soon into the movie.

Also, from the review:

Renowned acting teacher Konstantin Stanislavski once said, "There are no small parts, only small actors," and Wes Anderson understands that better than almost any other filmmaker working today.

On another note, irony: very little time on screen, big actor, the movie was all about Marlon Brando and yet he barely appeared onscreen, huge role, small onscreen presence. Apocalypse Now.  Director unable to "control" Brando. Wes Anderson completely controls his productions.

Tesla Delivers -- 2Q23

Locator: 45876TSLA.  

Comments

Tesla doing Tesla things. 

• deliveries were up 83% YoY to 466,140. 
• production increased 85% YoY to 479,400.
• both records. 

Tracking / Forecasts
Various (link here)

EVs: in round numbers --

• 2022:
• F: sold 61,575 EVs in 2022: became second-largest EV manufacturer in the US, behind Tesla
• F-150 Lightning price:
• $40K to $92K
  
• GM:
• sold fewer than 25,000 EVs in 2022
• 2023:
• Tesla: 1.1 million EVs; see below: 1.82 million in 2023.
• F: 500,000 EVs -- original estimate
  
• run rate
• F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
• on track to triple production y/y
• sold 3,600 through February, 2023
• list price: $52K to $97K
  
• Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
  
• GM:
• to deliver 400,000 EVs by end of 2023, link here; 
• will build a third factory to build thee Silverado EV
• currently: Factory Zero and the Orion assembly plant

Deliveries

Forecast:

• IBD: 445,000.
• CNBC note: 445,924

Actual:

• CNBC note: 446,140
• no update on forecast for full year (2023) numbers (last estimate/forecast: 1.1 million vehicles)
  

Later, from The WSJ:

Sunday’s results mean Tesla’s rate of growth can slow in the second half to 24% compared with the same period a year ago and still meet Wall Street expectations for 1.82 million deliveries this year. Some investors are hopeful that Tesla’s price cuts hit a bottom in the second quarter.

*************************
Actual

Link here.

Total deliveries Q2 2023: 466,140.

Total production Q2 2023: 479,700.

The numbers beat analysts’ expectations and indicate that deliveries rose 83% year-over-year for Tesla after Elon Musk’s auto business added manufacturing capacity, and ramped up production at its vehicle assembly plant in Austin, Texas.

Tesla groups deliveries into two categories but does not report individual model or region-specific numbers.

The second quarter of 2023 marked the fifth period in a row when Tesla reported a higher level of vehicles produced compared to deliveries.

During the second quarter of last year, Tesla reported 254,695 deliveries, and in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla reported 422,875 deliveries.

During the second quarter of 2022, Tesla produced 258,580 vehicles and last quarter it produced 440,808 vehicles.

Deliveries are a carefully watched number by Tesla shareholders and are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the company.

Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report deliveries of 445,924 for the period ending June 30, 2023.

**************************
Forecast

Locator: 45076TSLA.

Link here.

Tesla is slated to announce record deliveries for the second quarter, probably on Sunday, July 2, 2023.

Wall Street predicts Tesla deliveries growing 74% to 445,000, according to FactSet.

The big year-over-year increase reflects easy comparisons to Q2 2022, when Tesla's Shanghai plant was shut down for Covid lockdowns for several weeks. Also, the Berlin and Austin, Texas, plants were slowly ramping up output.

On Monday, Deutsche Bank raised its TSLA stock price target to 230 from 200, and maintained a buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its estimates for Q2 deliveries to 448,000 units, above analyst consensus. Deutsche Bank predicts about 168,000 vehicles sold in North America, 153,000 in China, 87,000 in Europe and 23,000 in the rest of the world.

Tesla: The Big Story Of The Year -- Did Anyone Really Predict A Universal Supercharger By Early 2023? June 20, 2023

Locator: 44989TESLA.

A lot of us got "him" wrong. I certainly did. I was worse than many. But June 3, 2023 -- that was it. The future that anyone could see.

All on his own. No government subsidies, mandates. 

TSLA: 

The past six months:

Today:

He did it his way.

Tesla Has Won! The Race To Market The "Holy Grail": A Universal EV Supercharger -- June 20, 2023

Locator: 44981ECON. 
Locator: 44972INV.
Locator: 44837MUSK.
Locator: 44837EVS.
Locator: 44837INV.  

Updates

Later, 1:31 p.m. CT: Rivian partners with Tesla. 

Original Post

On a day the market is down, TSLA continues it's "win" streak.

News today: Hyundai is next in line to join GM and F in declaring TSLA the winner of the global universal supercharger race.

Link here.

I'll add this to this post. And, of course, to this post, one of my best ever posts, along with my original posts on Netflix and Devon, and to some extent, more recently Apple and Nvidia. Whoo-hoo.

The Electric Company -- June 18, 2023

Locator: 44972INV.
Locator: 44837MUSK.
Locator: 44837EVS.
Locator: 44837INV.

The Electric Company story is tracked here. This slide continues to haunt me.

Beware the gamma squeeze. That's the talk today with regard to NVDA. 

Also, link here. 

This slide continues to haunt me.

Updates

June 18, 2023: CCS is dead. Link to the Verge here. Started with oilprice.com: 

June 18, 2023:

• breathlessly being reported, Tesla going down in flames; link here.

Original Post

Locator: 44874TSLA.

Later, 10:14 p.m. CT: link here.

Original Post

Huge story, from the viewpoint of an amateur investor:

• TSLA: one step closer to the "holy grail." Announced today. At this link:
• with the charger partnership between Ford and Tesla, we are one step closer to a universal charger. GM, right now, has a huge, huge, huge problem. The board has to be losing sleep over that Ford-Tesla-supercharging partnership.
• problem solved; one step closer to the "universal supercharger." 
• story broke earlier this afternoon.
  

 Ticker today:

Tesla Statistics -- May 29, 2023

Locator: 44786EVS.  
Locator: 44786TSLA.  

Link here.

Best-selling car in the world in 2023? The Model Y.

Whatever happened to the Model E (as in Model S, Model E, Model X, Model Y)?

Link here.

A reader got me started on this, thank you very much. My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

I have never invested in Tesla but, now, looking at the statistics, one wonders if it might be something for the portfolio when looking 30 years out.

It's P/E ratio is down to less than 60.

Small rivals will die with high interest rates.

Ford and Tesla seem to be partnering.

That supercharger deal was huge for both F and TSLA.

My hunch: the TSLA supercharger becomes the standard across the US. Maybe the world.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Tesla Vehicle Production And Deliveries -- July 2, 2022

Business wire.

AUSTIN, Texas, July 2, 2022 – In the second quarter, we produced over 258,000 vehicles and delivered over 254,000 vehicles, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns beyond our control. 

June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla’s history.

Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2022 after market close on Wednesday, July 20, 2022. 

***************************
The Movie Page

Wow, I did not know this. 

Costumes, Funny Face, 1957: Edith Head.

Wow. 

The movie is all about fashion, and the producer / director chose .... Ms Edith Head. 

The personalities associated with this movie -- simply amazing. But Ms Edith Head seems, to me, to be at the top of the list. And the list includes Audrey Hepburn.

I'm not sure if I've ever watched this movie or even parts of it, but now that I'm seeing what I'm seeing on TCM, I am blown away by the movie. The fashion really is extraordinary. 

Edith Head, born 1897, and died, 1981.

For All The Naysayers Out There -- And I Was One Of Them -- This Is Truly Stunning -- October 22, 2021

Written by someone else I might have ignored it, but it comes from Yahoo!Finance' anchor, editor-at-large, "Tesla just did something stunning -- analysts." Link here.

Tesla's first quarterly earnings call on Wednesday night without CEO Elon Musk (by his own design) was as boring as watching a Pinto head down a quarter mile track for time.

But Wall Street pros say that the lack of Musk's presence didn't really matter, the more important thing is that Tesla continues to squeeze out more profits from each vehicle it makes.

"Tesla reported particularly strong 3Q21 operating performance, delivering its highest auto gross margins since Model 3 was introduced, despite minimal S+X volume and higher supply chain costs, and impressive GAAP operating margin of 14.6% (18.4% ex-SBC), surpassing even its long-term company targets. We believe this reflects relentless efforts towards vehicle cost reductions, and operational flexibility in a challenging industry environment," said Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner in a research note to clients.

The EV maker's profits topped expectations for the third quarter, powered by record deliveries. Third-quarter deliveries were driven by the more affordable Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. Together, these models comprised over 232,000 of the overall quarterly deliveries. But, quarterly sales came in short of consensus estimates as the top line was somewhat hindered by the semiconductor shortage.

Despite the revenue shortfall, Tesla widened its operating margin to 14.6% in the third quarter, versus 11.0% in the second quarter and 9.2% in the same period last year.

Tesla bulls on the Street quickly regained the narrative on Thursday after the stock initially came under pressure on the revenue miss. The stock rose 3% in afternoon trading in large part because of the impressive margin showing for the company.

Said Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas, "Annualized 3Q EBITDA is approaching $13 billion… getting into GM and Ford territory magnitude, despite a fraction of the revenues. What’s particularly notable is Tesla’s margin performance despite significant cost inflation and a 6% reduction in ASPs [average selling prices] year-over-year." One analyst was so jazzed up by Tesla's margin performance and what it may mean for future profits, they think the stock has the potential to nearly double from current levels around $892.

 

Water -- Fracking Vs Putting Out A Tesla Plaid Fire -- July 12, 2021

20 tons of water = 128 bbls of water = 5,376 gallons of water. 

From ZeroHedge, 20 to 75 tons to put out a Tesla Plaid fire, a steady stream for ninety minutes.

ICE single vehicle fire? three tons.

A single frack:

• 41,586 bbls of water (#27313, Hess EN-Eva).
• 217,831 bbls of water (#36000, Hess AN-Mogen Trust).

*******************************
Apple

Mac shipments continue to rise: from MacRumors. 

Shipments of Macs increased by almost 10 percent in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the same time last year, as the surge in demand for computers continued.

... worldwide shipments of personal computers, including desktops, notebooks, and workstations, reached 83.6 million units in the second quarter of 2021. This is an increase of 13.2 percent from the second quarter of 2020, in spite of component shortages across the industry that constrained supply. 

... but the rate of growth is slowing ...  Apple remained the fourth-largest PC vendor, tied with Acer, surpassed only by Lenovo, HP, and Dell, of which each had over double the number of shipments compared to Apple. 

Apple is set to hold its third quarter earnings call on July 27.

******************************
Nicknames

According to sources, the Washington, DC, NFL football team has ruled out "Warriors" as a possible replacement for its previous nickname, the Redskins.

It is also noted that "Wallflowers" has not been ruled out. Nor has "Wimps." Or "Wafflers" [see first comment]. Bidin' their time until they come up with a suitable slate to consider.

Tesla Ceases Use Of Bitcoin To Purchase Automobiles -- Source -- May 12, 2021

Link to social media here. I know nothing more nor have any additional insight except what is at the link.

Rationale: environmental issues associated with crypto mining.

First observation / comment over at social medial: Elon Musk didn't know about Bitcoin energy use until after his SNL appearance?

Let's see: how much did Bitcoin plunge today? It looks like BTC-USD dropped another 7% today and DOGE-USD also dropped about 8% today.

Google Tesla no more bitcoin.

With regard to that first observation: one can ask the same question / make the same observation about how long Warren Buffett held on to his Wells Fargo stock even after the ethical issues were raised (and confirmed).

Link here.  

Andrew Ross Sorkin weighs in. 

Prior to the Tesla announcing end of Bitcoin as means of buying a Tesla:

Tesla Blows Through Analysts' Forecasts -- April 3, 2021

Re-posting as a stand-alone.

Color me impressed, what semiconductor shortage? Tesla's numbers. Earlier I suggested the number to watch was 160,000. Elon Musk blew past that number with reports that 184,800 Tesla vehicles were delivered in the first quarter. That's really, really impressive on so many levels. Analysts had projected only 168,000, which would have been a good number. He now says he wants to increase global deliveries by more than fifty percent this year. Right now, and for quite some time to come, it looks like Tesla's biggest competitors are Ford Motor Company and Volkswagen AG. From the linked WSJ article:

Deliveries of Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles in the first quarter totaled around 2,020. Tesla handed over about 182,780 Model 3 sedans and Model Y compact sport-utility vehicles combined. Tesla doesn’t disclose deliveries by region.

Tesla also said it produced 180,338 vehicles in the quarter, all of them Model 3s or Model Ys.

The company said the new Model S and Model X have been “exceptionally well received,” adding that it is in the early stages of boosting production after installing and testing new equipment.

The strong delivery numbers are poised to underpin what Wall Streets expects to be robust first-quarter earnings for Tesla, due in a few weeks. Sales are expected to top $10 billion, helping generate around $470 million in profit, according to a FactSet survey of analysts before the latest delivery figures were posted.

Tesla is aiming to open two new vehicle factories this year, one near Austin, Texas, and the other outside of Berlin. That plant will be the company’s first in Europe, the world’s largest electric-vehicle market as of last year, and is seen as key to improving Tesla’s fortunes in the region.

Tesla registrations in Western Europe slipped roughly 11% last year compared with 2019, as auto makers such as Volkswagen and Renault SA gained traction in the all-electric vehicle market.

Bitcoin Energy -- CO2 Emissions -- February 28, 2021

This is not a story about CO2 emissions -- of which I could / could not care less. I have no interest in CO2 emissions except to help put the Bakken in perspective. 

This is a story about how much energy demand will increase going forward.

So, we get this. 

Link here. 

So, we have:

• China coal plants; and,
• bitcoin mining in Iceland; and,
• Bill Gates ignoring the CO2 emissions from those sources. LOL.

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Family Heirlooms

Covid Vaccine And EVs -- February 28, 2021

If one wants any more proof that what's holding back America, one doesn't have to look any farther than federal bureaucratic regulations and the Covid-19 vaccine story. In less than a year, three US vaccines have reached the market. Under normal circumstances, two of the three may have never seen the light of day, and none of the three would have come to market in less than five years, again, under normal circumstances.

Trump will get no credit. 

This was Trump's JFK moonshot.

This was Trump's Eisenhower's June 6, 1944.

This was Trump's Groves' / Oppenheimer's Manhattan Project. 

Overnight it was announced that the FDA had authorized emergency use of J&J's single-dose Covid-19 vaccine. Link here to Barron's and the paywall.  Shares of JNJ:

• up 1.6% in after-hours trading on Friday
• up 18% from a year ago

World Trade Center, the twin towers:

• architects selected: September 20, 1962
• the Port Authority begins acquiring property: March, 1965
• construction began: March 21, 1966
• ribbon cutting ceremony: April 4, 1973

Boston's Big Dig:

• planning began: 1982
• construction began: 1991
• construction (considered) complete: 2006
• project concluded on December 31, 2007, with dissolution of the partnership

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EVs

Two really good articles on EV -- neither with good news for EV enthusiasts -- in today's WSJ:
how Europe became the world's biggest EV market, and why it might not last;
what's missing in the electric vehicle revolution: enough places to plug in;

I'm too busy to provide many excerpts. I may come back to these articles.

• Tesla: in deep doo-doo. It wins in three areas:
• marketing;
• luxury car market;
• charging stations.
• but this is where Tesla will lose: in the trenches:
• 65 new EV models launched in Europe last year;
• another 99 are slated to come to market this year in Europe
• 30-some new EV models launched in China last year;
• North America: 15 new launches last year (2020)
• 2021: 64 are planned
• luxury car market:
• Tesla
• BWM AG, Mercedes and Audi launched high-end EVs
• this year Mercedes is set to launch the EQS -- a highly automated successor to the flagship S-class

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Humbled

I am truly humbled. 

I share my thoughts on the Bakken on a blog simply because it was the easiest way for me to follow the Bakken. It was one of the best things I ever did. The blog has a lot of shortcomings, most of which won't improve over time. 

I am blown away -- and humbled -- to see the names of some of the analysts that follow my blog. Yes, there are ways to do that using social media. 

But I am truly humbled. It makes me want to get more serious about blogging about the Bakken. But wow, that would get boring. 

Eight Little Things -- January 28, 2021

Updates

February 2, 2021: on CNBC "Fast Money" earlier today -- AAPL too pricey; GOOG still under-valued --

• Tesla/TSLA's P/E: trending toward 1,700
• Apple/AAPL's P/E: dropped below 37 (way too pricey)
• Microsoft/ MSFT's P/E: 36 (just right)
• GOOG's P/E: 37.25 (undervalued)
  
• who are these clowns -- the talking heads over at "Fast Money"?
  

Original Post

Eight little things:

• Apple takes top spot in global smartphones market with record 82 million iPhone shipments in the holiday quarter, 2020;
• Apple saw largest number of iPhone upgraders ever in the holiday quarter, 2020;
• Apple saw record number of FaceTime calls on Christmas, 2020; hey, didn't Apple say they weren't tracking us?
• Apple's wearables category sets new revenue record over holiday quarter, 2020;
• Apple's services revenue hits all-time high of $15.8 billion over holiday quarter, 2020;
• Apple's Mac and iPad sales continue to soar over the holiday period, 2020;
• Apple now has over one billion active iPhones worldwide, 1.65 billion total devices;
• Apple continues to dominate table  (desktop) market: 19.2 million shipped in holiday quarter, 2020.
  

Analysts:

• Tesla/TSLA's P/E: trending toward 1,700
• Apple/AAPL's P/E: trending toward 40 (way too pricey)
• Microsoft/ MSFT's P/E: 37 just right

Tesla: wait until next year when Tesla has some actual competition. I thought it was a pretty good earnings report; not sure why all the negativity. Beat on revenue; well short on EPS estimates. It seems investors worried about EPS; CEO worried about revenue.

Twelve other things:

Calendar Girl, Neil Sedaka