Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Ovintiv, Dividends, Olympics, Mental Health Day, And All That Jazz -- July 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Ovintiv, 2Q21 earnings; link here:

  • increasing free cash flow;
  • paying off debt;
  • strat plan based on $50-oil and $2.75 natural gas
  • 50% increase in quarterly dividend payment; 56 cents / share annualized;

Investing for dividends:

  • Motley Fool: three to buy if "the market crashes"; link here; two of the three:
    • AbbVie
    • EPD
  • the best risk-reward plays in oil, link to Alex Kimani;
    • number one: ENB
    • number two: EPD
    • number three: PSXP / PSX
    • others:
      • MPLX LP
      • Rattler Midstream LP
    • other MLPs:
      • Plains All American Pipeline, LP
      • Plains GP Holdings, LP
      • Magellan Midstream Partners, LP
      • Kinder Morgan, Inc (KMI)
      • The Williams Companies (WMB)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Olympics TV ratings, headlines; not selected by me; top hits from a google search:

  • Tokyo Olympics ratings a bust for NBC, a boost for streaming -- Los Angeles Times:
  • Olympic ratings plunge and star athlete stumbles heat up NBC's make-good talks with advertisers -- Variety;
  • NBC's streaming service Peacock slammed over its Olympics coverage -- New York Post;

Can you imagine Tom Brady having a bad first quarter in a Super Bowl, taking himself out of the game, saying his mind was not in it?

Covid-19:

  • the administration seems to be in panic mode; not sure if it's real or simply a "thing"; I really have no idea; but the numbers were really, really poor the past two days;
  • Mondays and Tuesdays are always bad, but this week -- yesterday and today -- were particularly bad;
  • biggest mistake in trying to get folks to get their immunizations: telling folks who are already fully vaccinated need to go back to indoor masking and the possibility of new lockdowns are back on the table; so, the cynics and under-educated will say, "why get vaccinated." 
    • all we hear is that even the vaccinated will "get" the delta virus; so again, why get vaccinated?

************************************
Brotherly Love

Pad Fire Near Keene -- Update -- Still Burning -- July 27, 2021

Updates

August 3, 2021, 1:06 a.m.: update; it's still burning.

August 2, 2021: no updates available following a google search.

Original Post 

From a reader, thank you very much.

See these two posts for the original story:

Now the update from KXNET news:

  • nearly five days, still burning;
  • contained; no fire off the pad;
  • site is on the Little Missouri National Grassland
  • a Petro-Hunt well pad;
  • barriers posted on 103 V Avenue and 47th M Street NW

The well is said to be "north of Charlson, North Dakota."

Google maps:

******************************
Brassed Off



Related:

Four New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed; And Four CLR DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 27, 2021

Finally, we get the answer. The NDIC may have posted this some time ago; if so I missed it. 

But now we know.

From the NDIC, link here:

Data Services Notification:

As we upgrade our internal reporting & database tools which send data to the website some Oil and Gas Division data is temporarily out-of-date.
Data is accurate up to July 14, 2021. Check this alert for news on when services are whole. Questions can be emailed to oilandgasinfo@nd.gov.

Active rigs:

$71.65
7/27/202107/27/202007/27/201907/27/201807/27/2017
Active Rigs2312596260

Four new permits, #38444 - #38447, inclusive:

  • Operator: RimRock Oil & Gas (3): Eagle Operating
  • Fields: Twin Buttes (Dunn); Great Northern (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • Eagle Operating with a permit for a well in Bottineau County, SWNW 20-160-83; the well will be sited 2135' FNL and 505' FWL
    • RimRock has permits for the following wells:
      • Fundmentally 15-14H, Basically 15-14TFH, and Essentially 15-14H, all in SWSE 14-147-92; the three wells will be sited 498' FSl and 2068' FEL; 523' FSL and 2084' FEL; and, 608 FSL and 2135" FEL;

Thirteen wells in Divide County were transferred from Petro-Hunt to Resource Energy Can-AM, one file #15761, but the others all in the 21XXX to 25XXX range.

Nine permits renewed:

  • BR (6): three Morganfill permits and three Kirklandfill permits, all in McKenzie County
  • XTO: a Harley Federal permit in McKenzie County;
  • Liberty Resources: a Holmen permit in Burke County;
  • Equinor: a Lucy Hanson permit in Williams County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36801, drl/NC, CLR, Alpha 6-14HSL, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
  • 36802, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 6-11HSL, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
  • 32475, drl/NC, CLR, Alpha 7-14H1, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
  • 37502, loc/NC, CLR, Miles 14-6HSL, SENE 6-150-96, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

AAPL -- June, 2021, Quarter

BREAKING: after-hours, AAPL is down $6/share after earnings announcement. There are reasons why AAPL is down this much. This is shocking when looking at the earning report. Apple won't give guidance but they do comment on what they expect in next quarter (sounds like guidance): quarter-over-quarter, the  growth rate will drop. Component constraints will be severe in the September quarter but by the December quarter they should be "back to normal." The buzz phrase: "sequential decline in margins." AAPL is a $138 stock. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Earnings:

Earnings:

AAPL: huge beat:

  • at the close: $146.77; down $2.22; down 1.49%
  • eps: $1.30 vs $1.01
  • rev: $81.4 billion  estimates: $73.8 billion
  • comments:
    • beat on top line, bottom line, and every line in between (each product line)
    • iPhones $39.57 billion vs $34.5 billion (this is the number most watched buy folks who do not understand Apple)
    • services revenue: $17.49 billion vs $16.3 billion expected
    • after announcement; stock hardly moves; can you imagine how far this stock would have fallen had this earnings report missed expectations? wow?
    • wow; super-cycle playing out even more strongly than expected; in six to nine months, a $3 trillion company
    • one analyst: share price up another 15% before the end of the year; $150 x 1.15 = $175
    • on-going chip shortage; affected Mac ad iPad
    • iPad beat estimatges but not by much;
    • gross margins; 43.3% vs 41.9% 
    • cash on hand: $190.64
    • $2.449 trillion / $146 = 16.78 billion outstanding shares 
    • official: 16.69 billion shares
    • $3 trillion / 16.69 billion = $180/share

In a few minutes, analysis over at CNBC's "Fast Money" by analyst and panel:

  • iPhone 12: double-digit growth by both:
    • Android switchers; and,
    • current Apple iPhone users and owners
  • Gene Munster:
    • stock and the business
    • impressive beat
    • bingo word of the day: sustainability
    • each time Apple has a great quarter, investors ask how long this "greatness" will last;
    • Apple tapping into new massive markets: transportation; health and medicine:
    • next year of two: $200-stock
    • but could become much bigger
    • half their earnings, maybe more, from their services (sustainability)
    • hardware multiple: ?
    • software multiple: ?
    • estimate: $7/share earnings next year
    • a P/E of 28 - 30 puts AAPL at $200/share
  • double-digit growth in iPhone 12 growth --- folks are missing how big a deal this is;

Big Earnings Announcements After Hours -- Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Earnings:

  • AAPL: huge beat:
    • at the close: $146.77; down $2.22; down 1.49%
    • eps: $1.30 vs $1.01
    • rev: $81 billion  estimates: $73 billion
    • comments:
      • beat on top line, bottom line, and every line in between (each product line)
      • iPhones $39.57 billion vs $34 Billion
      • after announcement; stock hardly moves; can you imagine how far this stock would have fallen had this earnings report missed expectations? wow?
      • wow; super-cycle playing out even stronger than expected; in six to nine months, a $3 trillion company
      • one analyst: share price up another 15% before the end of the year; $150 x 1.15 = $175
      • on-going chip shortage; affected Mac ad iPad
      • iPad beat estimatges but not by much;
      • gross margins; 43.3% vs 41.9% 
      • cash on hand: $190.64
      • $2.449 trillion / $146 = 16.78 billion outstanding shares 
      • official: 16.69 billion shares
      • $3 trillion / 16.69 billion = $180/share
  • MSFT: beats
    • at the close: $286.54; down $2.51; down 0.987%
    • eps: $2.17 vs $1.92
    • rev:
    • comments: MSFT drops on earnings;
    • after announcement: down 3%; down $8.60;
  • VISA: huge beat:
    • at the close: $250.19; down 6 cents; down 0.02%
    • eps: $1.49 vs $1.35
    • rev: $6.13 billion vs $5.88 billion
    • comments:
    • after announcement:
  • GOOG: huge beat: actually, quite incredible;
    • at the close: $2,735.93, down $56.96; down 2.04%
    • eps: $27.26 vs $19.34
    • rev: $61.88 billion vs $56.16 billion
    • comments: well above estimates: the revenue number well above what analysts expected; analysts stunned; stock will jump tomorrow;
    • after announcement: up $69; up 2.4%; trading at $2,796
  • SBUX: beats across the board; strong report 
    • at the close: $126.03; down 3 cents; down 0.02%
    • eps: $1.01 vs 78 cents;
    • rev: $7.50 billion vs $7.29 billion
    • comments:
    • after announcement: down 2%; down $2.53;
  • Mattel: beat

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

An Enerplus Thread Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- July 27, 2021

The well:

  • 29974, 380, Enerplus, Thread 149-93-04D-03H, Mandaree, 41 stages; 11.64 million lbs proppant, t2/16; cum 480K 9/20; strong production profile continues into 2019, producing 7,500 bbls/month as recently as 12/18; cum 503K 5/21; 

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213125772634172149363052473
BAKKEN4-2021302664262932354188263389
BAKKEN3-202131278427171388584729621412
BAKKEN2-202126190419031212399519321006
BAKKEN1-20213022642229125847552828701
BAKKEN12-20203134993649176773475256523

A CLR Nashville Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- July 27, 2021

The well:

  • 31357, 1,102, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, 40 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/16; cum 517K 9/20; easily exceeding a 900,000 bbl-EUR type curve (per CLR corporate presentation, data as of 9/6/16): off line 5/20; back on line 8/20; cum 540K 5/21; never a great well; just a steady Eddie.

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213130023303428927301684639
BAKKEN4-202130274526203838206116670
BAKKEN3-2021312715264738902227178542
BAKKEN2-20212825652636349318691297209
BAKKEN1-2021312727265239242240178947
BAKKEN12-2020312977309342622498200883
BAKKEN11-20203030743081473231652620158

Weekly Covid-19 Vaccination Stats -- July 27, 2021

CDC link here.

Daily average for the past week remains steady at around 550,000 vaccinations given per day across the US, but the most recent 24-hour report was horrible, possible the worse on record since tracking began:



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday

July 26, 2021

394,949,575

600

342,212,051

393,083

86.65%

4,774,820

566,374

Sunday

July 25, 2021

394,948,975

12,160

341,818,968

778,996

86.55%



Saturday

July 24, 2021

394,936,815

1,006,860

341,039,972

676,050

86.35%



Friday

July 23, 2021

393,929,955

1,931,330

340,363,922

600,157

86.40%



Thursday

July 22, 2021

391,998,625

749,670

339,763,765

660,798

86.67%



Wednesday

July 21, 2021

391,248,955

512,980

339,102,967

611,593

86.67%



Tuesday

July 20, 2021

390,735,975

561,220

338,491,374

243,940

86.63%



Monday

July 19, 2021

390,174,755

74,150

338,247,434

507,076

86.69%

3,168,635

520,952

Sunday

July 18, 2021

390,100,605

-100

337,740,358

500,910

86.58%



Saturday

July 17, 2021

390,100,705

740,870

337,239,448

635,290

86.45%



Friday

July 16, 2021

389,359,835

621,340

336,604,158

549,205

86.45%



Thursday

July 15, 2021

388,738,495

443,110

336,054,953

567,174

86.45%



Wednesday

July 14, 2021

388,295,385

1,053,855

335,487,779

545,543

86.40%



Tuesday

July 13, 2021

387,241,530

235,410

334,942,236

341,466

86.49%



Monday

July 12, 2021

387,006,120

0

334,600,770

449,122

86.46%

3,937,380

521,064


Note the incredible logistics process: ordering / receiving / anticipating demand / etc: the seventh column. The percent of vaccination doses shipped that is actually administered. Some might argue that 14% wastage is awful high. I don't know.

Shell To Develop A "Whale" Of An Oil Field -- July 27, 2021

Best twitter tweet from yesterday, link here. Just a few months ago, Shell said it was going green, pledging to net-zero emissions by 2050. 

That was when they were losing their shirt on $50 oil; now that crude oil is trading above $70 Shell has a huge change of heart. Shell announces it will go ahead with its Gulf of Mexico "Whale" oilfield project. The link takes you to a Reuters article:

Royal Dutch Shell announced plans on Monday to develop a new oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico, its first major project to get the go-ahead since a Dutch court ordered the energy company to accelerate its carbon emissions reduction targets.

The Whale development, operated by Shell which owns 60% of the project, alongside Chevron with 40%, is expected to reach peak production of around 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Whale, which was discovered in 2017, holds a recoverable resource of 490 million barrels of oil equivalent and is scheduled to begin production in 2024.

In May, a court in The Hague ordered Shell to accelerate its energy transition plans and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030, significantly faster than its current plan. Such cuts would mean shrinking its oil and gas business. 

Sempra / Poland: from SeekingAlpha -- 

  • Poland's state-controlled PGNiG says it terminated a supply deal with Sempra Energy for 2M mt/year of liquefied natural gas from the Port Arthur LNG project in Texas, citing delays in the project's development. 
  • But the Polish firm also signed a new memorandum with the company for a potential replacement of the Port Arthur volumes from Sempra's other projects in North America. 
  •  PGNiG also agrees to buy an additional 2M mt/year of LNG from U.S. supplier Venture Global, bringing its total contracted volume with the company to 5.5M mt/year. 
  • Sempra said in May that it likely would delay its planned final investment decision on the Port Arthur LNG plant until next year. 

In a down market today, the utilities are doing well, and SRE is up 1%, a $124-stock trading at $132. With a P/E of 10, it pays 3.7%.  

China syndrome: ARKK in free-fall. Down almost 4%.

Notes From All Over -- July 27, 2021

Russia banned from Olympics. Russia wins gold (first place) in women's team gymnastics. 

China/ARKK: it looks like Cathie Wood can't dump Chinese stocks fast enough. Did she not see this coming a year ago?

Covid-19
: could this change the narrative? Some Americans now seeking additional jabs from different companies. Why not? There's a huge excess of vaccine. I assume insurance companies are watching this closely. I'm sure they aren't paying for more vaccinations that recommended by CDC or the manufacturers. 

  • Germany's Angela Merkel received Moderna's shot in June after getting AstraZeneca's in April.
  • Shephard Smith said he was disappointed to have received the JNJ vaccine; wishes he had taken a 2-shot vaccine

Economic indicators: this morning's report incredibly good. Rick Santelli reported them moments ago; hopefully I will be able to find print report this morning. Consumer Confidence Index highest since February, 2020; that was pre-Covid lockdown.

CDC: from the horse's mouth, as they say -- 7/21/21 -- lab alert -- changes to CDC-RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing -- link here. Apparently "seasonal flu" will be back this fall / winter.

After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Emergency Use Authorization of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only. 
CDC is providing this advance notice for clinical laboratories to have adequate time to select and implement one of the many FDA-authorized alternatives.

Visit the FDA website for a list of authorized COVID-19 diagnostic methods. For a summary of the performance of FDA-authorized molecular methods with an FDA reference panel. 
In preparation for this change, CDC recommends clinical laboratories and testing sites that have been using the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR assay select and begin their transition to another FDA-authorized COVID-19 test. 
CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses
Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season. Laboratories and testing sites should validate and verify their selected assay within their facility before beginning clinical testing. 
This sort of explains everything, doesn't it?

Costco: opens new stores in five states, July - August, with more to come. Sales continue to boom after lockdown. From June 9, 2021:

  • Murfreesboro, TN
  • Little Rock, AR
  • Moore, OK
  • Springfield, MO
  • Naperville, IL

From the blog, truly bizarre to see this CNBC report deemed to be too dangerous for younger viewers. LOL The video is age restricted. Here's the screenshot, I cannot make this stuff up:

Here's the link to the update of the Bakken that is age-restricted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEi0b7CFDHI.

Violence, porn, drug, language? I don't know. Maybe it's because someone was seen holding a bottle of crude oil.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 27, 2021

Covid-19: the delta variant is starting to change. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Holy mackerel: I don't know if anyone is paying attention but surfing the business pages --- amazing... 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Apple: the big story today, of course, is Apple. Will report earnings today market close. Also, Microsoft will report.

T:

Oil; is anyone paying attention? WTI might be down a bit this morning, but...

  • Louisiana Light: up 2.52%; up $1.78, trading at $72.54
  • Bonny Light: up slightly
  • OPEC Basket: up 4.43%; up $3.10; trading at $73.03
  • and now I see, WTI just went green

From oilprice:

Natural gas: remains the big story of the year. Caught many by surprise. Question: how it will affect earnings for majors?

Coal
: Indiana -- ranked third in the nation in total coal consumption in 2020, and coal fueled 53% of Indiana's electricity net generation. Link here.

Gasoline demand:

China/Iraq: more evidence that Iraq and China becoming a "thing." China will build airport, houses under oil-for-projects deal in Iraq (link to Charles Kennedy); majors pulling out of Iraq; and, US to end combat operations in Iraq by end of year. 

China/equities: from ADHD Capital LLC, "something very ominous is going on in China and it has to do with negative real rates in the US and the CCP wanting to make sure that Americans can't print money to buy Chinese assets."

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$72.15
7/27/202107/27/202007/27/201907/27/201807/27/2017
Active Rigs2312596260

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: symposium explores how natural gas fits into ERCOT reliability

As nobody in Texas will soon forget, in February of this year freezing temperatures across the southern U.S. hammered energy markets and resulted in widespread and long-lasting blackouts across the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power region. 
Life for many Texans came to a standstill for a week until power could be restored. The resulting economic damages have been estimated in the billions. 
Many people, rightfully, questioned how an energy-rich state like Texas could have been so affected. And then the blame-game started. 
Lacking a forum of qualified experts, productive discussions took a back seat to self-serving rhetoric, special-interest advocacy, and political posturing. But if real solutions were going to be found, it would take more than finger-pointing. It would take a meeting of experts whose primary focus was a resolution, rather than a constituency. Fortunately for Texans, that’s what they got two weeks ago. In today’s blog, we take you through the symposium and its outcome, particularly regarding the role of natural gas.