Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Whiting With Three New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44368B.

CMCSA spinning off MSNBC: probably as good an article as any at this point; early in the story. It will take a year for all this to play out.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.87.

Active rigs: 38.

Three new permits, #41356 - #41358, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Glass Bluff (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for three Gullikson Federal wells, SESW 31-152-103, 
      • to be sited 1097/1096 FSL and at locations, 1753 FWL, 1786 FWL, and 1885 FWL. 

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37517, 78, BR, Mazama 1D MBH, McKenzie County;
  • 39526, 446, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H, Williams County;
  • 40328, 399, Petro-Hunt, State 144-98-16A-21-3H, Billings County;
  • 40376, 1,450, Becker USA 34-32TFH, Mountrail County;

All Eyes On Nvidia -- Earnings To Be Reported After Hours -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44367NVIDIA.

Fedspeak: rate cut environment continues

Prelude

  • SNOW up about 10% immediately after hours; up over $17 / share after-hours. 
    • beats on top and bottom line; much better than expected; shares up about 13%
    • revenue: $942 million vs $897 million
    • EPS: 20 cents vs 15 cents 
    • one of the best quarters ever for SNOW
  • Palo Alto Networks down about 6%.
    • announces 2 - 1 stock split

After the close, and the earnings report:

  • slightly green immediately after hours before earnings report; starting to move up after hours? Subtle? Tea leaves?
  • the only thing that matters: "data centers."
  • here we go: early trades -- NVDA down about 5%
  • EPS: 81 cents vs 75 cents
  • revenues: $35.08 billioin  vs $33.16 billion
  • guidance "incredible"
    • data center numbers are incredible
  • all earnings and guidance can be found at twitter;


After earnings reported


Just prior to the close:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Indian Wrestling And Jiu-Jitsu -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44366WRESTLING.

I'm currently reading a history of India.

I came across a period of Indian wrestling, late 1800s/early 1900s.

So, I asked the question, how Indian wrestling compares to jiu-jitsu -- the answer:

 
Google AI (experimental) is simply amazing.

Texas Border Crossing -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44365IMMIGRATION.

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Updates

November 26, 2024: Dallas Morning News.

November 20, 2024: Homan.

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Archives

Starr County, TX: wiki.

  • county seat: Rio Grande City;
  • the county: almost entirely Hispanic / Latino: 97.7% of population identifying as such;
  • the US county with the highest proportion of Hispanics in the contiguous United States;
  • population increased from 54K to 61K, 2000 to 2010; a 13% increase;
  • border crossings accelerated during the Biden administration, 2021 - 2025;
  • Roma-Ciudad Miguel Alemán International Bridge; wiki.

  • 1200-acres along the Texas border with Mexico, Starr County.
  • one section = 640 acres = one mile by one mile square
  • therefore, 1400 acres is approximately one mile by two miles in area

More than ever, it's all about the money.

Link here.


Link here

The Eisen Hour -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44370EISENHOUR.

Breaking: again, the timing is interesting.

Now that it's someone else's problem, Biden finally shows up. If Ukraine loses, he will say it wasn't because of his policies.

NATO: Meanwhile, Trump selected former acting AG Matthew White as NATO ambassador.

Trump 2.0 is tracked here.

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Missing the Target

Target, Target, Target! Link here. Target is now advertising Thanksgiving turkeys for 79 cents a pound. See below. Was Target price gouging before announcing the new price? 


The big question
: how did analysts miss earnings and revenue estimates by so much? Even the "Fast Money" folks last night were bullish on Target.

*******************************
Inflation Watch: From October 17, 2024

Tag: turkey.

Locator: 48604CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.   

Inflation: the data is in -- the evidence is clear cut -- inflation:supply and demand -- nothing to do with government spending 

Don't take that out of context.

More later.

But it's obvious.

And the "price of eggs due to inflation due to government spending" is getting tedious. Anyone who talks about the price of eggs in this context is …. shall we say, obtuse?

Housing prices: nothing to do with government spending; everything to do with supply and demand.

Same with rent.

Auto insurance? Nothing to do with government or national deficit.

More to follow. 

Everything, everywhere happening all at once. 

In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work, Kyla Scanlon, c. 2024.

Exhibit A:

October 14, 2024: avian flu -- egg-laying hens hit harder than turkeys -- now, can we move on?

October 13, 2024: Walmart: awesome. Protein at 88 cents / pound is pretty cheap source of protein. Salmon $5 for four ounces, or $20 / lb.

This is an incredible "moment" for Walmart. They love "rolling back" prices and as fast as wholesale prices are falling, Walmart is passing those savings to retail customers as fast as they can. "Our" Walmart was filled with "rollback" tags today. But frozen turkeys is what caught my eye. At 98 cents / pound, less expensive than last Thanksgiving, and now Walmart has rolled back that price to 88 cents / pound.

Speaking of Walmart

We have a Costco membership and an Amazon Prime membership and we've never seen a need for a Sam's Club membership. I may reconsider for one year. From our local neighborhood flyer:

Nearly two years after a tornado damaged Sam’s Club, doors will be open at the wholesale club starting on October 16, 2024. 
This Sam’s Club -- just down the street from us -- will be the first in the country without any registers or cashiers, allowing customers to use their app’s scan and go feature to shop.
The Grapevine location will feature many technology features not in other stores, being the first digital-first store ... that includes a robot that can make 190 pizzas in an hour order custom-made sushi in the app and an e-commerce order area that is four times larger than any other Sam’s Club store.

$50 / year. Yeah, gonna join. At least for a year. Gotta see the robot. Plus all the other benefits. Truly amazing. $50 / year = $1 / week.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44369CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Drinking bingo game: "hyperscalers" at 8:24 a.m. CST! 

NVDA (Nvidia): reports earnings after the close. It's all about Nvidia today.

Apple: understands India better than any other company -- Cramer -- 8:31 a.m. CST, November 20, 2024.


DIS
: magic! Cramer -- 8:34 a.m. CST, November 20, 2024. New boat christened!

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

The Book Page -- India -- Just The Beginning -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44368INDIA.

Why is this important?

Next: where does Apple plan to place its factories?

For the archives. This will be tracked elsewhere. But this is the beginning of my notes on India. 

For the blog: a reader asked his followers what book they planned to read by the end of this year, 2024.

My response: India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010.

“John Keay’s India: A History earned wide acclaim as the greatest single-volume book about India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh when it was [first] published in 2000. It has now (2010) been fully revised with four new chapters that the reader up to the region’s present day.

“India: A History spans five millennia in a sweeping narrative that tells the story of the peoples of the subcontinent, from their ancient beginnings in the valley of the Indus to current events in the region.

“In charting the evolution of the rich tapestry of cultures, religions, and peoples that comprise the modern nations of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, Keay weaves together insights from a variety of scholarly fields to create a rich historical narrative. Wide-ranging and authoritative, India: A History is a compelling epic portrait of one of the world’s oldest and most richly diverse civilizations.”
I would assume that somewhere along the line Steve Jobs and Tim Cook (metonyms for the entire C-suite of the Apple corporation) were given intense briefings on the history of China and  India.

Of the two, the India briefing would be the most interesting, the most complicated and the most challenging for the presenter to put together.

The US is one country: politically, economically, culturally, socially.

China is one country: politically, economically, culturally, socially.

India is not one country
. India is a land mass with 36 Indian sub-continent countries (28 states and 8 union territories). The 28 states have their own governing body; the eight union territories are administered by the central government (think District of Columbia in the US).

In the US one can move from Boston to Los Angeles to Dallas to Spokane and “fit in” immediately. No new language; no new religion; no new nothing. At most, politically from red to purple to blue or vice versa.

I assume it is quite similar in China. I could be wrong. Probably am.

But India: 36 Indian countries. Moving from one Indian country to another Indian country means a new language, a new culture, a new religion, and  unless it’s a union territory, a new political system.

Do not take this out of context
.

Instead of one Chinese country with one party, the Communist Party with one clear-cut leader, or one American country with one president “straddling” two political parties, India has 36 countries gerrymandered based on language.

The Indian subcontinent has 18 official languages. Most Indian states / territories have a single official language. Some have two or a few more. One state has one official language and sixteen additional unofficial languages. Another state has a corresponding two and eleven; and a third state has a corresponding four official languages and eight unofficial languages.

Five states and one territory have English as an official language
. English is the only official language in one state and in one territory.

The second bullet for the brief for Tim Cook: there are only two important dates in Indian history
—


  • 1947: independence of the Indian subcontinent; and,
  • 1956: the Indian subcontinent completely reorganized into states and territories based on the language used in that locale.

A third date is, perhaps, also important: separation dates of Bangladesh and Pakistan from “India.”

So, two initial bullets:
India does not exist as a country (as Americans would define a country), 
the Indian subcontinent has 28 states and eight union territories “organized" by language. 
there are only two important dates in the Indian subcontinent for outsiders to know: 1947 and 1956

The third bullet: geographically

  • the Indian subcontinent is the size of Europe with none of the geographic diversity of Europe

  • the Indian subcontinent is boring with the same relatively dry, flat land north to south, east to west
  • think of the United States from, perhaps, Indiana to Utah, without the rivers and the lushness, or Americans would say, “fly-over country."

The fourth bullet: know the state / union territory in which you plan to do business --

  • 
the major urban center(s)
language
  • religion
  • politics
  • economic system
  • what that “country” (state or union territory) brings to the table

And that’s it.

Geographically, the map:

  • Although the size differences are entirely different, overlay a map of the US island of Manhattan over the entire Indian subcontinent.
  • mountains separate Manhattan from Canada (Himalayas — northeast; and, Kirthar Range — northwest)

  • the Hudson River is the Arabian Sea
  • the East River is the Bay of Bengal
  • there is no counterpart to Long Island 

  • Delhi / New Delhi is in the Bronx — perhaps close to where the NY Mets call home
  • Bombai (Mumbai) is on the Hudson across from New Jersey
  • Tamil Nadu is the Manhattan Battery
; Tamil Nadu is the Silicon Valley of India
  • Sri Lanka would have the Statue of Liberty
  • West Bengal (and Bangladesh)  would be Westchester on the way to Connecticut, Yale, and Rhode Island
  • Calcutta: West Bengal (the far northeast)
  • Bhopal: geographic center of subcontinent India; perhaps Harlem?
  • Pakistan: Pennsylvania

  • Afghanistan: upstate New York
  • Nepal: north of the Bronx
  • Tibet: north of Nepal

So, four mountain ranges:

  • northwest (Kashmir)
  • northeast (Himalayas)
  • western Ghats
  • eastern Ghats

Calcutta -- west Bengal:

The states / union territories of note:

  • 
Delhi / New Delhi: a union territory (need to check) squeezed in between Haryana and Uttar Pradesh
  • Calcutta: West Bengal

  • Bombay (Mumbai): Maharashtra
  • 
Madhya Pradesh: Bhopal

AI:



History:


  • history as John Keay divides the chapters of his book
“no" history until fairly recently
Pre-1750; pre-British colonization
  • 13th century AD, Islamic conquest but very biased and often unhelpful
  • The British Conquest, 1750 - 1820
  • US Civil War - War of 1812
  • Pax Britannia: 1820 - 1880
American expansionism
Awake the Nation: 1880 - 1930
American railroads
US Labor Movement
  • At the stroke of the Midnight Hour: 1930 - 1948
WWII
  • Ghandi
  • Surgical Procedures: 1948 - 1965
US post-WWII
US Civil Rights movement
India: massive reorganization
  • The Spectra of Separatism: 1962 - 1972
  • Vietnam
Bangladesh
Pakistan
  • Demockery (sic): 1972 - 1984
Bangladesh
  • Pakistan
  • Midnight’s Grandchildren: 1984 —
  • the end of the Cold War
  • immense changes in global alliances 

The Raj! Changed everything.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44367CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Drinking bingo game: "hyperscalers" at 8:24 a.m. CST!

Target: wow, wow, wow -- TGT lost $10 billion overnight -- market cap:

  • WMT: $693,380,000
  • TGT: $59,874,000

TGT (Target): wow!

Peacock: the big question is this -- what happens to Peacock? Or to put another way, CMCSA's big story is ... drum roll .... Peacock. The next big thing in Peacock streaming.

Disney: and then there's Disney. Disney theme parks! Wicked! Or Wicked

Wicked:

CNBC: will find a home.

MSNBC: not so sure. Ratings have crashed and their single best draw: Al Sharpton. LOL.

NBA: becoming nothing more than a 3-point game of HORSE.  

For the archives:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Tectonic Changes In Political Rants-- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44366IRRELEVANT.

For the archives.

Reposting:

YouTube podcasts: link here to The WSJ

Megyn Kelly: link here

Will Morning Joe, Joy Reid pivot to podcasting? LOL.

YouTube is the new go-to platform to get podcasts.

Irrelevant? Target, Morning Joe, and Joy Reid.

Mass Deportatation -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44365IMMIGRATION.

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Archives

Starr County, TX: wiki.

  • count seat: Rio Grande City;
  • the county: almost entirely Hispanic / Latino: 97.7% of population identifying as such;
  • the US county with the highest proportion of Hispanics in the contiguous United States;
  • population increased from 54K to 61K, 2000 to 2010; a 13% increase;
  • border crossings accelerated during the Biden administration, 2021 - 2025;
  • Roma-Ciudad Miguel Alemán International Bridge; wiki.

  • 1200-acres along the Texas border with Mexico, Starr County.
  • one section = 640 acres = one mile by one mile square
  • therefore, 1200 acres is approximately one mile by two miles in area

More than ever, it's all about the money.

Link here.


Link here

Target -- Will Pundits See The Big Story Here? November 20, 2024

Locator: 44364INV.

TGT (Target): wow!


Walmart (WMT): link here.

Wednesday -- November 20, 2024

Locator: 44363B.

Iran: agrees to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium; and Trump has not even been sworn in yet. 

Oil: time to sanction Malaysia.

Biden: lame duck! Wow. Trump? 24/7 on talk television.

TGT (Target): wow!

CMCSA: MSNBC, CNBC to be spun off.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.80.

Thursday, November 21, 2024: 29 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 604 for the year

  • 40584, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 4-6H,
  • 40104, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-6H,
Wednesday, November 20, 2024: 27 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 602 for the year
  • 40664, conf, CLR, Sandhill 6-24H,
  • 40195, conf, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-LN-155-93-3231H-1,

RBN Energy: players are making moves in the booming Gulf Coast gas storage market.

Rising demand for natural gas storage in the Gulf Coast region has spurred growing interest and investment. A number of midstream companies have been making moves, either by expanding their existing storage facilities in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama or entering the space with acquisitions or plans for greenfield projects. As a result, more than 150 Bcf of new gas storage space is in various stages of development. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on Gulf Coast gas storage. 

Storage has long been a critically important balancing mechanism in the Lower 48 natural gas market. After languishing for much of the Shale Era, storage values have been coming out of the doldrums the past couple of years. The key driver behind this change is that, unlike in the old days, when the storage market was driven primarily by the intrinsic value of capacity — i.e., the need to sock away gas in the lower-demand summer months for use in the peak winter months — the value of storage is being driven mostly by extrinsic economics — i.e., how flexible and responsive capacity allows market participants to manage supply and demand during short-term market swings.