Wednesday, April 10, 2019

The False Precision Is Truly Non-Credible -- April 10, 2019

Link here.

This is "parts per million."

Fourhundredelevenpointninesevenpartspermillion. LOL.

Can you imagine the  headline had it been fourhundredelevenpintninesix?!?!

And how do we know whether it was 411.969 or 411.971? Why won't Mauna Lao Observatory release the unredacted data with all the supporting data? And why does it take so long for the data to be released?

Last month it was 411.75.

Two New Permits; Two Permits Renewed -- And That Was All -- April 10, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6259523193

Two new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting
  • Field: Glass Bluff (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a 2-well Monson pad in section 32-152-103 in Glass Bluff oil field;
Two permits renewed:
  • Lime Rock Resources: two State Dvorak permits, both in Dunn County
And that was it.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019, T+98, Part 1

Biggest Apple story not reported yesterday? Except over on MacRumors and the WSJ? From The WSJ -- Apple music has overtaken Spotify in US paid subscribers.
Apple Music has surpassed Spotify's paid subscriber count in the United States, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke with The Wall Street Journal. The shift reportedly happened earlier in 2019; Apple had more than 28 million U.S. subscribers in February compared to Spotify's 26 million paid U.S. subscribers.

This was reported last summer an industry source, but now months later The WSJis corroborating the report.According to the paper, Apple Music has been adding subscribers "more rapidly" than Spotify, with a monthly growth rate of 2.6 to 3 percent, compared to 1.5 to 2 percent for Spotify. 
That seems pretty straightforward. Now, let's look at the comments over at MacRumors:
  • apparently Verizon customers get Apple Music free
  • so, if Spotify partnered with AT&T...
  • reminds me of when Internet Explorer was the most widely used browser (because it came installed on every PC) -- I did not know you had to pay for Internet Explorer every month
Texas Taxes

A most regressive tax plan introduced.

Folks are complaining about high property taxes here in Texas, as property values go up and up and up.

Folks are looking for property tax relief.

Suggestion: cut property taxes but increase sales tax.

Sales tax: nothing more regressive than sales tax. 

NOG's 25th Annual IPAA OGIS Presentation, April 9, 2019

Link here.

Note: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. Some numbers are rounded. Opinions/comments are interspersed with data points. This is posted b for my benefit to better understand the Bakken. If this information is important for you, go to the source.

Data points:
  • net acres: 157,083; 93% held by production; 40+ operator partners
    • the majority of the operator partners are the best in the business
    • majority of acres in the Bakken "big 4" counties
    • production: 36,258 boepd
    • proved reserves: 135.5 million boe
    • 3,737 days of production at current rate = 10 years
  • cash flow, 4Q18: $500 million; from operations: $430 million
  • look at this: 22 employees
    • that's it: 22 employees
  • non-consent: if NOG does not participate in any given well, NOG does not lose its rights to participate in future wells in same zones in same drilling spacing unit (a great example of an open-book test)
  • experience: over 5,000 wells so far; 30%+ of all Bakken and Three Forks wells drilled so far -- 
    • I knew it had to be high; I did not know it was that high
  • the Bakken:
    • NOG says 7.4 billion bbls of recoverable oil
    • 15,000 producing wells so far
  • the Red Queen? Nope: "Williston rig activity may be plateauing, but production continues to grow as well efficiency and recovery is enhanced"
  • current wells with EURs that now exceed 1 million boe
    • 2017: 12 month production up 25% over 2016
    • 2018: 12 month production up 6% over 2017
  • NOG will continue with accretive acquisitions
  • Debt (numbers rounded):
    • 12/13/18: $830 million
    • 6/40/18: $635 million
    • Notes: 8.5% due 2023 -- $700 million
    • Revolving credit facility -- $140 million

US Crude Oil Inventories Increase By A Whopping 7.0 Million Bbls -- April 10, 2019


Later, 9:44 p.m., April 10, 2019: from twitter --

Later, 12:00 noon, April 10, 2019: after the release of EIA petroleum data this morning, WTI was essentially flat, maybe up 24 cents. Since then, WTI continues to rise, now up almost a percent for the day. I guess no one cares that US crude oil inventories have increased by 17 million bbls over the past 3 weeks, or 14.2 million bbls over the past two weeks.

The market: a great market today, the kind I like to see. The Dow is down 30 points, but my watchlist is practically all green.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Original Post

EIA's weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil inventories up a whopping 7.0 million bbls
  • LOL -- at 456.5 million bbls, the US crude oil inventories are at the five year average -- going unreported is that that the 5-year average now includes the Saudi $1 trillion mistake / Saudi surge of 2014 - 2016
  • at 456.5 million bbls, largest inventory in 20 weeks
  • but look at this: total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 7.7 million bbls just as the US starts to enter its annual driving season; it can all be traced back to the Obama policies; not enough heavy oil to counter al that light oil, and, there are some refineries "down" due to "unexpected" maintenance; gasoline will get expensive;
  • refineries operating at 87.5% capacity; at the far low end of the continuum
  • crude oil imports are 15.5% less than the same four-week period last year -- this is not trivial; if that is mostly heavy oil, it's a problem for refiners
  • everything else is white noise
WTI after the report: up 24 cents, at $64.22. Not sure how this is being calculated; at the start of the day, WTI was $64.43 -- both from the same source (oilprice)

Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 10
January 31, 2019
Week 11
February 6, 2019
Week 12
February 13, 2019
Week 13
February 21, 2019
Week 14
February 27, 2019
Week 15
March 6, 2019
Week 16
March 13, 2019
Week 17
March 20, 2019
Week 18
March 27, 2019
Week 19
April 3, 2019
Week 20
April 10, 2019

Note: in the graphic above, for the past 20 weeks, the current inventory of 456.5 million bbls is the largest inventory reported. 

Minnesota Schools And Churches Closed Due To Global Warming -- April 10, 2019

That historic "springtime" snowstorm wallops the midwest.
Snow is coming down fast and furious in the Rockies and north-central U.S. and is expected to accumulate up to 30 inches in some pockets. Meanwhile, thunder and lightning are accompanying the intense snowfall in some areas.

The storm blasted parts of the West with heavy rain, heavy mountain snow, power-cutting winds and blowing dust on Tuesday with more on the way into Wednesday night.
The early stages of the storm knocked out power to 50,000 in the Los Angeles area and kicked up dramatic dust storms in Nevada.The already massive storm will continue to gain strength across the nation's heartland into Thursday, bringing everything from damaging winds to blizzard conditions, flooding rain and severe weather.

As the storm stretches across the country, a total of 200 million people in the United States will feel the impacts of this intense weather system that may be second only in strength to the "bomb cyclone" that hit much of the same area about a month earlier.
One wonders if the NOAA thermometers will "catch" this storm, and/or if NOAA will seasonally adjust the readings.

That "historic winter storm" starting to impact the Great Plains. 

From KEYC:
  • Albion Lutheran Church-St. James: No Lenten services or supper 
  • Augustana/East Sveadahl Ministries: Closed Today; No activities or worship today
  • Butterfield-Odin: Closing at 9:30 AM 
  • Comfrey: Closing at 9:00 AM 
  • GFW Schools [WEB]: Closing at 10:45 AM 
  • Marshall: Closing at 10:00 AM; No PM Preschool 
  • Milroy: Closed Today 
  • MN Valley Lutheran: Closing at 9:45 AM 
  • Mountain Lake [WEB]: Closing at 9:00 AM; Kindergarten Round-Up postponed until a later date. 
  • Mt. Lake Christian: Closing at 8:50 AM 
  • New Hope Lutheran-Comfrey: No evening activities; No Soup Supper or evening church services 
  • Redwood Area [WEB]: Closing at 9:55 AM 
  • SJL-Northrop: Closing at 11:00 AM 
  • Sleepy Eye Public: Closing at 9:30 AM; No evening activities Springfield: Closing at 9:30 AM 
  • St. James [WEB]: Closing at 10:30 AM 
  • St. John's Lutheran School-Sleepy Eye: Closing at 9:30 AM 
  • Windom: Closing at 9:00 AM
Global Warming: The Science Is Settled
But ... Human Evolution ... The Answer Is Still Out There

From The WSJ:
  • a new species 
  • "a good case that this is something new that we have not seen before"
  • for the first time, the Philippines is part of the evolutionary debate
  • new species: Homo luzonensis

This Hess Sivertson Well Coming Back On Line? -- April 10, 2019

From an earlier post:
January 5, 2019: #30084, off line as of 4/18; a huge well; one day of production, 2/19;
The well:
  • 30084, 1,348, Hess, BB-Sivertson-LN-151-95-1719H-1, Blue Buttes, t4/15; cum 221K 2/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Sister wells with little change past few months (#30082 and #30083).

It Appears Slawson Has Completed/Is Completing The Jore Federal Wells In Clarks Creek -- April 10, 2019

Some life in this well? From an earlier post --
January 6, 2019: #28747; a mediocre Slawson Clarks Creek well off line much of this year; nice jump in 2/19; will watch for a few more months.
The well:
  • 28747, 2,592, Slawson, Jore Federal 2-12H, Clarsk Creek, t9/14; cum 190K 2/19; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Jore Federal wells are tracked here (that post has not been updated in quite some time -- needs to be updated).

It looks like this Jore Federal pad is now being fracked/completed. For example:
  • 31191, SI/NC, Slawson, Jore Federal 13-12TF2H, Clarks Creek, t--; cum --: spud date, May 24, 2018; cease drilling, June 18, 2018; Three Forks Second Bench; vertical section drilled in 84 hours; one trip was made due to motor failure; the curve was drilled in 20 drilling hours; second bench gas units as high as 1,599 units; the well bore was 100% within the target zone; top of Three Forks hit at 10,665' TVD and the top of the Three Forks Second Bench hit at 10,703' TVD; TVD was 10,756.18 feet;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Three Of The Five XTO Little Pete Federal Wells Back On Line -- Great Wells -- April 10, 2019

Three of the five XTO Little Pete Federal wells are now back on line. See this post where these wells are tracked.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

32220: remains off line.
32221: remains off line.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019, T+98

List of accomplishments at day 98 for the 115th US Congress:

Moving on.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The market: early morning trading --
  • WTI: said to be up 45 cents but seems to be where it was yesterday at $64.43
  • DOW:  down 20 points
  • XLNX: up almost 2%; up over $2/share; now trading at $131/share
  • UNP: still struggling; down another half a percent;
  • EOG: recovers a bit; trading at $99
  • NOG: nice; up a percent
  • JAG: nice; up half a percent
  • CVX: same here; up half a percent
  • BA: wow; when will the bleeding stop; down another $5.00; trading around $364
  • TSLA: infusion of cash from FiatChrysler as predicted some years ago; up $2.42/share
Mid-morning trading, except for XLNX, nothing remarkable
  • XLNX: up almost $4/shr

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- April 10, 2019

Historic storm: from Accuweather -- it could be quite a storm. In the Great Plains, it looks like South Dakota will get hit the hardest.
Depending on the exact track of the storm, snow could extend as far south as Kansas.
North Dakota, less the southernmost counties, may miss the brunt of this storm.
Inventory: crude oil inventories still significantly above normal level -- Saudi. With huge bond offering Saudi has wiggle room to cut production. Note: all things being equal, Saudi will increase production within a few months as domestic demand increases.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, April 10, 2019: 31 wells for the month; 31 wells for the quarter
  • 33684, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 3-19-18-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 33683, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 3-30-31-157-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6259523193

RBN Energy: pipe constraints, crude economics take gas markets on a wild ride.
The winter 2018-19 natural gas market was one of the most chaotic in recent memory, with the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract last fall rocketing up to nearly $5/MMBtu in a matter of weeks, only to collapse in late 2018/early 2019 to an average $2.60 in January. The physical gas market also swung to extremes in recent months, setting both the highest ($200/MMBtu at the Sumas, WA, hub) and lowest (negative $9.00/MMBtu at the Waha hub) trades ever recorded in the U.S. These anomalies occurred amid steep supply growth from the Marcellus/Utica and Permian producing regions and rapidly advancing demand, particularly from burgeoning LNG exports along the Gulf Coast, while infrastructure scrambled to keep pace to bridge the two. And there’s more of that volatility ahead. Close to 5 Bcf/d more LNG export capacity is being added this year alone, and Lower-48 gas production is poised to continue growing. Today, we lay out our view of the recent volatility and the biggest factors shaping the gas market over the next five years.
This past winter was one of records and extremes. Gas production continued to set new highs, topping 89 Bcf/d for the first time at the end of March and averaging just under 88 Bcf/d for the November-March period. Marcellus/Utica production growth slowed a bit in recent weeks, in part due to weather-related freeze-offs and some pipeline outages. But the increases before that were astronomical, with average volumes this winter (November through March) up by a whopping 9.5 Bcf/d from a year earlier — and, as we’ll get to later, we haven’t seen the last of it. Domestic demand also set records, led by the power sector. But, by far, the biggest movement on the demand side was in exports, which peaked at nearly 10.5 Bcf/d in mid-March, up 3.2 Bcf/d (or 40%) year-on-year, with the bulk of that increase coming from LNG exports, primarily from the Gulf Coast. At the 10.5-Bcf/d level, that’s about 12% of total Lower-48 gas production moving to export markets now
What Condition My Condition Is In