Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- April 10, 2019

Historic storm: from Accuweather -- it could be quite a storm. In the Great Plains, it looks like South Dakota will get hit the hardest.

Depending on the exact track of the storm, snow could extend as far south as Kansas.
North Dakota, less the southernmost counties, may miss the brunt of this storm.

Inventory: crude oil inventories still significantly above normal level -- Saudi. With huge bond offering Saudi has wiggle room to cut production. Note: all things being equal, Saudi will increase production within a few months as domestic demand increases.

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, April 10, 2019: 31 wells for the month; 31 wells for the quarter

• 33684, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 3-19-18-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 33683, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 3-30-31-157-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Active rigs:

$64.43	4/10/2019	04/10/2018	04/10/2017	04/10/2016	04/10/2015
Active Rigs	62	59	52	31	93

RBN Energy: pipe constraints, crude economics take gas markets on a wild ride.

The winter 2018-19 natural gas market was one of the most chaotic in recent memory, with the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract last fall rocketing up to nearly $5/MMBtu in a matter of weeks, only to collapse in late 2018/early 2019 to an average $2.60 in January. The physical gas market also swung to extremes in recent months, setting both the highest ($200/MMBtu at the Sumas, WA, hub) and lowest (negative $9.00/MMBtu at the Waha hub) trades ever recorded in the U.S. These anomalies occurred amid steep supply growth from the Marcellus/Utica and Permian producing regions and rapidly advancing demand, particularly from burgeoning LNG exports along the Gulf Coast, while infrastructure scrambled to keep pace to bridge the two. And there’s more of that volatility ahead. Close to 5 Bcf/d more LNG export capacity is being added this year alone, and Lower-48 gas production is poised to continue growing. Today, we lay out our view of the recent volatility and the biggest factors shaping the gas market over the next five years.

This past winter was one of records and extremes. Gas production continued to set new highs, topping 89 Bcf/d for the first time at the end of March and averaging just under 88 Bcf/d for the November-March period. Marcellus/Utica production growth slowed a bit in recent weeks, in part due to weather-related freeze-offs and some pipeline outages. But the increases before that were astronomical, with average volumes this winter (November through March) up by a whopping 9.5 Bcf/d from a year earlier — and, as we’ll get to later, we haven’t seen the last of it. Domestic demand also set records, led by the power sector. But, by far, the biggest movement on the demand side was in exports, which peaked at nearly 10.5 Bcf/d in mid-March, up 3.2 Bcf/d (or 40%) year-on-year, with the bulk of that increase coming from LNG exports, primarily from the Gulf Coast. At the 10.5-Bcf/d level, that’s about 12% of total Lower-48 gas production moving to export markets now

****************************

What Condition My Condition Is In