Honda -- Will Require A Stand-Alone Post -- Very, Very Strange -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48622HONDA.

Mixing apples with oranges. April, 2025, results with annual results. 

AI:

Link here.

From the linked article: 

Japanese auto giant Honda missed fiscal fourth-quarter earnings estimates as operating profit plunged 76%, with the company bracing for the full impact of U.S. tariffs. 

Here are Honda’s results compared with mean estimates from LSEG: 

• Revenue: 5.36 trillion yen ($47.26 billion) vs. 5.36 trillion yen 
• Operating profit: 73.5 billion yen vs. 275.52 billion yen 

Honda’s fourth quarter ends March 31. 

For its financial year ended in March, revenue came in at 21.69 trillion yen, compared with the average estimate of 21.63 trillion yen from LSEG and marking a 6.2% rise year on year. 

Operating profit fell 12.2% to 1.21 trillion yen, against the average LSEG estimate of 1.41 trillion yen. 

Net profit for its full year declined 24.5% to 835.84 billion. 

While its motorcycle business achieved record high sales volume and operating profit, Honda’s automobile business saw a drop in sales, mainly in China and Southeast Asia. 

Hybrid electric vehicle sales in North America, however, expanded due to higher EV incentives in the region. 

Honda’s results come amid trade tensions with the U.S., which has slapped a 25% tariff on foreign automobile imports. 

In March, Honda had reportedly decided to produce its next-generation Civic hybrid in the U.S. state of Indiana, instead of Mexico, to avoid potential tariffs on one of its top-selling car models, Reuters reported. 

According to U.S. car marketplace CarPro, Asian automakers made up six of the top eight automakers in the U.S. by sales volume in 2024, with Honda in fourth place. 

In its earnings release, Honda had downgraded almost every financial metric for its current fiscal year ending in March 2026, compared with its latest full-year results. Its full-year operating profit is projected to fall almost 59% to 500 billion yen. 

Honda’s projected net profit saw an even deeper cut at 70.1% lower, plunging to 250 billion yen, while revenue is expected to slip 6.4% to 20.3 trillion yen. 

Japan’s second-biggest automaker explained that the impact of tariff policies worldwide would be very significant on its business, with the frequent revisions making it difficult to formulate an outlook.

California Bullet Train -- Update -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48621TRAIN.

Updates

May 22, 2025: nothing new here. Updated numbers. That's about it. Link here. 

I believe the last estimate just a few months ago, was another $7 billion would be needed by next summer; now it's estimated that another $10.2 billion may be needed by next summer in order to continue funding the project, and there might be a $400 million cost reduction. New estimate is on the higher range and is largely due to inflation. 

Reminder: California's current budget is as much as $12 billion underwater (a deficit of $12 billion) so this new number for the bullet train, $10.2 billion, is unachievable under the present circumstances, unless the Federal government steps up to the plate. Next proposal: a $10-billion bond proposal for California taxpayers.

If the $10.2 billion goes forward, that will make the project more expensive than the entire project that was proposed decades ago. Th updated cost estimate for the Merced to Bakersfield corridor ranges form $34.9 billion to $38.5 billion. The initial proposal was $45 billion for the entire project form San Francisco to Los Angeles. 

In round numbers that $38.5 billion is $40 billion and no one would be surprised if that was eventually raised to $50 billion.

Original Post 

The important link.

From the linked article:

Of all the government-spending boondoggles in history, California’s bullet train may be the most costly ever. That’s not news. In 2015, it topped the Houston Chronicle‘s John Boyd’s list of America’s 20 biggest wastes of money ever at $68 billion. That was just a little over double the $33 billion California’s politicians promised it would cost when they asked voters to approve it in 2008.

Ten Years Later

The Associated Press‘ Sophie Austin reports “the project’s price tag now exceeds $100 billion, more than triple the initial estimate.” In her article, she describes how far along the project is and the current plans the CEO of the California High-Speed Rail Authority, Ian Choudri, has for moving it forward.

California’s construction is far from completion. Of the 119 miles (192 kilometers) of construction underway in the Central Valley, only a 22-mile (35-kilometer) stretch is ready for the track-laying phase, which isn’t set to start until next year.

Finishing the line in the Valley is just the first step. Next, the train has to extend north toward the San Francisco Bay Area and south toward Los Angeles. Choudri’s goal within the next 20 years is to build to Gilroy, about 70 miles (113 kilometers) southeast of San Francisco. Under current public transit, it would then take at least one more train transfer to get into the city.

Southward, he envisions building to Palmdale, 37 miles (60 kilometers) northeast of Los Angeles. From there, it takes more than one hour to drive or two hours on an existing train line to reach Los Angeles.

In 2020, the population of Palmdale was 169,000, and the population of Gilroy was 58,000, who are no doubt excited they’ll be able to travel between the two cities on California’s high-speed rail as early as 2045. 

SpaceX Sets New Record -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48622MUSK.

Link here. Not sure why this popped up on my news feed today, but it did.

Has SpaceX become more important than NASA? Ask ChatGPT for a surprising answer. 

Bottom line: Space X has become extremely influential in the aerospace industry and has surpassed NASA in some areas but not in others. ChatGPT then goes on to give examples. 

From the link above:

Number Of Bakken Oil And Gas Permits Renewed In The Past Few Days -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48621B.

Bakken permits renewed over the past few days:

• past week
• Monday, May 5, 2025: 18
• Tuesday, May 6, 2025: 14
• Wednesday, May 7, 2025: 14
• Thursday, May 8, 2025: 21
• Friday, May 9, 2025: 16
• Monday, May 12, 2025: 14 
• To put this in perspective:
• generally one can expect around two or three permit renewals in any given day;
• often there are days when there are no permit renewals;
• anything above five permits renewals in any given day gets my attention.

The Fog Is Beginning To Clear -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48620MARKET.

Saudi: another $600 billion investment in the US -- this time from Saudi Arabia. 

Pay attention to President Trump's remarks in Saudi Arabia.

Tariffs, link here: 

The fog is beginning to clear.

Casually interested in:

• AAPL: holding gains from yesterday; flat today but still green.
• NVDA: up an astounding 6% so far today
• SCCO: up 1.5% today
• F: trading above $10 today

Bakken permits renewed over the past few days:

• past week
• Monday, May 5, 2025: 18
• Tuesday, May 6, 2025: 14
• Wednesday, May 7, 2025: 14
• Thursday, May 8, 2025: 21
• Friday, May 9, 2025: 16
• Monday, May 12, 2025: 14
  
• To put this in perspective:
• generally one can expect around two or three permit renewals;
• often there are days when there are no permit renewals;
• anything above five permits renewals gets my attention.

Hydrogen -- Doesn't Sound Promising -- Update -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48619HYDROGEN.

Updates

RBN Energy: as hydrogen market evolves, best uses will focus on cost, sustainability. Archived. Posted May 14, 2025 -- wow -- original post (below) was posted May 13, 2025 -- one day earlier!

Hydrogen has a well-established, if limited, role in the modern economy. It has been used in refining and ammonia production for decades, but its potential has long been touted in various areas, including decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial processes such as steelmaking, as well as in larger roles in heavy-duty transportation and energy storage.

The last few years have seen a significant push to expand hydrogen’s role — an attempt to capitalize on its versatility and lack of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions —  but a number of formidable obstacles to wider adoption remain, including price, availability and infrastructure, in addition to its tenuous political support.

In today’s RBN blog, we look at the challenges that make forecasting the industry’s growth difficult and the emerging consensus around the most practical end uses for hydrogen.

Original Post

Note: some of these links are as much as two years old. ChatGPT would be current, so I assume the "general theme" is accurate but specifics may have changed.

Links:

• Toyota:
• the Mirai XLE
• reduces price of new hydrogen car in California to $15,190
• includes $15,000 of free fuel
• total cost of new Toyota hydrogen car in California: $190
• needs to be fact-checked
• linked at Hydrogeninsight: https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/toyota-reduces-price-of-new-hydrogen-car-in-california-to-just-over-15-000-with-15-000-of-free-fuel/2-1-1769729?zephr_sso_ott=zyTLed.

So, let's go down this rabbit hole.

Google: cost of hydrogen for car mileage

I find this incredibly interesting. I track the fuel-mileage cost for every vehicle I drive, whether I own it, or rent it for a cross-country trip. I pay anywhere from, on average, eleven to thirteen cents per mile. I have, on occasion, gotten down to 9 cents per mile. For hydrogen:

Again, Hydrogeninsight:

 

Remember: hydrogen was promoted by, ask ChatGPT, "who promoted hydrogen for US transportation:

• Bush, Obama, Biden
• progressives
• the "woke" crowd

Hydrogen: the day the music died -- December 23, 2024. Link here.

Hydrogen is tracked on the blog here.

ChatGPT:

As of 2025, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) are available in the U.S., primarily in California due to its established hydrogen refueling infrastructure. The main manufacturers offering these vehicles are Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola.

---

🚗 Passenger Hydrogen Vehicles

Toyota Mirai

• Type: Mid-size luxury sedan

• Price: Starts at $50,190 for the XLE trim; Limited trim priced at $67,115

• Range: Up to 402 miles (EPA estimated)

• Incentives: Toyota offers a $25,000 rebate, reducing the price to $27,890 for qualified buyers in California, along with 0% APR for 72 months. Additionally, buyers receive $15,000 worth of complimentary hydrogen fuel over six years or three years for leases. 

Hyundai Nexo

• Type: Compact crossover SUV

• Price: Starts at $60,135 for the Blue trim; Limited trim priced at $63,585

• Range: Up to 380 miles (Blue trim)

• Incentives: Includes $15,000 in complimentary hydrogen fuel over six years (three years for leases), eligibility for California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate, and other perks like HOV lane access. 

Honda CR-V e:FCEV

 

(Expected in 2025)

• Type: Plug-in hydrogen SUV

• Price: Estimated at $51,350

• Features: Combines plug-in electric capability for short trips with hydrogen fuel cell technology for extended range, offering flexibility for various driving needs. 

---

🚛 Commercial Hydrogen Vehicles

Nikola Tre FCEV

• Type: Class 8 hydrogen-electric semi-truck

• Target Market: Commercial freight and logistics companies

• Sales: Nikola sold 72 hydrogen-fuel-cell trucks in Q2 2024, surpassing its 60-unit guidance. 

---

⚠️ Availability and Infrastructure

Currently, hydrogen vehicles are predominantly available in California due to its network of hydrogen refueling stations. Other states, including Kansas, lack sufficient infrastructure, making ownership of hydrogen vehicles impractical at this time.

---

🔮 Future Developments

• BMW iX5 Hydrogen: BMW plans to introduce its first hydrogen-powered model in 2028, aiming to expand the hydrogen vehicle market. 

• Hyperion XP-1: A hydrogen-powered hypercar boasting a range of over 1,000 miles and a top speed of 221 mph, currently in development. 

---

For residents outside California, including Kansas, it’s advisable to monitor developments in hydrogen infrastructure and consider alternative zero-emission vehicles, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which currently have broader support nationwide.

AI / ChatGPT: often comical. Why in the world ... 

• for residents outside California, including Kansas ....
  
• other states, including Kansas, lack sufficient infrastructure, making ownership of hydrogen vehicles impractical at this time .... 
  

April Inflation Comes In Lower Than Expected -- Taco Tuesday -- May 13, 2025

Locator: 48618B.

SIRTRUMP: check out the inflation report this a.m.  Following the report, the DOW turns more negative, down 165 points, and the NASDAQ turns green, up 60 points. 

China oil imports: Saudi crude flows to China remain at one-year high. Doesn't feel like a recession to me.

Focus today: hydrogen. Later.

United Health: oh-oh.

McDonald's: to hire 375,000 new employees. Doesn't sound like a recession to me. Will add 900 locations; currently has 13,500 locations in the US. 6.7% increase.

ChatGPT: this morning. The query: "Bakken blogs." Six-paragraph response, and this was at the top:

Million Dollar Way: has nothing to do with investing or "money to be made in the Bakken." It refers to the main highway leading out of Williston when I was growing up in North Dakota, my "way" of getting out of Williston when traveling. LOL. Seriously.

DFW:

• Starbucks: coffee, $3.85; plain croissant, $4.25
• McDonald's coffee, $2.19; two hash browns, $4.18

Back on the road: generally on this trip, much more time for blogging.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

The big story in the Bakken right now? For the past several days, the number of permits being renewed is as high as I've ever seen. Below, I’ve posted the numbers. 

WTI: $62.73.

New wells:

Wednesday, May 14, 2025: 35 for the month, 135 for the quarter, 327 for the year,

• 40910, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5D,
• 40804, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-LW-154-93-1004H-1,
• 40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H,
• 39981, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 3H,
• 37575, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 TFH,

Tuesday, May 13, 2025: 30 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 322 for the year,

• 39819, conf, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-91-1819H-2, 

Bakken permits renewed over the past few days:

• past week
• Monday, May 5, 2025: 18
• Tuesday, May 6, 2025: 14
• Wednesday, May 7, 2025: 14
• Thursday, May 8, 2025: 21
• Friday, May 9, 2025: 16
• Monday, May 12, 2025: 14
  

RBN Energy: Vaquero Midstream breaks into the big time with Delaware Basin expansion. Archived.

The Permian’s Midland and Delaware basins have seen their share of midstream success stories the past few years — many of them privately backed efforts to gain a foothold and then expand into the big time. Navitas Midstream Partners (later sold to Enterprise Products Partners) comes to mind; so do Oryx Midstream and Brazos Midstream. Now comes Vaquero Midstream — vaquero, of course, being Spanish for cowboy — the scrappy developer of a gas gathering and processing network in the Delaware. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, Vaquero recently announced plans to build a new high-pressure pipeline that will double the capacity of its gathering system and a new processing plant that will give it a total of 600 MMcf/d of processing capacity with a slew of interconnections to key gas and NGL takeaway pipelines. 

First, an explanation of our song title and why it fits today’s topic. “Rhinestone Cowboy” may conjure up images of country music’s Glen Campbell duded up in fancy, gem-encrusted attire, ”riding out on a horse in a Star-Spangled rodeo.” But the song’s lyrics reveal it’s really the story of a determined, hard-working singer with a dream who won’t give up ’til he’s “where the lights are shining on me ... like a Rhinestone Cowboy.”

That’s also the story of Vaquero Midstream, which over the past nine years has been operating and expanding a network for gathering rich, NGL-packed associated gas in the West Texas part of the Delaware and shuttling it to a processing complex where it is separated into residue gas and mixed NGLs. That network, which we first discussed in 2017, currently includes more than 200 miles of low- and high-pressure lines (dark-green lines in Figure 1 below), plus two 200-MMcf/d gas processing plants at Vaquero’s Caymus complex (magenta star) just over the line in Pecos County, near the all-important Waha gas hub (magenta circle; more on that in a moment.) Caymus I came online in 2016, and Caymus II started up in 2018.

Figure 1. Vaquero Midstream’s Gas Gathering and Processing Network. Source: RBN