Locator: 48621TRAIN.
Updates
May 22, 2025: nothing new here. Updated numbers. That's about it. Link here.
I believe the last estimate just a few months ago, was another $7 billion would be needed by next summer; now it's estimated that another $10.2 billion may be needed by next summer in order to continue funding the project, and there might be a $400 million cost reduction. New estimate is on the higher range and is largely due to inflation.
Reminder: California's current budget is as much as $12 billion underwater (a deficit of $12 billion) so this new number for the bullet train, $10.2 billion, is unachievable under the present circumstances, unless the Federal government steps up to the plate. Next proposal: a $10-billion bond proposal for California taxpayers.
If the $10.2 billion goes forward, that will make the project more expensive than the entire project that was proposed decades ago. Th updated cost estimate for the Merced to Bakersfield corridor ranges form $34.9 billion to $38.5 billion. The initial proposal was $45 billion for the entire project form San Francisco to Los Angeles.
In round numbers that $38.5 billion is $40 billion and no one would be surprised if that was eventually raised to $50 billion.
Original Post
From the linked article:
Of all the government-spending boondoggles in history, California’s bullet train may be the most costly ever. That’s not news. In 2015, it topped the Houston Chronicle‘s John Boyd’s list of America’s 20 biggest wastes of money ever at $68 billion. That was just a little over double the $33 billion California’s politicians promised it would cost when they asked voters to approve it in 2008.
Ten Years Later
The Associated Press‘ Sophie Austin reports “the project’s price tag now exceeds $100 billion, more than triple the initial estimate.” In her article, she describes how far along the project is and the current plans the CEO of the California High-Speed Rail Authority, Ian Choudri, has for moving it forward.
California’s construction is far from completion. Of the 119 miles (192 kilometers) of construction underway in the Central Valley, only a 22-mile (35-kilometer) stretch is ready for the track-laying phase, which isn’t set to start until next year.
Finishing the line in the Valley is just the first step. Next, the train has to extend north toward the San Francisco Bay Area and south toward Los Angeles. Choudri’s goal within the next 20 years is to build to Gilroy, about 70 miles (113 kilometers) southeast of San Francisco. Under current public transit, it would then take at least one more train transfer to get into the city.
Southward, he envisions building to Palmdale, 37 miles (60 kilometers) northeast of Los Angeles. From there, it takes more than one hour to drive or two hours on an existing train line to reach Los Angeles.
In 2020, the population of Palmdale was 169,000, and the population of Gilroy was 58,000, who are no doubt excited they’ll be able to travel between the two cities on California’s high-speed rail as early as 2045.
