Thursday, September 29, 2022

Thursday Night Ramblings -- September 29, 2022

Global economy: it "feels" like --

  • we're in for something worse than "stagflation";
  • clearly we're in a recession, or headed for a recession, or something worse;
  • we may need a new term for what's about to happen (2022 - 2023 - 2024)
  • in the US:
    • a lot of middle class families are not going "to make it"
    • the wealthy will do just fine as they always do
    • the well-to-do who have discretionary income and who continue to invest will be doing very well by 2025;
  • "green" is dead; renewable energy is dead;

Fossil fuel:

  • crude oil: at $60 "we've" hit bottom;
  • the question is not whether we hit $100-oil again, it's "when"?
  • the question is whether we hit $150-oil in 2023;
  • the question is whether I'll see $200-oil before my investing days are over (hopefully not before 2033)

Ukraine:

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The Book Page

Bees: link here.

From wiki:

The Buckfast bee is a breed of honey bee, a cross of many subspecies and their strains, developed by Brother Adam (born Karl Kehrle in 1898 in Germany), who was in charge of beekeeping from 1919 at Buckfast Abbey in Devon in the United Kingdom. 
Breeding of the Buckfast bee is now done by breeders throughout Europe belonging to the Federation of European Buckfast Beekeepers (G.D.E.B.). This organization maintains a pedigree for Buckfast bees, originating from the time of Brother Adam. In 1916, only 16 surviving colonies were left in the abbey. All of them were either pure Ligurian (Italian) or of Ligurian origin, hybrids between Ligurian and the English black bee A. m. mellifera
Brother Adam also imported some more Italian queens. From these, he began to develop what would come to be known as the Buckfast bee. 
The Buckfast bee is popular among beekeepers and is available from bee breeders in Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and other places. 
The Buckfast bees' qualities are very favourable, sometimes referred to as the beekeepers' bee. They are non-aggressive and highly productive. Brother Adam, in his book, Beekeeping at Buckfast Abbey, writes that in 1920 they obtained "an average of no less than 192 lbs surplus per colony and individual yields exceeding 336 lbs." 
In the 1986 BBC-affiliated documentary, The Monk and the Honey Bee, more than 400 pounds of honey are reported to have been produced by a single Buckfast colony. 

Buckfast Abbey:

  • an active Benedictine monastery
  • near Buckfastleigh, Devon, England
  • the first Benedictine abbey was followed by a Savignac (later Cistercian abbey)
  • demolished in 16th century; re-built in 19th century 

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The Movies

Watching Murder, My Sweet (1944) for the fifth time in five days. Each time I watch it I see something different. Amazing how many "moments" from this movie pop up in movies in the last 20th century.

So much about which to write.

Only these data points:

  • supporting actress, Anne Grayle, with star on Hollywood Walk of Fame
  • 1918 - 1993 (75 years of age; lung cancer)
  • film debut, 1922 (child star)
  • retired from acting in 1944, at the age of 26
  • last acting role, Murder, My Sweet

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Hurricanes

Hurricane Doria:

  • late August, 1971: I was in Westfield, NJ, a bedroom suburb to NYC, when Doria hit;
  • Hurricane Ian reminds me a lot of Hurricane Doria, or vice versa;

Broken Links, Hacked, Scam -- ALERT — September 29, 2022

ALERT.

I may have a problem with the blog, the blogger app, or the public server I was using.

Some of my links are now taking me to a phishing expedition, obviously a scam.

If a link takes you to a site asking for personal information or takes you to a site you did not expect or do not recognize, close that site and move on. Perhaps best to close the browser and start over, and avoid my blog.

If the blog appears to have been taken over by a third party, the blog will be taken down.

Right now, it appears to be due to a problem with the public server I was using and not due to the blog or the blogger app itself. The blog works fine with my secure home server.

This blog will be taken down about 9:00 a.m. CT, Friday, September 30, 2022.

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Back to the Bakken

EOG: declares a quarterly dividend of 75 cents. The dividend will be payable October 31, 2022, for those of record, October 17, 2022. I believe this is unchanged from previous quarterly dividend (in line with previous dividend).

Active rigs: 45.

No new permits.

One permit canceled:

  • 38953, Oasis, Kestrel 5401 34-22 5BX.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37073, 93, BR, Cleofilll 1A, Croff, TD = 22205; t--; cum 29K 7/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20222913064131121730321011209880
BAKKEN6-20222015473152521686119315192870
BAKKEN5-2022310940000
BAKKEN4-20221894011137113500
BAKKEN3-20220000000
  • 37076, 0, BR, Cleofill 1D, Croff, TD = 21579, t--; cum 35K 7/22; 
  • 37077, 0, BR, Cleofill 1E, Croff, TD = 21653, t--; cum 26K 7/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223119802196332793833323332870
BAKKEN6-2022964786385937310445104300
BAKKEN5-202231000000
BAKKEN4-202260015617000
  • 36241, 37, BR, Stortroen 1C TFH, Dimmick Lake, TD=21646; t--; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202218363654212820232
  • 37541, 0, BR, Don Juan 3C-UTFH-ULW, Dimmick Lake, TD = 21187; t--; cum --;

The BR Curtis Wells -- We Will Get Around To Them When We Get Around To Them

Note the "test" date for:

  • 30869: 7/17
  • 30870: 7/17
  • 30871: 7/17
  • 30872: 6/17

Normally, permits/wells with #30XXX were drilled in 2020 and later.

The Curtis wells are co-located with the Saddle Butte wells; the former run south to north; the latter run north to south.

These wells are sited in section 16-149-96 (one exception: sited to the north but runs south into that section):

The wells:

  • 30872, 526, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 MBH-3SH, North Fork, t6/17; cum 419K 7/22;
  • 30871, 284, BR, Curtis 21-16 TFH-3NH, North Fork, t7/17; cum 640K 7/22;
  • 30870, 342, BR, Saddle Butte 21-16 TFH-2SH, North Fork, t7/17; cum 592K 7/22;
  • 30869, 582, BR, Curtis 21-16 MBH-2NH, North Fork, t7/17; cum 678K 7/22;
  • 17340, 805, BR, Saddle Butte 11-16H, North Fork, t5/09; cum 163K;
  • 30910, 1,301, BR, Curtis 24-9MBH, North Forth, t2/19; cum 457K 7/22;

Texas Friday Night Football -- September 29, 2022

Link here

Wow, they take their football seriously here in Texas.

  • Visitor: Colleyville Heritage High School, Grapevine, TX (we live next to this school) -- Texas ranking; #195
  • Home: Grapevine High School, Grapevine, TX (granddaughter Olivia is a junior here) -- Texas ranking; #53

Note on rankings:

  • rankings are all high schools, regardless of size. Largest schools are 6A; Colleyville and Grapevine are smaller, but still huge, 5A
  • for comparison: North Dakota's Fargo schools might be 5A in Texas, but the other Big 6 in North Dakota would be 4A at best


Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- September 29, 2022

US oil: days of supply. Continues to extend / increase.

  • latest: 26.9 days
  • at end of August: 25.5 days

Usual disclaimers apply. 

California gasoline: link here. 

Buffett buys more OXY:

  • Charles Kennedy: link here.
  • social media: link here.
  • open book test, essay question: is OXY a buy?

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.

Blue ammonia: green energy?

  • LOL.
  • Saudi Arabia and UAE using the production process to extract ... more oil.
  • Link here.

Florida:

Messler, link here:

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Back to the Bakkeen

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $82.02. Stalled out, and will drop after hurricane leaves Florida.

Natural gas: $7.043.

Active rigs: 46.

Friday, September 30, 2022: 56 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 445 for the year
38716, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-7H, Pembroke, see this post;
38334, conf, Oasis, Soto 5097 12-3 3B, Siverston;
37867, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27HU,
36987, conf, Enerplus, Bass 149-94-36C-25H,
30924, conf, BR, Curtis 44-9 MBH,
30923, conf, BR, Curtis 44-9 TFH,

Thursday, September 29, 2022: 50 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 439 for the year
38717, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-14H, Pembroke, see this post;
37428, conf, Enerplus, Cutthroat 149-94-36C-25H-TF,
30925, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9TFH,

RBN Energy: inflation reduction act's new methane charge takes aim at emissions, part 2.

The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers a lot of incentives, mostly in the way of tax credits, to advance the Biden administration’s clean-energy initiatives and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There are inducements for everything from carbon capture and electric vehicles to renewable energy and hydrogen production, but very few penalties. One exception is included in the new law’s Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP), which features the federal government’s first-ever fee on the emissions of any GHG. In today’s RBN blog, we look at recent attempts to mitigate methane emissions, how the new methane charge will work, and how it could one day be replaced by new federal rules.

Hurricane Ian: Moving Very, Very Slowly; Still Over Middle Of Florida -- September 29, 2022

Oncor, Texas: "our" utility company has pre-positioned 500 men outside of Tampa

  • assuming an average of 2.5 men per truck, are we talking upwards of 200 utility trucks?

Downgraded:

  • tropical storm as of 4:00 a.m. Thursday morning, September 29, 2022
  • over Orlando, early Thursday morning
  • won't leave Florida until at least mid-day
  • won't regain hurricane status

GDP: next story to be reported. Link here. Floorida: #4.

Hurricane Ian:

  • the hurricane:
  • Florida:
    • St Petersburg, FL: 27.7676° N, 82.6403°W.
    • Tampa, FL: 27.9506° N, 82.4572°W.
    • Ft Meyers, FL: brunt of the storm? 26.6406° N, 81.8723°W.
  • 9:41 a.m. CT: eye of the hurricane, per google winds -- 26.50° N, 82.55°.
    • just slightly south and just off-shore from St Petersburg, FL
    • St Petersburg, FL, now feeling the brunt of the storm
  • 11:01 a.m. CT: eye of the hurricane, per google winds -- 26.62° N, 82.59°.
  • 2:53 p.m. CT: eye of the hurricane, per google winds -- 26.71° N, 82.15°. East of St Petersburg/Tampa; slightly south "by definition" but obviously right on top of the cities. 
  • 4:25 p.m. CT: eye of the hurricane, per google winds -- 26.77° N, 82.10°
  • 4:35 a.m. CT, Thursday morning, day after landfall: 27.80° N, 81.31°.

CVX: Tell Me You're Not Moving To Texas Without Telling Me You're Not Moviing To Texas -- September 29, 2022

Relocations to Texas from California tracked with this tag.
Chevron Corp. has sold its current headquarters in California and plans to move into a nearby leased space about one-third of the size, as it continues to relocate employees to Texas.

Chevron / Sunset Development Co

  • sells huge headquarters campus to Sunset
  • leases small nearby facility from Sunset
The second-largest U.S. oil company closed the sale Wednesday of its Chevron Park campus in San Ramon, California, its global headquarters for two decades, to Sunset Development Co. The family-run company had originally sold the 92-acre parcel to Chevron in the early 1980s.

Sunset Chief Executive Alex Mehran Jr. said Chevron also signed a lease for nearly 400,000 square feet of space in a nearby office building located in Sunset’s Bishop Ranch mixed-use project in San Ramon. Chevron’s office space there could house about 2,000 employees after interior construction finishes in late 2023, Sunset said.

Chevron’s main offices have resided in California for more than 140 years. It has housed its main offices in the greater Bay Area since the early days of its first corporate ancestor, Pacific Coast Oil Co., in 1879. It moved hundreds of employees to San Ramon in 1999, and in the early 2000s said it would become the company’s headquarters.

But its presence in California has been declining for years, particularly following a reorganization that began in 2019. Some of Chevron’s leadership have long wanted to move the company’s headquarters to Texas, but it has held off largely because of its long history in California and its assets there, such as its Richmond, Calif., refinery, according to people familiar with the matter.

“Chevron will remain headquartered in California,” spokesman Braden Reddall said, citing the company’s long history, operations and partnerships in the state.

Tell us again you're not relocating to Texas.

 Paying a lot of California taxes to keep emotional attachment intact. 

Much more at the link.

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- September 29, 2022

Usual disclaimers apply.

As promised:

Laser-focused on dividends

  • as promised, this is the stand-alone post on dividend news
  • companies are going to find out that investors want dividends, not stock buybacks
  • Apple: bought a lot of its own stock -- could have paid dividends -- stock plummets 4% in one day
  • not sure how stock buybacks helped investors
  • and, oh, by the way, it looks like Apple bought high

Two stories:

  • Starbucks
  • Ferguson

Starbucks:

  • raises dividend to 53 cents
  • record date: 11/11/22
  • pay date: 11/25/22
  • was 49 cents;
  • four-cent raise was same as four-cent raise a year ago

Ferguson:

  • raises dividend to $1.91 (semi-annual)
  • ex-div: 10/27/22
  • record date: 10/28/22
  • pay date: 12/8/22
  • current dividend: 84 cents
  • one year ago: zero
  • hasn't paid a 2H dividend since 2019 -- just before Covid lockdown, March, 2020
  • current yield: 1.55%
  • P/E: 11

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.

Fast And Furious -- September 29, 2022

Usual disclaimers apply.

Apple: wow, the technology is amazing. I assume this has been here all along, but I just noticed it --

  • the dock at the bottom of my desktop Apple has all the usual icons: Firefox, Safari, Chrome, FaceTime, iMessage, iMusic, and a dozen others;
  • this morning I noticed "Firefox From MacBook Air" which links the desktop from my MacBook Air
  • how cool is that

Apple:

  • huge buying opportunity.

Tampa, FL:

  • apparently this is a huge port for Florida for gasoline and fertilizer
  • Florida gets most of its gasoline by ship to Tampa, FL, from Texas, Louisiana refineries
  • fertilizer: ecologic disaster with the storm surge

Bezos:

  • wife -- the one he divorced back in 2021, or thereabouts -- has just divorced her second husband
  • Bezos: fist pump

Buffett:

  • just bought another 5.99 million shares of OXY
  • open-book test
  • essay question: is Buffett telling us something?

California:

  • gasoline just got a lot more expensive
  • and that state isn't experiencing a hurricane

Biden administration:

  • warning oil companies not to increase the price of gasoline in light of current conditions
  • oh, how badly, SecEnergy wants to nationalize XOM, CVX,

CVX:

  • moving to Texas; old news, but big story in The WSJ

Jones Act:

  • Biden temporarily waives Jones Act for Puerto Rico
  • some irony here, I suppose
  • Florida, next -- oh, that's right -- Florida is a red state

Laser-focused on dividends

  • will do a stand-alone post on dividend news
  • companies are going to find out that investors want dividends, not stock buybacks
  • Apple: bought a lot of its own stock -- could have paid dividends -- stock plummets 4% in one day
  • not sure how stock buybacks helped investors
  • and, oh, by the way, it looks like Apple bought high

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.