Thursday Night Ramblings -- September 29, 2022

Global economy: it "feels" like --

• we're in for something worse than "stagflation";
• clearly we're in a recession, or headed for a recession, or something worse;
• we may need a new term for what's about to happen (2022 - 2023 - 2024)
• in the US:
• a lot of middle class families are not going "to make it"
• the wealthy will do just fine as they always do
• the well-to-do who have discretionary income and who continue to invest will be doing very well by 2025;
• "green" is dead; renewable energy is dead;

Fossil fuel:

• crude oil: at $60 "we've" hit bottom;
• the question is not whether we hit $100-oil again, it's "when"?
• the question is whether we hit $150-oil in 2023;
• the question is whether I'll see $200-oil before my investing days are over (hopefully not before 2033)

Ukraine:

• Peter Zeihan still has it correct;

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The Book Page

Bees: link here.

From wiki:

The Buckfast bee is a breed of honey bee, a cross of many subspecies and their strains, developed by Brother Adam (born Karl Kehrle in 1898 in Germany), who was in charge of beekeeping from 1919 at Buckfast Abbey in Devon in the United Kingdom. 

Breeding of the Buckfast bee is now done by breeders throughout Europe belonging to the Federation of European Buckfast Beekeepers (G.D.E.B.). This organization maintains a pedigree for Buckfast bees, originating from the time of Brother Adam. In 1916, only 16 surviving colonies were left in the abbey. All of them were either pure Ligurian (Italian) or of Ligurian origin, hybrids between Ligurian and the English black bee A. m. mellifera. 

Brother Adam also imported some more Italian queens. From these, he began to develop what would come to be known as the Buckfast bee. 

The Buckfast bee is popular among beekeepers and is available from bee breeders in Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and other places. 

The Buckfast bees' qualities are very favourable, sometimes referred to as the beekeepers' bee. They are non-aggressive and highly productive. Brother Adam, in his book, Beekeeping at Buckfast Abbey, writes that in 1920 they obtained "an average of no less than 192 lbs surplus per colony and individual yields exceeding 336 lbs." 

In the 1986 BBC-affiliated documentary, The Monk and the Honey Bee, more than 400 pounds of honey are reported to have been produced by a single Buckfast colony. 

Buckfast Abbey:

• an active Benedictine monastery
• near Buckfastleigh, Devon, England
• the first Benedictine abbey was followed by a Savignac (later Cistercian abbey)
• demolished in 16th century; re-built in 19th century 

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The Movies

Watching Murder, My Sweet (1944) for the fifth time in five days. Each time I watch it I see something different. Amazing how many "moments" from this movie pop up in movies in the last 20th century.

So much about which to write.

Only these data points:

• supporting actress, Anne Grayle, with star on Hollywood Walk of Fame
• 1918 - 1993 (75 years of age; lung cancer)
• film debut, 1922 (child star)
• retired from acting in 1944, at the age of 26
• last acting role, Murder, My Sweet

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Hurricanes

Hurricane Doria:

• late August, 1971: I was in Westfield, NJ, a bedroom suburb to NYC, when Doria hit;
• Hurricane Ian reminds me a lot of Hurricane Doria, or vice versa;