Thursday, October 17, 2013

This Should Be Good: Bakken Product Markets And Takeaway Capacity Conference, Denver, Late January, 2014

Website here.

Nice agenda:
  • day 1: rail vs pipeline
  • day 2: natural gas and NGLs with focus on minimizing flaring
This will be posted at "Conferences" at the sidebar at the right.

January 29 - 30, 2014, Denver, Colorado. Register by Friday, November 15, 2014, and save $400. 

Reuters Gets It -- A Day Late And A Dollar Short; On-Line Exchanges Can't Even Capture Small Trickle Of Enrollees Correctly


October 18, 2013: the Federal website can't even handle the small trickle of enrollees.
Insurers say the federal health-care marketplace is generating flawed data that is straining their ability to handle even the trickle of enrollees who have gotten through so far, in a sign that technological problems extend further than the website traffic and software issues already identified.

Emerging errors include duplicate enrollments, spouses reported as children, missing data fields and suspect eligibility determinations, say executives at more than a dozen health plans. Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Nebraska said it had to hire temporary workers to contact new customers directly to resolve inaccuracies in submissions. Medical Mutual of Ohio said one customer had successfully signed up for three of its plans.
The flaws could do lasting damage to the law if customers are deterred from signing up or mistakenly believe they have obtained coverage.
Original Post

Reuters is reporting:
As U.S. officials warned that the technology behind Obamacare might not be ready to launch on October 1, the administration was pouring tens of millions of dollars more than it had planned into the federal website meant to enroll Americans in the biggest new social program since the 1960s
A Reuters review of government documents shows that the contract to build the federal online insurance website - key to President Barack Obama's signature healthcare reform - tripled in potential total value to nearly $292 million as new money was assigned to the work beginning in April this year
The increase coincided with warnings from federal and state officials that the information technology underlying the online marketplaces, or exchanges, where people could buy Obamacare health insurance was in trouble. In March, Henry Chao, deputy chief information officer at the lead Obamacare agency, said at an insurance-industry meeting that he was "pretty nervous" about the exchanges being ready by October 1, adding, "let's just make sure it's not a third-world experience." At the same event, his colleague Gary Cohen said, "Everyone recognizes that day one will not be perfect."
That was an understatement. Not only was opening day not perfect, by all standards it was a failure. I'm not sure it even measured up to a third-world experience. 

The story is not news for regular readers of the blog. What is interesting is that mainstream media outlets like Reuters are now seeing how bad this is. On top of everything else, the technology was built by the lowest bidder.

The president and Congress now own it. It will be interesting to see if Ms Sebelius resigns sooner or later.

Williston Wire Headlines: $100 Million Event Center For Dickinson? ranks North Dakota as best state for young people.

The Ridge, a 160-acre development in Williston: construction has started; 96 condominiums starting at $199,000.

Labor and housing shortages still exist in Williston. If I recall correctly, the county commissioners have put a moratorium on any new building permits. I think it was a 6-month moratorium that might expire in February, 2014. The city shut down church-sponsored homeless shelter. WWJD? Despite what others are saying, by my definition, this is still a boom.

And then this, from a writer in Grand Forks talking about the oil patch: "the boom shows no sign of slackening." I guess I was correct; the boom continues despite what writesrs from the East Coast might be saying. A nice article at the link.

Moxi Fuel Nutrition and Apparel, owned by ex-professional fighter Derek Deese and ex-baseball player Mat Powell has now opened in Williston.

Watford City's South Park Plaza, anchored by Cash Wise grocer, is filing up: China Express, American Smoke Wagon, Mailbox Solutions, Red Wing, Taco Johns', Saddle Up, Z Wireless and Happy Joe's Pizza

Dickinson State University considering a $100 million event center and arena grounds, complete with a multipurpose arena, exhibition building, DSU rodeo faciltiy, and  a main events center facilty that would seat up to 5,500 people. Proposed name: The Badlands Event Center.

A new chapter of an international professionals group is puttin gdown roots in Bismarck: Young Professionals in Energy.

Sixteen (16) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Whiting Reports Three Nice Wells In Its Pronghorn Prospect; Burlington Resources With Two High IP Wells; Slawson With Several New Wells Completed; Wells Coming Off Confidential List Friday

Active rigs: 185

Sixteen (16) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (4), KOG (4), EOG (2), CLR (2), Whiting, Flatirons, Corinthian, Samson Resources
  • Fields: Long Creek (Williams), Rainbow (Williams), New Home (Williams), Lonesome (McKenzie), Torning (Ward), North Souris (Bottineau), Epping (Williams), Ambrose (Divide), Squaw Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Note the permit in Ward County (Flatirons Resources, Torning oil field)
Wells coming off the confidential list were reported earlier; see sidebar at the right. 

Eight (8) producing wells completed:
  • 23768, 783, Slawson, Waterbond 7-27-34TFH, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 35K 8/13;
  • 24896, 448, Slawson, Jeriyote 4-32-5TFH, Big Bend, t7/13; cum 17K 8/13;
  • 24897, 325, Slawson, Jeriyote 5-32-5TFH, Big Bend, t7/13; cum 19K 8/13; 
  • 25049, 737, Slawson, Alamo 6-19-18TFH, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 37K 8/13;
  • 25050, 891, Slawson, Alamo 3-19-18H, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 49K 8/13;
  • 23506, 1,758, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-9-17D-08-6H, Four Bears, t9/13; cum --
  • 24993, 2,952, BR, Cleo 41-1TFH, Croff, t9/13; cum --
  • 24991, 2,834, BR, Cleo 31-1TFH, Croff, t9/13; cum --
Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
  • 23959, 1,642, Whiting, Havelka 14-17PH, Dutch Henry Butte, t4/13; cum 47K 8/13;
  • 23960, 1864, Whiting, Havelka 34-17PH, Dutch Henry Butte, t4/13; cum 53K 8/13;
  • 23961, 1,301, Whiting, Havelka 44-17PH, Dutch Henry Butte, t4/13; cum 35K 8/13;
  • 24266, 128 (no typo), Samson Resources, Montclair 0112-6TFH, Ambrose, t8/13; cum 8K 8/13;
  • 24843, drl, CLR, Wahpeton 6-16H, Banks, no production data,
  • 25026, 447, Slawson, Coyote 3-32H, Big Bend, t7/13; cum 24K 8/13;
  • 25215, A, Armstrong Operating, Scherr 1-18, Duperow/Deadwood/Dawson Bay; wildcat, no IP reported; far southeast Dunn County; southeast of Murphy Creek oil field; OXY has a well on confidential/wildcat in this same general area (#25372)
  • 25235, drl, BR, Everglades 21-3TFH, Keene, producing, producing, but not completed; no IP provided

On The Road

I'm heading out early today.

I will be on the road later this evening. My blogging will occur during coffee breaks at McDonald's and Starbucks I find along the way. I will be driving cross-country over the next several days.

I will not post as often.

I definitely won't get to my e-mail as often.

I won't be able to manage/post/moderate/answer comments at "The Bakken Shake Discussion Group."

I expect the worse, with regard to blogging, over the next two weeks, but things generally turn out better than expected.

Good luck to all.

Hitchhikers should watch for a 2012 Honda Civic heading north out of Dallas.

If you have not read the Reuters/Rigzone article on the Bakken explaining why the skeptics were wrong, I highly recommend you read it now, before the source archives it, takes it off the net. It validates everything the milliondollarway has been talking about since 2007. It's one of the best articles on the Bakken I have ever seen.

Is Something Going On With Oasis?

I have been blogging since 2007.

Sometime in 2009, I deleted the "original" MillionDollarWay in a fit of insanity, and started over.

In all those years, I have not seen anything like this, the daily activity report yesterday with this lineup:
  • 23350, drl, Oasis, Gramma Federal 5300 41-31T, Baker, no production data,
  • 23935, 663, Oasis, Craig Federal 5892 31-28H, Cottonwood, t5/13; cum 21K 8/13;
  • 23989, 148, Oasis, Domalakes 6092 44-16H, Cottonwood, t5/13; cum 13K 8/13;
  • 24114, 1,243, Oasis, Stim 5504 42-2H, Hebron, t5/13; cum 23K 8/13;
  • 24166, 3,188, Oasis, Travel 5393 14-12T, Sanish, t5/13; cum 62K 8/13;
  • 24194, 3,518, Oasis, Lite 5393 11-11B, Sanish, t6/13; cum 53K 8/13;
  • 24310, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-29A-32-5H, no production data,
  • 24328, 434, Oasis, Dolores 5892 42-23H, Cottonwood, t5/13; cum 13K 8/13;
  • 24415, 1,770, Oasis, Knaebel 5693 41-11T,  Alger, t6/13; cum 32K 8/13;
  • 24428, 830, Oasis, Torgerson RR 5604 31-27H, Bull Butte, t7/13; cum 11K 8/13;
  • 24569, 3,142, Oasis, Inigo 5200 43-20B, Camp, t8/13; cum 29K 8/13;
  • 24643, 2,920, Oasis, Sherman 5200 41-20T, Camp, t8/13; cum 21K 8/13;
  • 24747, 1,511, Newfield, Anderson Federal 152-96-9-4-10H, Westberg, t8/13; cum 12K 8/13;
  • 24760, 1,654, Oasis, Knox 5393 44-4T, Sanish, t7/13; cum 18K 8/13;
  • 24923, 759, Oasis, Warren Federal 5893 42-23H, Cottonwood, t5/13; cum 24K 8/13;
  • 25178, drl, KOG, P Wood 154-98-4-26-35-13H3, Truax, no production data, 
September 24, 2013, I posted: is something going on with Oasis?

Generally (except over a weekend), about six wells come off the confidential list on any given day. Of those six, generally there are three to six operators. Occasionally, we will see a handful of wells drilled by the same operator. I expect to see this more often starting next year when mega-pads (6 wells and more become the norm).

But, this list of Oasis wells is not due to pad drilling, nor is even one field getting all the attention. Oasis reported results from several fields: the Cottonwood, the Baker, the Hebron, the Sanish, the Alger, the Bull Butte, and the Camp. These fields range from mediocre (Hebron) to okay (Cottonwood) to very, very good (the Camp).

Also, note the reported IPs. Four wells made the "high IP" list and other wells were close.

It looks like Oasis is routinely using 36-stage fracks, and sand/ceramic in better fields; sand only in other fields (but this is based on just a couple of wells). The 36-stage frack completion looks like the Oasis standard.

NOG: 3rd Quarter Production And Operations Update

Press release here.
  • production to average 13,000 bopd (3Q13)
  • sequential increase of almost 20%
  • average net realized price/bbl = $82 
Average daily production, from "Snapshot":
  • 2008: 140 bbls
  • 2009: 800 bbls
  • 2010: 2,500 bbls
  • 2011: 5,000 bbls
  • 4Q12: 10,000 boepd

Thursday -- 17th Day Of The Government Shutdown; Should Be The Last Day; Workers to Return To Work Today; Corporate Germany Looking Overseas Where Energy Is Less Expensive -- How's That Solar Energy Working Out?

Active rigs: 184

RBN Energy: the golden age of natural gas -- history, recap, and looking forward --
All of this natural gas regulatory stuff can be complex (and boring) enough to be confined to the interested and the nerdy.  But here’s all you really need to know in just one paragraph. 
In the first period (1954-70) prices were legally held too low to bring enough gas to market.  That cheap gas caused a lot of demand to grow, especially after the Clean Air Act got a lot of coal plants to switch to natural gas, but the nation ran out of gas. 
In the second period (1970-79), end-users were legally told whether or not they could use gas, having to go to Washington to get permission.  You can imagine how well that worked out.  
Then in the third period (1979-93), Congress tried to fix things, didn’t quite know what they were doing, and ended up with a huge, complicated, subsidized pricing structure.  And the way pipelines bought gas under that structure led to an artificial oversupply (a lot of gas had been developed because a legal tilt of the playing field let it be sold for much more than it was really worth).  We called that the gas bubble.  
Then, as the government/legal side of things got fixed finally, in the early 1990s, the market took advantage of that oversupply without recognizing that the oversupply depended on the tilted pricing structure that didn't exist anymore--so supply wasn't being replenished.  Basically, it was like living on savings instead of income, and predictably it ran out.  That’s when we had the price run-up and volatility everyone remembers in the early 2000s.  

The world is completely different now.  Today we have a demand market that is free to use gas to the extent it wants, at a given price.  We have producers who are free to develop more by drilling and completing as the demand market asks for it, enabled by technology (shale development) to do so in a smoother, more immediate response than was possible in the days of the monster offshore fields.
 The Wall Street Journal

The shutdown is over; everyone won a little something. I'm thrilled how it all turned out.

Cancer: same mutations tied to 12 cancers.

Since about 1960, some very smart folks have kept copyrights on names to be used for marketing marijuana once it became legal. That day has come, at least in Washington State, and some folks will begin to cash in on those copyright names.

The ObamaPhone folks just got slapped in Georgia. Georgia has become the first state to charge a fee to low-income people who receive free cellphone service through the federal Lifeline program, saying the move would combat fraud.

Rich countries see long-term joblessness continue to increase.

Asylum-seeking man says "it's here": A Pacific island man told a court on Wednesday that rising seas and environmental risks caused by global warming made it too dangerous to return to his homeland of Kiribati.


Huge story: corporate Germany looking to invest overseas -- not at home -- after you get through all the preamble:
Feeble investment in Germany by the country's own business sector is one of the biggest economic headaches facing Chancellor Angela Merkel as she forms a new coalition government for her third term, following last month's elections.
Companies' anemic appetite for investing at home has been puzzling German officials and economists this year. Many hoped that investment would pick up once the outcome of September's election was clear. But a Wall Street Journal survey of German blue-chip companies indicates that the problem runs deeper.
Lack of sales growth in Germany and Europe, now and in companies' expectations for coming years, is deterring many corporations from increasing their investment spending in Germany, where capital expenditure has sunk to near-historic lows as a share of gross domestic product.
You find the reason:
High production costs—especially high energy prices in Germany compared with the U.S. and some European or emerging economies—and lingering uncertainty about the longer-term cohesion of the euro zone are also commonly cited reasons for holding back on domestic investment.

This was predictable: Apple hoped to broaden its appeal with a cheaper version of the iPhone. But that effort appears to be faltering after a few weeks. Fanboys knew "cheap" iPhones would fail. Years ago I told my wife that Apple was a fashion company, much like Gucci. Gucci doesn't sell cheap leather goods to attract a lower socioeconomic customer.

How orchids got so cheap: The once-rare orchid has become a mass-market commodity. Behind the shift are Taiwan entrepreneurs, who have brought to orchid-breeding the energy and methods applied to making consumer electronics like iPads. I posted this because my granddaughter loves flowers, and particularly enjoys orchids. 

US wheat climbs as exports surge. The US has shipped 40% more wheat abroad this season than a year earlier, fueled by surging demand from Brazil and China. Winners: North Dakota farmers, and Warren Buffett (owns BNSF).

Yellen + government shutdown: the combo ends talk of Fed's plan to taper. What's not to like?