Friday, December 27, 2024

The Coming Economic Boom -- The Roaring Twenties -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44553THEROARINGTWENTIES.

Note: The Great Gatsy was published April 10, 1925. 

This might be as good a time as any to re-read a Reader's Digest version of the US economic boom, 1922 to 1929; and, then re-read The Great Gatsby (or watch the movie).

For me, one rendition of the Reader's Digest version of the US economic boom in the 20s: 

The postwar recession that had rocked [William Randolph] Hearst's business empire and made life so difficult for [his accountant] Jim Moore, who had to pay the bills -- was as short-lived as it had been severe.

By 1922, the American economy had embarked upon an extraordinary seven-year growth cycle. 

The business boom was stimulated by the beneficent tax policy that President Warren Harding's secretary of the treasury, the Pittsburgh industrialist Andrew Mellon, shepherded through a Republican-dominated Congress

Maximum tax rates for individuals were reduced from a wartime high of 77 percent to 24 percent, excess profits taxes were abolished, and lower rates were set for capital gains. Hearst benefited additionally when Secretary Mellon's appointees at the Income Tax Bureau reduced his tax liabilities for the war by by $1,737,097. 

Taking full advantage of the economic boom and Republican tax policies, Hearst went on a buying spree... two evening papers and a morning paper ... another evening paper in 1922 ... and then started three new dailies ...

Hearst, who never paid cash for anything, borrowed recklessly to make each of these purchases. by the end of 1922, he had exhausted his working capital to pay off existing debt obligations and was still a half million dollars short of meeting them all.

If you had not guessed, that was from The Chief: The Life of William Randolph Hearst, David Nasaw, c.2000, p. 315. 

2025: And So It Begins -- The Bow Wave -- The "Peak-65 Zone" -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44552BOWWAVE.

Record wave of new 65-year-olds in 2025. 

Link here

This is a huge story, but to some extent, they're jumping the gun. 

Yes, 2025 may be the  leading edge of the bow way of Baby Boomers moving into retirement, but because the age for mandatory RMDs from retirement accounts -- to include the federal government's "401(k)" -- the Thrift Savings Program -- which includes postal carriers and the military -- has now been delayed to age 67 and in a few years to age 70 -- even bigger sums of money will be moving out of retirement accounts two years from now. 

From the lede:

About 4.2 million people in the U.S. are forecast to cross that age threshold next year.
This could represent the height of what is termed the “peak 65” zone, a period of years from 2024 to 2027 in which more than 4.1 million will hit that age level each year.
For financial-services firms, that likely means more demand for investments that can help people close the income gap they expect from not working.
That can be as simple as putting their cash into higher-yielding vehicles, such as money-market funds. Already, investors’ close attention to cash yields is a challenge for banks and brokers accustomed to supercheap deposits.

The phrase "... that can help people close the income gap they expect from not working" caught my attention. Any financial advisor that writes that is also the financial advisor that will recommend a traditional IRA over a Roth IRA .

There is a number of those reaching the "peak 65" zone over the next four years that won't need the RMD income to close the income gap once they stop working. I haven't seen the number or the percent of folks that fall into that category but I'll bet it's not trivial. 

Many folks in the "peak 65" zone will have more disposable income than when they were working. 

[By the way, this may help explain the huge build in money market funds, another topic about which I find little explanation on the business pages of newspapers. But that's a story for another day.]

A lot of those folks will take cruises but a lot of the won't. A lot will plow there RMDs right back into investments, and to the best of my knowledge the only completely tax-free investment is the "529." 

I didn't find the article particularly useful but at least someone is starting to write about the "peak 65" zone.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here.  

Update On The BNSF Bridge, Missouri River, Bismark - Mandan, North Dakota -- February 27, 2024

Locator: 44551TRAIN.

Update on the BNSF bridge across the Missouri River, Bismarck-Mandan.  


Two other links:

  • February 9, 2024: lead lawyer, William Delmore, despite the North Dakota Supreme Court ruling, plans to press on. Link here.
  • May 30, 2024: obituary, William Delmore, Minnesota.

Map / graphic: Google, c. 2024, o/w undated:

US Homelessness -- Another One Of Biden's Legacies -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44550BIDEN.

Along with his pardons and spending now we have this:

On the other hand, this is a pretty interesting metric. It must drive Ms Jennifer Granholm nuts. LOL. Link here:

Virginia -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44549VIRGINIA.

Link here. Or direct to the EIA site.


NOG -- Granite Ridge -- Unaware Of Any Update -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44548NOG.

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Recipes -- Baked Potatoes

ISO-NE -- Trending Toward $250 Friday Morning Commute -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44547ISONE.

Link here.


The main problem right now? Wind. Or lack thereof. Or too strong. Or someone simply forgot to turn on the turbines.

My Favorite Unsolicited E-Mail Of The Year -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44546NETZERO.

Tag: Wells Fargo.

No link.

It was sent to me personally. LOL. The blog's reach must be far and wide. LOL.

Natural Gas, Renewable Energy -- The Day The Music Died -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44545NG.

Natural gas and cost of renewables.

 

Toy Story -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44544LEGO.

Link here

Backorder, look at the prices, link here, this is just a very, very small sampling. There are eleven pages of similar items.




Not only $349.99 (but shipping is free, and no sales tax in Montana), back-order, but also .... hard to find:


Tech Update -- Micron, Musk, And More Apple -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44543TECH.

Micron. Link here

Musk: new GPU cluster in record time. Some folks don't believe him. Link here.

AAPL: $500 billion "bigger" than NVDA. Link here.

JPM: AAPL -- stock pick of the year (2025)? Link here.

Apple stock (AAPL) will end 2024 with a roughly 30% climb, with analysts at JPMorgan projecting even more gains next year. Several Wall Street experts are staking predictions on AAPL to be a top stock option in 2025, rivaling Nvidia and other Mag-7 members. JPMorgan Chase analysts are some of these experts, upping their price predictions for Apple stock.

JPM's Smik Chatterjee expects that boost to eventually come through with the expected launch of the iPhone 17. That should drive iPhone sales from 230 million units in Apple’s fiscal 2025 year to 251 million in fiscal 2026 in his view. Additionally, Chatterjee has an Overweight rating and price target of $265 on Apple stock for the end of next year.

$265: that's the magic number, by the way. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here.  

Real Estate Story Of The Year: Insurance And Taxes Now Cost More Than Mortgages For Many -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44542MORTGAGES.

Link here.

Soaring costs for home insurance and property taxes are busting homeowners’ budgets.  

Insurers have pushed big rate increases because of losses from natural disasters and rising costs to repair homes. Surging home values in recent years, meanwhile, have lifted property taxes for many homeowners.

These ballooning expenses are rewriting the math of homeownership. In September, 32% of the average single-family mortgage payment went to property taxes and home insurance, the highest rate ever for data going back to 2014, according to Intercontinental Exchange

I was led to believe the problem was mostly in Florida. In fact, it's across the nation, including fly-over country:

 
No signs of slowing:

Back To The Bakken -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44541B.

WTI: $70.27. Green.

Sunday, December 29, 2024: 51 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 682 for the year

  • None.

Saturday, December 28, 2024: 51 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 682 for the year

  • 40731, conf, Rockport Energy, Camden 10-3 3H,
  • 39499, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-5H,
  • 37664, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 1A TFH,
Friday, December 27, 2024: 48 for the month; 151 for the quarter, 679 for the year
  • None.

RBN Energy: Gray Oak stands out as the only Permian crude pipeline to greenlight an expansion

As crude oil production in the Permian continues to grow and pipelines from West Texas to the Gulf Coast edge closer to full utilization, it’s becoming a challenge for producers and shippers alike. Amid this capacity crunch, one pipeline stands out as the only one with a detailed expansion plan: the 850-mile, 900-Mb/d Gray Oak Pipeline from West Texas to Corpus Christi and Sweeny, TX, which started up in late 2019 and became fully operational in early 2020. In today’s RBN blog — the latest in our series on Permian crude oil pipelines — we discuss Gray Oak Pipeline’s dynamic story, including its shifting ownership, strategic connectivity and expansion plans.

In Part 1 and Part 3 of this series, we looked at Longhorn Pipeline and BridgeTex Pipeline, respectively, and what ONEOK has accomplished with these systems since it acquired Magellan. In Part 2, we looked at EPIC’s Crude Pipeline to the Corpus Christi area, which has been operating at full capacity. Today, we’ll cover Gray Oak.

We’ll begin by noting that Gray Oak started up shortly before crude oil demand cratered as the pandemic hit. In response, Permian producers shut in a significant amount of production during the summer of 2020. Additionally, two other new Permian pipelines — also to Corpus Christi — started up during the second half of 2019: Plains All American’s Cactus II (585 Mb/d) and EPIC Crude (400 Mb/d, expanded in 2020 to 600 Mb/d), resulting in a glut of crude pipeline egress.

Despite these challenges, Gray Oak’s outflows quickly ramped up throughout 2020. As shown in Figure 1 below, Gray Oak has operated near its 900-Mb/d capacity (dotted horizontal black line) for some time now. Earlier this year, Gray Oak Pipeline LLC sanctioned a 120-Mb/d expansion following a successful open season. Contracted volume commitments of 80 Mb/d start in April 2025 and one year later another 40 Mb/d is committed to the pipe. Gray Oak could offer early service for new or existing shippers if capacity is desired sooner.

Clearing Out The Overnight In-Box -- December 27, 2024

Locator: 44540ARCHIVES.

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LNG

A must-read: the history of US LNG export. Two big takeaways:

  • the Bakken revolution; and,
  • LNG (Cheniere)

Link here

A third big takeaway: American exceptionalism.

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The Book Page

Link here and link here

I simply don't find such quality tweets over at Bluesky.

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Netflix

Set streaming records. Link to The New York Times.

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Hertz -- The Day The Music Died

Link here.


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ISO-NE

Trending toward $180. Link here.

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Seasonal Flu

Link here.

Two weeks from now, should start to get interesting.

One wonders if RFK, Jr. has had his annual flu shot.  LOL.

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Recipes

Big batch eggs.

Link to The New York Times.