Monday, April 21, 2025

Week 17: April 22, 2025 -- April 28, 2025

Locator: 48483TOPSTORIES.

IN PROGRESS

President Trump first 100 days comes to an end April 30, 2025. Top three issues:

  • end of Ukraine - Russian war;
  • tariffs: ongoing; and,
  • southern surge: highly successful.
Latest GDP 1Q25 estimate: - 2.5. GDPNow.

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects. As far as I can tell, Geoff Simon did not "post" this week, Friday April 25, 2025.

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The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

Fourteenth Week Of President Trump's Presidency
14 x 7 = 98 days.

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The Top Stories

TOP STORY: Cardinals convene to begin process of selecting new Pope.

Photo-op of the day:

Biggest story of the week:

Top stories of the week:



Top international non-energy story:
  • Trump administration may assist Saudi Arabia to "go nuclear."

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy stories:



Top national energy story:


Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:

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Three New Permits; Three Permits Renewed -- April 21, 2025

Locator: 44843B.

Space Command:

Focus on dividends:

Harvard - Trump: Harvard may win the skirmish, but Trump will win the war.

Nuclear Mideast: US thinking "big." 

Really, really big. Will open discussions with Saudi Arabia to help the latter go nuclear to counter Iran's intransigence. Now that US has opened that door, one can expect North Korea and/or China will see opportunity.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.08.

Active rigs: 32.

Three new permits, #41832 - #31845, inclusive;

  • Operators: BR (2); Rockport
  • Fields: Elidah (McKenzie); Ranch Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Rockport has a permit for a Sofia well, SWSE 16-146-98, 
      • to be sited 198 FSL ad 2442 FEL
    • BR has permits for two Muri wells, NENW 27-151-97; 
      • to be sited 403 FNL and 2596 / 2564 FWL.

Three permits renewed:

  • CLR: Chloe 8, 9, and 10 -- SWSE 20-156-99, East Fork, Williams County;
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The Military Page -- Moffett Federal Airfield -- April 21, 2025

Locator: 44842GOOGLE.

Photos and story: link here.

The maps: Google's headquarters -- four miles from the airport. Truly amazing on so many levels.




Summary:


Fascinating.

Link here:

Original Post
Moffett Federal Airfield

Distance from Stanford to Moffett Federal Airfield: 8 miles, 14 minutes.

An incredibly interesting story. 

Wiki.

Quick:

Who has a 60-year lease?

Who is the operator of Moffett Federal Airfield?

Name a more historically important airfield than Moffett Airfield in the lower 48.

Next up: the venerable C-130. Deliveries first began in 1956 when I was five years old. About the same age as the oil story in North Dakota. Still setting records in 2025. 

Started out with a 3-blade, four-turboprop engine. Then the  four-blade and most recently, the 8-blade.

The C-130 model during my USAF career? The C-130H.

Wiki.

The newest / current model, the C-130J.  Link here to YouTube.

Wiki.

Just released, March 6, 2025. Amazon.

The C-130: the longest continuously produced military aircraft since the first one rolled off the production line in 1954.
Since its introduction into service the C-130 has produced over seventy variants, including gunships, search-and-rescue and scientific research aircraft, and is currently in service with some seventy nations.
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Another TSMC Update -- April 21, 2025

Locator: 44841TSMC. 

This is where we track TSM: link here.

Think about this: one company; one investment; largest foreign direct investment in one average size US metropolis. And a metropolis known for its retirees, not for its entrepreneurship. I don't recall ever having flown through the Phoenix airport, much less visiting. 

$165 billion: largest in the state's history and the largest foreign direct investment in the US. 

Biden-Trump, the one-two punch:

  • Biden's IRA and CHIPS acts
  • Trump's tariffs -- MAGA initiative

Amazing how things work out.

Thank you to a reader for alerting me to this story. I find this story simply incredible.


 

Link here.

Phoenix Economic Development Director Christine Mackay opens up on how the city worked for a decade to lure semiconductor giant TSMC to the Valley.

 

More, link here:


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Microsoft At 50

I didn't like the format or the clickbait or the superficial analysis, but it's worth reading and will take less than 120 seconds. Link here. The author says "seven" game-changes; I vaguely recall three.

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The Amazing CLR Harms Wells In The Antelope Sanish And Elm Tree -- New Wells Are Just Starting To Report -- Older Wells Are Coming Back On Line -- Monday, April 21, 205

Locator: 48416HARMS.

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors.

Updates

Production for all "Harms" wells has been updated "below the fold." It's too early to tell if there will be much of a halo effect but the new wells reporting are setting records.

Be very careful going through the data. Many of the NDIC file numbers are very similar and many wells have had name changes since the original permits.

The "Harms" wells that were off line are just now being reported that they are coming back on line. The following "Harms" wells have just started reporting production or have changed status:

The wells:

  • 38939, F/A, Harms West Federal 3-32HSL1, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 14K 2/25; 12K over 17 days extrapolates to 21K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025171204912100881018420143734047
BAKKEN1-202541916170079415441213331
  • 38940, F/A, Harms West Federal 4-32H, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 40K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20252839263386343028143777406482213
BAKKEN1-202512582580000
  • 39316, F/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 1-33H, Antelope,  t2/25; cum 49K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH2-2025284095640776346254102039268194
SANISH1-2025885328464105391090810170226
  • 39840, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 5-32H2, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 2K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202571559153435041725142378
BAKKEN1-20250000000
  •  39841, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 6-32H, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 5K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025652555171243846554233231
BAKKEN1-20250000000
  •  39842, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 11-32H1, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 4K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025535093453211437373394185
BAKKEN1-20250000000
  •  39843, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 8-32H, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 26K 2/25; 26K over 8 days extrapolates to 96K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025825555251461416726996253521380
BAKKEN1-20250000000
  •  39844, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 9-32H1, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 13K 2/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2025813186129751216828092263911437
BAKKEN1-20250000000
  •  40047, loc/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 2-33H2, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 279K 2/25;
SANISH5-2024283076930708216912524424698546
SANISH4-2024253474834764239443388833642246
SANISH3-2024304543845488364465830757352955
SANISH2-20241621606214781714725422237081714
  •  40048, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 3-33H, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 305K 2/25;
SANISH4-2024304656346580213914751847173345
SANISH3-20242757874580142871868592674681124
SANISH2-20241640580403402039146534433973137
  •  40049, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 4-33H1, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 320K 2/25; 43K over 16 days extrapolates to 79K over 30 days:
SANISH4-2024305370053696299558367983069610
SANISH3-20242653235533953266669890687451145
SANISH2-20241642639423872422147475442743201
  •  40050, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 5-33H, Antelope, t--; cum 278K 2/25;
SANISH4-2024304666846677271368250081898602
SANISH3-20242654251543963160867601664931108
SANISH2-20241740278400402286550262468733389

 40051, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 6-33H2, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 232K 2/25;

SANISH4-2024302745827463262073114430918226
SANISH3-2024273135131425247893922838585643
SANISH2-20241721678215501821724473228231650

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Original Post

Locator: 10010HARMS.

Current Map
September 27, 2024

Earlier Maps
February 13, 2024





Updates

August 19, 2024: production updated; huge wells;

August 18, 2022: completion and production update here.

Original Post

The wells:

  • 22817, IA/439, CLR, Harms 2-32H, Elm Tree, t8/13; cum 430K 6/21; cum 475K 5/22; cum 537K 12/23; cum 553K 6/24; off line, cum 555K 7/24;
  • 22818, IA/706, CLR, Harms 1-32H, Elm Tree, t12/13; cum 379K 6/21; cum 410K 5/22; cum 450K 12/23; cum 460K 6/24; off line, cum 461K 7/24;
  • 37988, conf-->loc/A, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope, huge well, first production, 6/21, t--; cum 454K 5/22; FracFocus: 8.5 million gallons fresh water; 84% water by mass; cum 682K 10/23; off line; back on line; cum 717K 6/24; off line but appears to be coming back on line, cum 747K 11/24; off line but appears to be coming back on line, cum 747K 11/24;
  • 37989, loc/A, CLR, Harms Federal 17-33H1, Antelope, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 222K 5/22; FracFocus: 7.4 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass; cum 443K 10/23; off line; back on line; cum 492K 6/24; off line but appears to be coming back on line, cum 525K 11/24;
  • 38939, F/A, Harms West Federal 3-32HSL1, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 14K 2/25;
  • 38940, F/A, Harms West Federal 4-32H, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 40K 2/25;
  • 38941, PNC, Harms West Federal 5-32H2, Elm Tree,
  • 38942, PNC, Harms West Federal 6-32H, Elm Tree,
  • 39316, F/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 1-33H, Antelope,  t2/25; cum 49K 2/25;
  • 39838, PNC, CLR, Harms Federal 7-32H2, Elm Tree,
  • 39839, PNC, CLR, Harms Federal 8-32H, Elm Tree,
  • 39840, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 5-32H2, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 2K 2/25;
  • 39841, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 6-32H, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 5K 2/25;
  • 39842, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 11-32H1, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 4K 2/25;
  • 39843, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 8-32H, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 26K 2/25;
  • 39844, F/A, CLR, Harms West Federal 9-32H1, Elm Tree, t2/25; cum 13K 2/25;
  • 40047, loc/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 2-33H2, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 279K 2/25;
  • 40048, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 3-33H, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 305K 2/25;
  • 40049, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 4-33H1, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 320K 2/25;
  • 40050, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 5-33H, Antelope, t--; cum 278K 2/25;
  • 40051, drl/A, CLR, Harms East Federal 6-33H2, Antelope, s12/23; t--; cum 232K 2/25;

Graphics:


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Miscellaneous

The wells:

  • 22817, 439, CLR, Harms 2-32H, Elm Tree, t8/13; cum 430K 6/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2021916461330146513611091166
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-2021125841283000
BAKKEN2-20211926022904170322811750323
BAKKEN1-202131570757423767591039821525
BAKKEN12-20203161576240439763185185714
BAKKEN11-20203064506372511253904035950
BAKKEN10-2020191453135811171341763472
BAKKEN9-20202680969910598411100
BAKKEN8-202024314832971548280726350
BAKKEN7-2020002290000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202021315726452070485722742364
BAKKEN3-202030426446323547493518502713

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Monday, April 21, 2025

Locator: 44855B.

Hegseth leaks: 

  • politics:
    • anti-Trumpers: huge leak; huge story; Hegseth needs to be fired
    • Trumpers: a non-story
  • they can both be right
    • Old Guard: definitions have not changed; rules have not changed (except when it comes to Hillary)
    • New Guard: their own definition of what's classified and how it's handled; New Guard has moved on -- into the 21st century of AI, and the speed of light. 
  • as long as Hegseth has Trump's back, this is -- as Trump says -- a non-story

Biggest security leak: recent comments by President Trump re: Israel's plans to strike Iran. Now that was incredible! That was a serious security breach.

Politics: their own base has lost faith in their party. 

Dems at all-time low in polling. Of course, there are so many polls out there, who really knows? Whatever.
The most important thing: Hakeem Jeffries is channeling Barack Obama. Next thing we'll hear: there are questions about Jeffries' birth certificate. LOL. The newest face of the Dems: 25-year-old activist David Hogg who is now able to write $100,000 checks to support his candidates. He's slightly left of Hillary. The average SAT score to get into Harvard: 1550. Hogg's SAT: 1270. Well below the cut-off for a Harvard admission. Hogg graduated from Harvard in 2023; matriculated in 2019.

Biggest news story that still has me thinking: TSM's activity in Phoenix. Latest update.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.12.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, April 22, 2025: 79 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 286 for the year,
    • 41149, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5B,
    • 39761, conf, Grayson Mill, Orville 4-9 6H,
  • Monday, April 21, 2025: 77 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 284 for the year,
    • 40442, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Tucson 158-94-26-35-5MBH,
  • Sunday, April 20, 2025: 76 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 283 for the year,
    • 40667, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 6HR,
    • 38680, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-1H,
  • Saturday, April 19, 2025: 74 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 281 for the year,
    • 41174, conf, CLR, Helen 4-8H,

RBN Energy: after Permian M&A spree, E&Ps throttle growth while integrateds motor on.

The record $120 billion upstream M&A spending spree in 2024 focused on the consolidation of Permian Basin positions by the major U.S. publicly traded oil and gas companies. With crude oil prices stagnant in the $70-$80/bbl range, producers were driven to boost Tier 1 acreage and capture operational synergies to fund the generous shareholder returns demanded by their investor base. When the dust cleared at year-end, the larger E&Ps we track — plus supermajor ExxonMobil — closed or announced deals on acreage that generated about 1.5 MMboe/d of production, almost 25% of their 2023 Permian output. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll analyze what this unprecedented consolidation means for Permian production going forward. 


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Pope Francis Died Overnight — The Day After Easter Sunday — 2025

Around 7:30 a.m. local time in Rome.

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