Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #2 -- December 31, 2017; Some OIl Utility In Maine Is Making A Lot Of Money This Winter

This was posted a year ago based on an incredibly prescient comment from a reader:

December 15, 2016:  This comment came in today. I will have to follow this story next winter, 2017 - 2018.

As per ISO Express, oil is now providing 3% New England electricity, up from near zero for the past many months.

Coal, now providing 15%, was also near zero two weeks ago.

At today's 2,000 Mwh from coal, the looming shutdown this spring of the 1,500 Mw capacity coal burner in Brayton Point could wreck havoc next winter if/when cold occurs. 

Came in as a comment at this post: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/12/us-natural-gas-stocks-december-15-2016.html.

I don't know about "you" but I find this absolutely incredible that a reader spotted this a year ago, and actually said this:

At today's 2,000 Mwh from coal, the looming shutdown this spring of the 1,500 Mw capacity coal burner in Brayton Point could wreck havoc next winter if/when cold occurs.  -- December 15, 2016

Wow, what can I say? I doubt anyone can top that as far as a prognostication goes. And that is what makes it so much fun to blog. I learn a lot from my readers.

Oil, very expensive oil, is now providing upwards of 30% of the electricity in New England. Note again: last year, oil was providing 3% New England electricity, up from near zero for the past many months. 

It may be instructive to read this post again: 

The one thing not mentioned in the Forbes article is the oil burning plant in Maine that is benefiting from the lack of natural gas pipelines coming into New England.
That earlier line that "an overall concern for the environment and safety" rings very, very hollow. Something tells me it has nothing to do with an overall concern for the environment and safety but rather politics and money, with CAVE dwellers being co-opted for someone else's goals. Just saying. 

Something tells me there is a oil utility in Maine that is making a lot of money for its investors this winter. 

Disclaimer: just an opinion advanced by at least one reader.

The Market And Energy Page, T+209 -- August 17, 2017

More smoke and mirrors coming out of the Mideast: from ArgusMedia --  "Iraq output drop likely reflects methodology shift."

Iraqi field-level production data appears to show it has deepened crude output cuts, but methodology changes are the more likely explanation. And data from international oil firms show output from the semiautonomous Kurdistan region to be much higher than the federal government's estimate.

Baghdad is facing pressure to improve its compliance with the production deal struck between Opec and several non-Opec countries. Argus estimates Iraqi output has been 4.45mn b/d so far this year, making it just over 50pc compliant, compared with Opec's overall 101pc compliance rate. Iraq agreed to cut output by 210,000 b/d from an October 2016 baseline figure determined by secondary sources, including Argus, to 4.35mn b/d until March next year. Production data from the federal government in Baghdad put output at 4.54mn b/d this year.

Iraq's low compliance led to an appearance before a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting earlier this month to discuss its future production plans. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid al-Falih made comments after a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Jabbar al-Luaibi on 8 August that could be interpreted as a public hint that Iraq needs to improve its compliance.

Iraq's production published two days later in Opec's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed output at 4.4mn b/d in July, down by 150,000 b/d from June. A regional breakdown for July, provided by the oil ministry, shows a decline of 374,000 b/d when compared with the previously-published breakdown for September 2016, before the Opec agreement. The biggest fall comes from state-owned North Oil, (NOC) followed by the Kurdistan region (see table).

An explanation for the large drop from NOC could be a methodology change. The ministry's September figure for NOC included production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome, in Kirkuk, even though these fields were taken over by the KRG in 2014 to prevent them falling to Islamist group Isis. Production from the two fields totalled 275,000 b/d in September last year.

Data from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) placed the region's output at just over 560,000 b/d for the same month in 2016, similar to the federal government's estimate but including production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome.

Wisconsin refinery: small Calumet Specialty refinery to be bought by Husky Energy for $435 million. 

Husky produces primarily heavy oil from oil sands and conventional operations in western Canada and the deal will help it manage exposure to depressed global crude prices, which are hovering below $50 a barrel on concerns about a persistent supply glut CLc1. 

Husky said it would retain about 180 workers at the refinery, which can process Canadian heavy crude and light and medium barrels from Canada and the Bakken region, and also boosts the company's asphalt production capacity.

Alibaba. Huge beat.

Wal-Mart: slight beat. Market down 2%. $1.08 vs $1.07 forecast. 

Shenanigans -- Oil Numbers -- May 3, 2017

Earlier this morning I posted this:

The big question is: how did the crude oil market react to the news that there was a paltry drawdown in US crude oil storage this week? The price of WTI dropped below $48 yesterday. Traders are obviously seeing the same problem.

The bigger question is: when did traders get this information? Based on the time of the price move, it is clear to me that "inside" traders got this information yesterday; the rest of us got it today. The big move in WTI pricing was yesterday. Today, the price of WTI moved just one cent -- WTI is down $0.01 today (at this moment -- May 3, 2017; 12:35 p.m. CDT). Just saying.

The point is this: this morning I suggested that "inside" traders knew yesterday that the drawdown in US crude oil supplies that wold be reported today. Today we see further proof -- from Twitter:

Yesterday afternoon, "inside" traders got the news. The "official" report was embargoed until today for the rest of us. 

Finally -- The Experts "See Through" OPEC -- "Disingenuous" Says One Analyst -- FT -- May 3, 2017

We saw this some time ago. It was represented in the graph at this post and the update at this post. The Financial Times is reporting:

As oil prices languish near $50 a barrel, energy traders are starting to point the finger at one previously overlooked culprit: exports. 

For all Opec’s self-imposed production restraint the group’s exports have fallen by less than their output cuts might imply. Morgan Stanley analysts say that while Opec has hit its target by cutting as much as 1.4m barrels a day of output to try and support the market, shipping data suggests the group’s exports have declined by less than 1m b/d since the start of the year.

Consultancy Energy Aspects echo this view, arguing the discrepancy between the group’s production and exports risked being seen as “disingenuous” by a market that has been rapidly “losing faith” in the group.

Analysts at Energy Aspects say tanker tracking data suggests Opec’s exports have fallen by as little as 800,000 b/d so far in 2017 as some members have supplanted oil lost to production cutbacks with crude from storage, or have freed up barrels for export as they carry out maintenance at domestic refineries. 

One thing not mentioned in the article: the only ones who really know how much Saudi Arabia is producing is Saudi Arabia itself. So we have two problems:

• trusting Saudi Arabia's numbers (and the rest of OPEC's numbers)
• the oil coming out of storage

Saudi Arabia is in a fight for its life. Does one think they would change their ways now?

As is it: 200 days until US crude oil is "re-balanced."