Friday, December 6, 2019

Off The Net For Awhile -- December 6, 2019

How about them Dallas Cowboys last night? They lose another one. Truly unbelievable.

Off the net for awhile. How much work is left in the Bakken? The short answer: a lot.

WTI: $58.84.


While posting the Bakken graphic, this video popped up in the background. I wasn't watching the video channel, simply listening to it in the background.

I thought it was Elvis and was ready to "delete" it -- I don't care for Elvis ... and then it turned out to be one of my favorites -- completely missed it ... and I should have known. LOL.

It's Only Make Believe, Conway Twitty

Not Sure What To Say -- December 6, 2019


December 7, 2019: of course, I did not know any of this. See comments --
Merkel is rom East Berlin.
"In 1968, Merkel joined the Free German Youth (FDJ), the official communist youth movement sponsored by the ruling Marxist–Leninist Socialist Unity Party of Germany.Membership was nominally voluntary, but those who did not join found it difficult to gain admission to higher education."
Born in Hamburg, family moved to E Berlin when Father took a pastorate in Lutheran church there.
I don't think she shares the same view of the Holocaust as most folks in the West do.
Original Post
This tells me all I need to know about Merkel:

Holy Mackerel -- Wow, I Would Love To See Steve Lieman's Face When He Reports This; Payrolls Surge; Well Ahead Of Projections; Unemployment Rate Actually Ticks Down -- December 6, 2019

From The WSJ:

Holy mackerel: this is really, really incredible. I assume the mainstream media is still giving Obama the credit for the economy. 

Jobs, link here, November jobs:
  • nonfarm payrolls
    • prior: 128,000
    • consensus forecast: 180,000
    • actual: 266,000
  • private payrolls:
    • prior: 131,000
    • consensus forecast: 168,000
    • actual: 254,000
  • unemployment rate:
    • prior: 3.6%
    • consensus forecast: 3.6%
    • actual:3.5%
  • manufacturing payrolls:
    • prior: -36,000
    • consensus forecast: 15,000
    • actual: 54,000
Recession is just around the corner

Futures: unchanged, down if anything.


CNN: "Stocks pop on good jobs report." In fact, the Dow opening was a bit lower than the Dow futures just before and after the jobs report came out. And it was not a "good" report. It was a spectacular report.

Headwinds: every story, it seems, says the job market was incredible despite the headwinds. Exactly what headwinds? The only headwinds I know:
  • TDS
  • consistent and never-ending negativity from mainstream business media 
Example? This article from "The Rachel Maddow Show" -- MSNBC: the writer shows that job growth slowed under Trump compared to job growth under Obama. This is so predictable. I googled: MSNBC job report today. Screenshot:

  • easy money;
  • everyone is employed -- employed folks pay taxes and buy more stuff;
  • US House not passing any more regulations;
  • US is energy independent -- this is huge and is not being reported;
  • gasoline is below $2.00 / gallon here in north Texas; people have more money to buy other stuff;
What's the best way to put another nail in a solution looking for a  problem? Gasoline below $2.00 / gallon. EVs were a solution to a problem that did not exist.

This morning:

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 6, 2019


Amy Klobuchar: quietly gaining momentum (the link has been corrected) -- The Chicago Tribune, and Sophia saw a unicorn in the wild yesterday.

Baby names: By the way, for 2019, top baby girl names, #1, Sophia; #2, Olivia; #13, Charlotte. The Today Show list varies from what is being posted elsewhere. Elsewhere, Muhammed makes the top ten list for baby boy names; Muhammed doesn't show up on The Today Show list. Why does that not surprise me? Even reporting baby names has become "fake news." The Sun has the real list.

"You're too old to vote." -- Joe Biden; yesterday's town hall meeting; and that's no malarkey. His "deplorables" moment? Nope, media will ignore it. TDS.

Hillary: recalculating ... recalculating ... recalculating.

Bloomberg: $30 million later --- 6%; won't be on debate stage

Steyer: $50 million later -- 0%; will be on debate stage; spent $50 million in less than 3 months -- LA Times.

Futures: another good day for the market? Indices trending green. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Jobs, link here, November jobs:
  • nonfarm payrolls:
    • prior: 128,000
    • consensus forecast: 180,000
    • actual: 266,000
  • unemployment rate:
    • prior: 3.6%
    • consensus forecast: 3.6%
    • actual:3.5%
  • manufacturing payrolls:
    • prior: -36,000
    • consensus forecast: 15,000
    • actual: 54,000
Factory orders rebound in October -- multiple sources. From US News -- recession is just around the corner --
New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded in October after two straight monthly declines, lifted by rising demand for machinery and transportation equipment, but gains were likely to be limited amid persistently weak business confidence.
Factory goods orders increased 0.3% also as bookings for computers and electronic products rose, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Data for September was revised down to show orders dropping 0.8% instead of falling 0.6% was previously reported. October's gain in factory orders was in line with economists' expectations.
Canadian banks: Canadian banks shed staff as troubles grow for indebted consumers .... well, what would one expect in a country closed for business? Over at Financial Times -- and if you can't trust the Financial Times, who can you trust? Behind a paywall, but I will post a bit from the story later.


Confused: there are two memes out there --
  • oil is dead;
  • long live oil
I don't get it (well, actually I do, but ...). The media narrative is that "oil is dead" and yet the data suggests otherwise. The mainstream business media seems to be all agog over Saudi Arabian oil but non-business media seem to suggest oil is dead, notwithstanding that global demand for crude oil is at all time highs. Whatever. And get this ... WTI is trending toward $60. If US oil can't make money on $55-oil, maybe they can on $60 oil ...

More proof of confused narrative? Reuters -- Norway ramps up western Europe's largest oilfield as oil's future questioned. Can you say, "Johan Sverdrup"? Obviously I can't. I've been calling it the "John Sverdrup" oil field all this time; even my link at the sidebar at the right is incorrect. I track the oil field here.

EVs: the fad seems to be waning. Interest in China dropped off a cliff after government ended subsidies; video  of long line of Teslas waiting to charge  at California charging station went viral this past week; companies no longer reporting EV sales on a monthly basis; at best we will get quarterly data; 

Headlines on same page over at Rigzone:
EPD: a blue chip among MLPs. MoneyShow. "Ad" disguised as a news story. Ignore.

Kinder Morgan: plans to spend $2.4 billion on expansion projects and joint ventures in 2020;
  • headline says it all; not much more to the story
  • backlog: $4.1 billion in capital projects 
  • CAPEX: plans to spend upwards of $3 billion each year on organic investment opportunities
  • previously posted: will sell its Canadian subsidiary to Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp for $2.5 billion by 1H20
  • completed the $3.46 billion sale of the Trans Mountain assets and expansion project to the Canadian government in 3Q18
XOM: days as dog of the Dow are over -- Bank of America; some analysts think XOM could do well in 2020 based on Permian projections. Link.

Shale investing: a lot of misstatements (outright lies?) but the article does provide a nice update for those looking to invest in shale operators.
These five companies had breakeven prices lower than $26 per barrel at lateral lengths of 7,560 to 10,500:
  • EOG Resources
  • Pioneer Natural Resources
  • Concho Resources
  • Exxon Mobil unit XTO Energy
  • Chevron
This writer doesn't understand Saudi Arabia or Saudi Aramco or the IPO either.

What Condition Is My Condition In?

The Book Page

From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.

I checked this book out at the library two weeks ago; finished it; loved it. Returned the book to the library and then bought my own copy through Amazon. Re-reading it again; reading it slowly.

We all know the story of Charlemagne, 8th century Europe. For me, I was never aware what drove his desire to expand his empire. Either that was not taught when I was studying world history in middle school (?) or I completely missed it.

It was all about religion, Christianity to be specific:
  • converting the barbarians/heathens of the north and northeast to Christianity; and,
  • pushing the Muslims out of Europe, particularly the Iberian peninsula
I always thought his expansion was secular in nature. Not at all.

I was curious which Roman Catholic "sect" was most prominent at this time. I knew all of this at one time, but had forgotten. During my USAF tour of England some years ago, mostly Yorkshire, I visited any number of monastery ruins, got the t-shirt and the books, and learned as much as I could, much of which I have now forgotten. A quick google/wiki search suggests it was the Benedictines during the Charlemagne/Frankish rule.

By the way, that's where I first "met" St Bede. His works provided me a number of passwords at the time -- which I no longer use.

Looks Like All Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today Will Be DUCs -- December 6, 2019

It appears if the IPs for the wells coming off the confidential list -- if reported at all today -- will be reported later this afternoon. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5563533864

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, December 6, 2019: 19 for the month; 224 for the quarter:
  • 35916, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 32415, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 9-33H, Banks, no production data,
  • 30597, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 4-4H, Bully, no production data, 
RBN Energy: regulations spark a bevy of U.S. renewable diesel projects.
Production of alternative, non-petroleum-based fuel continues to be a hot topic around the globe as government policies have incentivized or even mandated these products with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the U.S., we’ve seen waves of ethanol and biodiesel enter the fuel supply chain, but the latest commodity that has piqued industry interest is renewable diesel, whose chemical characteristics make it a particularly desirable replacement for conventional distillate. Today, we provide an overview of the renewable diesel market, the legislative programs in North America that are incentivizing its production, and the projects currently on the books to produce it.
Renewable diesel is similar to biodiesel in that it can be produced from lipids — typically vegetable oil, waste cooking oil, animal fats, etc. However, the production processes for the two fuels are different, leading to important differences in their chemical structures. Renewable diesel is most commonly produced through hydrotreating the feedstock, while biodiesel is produced through transesterification, a process that turns the lipids into fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) — and a great word to remember for Scrabble. We won’t bog you down with a complex description of those two processes, but the important thing to remember is that each of the resulting fuels has distinct properties that allow them to be blended differently with petroleum-based diesel. Biodiesel is subjected to lower blending limits (typically 5-20%; lower in colder climates) due to its cold-flow properties — i.e., its flow behavior at low temperatures — that can lead to plugging, or restricted flows, in vehicle fuel systems. By contrast, renewable diesel is chemically similar to petroleum-based diesel and can therefore be used as a direct “drop-in” substitute that is not subject to similar blending limits.