Friday, June 16, 2017

Job Initiative in ND Picked Up By PennEnergy -- June 16, 2017

Link here.

Active RIgs Up To 57 -- June 16, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs572878187185

One new permit:
  • Operator: Liberty Resources
  • Field: East Tioga (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Seventeen permits renewed:
  • Hess (6): six EN-Kulczyk permits, all in Mountrail County
  • HRC (3): three Fort Berthold permits, Dunn County
  • Zavanna (2): two Rover permits, Williams County
  • Crescent Point Energy (2): an Aldag permit and a Paopao permit, Williams County
  • Texakota (2): two H. Borstad permits, Williams County
  • MRO: one Ross permit, Dunn County
  • Resource Energy CAN-AM: one Bervik permit, Divide County30722
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30686, 839, XTO, Rink 12X-4D, Garden, t5/17; cum 86K 12/17; (#21786, IAW, off-line; as of 12/17, back on line)
  • 30721, 708, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32AXB, Tobacco Garden, t5/17; cum 71K 12/17; (#21647; jump in production, 10/17)
  • 30722, 274, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32F, Tobacco Garden, t5/17; cum 47K 12/17;
  • 30723, 368, XTO, Tobacco Garden 24X-32B, Tobacco Garden, t5/17; cum 70K 12/17;
  • 31625, 495, XTO, Ames Federal 31X-13FXG, Grinnell, t5/17; cum -61K 12/17;  (#20582; API, 33-105-02163; huge jump in production; re-fracked: FracFocus - nothing; sundry form received March 14, 2016, suggests this well was re-fracked )
  • 31626, 381, XTO, Ames Federal 31X-13BXC, Grinnell, t5/17; cum 70K 12/17;
  • 32626, 590, BR, Blegen Ranch 3D TFH-ULW, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 147K 12/17; (#24127 -- off-line; 17388, back on-line, not remarkable)

The Political Page, T+147 -- June 16, 2017. Trump, 50% Approval Rating; Obama (Same Point In Presidency), 43% Approval Rating

At same point in his presidency, Barack Obama's approval rating: 43%.

The Literature Page, I Guess

I mentioned Chuck Klosterman about one year ago in the blog.

Today, a reader sent me a link about Klosterman who will be speaking at the Dallas Museum of Art of June 20.
Klosterman is undoubtedly a culture writer who matters, who is read widely, who breaks down the walls of elitism, or at least perceived elitism, that confine many critics. He's a populist intellectual, and that can rub less populist intellectuals the wrong way. In short, he sells books, and he churns them out fast — eight nonfiction collections and two novels since his 2001 debut, Fargo Rock City.

How did he get here? Klosterman grew up on a farm in Wyndmere, N.D. There were 500 people in his hometown, and 80 in his high school; when Klosterman says he was on the basketball, football and track teams, he's quick to qualify the achievement. Competition was scarce. He became a sports fanatic early in life. He's holding a ball of some sort in all of his childhood photos. He had a poster of his hero, Roger Staubach, on his bedroom wall, and he cried when Dwight Clark's touchdown catch lifted the 49ers over the Cowboys in the 1981 NFC Championship Game.
Sports were a welcome antidote to the isolation of small-town farm life. So was music, particularly heavy metal. But Klosterman wasn't just listening to Kiss and Guns N' Roses; he was also thinking about them. If sports competition was scarce, so was fringe music. "To me the most interesting band I experienced growing up was Guns 'N Roses," he says. "There was no counter-culture where I was."

Wow, this morning when I noted it was June 16th, it "bugged" me that the date "meant" something, but for the life of me I couldn't remember what.

Then, on a different laptop I happened to be using, a calendar reminder popped up: June 16th is Bloomsday.

Many, many years ago I went through my James Joyce phase but have pretty much moved on. Perhaps some day I will tackle Ulysses again. 

The Market And Energy Page, T+147 -- June 16, 2017

Grocery: For the archives -- Amazon announcing it will buy Whole Foods. I am excited about this on so many levels.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.  

Disclaimer: I own no shares in Amazon or any company directly impacted by this announcement. I am a spectator and that's all. I love the deal because this may signal the beginning of E-Commerce 3.0.

Disclaimer: I am an Amazon Prime member. 

When Amazon began selling books, that was the beginning of E-Commerce 1.0.

When Amazon become mainstream, and introduced Amazon Prime, that was the advent of E-Commerce 2.0. If that's a stretch, then certainly when Wal-Mart began its on-line operations, we were into E-Commerce 2.0.

Amazon entering the on-line grocery business, this suggests to me we are now seeing the beginning of E-Commerce 3.0.

I've been disappointed that retailers, including Wal-Mart, have not been able to figure out e-commerce better than Amazon, and even worse, have not been able to figure out e-commerce grocery. This should light the fire under a lot of retailers -- they better get their e-commerce figured out fast.

The next target: drugstores? I think the vast majority of buyers of pharmaceuticals are seniors. This group, as much as millennials, would like home delivery.

Another target: fast-foods? Panda Express? Burger chain? Taco chain? I believe I heard Jim Cramer say that one of Uber's biggest businesses is UberEATS.

How The Nuclear Meltdown Will Help US Natural Gas Producers -- June 16, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs562878187185

RBN Energy: how the nuclear meltdown will help US natural gas producers.
The U.S. nuclear power sector is facing its biggest crisis in years, with an increasing number of nuclear units being retired for economic reasons and the four new units now under construction in the Southeast facing possible cancellation. Bad news for the nuclear sector is good news for owners and developers of natural gas-fired power plants — and, of course, for natural gas producers — because gas plants are a primary alternative to nuclear in providing reliable, around-the-clock power. Gas plants also are a go-to choice for supporting intermittently available renewable sources like wind and solar. Today we review the woes facing the nuclear sector, efforts by some states to prop it up with subsidies, and the strong economic/environmental case for ramping up gas-fired generation.
If you add up the five nuclear units that have been retired in the past five years, the six slated for retirement by 2025 and the 12 others whose fate hangs in the balance, you’re talking 23,000 MW of nuclear capacity that would need to be replaced to a significant degree by gas-fired units. A 1,200-MW combined-cycle plant operating only 70% of the time consumes about 175 MMcf/d of natural gas; at that rate, 19 of those plants (for a total of 22,800 MW) would consume more than 3 Bcf/d ­­— not a gas-market game changer, by any means, given that U.S. gas production tops 72 Bcf/d, but another boost in demand for gas producers, especially in the Marcellus and Utica plays, which are closest to where most of the retirements have been taking place.
Even without the latest round of possible nuclear-unit retirements, about 15,000 MW of new gas-fired generating capacity is expected to come online in the PJM region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois) alone over the next 36 months (consuming approximately 2 Bcf/d when they’re all up and running), and that’s on top of the more than 8,000 MW added there in the past two years.

Maybe A Reader Knows If This Well Was Re-Fracked -- June 16, 2017


June 16, 2017: see first comment. This was a Three Forks well apparently, not a middle Bakken well, (drilled very, very early before operators were necessarily distinguishing between middle Bakken and the upper bench of the Three Forks). Most perplexing, however, is the jump in production that clearly suggests this well was refracked but no evidence that it was.

Original Post 

I track CLR Hendrickson wells here.

The CLR Hendrickson wells are now coming back on line after most recent fracking in the area.

Note this well:
  • 18224, 1,099, CLR, Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 557K 4/17; remains off-line as of 2/17 as more Hendrickson wells are completed; came back on-line 4/17; huge jump in production; FracFocus -- no evidence of re-frac; no sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked but the huge jump in production suggests that it must have been re-fracked
Monthly production for past year:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Huge Correction -- BR -- #30324, #30326 -- Old Hickory -- June 16, 2017

This doesn't happen often -- or at least I don't think it happens often.

Back on March 12, 2017, NDIC scout tickets reported two BR Old Hickory wells that each produced in excess of 80,000 bbls of crude oil in one month. That appears to have been an error: scout tickets for both wells now show that the actual production that month was in the 20,000-bbl range, much more consistent with wells in that area.

Break-Even Costs For New Wells -- Texas Survey -- June 16, 2017

Via Twitter:

Williams County Public School District 8 -- Groundbreaking For New Middle School -- June 16, 2017

Data points at The Williston Herald:
  • Missouri Ridge Middle School
  • will replace Stony Creek Middle School
  • $17.1 million
  • construction has begun; hope to have building enclosed before winter
  • hopefully complete for 2018-2019 school year
  • capacity: 150 students; grades 6, 7, 8
  • expansion possible; up to max of 450 students
  • core: library, gymnasium, cafeteria, lab will be designed to accommodate 450 students
  • will be funded from the district's building fund; won't require any tax increase

A New Nominee For The 2017 Geico Rock Award -- June 16, 2017

Oil guru who foresaw the market rout in 2014 says OPEC should have cut deeper in 2016 -- Bloomberg. Well, duh. I think everyone thinks that now. Whether or not it would have worked is another question. In the US alone there was just too much in storage and shale producers were yet to ramp up in light of OPEC announced cuts. From Bloomberg:
“They should have cut another million barrels a day for ninety days in order to drain the system,” said Gary Ross, global head of oil at PIRA Energy, a forecasting and analytics unit of S&P Global Platts.
For Ross, the producers missed an opportunity to deepen cuts between June and August when refinery demand is higher and so accelerate the decline in inventories. Such a move would have pushed the market into backwardation, when near-term prices are higher than those for later months. That structure favors OPEC because it would discourage their shale-oil rivals from locking in prices for future production.

Ross’s view was echoed by analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd., who said OPEC needs to cut deeper for longer to restore inventories to normal levels. “OPEC needs to drain by 34 million barrels a month or 1 million barrels a day for the next 10 months,” the analysts wrote in a note. “This looks challenging.”
Ross also warned that Chinese crude-demand growth is set to decrease in the second half of this year. “That poses a real problem for OPEC as they enter 2018,” he said.