Friday, October 22, 2021

I'm Just An Old Chunk Of Coal -- October 22, 2021

Norm Macdonald, October 17, 1959 - September 14, 2021.

Doing Just Fine, Thank You -- Going Into The Weekend -- October 22, 2021

WTI: up $1.30 going into the weekend. Trading at $83.80.

Biden: gasoline prices won't be going down anytime soon. High prices are here into 2022 -- then, of course, comes the driving season. Link here to Irina Slav

When I see headlines and one-liners like this I know exactly how this evolved. At his daily briefing by his staff, Resident Biden was told exactly that and that's what he passed on to the rest of us. I assume Resident Biden comes away with twelve one-liners / twelve single soundbites that he can remember about the US economy and global geopolitics on any given day. 

High prices: I use the phrase "high prices" loosely and only in line with the meme. In fact, I don't see $80-oil all that expensive and if one looks at historical prices adjusted for inflation $80-oil is definitely not out of line. 

US equity markets:

  • both the Dow and the S&P 500 hit intra-day all time highs. Again.
  • all sectors up this week except communications
  • best sectors this week: real estate and financials

Let's Go, Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2914617154

No new permits.

Is It Too Early To Start The Weekend? October 22, 2021

Jerry Jeff Walker died one year ago

Todd Snider tribute here. Two hours, five minutes long -- extemporaneous -- done on "the spur of the moment," late evening, around midnight (?), a year ago, the day Jerry Jeff Walker died.

Key West:

When Jerry Jeff Walker decided that Austin, Texas, was where Jerry Jeff Walker was from, he left behind this thing he was doing in Key West.

In Key West, a little bit after midnight, everyone starts telling you they know Jimmy Buffett, but a little after 3:00 a.m. they will tell you they know Jerry Jeff Walker.

Jerry Jeff Walker had gone down there  ... his best friend at the time, Jimmy Buffett who was then dropped ... or just burned out .. JJW sent JB down to Key West and the rest is history.

JJW drove JB to Key West in an old Packard.

I've never been to Key West but it holds for me quite a fascination: Jimmy Buffett, Ernest Hemingway, Donald Trump (up the coast), and then the above. 

The tribute to Townes Van Zandt "connects" a lot of these folks, like Guy Clark, Susan Clark, Willie Nelson, Emmylou Harris, Nancy Griffith. When one looks at the map of Key West it reminds me of Provincetown, MA, and to some extent, San Pedro, CA. In all three cases, they are all destinations; one does not drive "through" any of them. When you reach any of the three, you've come to the end of the line.


The market: if it weren't for a few stories like SNAP and INTC, this market would be flying high today. Watching the crawler is incredible.

Apple: Amazon has already lowered the price of one of Apple's brand new MacBook Pros. Amazon is selling the $1,999-14"-MacBook Pro for $1,945. Expercom has a similar sale, but Amazon has a bigger reach. Amazing.

Quarter moon in a ten-cent town. Painting for the EmmyLou Harris album is by Susanna Clark. She also did the cover for Willie Nelson's Stardust album. Dies at age 73, July 5, 2012.

Anti-vaxxer poster favorite sons: baton passed from Utah to Boston

Speaking of Boston, need a song: the story takes place in San Francisco but for me it's my "Boston story":

Taxi, Harry Chapin

Notes From All Over -- The Dead Lift Edition -- October 22, 2021

Phunware: connected with Trump's SPAC. Up 1,000% before pulling back today.

DWAC: up to $103 now from $10 last night after multiple trading stops today. 

Ticker in the news, one to watch: ME (23andme).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

My favorite stockbroker, lol: Carl. The anti-Schwab broker.

Spanish phrase for the day: esta maƱana ("this morning") -- that's how our middle school principal opened his note to update parents and families on the lock down situation at the school earlier today.  All students are safe; the "event" is over; suspects in custody; students and teachers did not miss a beat. Local Texas law enforcement generally does not give lawbreakers "space" as they do in Baltimore.

First things first: US world strongman champion -- a Williston native

  • Andy Njos (pronounced "ness")
  • 82.5 kg weight class: record -- lifted a total of 900 pounds
  • connects with Rich Vestal (a legend in his own time, by the way) at Red River Supply
  • then to Buck Scheele (another legend in his own time), at WISCO
  • from there, established his own crane company (lifting weights)
  • Dacotah West Crane Service: 25 employees; seven cranes; as many as nine at one time;
  • took leave from his company having qualified for the World Strongman event
  • prior to all this: a severe motorcycle accident -- 45 days in ICU at Mayo in Rochester, MN
  • eleven surgeries then, and since then, an additional three surgeries
  • one knee replacement, using a cadaver knee, did not take
  • total rehab period: more than three years
  • more surgery; more plates (probably has difficulty getting through airport security)
  • his 900-pound lift was fifteen pounds of the national record, 915 pounds
  • this was Andy's first world appearance; only involved in weight lifting since 2019;

Now, Back to the More Mundane

Holy mackerel. I was gone all morning --- starting / continuing a special project for Sophia. 

I just turned on the television. First thing I see on the CNBC crawler -- UNP ups $7.67 per share; up 3.34%. Are you kidding me? I might come back to this one. 

As readers know, in my blue chip portfolio, my favorite stock holding is SRE, my second, which I have not publicly stated before is UNP. Whoo-hoo.

I've accumulated so much UNP over the years I can retire a fourth time. LOL. 

Seriously, what's going on here? I think I know. It will be mentioned in today's commentary if I ever get around to it.

Other news while I was out:

Here is the Jane Wells' interview I mentioned early. This might be the basis for my commentary later today if I ever get around to it. I don't like getting my news from video but in this case, an exception.

Trump SPAC: I don't know if you all heard but but trading in "the Trump SPAC" was stopped for a short while allowing federal congresswomen and US senators a chance to finish their business before taking a break. Link here

Polar vortex: let's go, Brandon.

Porsche. Link here

Spare capacity: this corroborates my thesis that OPEC does not have spare capacity. From Josh Young over on twitter: it's almost list Kuwait doesn't have the spare capacity that they claimed they had. Link here. A thread worth reading.

For All The Naysayers Out There -- And I Was One Of Them -- This Is Truly Stunning -- October 22, 2021

Written by someone else I might have ignored it, but it comes from Yahoo!Finance' anchor, editor-at-large, "Tesla just did something stunning -- analysts." Link here.

Tesla's first quarterly earnings call on Wednesday night without CEO Elon Musk (by his own design) was as boring as watching a Pinto head down a quarter mile track for time.

But Wall Street pros say that the lack of Musk's presence didn't really matter, the more important thing is that Tesla continues to squeeze out more profits from each vehicle it makes.

"Tesla reported particularly strong 3Q21 operating performance, delivering its highest auto gross margins since Model 3 was introduced, despite minimal S+X volume and higher supply chain costs, and impressive GAAP operating margin of 14.6% (18.4% ex-SBC), surpassing even its long-term company targets. We believe this reflects relentless efforts towards vehicle cost reductions, and operational flexibility in a challenging industry environment," said Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner in a research note to clients.

The EV maker's profits topped expectations for the third quarter, powered by record deliveries. Third-quarter deliveries were driven by the more affordable Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. Together, these models comprised over 232,000 of the overall quarterly deliveries. But, quarterly sales came in short of consensus estimates as the top line was somewhat hindered by the semiconductor shortage.

Despite the revenue shortfall, Tesla widened its operating margin to 14.6% in the third quarter, versus 11.0% in the second quarter and 9.2% in the same period last year.

Tesla bulls on the Street quickly regained the narrative on Thursday after the stock initially came under pressure on the revenue miss. The stock rose 3% in afternoon trading in large part because of the impressive margin showing for the company.

Said Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas, "Annualized 3Q EBITDA is approaching $13 billion… getting into GM and Ford territory magnitude, despite a fraction of the revenues. What’s particularly notable is Tesla’s margin performance despite significant cost inflation and a 6% reduction in ASPs [average selling prices] year-over-year." One analyst was so jazzed up by Tesla's margin performance and what it may mean for future profits, they think the stock has the potential to nearly double from current levels around $892.


The Road To New England -- October 22, 2021

Link here.

My condolences to those who were charging their Teslas overnight. 

Williston's City Boundaries Have Expanded Since The 1950s -- October 22, 2021

For seniors like me who grew up in Williston, ND, during the post-war boom years, it is surprising how "big" Williston has grown since then. 

I've labeled seven areas where Williston has grown. If readers want to comment on any of these areas, that would be great. I assume there are a lot of stories. Comments are heavily moderated.

I was most surprised by Williston's expansion into area "7."

Look how far north Williston has expanded, sections 3 and 4.

Other graphics of the area:

Warehouse -- US Economy -- Huge Story -- October 22, 2021

I hope the Jane Wells segment is available later on, on the net. 

My first thought: anyone who was trained to use a forklift as a "side-job" while in the military or some other such entity has a job for life, and a very, very well-paying job. Right now, for a blue collar worker, put this at the top of your resume:

  • CDL
  • fork-lift operator
  • heavy machinery operator

Back to Jane Wells. She has an amazing story.

Jane Wells is always good but today's report is perhaps one of her best. I really enjoy her. She projects that image that she "has a life" but every so often she goes out and about and posts a video story from southern California when the mood strikes her. She's worth her weight in gold.

CLR's Proposed Activity Under The River South-Southeast Of Williston -- October 22, 2021

Note: the graphic below is worth the price of the subscription for this blog. 

Case 29066, November, 2021, hearing dockets. Again, this is a case, not a permit:

  • Case 29066, CLR, Catwalk, Last Chance, and/or Baker-Bakken, i) create an overlapping 1280-acre unit; ten wells; ii) create an overlapping 1920-acre unit; eleven wells; iii) create an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; iv: create an overlapping 3840-acre unit, two wells, Williams and McKenzie

Full abstract:

Application of Continental Resources, Inc. for an order for the Catwalk, Last Chance, and/or Baker-Bakken Pool, Williams and McKenzie Counties, ND, as follows: 

(i) create and establish an overlapping 1280-acre spacing unit comprised of Sections 4 and 5, T.153N., R.100W., authorizing the drilling of a total not to exceed ten horizontal wells on said proposed overlapping 1280-acre spacing unit; 

(ii) create and establish an overlapping 1920-acre spacing unit comprised of Sections 30 and 31, T.154N., R.100W. and Section 6, T.153N., R.100W., authorizing the drilling of a total not to exceed eleven horizontal wells on said proposed overlapping 1920-acre spacing unit; 

(iii) create and establish an overlapping 2560-acre spacing unit comprised of Sections 32 and 33, T.154N., R.100W. and Sections 4 and 5, T.153N., R.100W., authorizing the drilling of two horizontal wells on or near the section line between the existing spacing units of said proposed overlapping 2560-acre spacing unit; and, 

(iv) create and establish two overlapping 3840-acre spacing units comprised of Sections 25 and 36, T.154N., R.101W., Sections 30 and 31, T.154N., R.100W., Section 1, T.153N., R.101W. and Section 6, T.153N., R.100W.; and Sections 29, 30, 31 and 32, T.154N., R.100W. and Sections 5 and 6, T.153N., R.100W., authorizing the drilling of two horizontal wells on or near the section line between the existing spacing units of each proposed overlapping 3840-acre spacing unit, 

and such further relief as appropriate.


TGIF -- But It Sure Is Starting Off Slowly -- October 22, 2021


Later, 8:52 a.m. CT:

  • S&P 500: hits another intra-day high, briefly, dropped back a bit; but overall market flat.
  • tickers of interest
    • AAPL: up slightly;
    • XLNX: down slightly;
    • UNP: up huge -- up $4.00 / share; up almost 2%; trading at 52-week high;
    • BRK-B: I haven't looked at BRK-B in ages but it appears to have bounced back a bit
    • DVN: surprising, up again, up about a percent
    • EOG: interesting; up over 1%
    • ARKK: down a percent;

Original Post

Opening gambit: it seems like Friday, today, is starting off slow, but something suggests that by the end of the day, could be a lot of news. Friday night news dump after 5:30 p.m. CT? I think SLB reports today. See sidebar at right for earnings post. At that site, calendar is linked here. Friday, today, a lot of banks and financial holdings will report. Others of interest to me

  • AMEX, forecast $1.80
  • Cleveland-Cliffs: beats by nine cents;
  • SLB: forecast 36 cents;
    • SLB: revenue misses but sees "favorable conditions"
    • link here;
    • EPS: 36 cents, exactly in line
    • revenue: $5.85 billion vs forecast of $5.94 billion
  • BKR, reported earlier:
    • EPS: huge miss, 16 cents vs 22 cents forecast; the 22-cent EPS would have been an increase of 450% year/year
    • revenue: another miss, $5.09 billion vs $5.35 billion forecast
    • BKR down 10% in pre-market, Friday;

This all goes along with E&P not drilling a whole lot.

Spending bill: that seems to be weighing on the market.

Alec Baldwin: shoots and kills female director, Halyna Hutchins. Baldwin: questioned, released. That was fast. Sh*t happens, apparently. Back to filming. Let's go, Baldwin.

Reuters, others: our economy can handle $100-oil.

Best quip today: "Deep State" missed Chinese missile development and much else, but it knows future climate?

Note: Turkey and Iran are damning the Tigris and Euphrates rivers -- Iraq, say what? How did that happen? LOL. From my Air War College days, three factors affect the geopolitics in the Mideast:

  • water
  • oil
  • the high ground

CNBC's best hour, looks like Jim Cramer has morning off:

  • INTC drops 10%
    • AMD and XLNX continue to surge;
  • all of a sudden, Resident Biden likes the US military; says he could activate "national guard" for trucking;
    • SecTrans on paternity leave, still?
  • all of a sudden, folks are noting Apple's foray into chips; this has been going on since at least 2017;
    • Apple transitioned seamlessly and quietly from a "fashion and entertainment" company to a "chip" company;
  • child vaccines: CNBC optimistic; tea leaves: effort to immunize kids will fall flat;

One Well Coming Off The Confidential List, DWAC Soars -- October 22, 2021

Happy days are here again: Dems back off on corporate tax rate hike. Thank you Sen Sinema, (D) Arizona -- a DINO?

DWAC: $10 --> $50 --> $75 overnight --> $95 pre-market. 

WTI: $83.04

Let's Go, Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2914617154

One well coming off confidential list  -- Friday, October 22, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

  • 38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg

Early production, #38193

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

RBN Energy: Air Products' plan to make hydrogen so blue it's almost green. 

None of us knows with any certainty how big a role hydrogen will ultimately play in helping the U.S. and the rest of the world decarbonize. Sure, some true believers are convinced H2 is the next big thing, but even they must acknowledge the economic and other challenges associated with scaling up the production of “green” or “blue” hydrogen. Do we really want to devote the energy from thousands of wind turbines or many square miles of solar panels to produce relatively small volumes of green H2 from water via electrolysis? And is blue hydrogen — produced by breaking natural gas into hydrogen and carbon dioxide, then capturing and sequestering the CO2 — really a solution considering efficiency losses and the fact that only about 50% of the CO2 from steam methane reforming (SMR) units is actually snared? Which brings us to Air Products & Chemicals’ newly announced final investment decision (FID) on a $4.5 billion complex in Louisiana that will use a proprietary process — and not SMR — to produce what you might call deep-blue hydrogen and capture and sequester 95% of the resulting CO2. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the project and its implications.