Monday, September 3, 2012

NDIC's Current Bakken Update

Link here to NDIC's August 1, 2012, presentation to the Bismarck, North Dakota, Chamber of Commerce.

My hunch is that this bullet has been on the slide for quite some time, but I simply didn't notice it. Or, NDIC has quietly increased the estimate of recoverable oil in the Bakken. Regardless, here are the Bakken numbers according to the NDIC:

  • Proved: 7 billion bbls of recoverable oil
  • Probable: 10 billion bbls 
  • Possible: 14 billion bbls

Compare with CLR's estimate: 45 billion bbls recoverable oil (raised from recent 24 billion bbls)

Mexico Is Facing a Shortage of Natural Gas: You Will Never Guess Why

Why? Due to the American glut of natural gas. I do not recall RBN Energy talking about this, but I could have missed it.
The pinch illustrates how the global supply balance was rocked by advanced extraction techniques that have buyers in the U.S. paying about one-eighth the price Asian nations are charged for gas. At the same time, nations like Mexico that link prices to the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark are seeing rapid demand growth compared with Europe, where most rates are tied to oil. 
There are so many story lines here, not limited to:
  • energy focus moving from Mideast to North America
  • cheap energy in North America could spur industrial development, if ...
  • cheap energy in North America vs very expensive energy in Europe, just as the Euro implodes
  • renewable energy costs in Europe
But the story line I like best:
  • how the global supply balance has been rocked by advanced extraction techniques 
... extraction techniques that have been developed in the Bakken laboratory. I have said many, many times, there are two stories in the Bakken: a) the actual production; and, b) how the business climate and the technology have come together to show the world how it can be done. I think back to Snopes, et al, years ago, suggesting that the Bakken was over-hyped. 

What They Will Be Talking About Tuesday; Oasis Has Two Nice Wells; Whiting With Another Nice Sanish TFS Well


September 3, 2012: it is amazing how some throw-away lines seem to have legs. That throw-away line about the US sitting this one out if Israel attacks Iran, has a follow-on story today: the Democrats remove "pro-Israel" stance from their platform. At least that's the headline.

I see the Democrats have also removed "God" from the platform. At least that's the headline.

Original Post
NASCAR; PGA golf; college football.

Futures up slightly; as my daughter would say, "futures mean squat."

If Israel strikes Iran, it looks like the US will sit this one out, unless "someone" attacks US assets.  I guess we're not choosing sides this time.

Bakken Operations
Active rigs in North Dakota: 192

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend and Tuesday:
  • 20625, 1,946, Oasis, Berkner Federal 5602 43-11H, Bonetrail, about 60K to date before IP released; cum 41K 7/12;
  • 20674, 843, CLR, Rollefstad 3-3H, Antelope; 41K in two full months before IP released; cum 44K 7/12;
  • 21314, 1,292, Oasis, Harbour 5501 13-4H, Tyrone, about 40K to date before IP released; cum 44K 7/12;
  • 21531, 412, OXY USA, Nordloef 160-90-30P-1H, Dimond, < 10k in first four months; cum 11K 7/12
  • 21772, 2,994, BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-18 3TFH, Alger, t10/12; cum 109K 10/13;
  • 22076, 248, Cornerstone, Ingerson 7-13-24H, Woburn, t8/12; cum 29K 10/13;
  • 21212, 524, Fidelity, Blessings 11-36H, 11K first month; erratic after that; cum 25K 7/12;
  • 21565, 250, Hunt, Elsworth 1-31-30H, Ellsworth, 10K in < 2 months; cum 13K 7/12;
  • 21960, 1,220, MRO, Vance Strommen 21-13H, Killdeer, t8/12; cum 74K 10/13;
  • 22082, 3,058, BEXP, Smith Farm 23-14 2H, Cow Creek, t9/12; cum 124K 10/13;
  • 22413, dry, Hess, AV-Claire 163-94-211H-1, Forthun, 
  • 20574, 329, Whiting, Franks Creek State 21-16TFH, T.R.; 11K before IP released; erratic production; 12K 7/12;
  • 21604, 1,349, Whiting, Dishman 13-19TFH, Sanish; looks like a fairly nice well; the TFH does not look as good in the Sanish oil field as the middle Bakken, just an anecdotal observation based on a few wells; but this one looks good; cum 41K 7/12;
  • 21626, 723, CLR, Hobart 1-27H, Oliver, cum 6K 7/12;
  • 21918, 321, Crescent Point Energ, CPEUSC Fantuz 13-24-158N-100W, Winner/wildcat; t8/12; cum 91K 10/13;

Walking rigs (regional links break early and break often) with video (the old computer I am using crashed when I linked to the video; just a warning):
What once took five to six days can now take as little as five to six hours to relocate an oil rig. That`s because the industry is now using walking rigs that can be moved from one well to the next on the same drilling pad.

Helms predicts by the end of next year the walking rigs will increase from 50 percent to 80 or 90 percent. Helms says by keeping the rigs on the same drilling pad, there will be 400 fewer semi loads needed to drill a well. 
This will be offset by the increased amount of proppant that will be trucked in.

By the way, these walking rigs don't come cheap, and they are part of the essay answer to the earlier quiz. 

Trinidad-Tobago: I don't know how this compares with the Bakken rigs. More to follow, no doubt. 

Another story on drilling and rigs, with some data points (note publication date); lots of advertising at the link:
  • About one-quarter of all the oil and gas rigs operating in the U.S. are located in just two places: the Bakken play in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas.
  • Between the two, four hundred rigs are plugging away into the soil — and it only serves to help production rates when you can't miss.
  • The same rules that have always applied to the oil and gas game don't seem to apply in North Dakota, where drillers are striking oil with nearly every well.
  • Their drilling success rates are as high as 99% — and even conservative estimates report nine out of every ten Bakken wells are profitable.
And then this: 
“They're all spoiled... Things never used to be this good...”

This particular rant was aimed at the younger guys flocking to work the rigs that have sprouted up in North Dakota over the last few years.

“There was a time when drilling a well actually carried some risk to it,” he went on, waiting to top off.

“Nowadays, they have all sorts of gadgets and tests to make sure they're on target. I don't think any of those new roughnecks have even seen a dry hole before.”

From NASA, an answer to the harsh North Dakota climate:  drilling rigs that require no more than a 16-year-old with a PlayStation control box.


A Note for the Granddaughters

Tonight was our inaugural bicycle ride after dark. We put very expensive lights (front and rear) on your new bicycles.  We bought these lights from the very high-end bicycle shop down the street, and, wow, they are really something. They are Blackburn Voyager and they appear to be top-of-the-line. They are really, really nice. We bought front and rear separately, but the lights at the link are what we bought. We took them down to the park, rode through the forest/dirt trail. The highlight of the evening was scaring a brown rabbit.

The weather in the Boston area is absolutely gorgeous. Perhaps sweater weather or a light windbreaker this evening after dark but that was about it. One more day of summer vacation; school starts Tuesday.

On another note, for those who graduated from high school before 1970, and still enjoy reading novels, I highly recommend you take your old copy of Henry James' Portrait of a Lady down from your bookshelves, and re-read the first two chapters. While looking for that old copy of the novel, go to Amazon. com and order Michael Gorra's Portrait of a Novel, just out this past year. It is incredible. Portrait of a Novel is a novel way of writing a biography; in this case, a biography of Henry James, building it around Portrait of a Lady. I have found it fascinating to read two or three chapters of the novel, and then a few pages of the biography; they go together very, very well. One of the unexpected highlights was the discussion of Middlemarch by George Eliot. It's very possible Books on Broadway in Williston has a copy of Michael Gorra's biography; if not, they will order it for you.

Minimal Posting Today; Some Throw-Away Stories on KOG, SandRidge

KOG in light of QEP/Helis deal, part I --

.... and if there was a "Part I," there had to be a "Part II."

Somehow these two articles didn't "connect" with me. Perhaps there was nothing particularly new for regular readers or maybe just too many articles on KOG. I don't know. But, it is what it is.

At the top of the sidebar at the right (on this date; it will change over time), there is a link to the QEP/Helis deal.


Motley Fool has a story on SandRidge. I was blown away by the CEO's compensation.
CEO Tom Ward's annual compensation jumped from nearly $14 million to a little over $25 million over the same period.
By comparison, the CEO of KOG, a comparable company by market capitalization, took home just around $1.5 million last year.  Even the CEO of ExxonMobile earns only $35, only $10 million more than Tom Ward.