Wednesday, September 4, 2019

LOL -- It's Always A "Surprise" -- September 4, 2019

Oilprice: "crude oil inventory build takes oil markets by surprise."

Okay, that headline got my attention. I expected a build of 3 to 5 million bbls after an 11-million-bble draw last week.

So what was this "surprise" build? One million bbls? Two million bbls? Six million bbls?

Hold on to your hat.

A build of 401,000 bbls. Give me a break. That's a build? That's flat. No change. A country that produces upwards of twelve million bopd. A small state that produces a million bopd. And a build of 401,000 bbls gets a "surprise" headline.

The only surprise is the false precision. Calculated down to one-thousand bbls. A single DOT-111 railroad tank car carries 30,000 gallons or about 700 bbls of oil. So, the API can estimate the build/draw down to a single rail tank car. Color me impressed.

After the report, WTI went up another half a percent to close at $56.55.

Has Anyone Else Noticed? -- September 4, 2019

A reader sent me a note that reminded me. I've been meaning to post this but I keep forgetting. Finally.
Oilprice -- the poster site for peak oilers -- is quick to point out when Bakken production is declining. But to date oilprice has not yet posted the story that North Dakota reported an all-time production record in the most recent Director's Cut, for June, 2019, data.
And despite enough takeaway capacity, the operators of the DAPL are ready to double the capacity of that pipeline. 

By the way, see comment at this post regarding oilprice

Off The Radar Scope -- September 4, 2019

A reminder from a previous post, back on June 7, 2019:
Peregrine: this is the information I have on Peregrine over at "Bakken operators" --
Peregrine Petroleum Partners, LTD: website
  • acquires producing and non-producing property in the heart of the Bakken; to include 22 producing wells, March 9, 2019;
  • acquiring royalty property in Divide County, press release, March 3,  2018
  • May 6, 2016: a permit for a well in Hay Draw field, McKenize County
  • April 16, 2015: Peregrine Petroleum: has six permits in North Dakota; the previous five were back in the early 1990's; this is the first new permit in North Dakota in two decades for Peregrine:
    • Case (not a permit) 23920, Peregrine Petroleum, Covered Bridge-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; 4 wells, McKenzie; Covered Bridge is a 3-section field in south central McKenzie County, far from the sweet spots in McKenzie; Peregrine did have some Bakken wells back in the 1990's; there is a huge Birdbear well in this little section that has produced almost 500,000 bbls since 1983; a stripper well now
  • March 13, 2015: Peregrine drilled five (5) Bakken wells many years ago; all very short horizontal wells in the far south-central/west McKenzie County (currently not much activity); they are all still active and producing, albeit very, very little; this is the company's first permit in North Dakota since 1993
That was posted to note that Peregrine is now drilling this well in Covered Bridge:
  • 36558, conf, Peregrine, Larson 15-10 1H, Covered Bridge, section 15-146-102; the company is drilling a SWD in the same immediate area;

Just Another Day In The Bakken -- September 4, 2019

This page won't be updated.

A nice little production jump in this well:
  • 31409, 2,514, Whiting, Koala 44-5TFHU, t11/16; cum 263K 7/19;
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Incredible Whiting Flatland Federal Wells -- An Update --September 4, 2019

This page will not be updated.

The Whiting Flatland Federal wells are tracked here.

These were already incredible wells. Now look at recent production.

The well:
  • 27522, 4,207, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFHU, Twin Valley, t10/14; cum 541K 7/19, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Enerplus Getting Ready To Frack A Few Wells -- There Is A Ten-Well Pad Ready To Be Fracked -- September 4, 2019

This page will not be updated.

The Enerplus tortoise/turtle/butterfly wells are tracked here.

These two wells were taken off line in 6/19:
  • 27588, 1,867, Enerplus, Snapper 152-94-33C-28H, Antelope, Sanish, t11/14; cum 450K 7/19; a huge bump 7/15; off line 7/19;
  • 27587, 2,188, Enerplus, Softshell 152-94-33C-28H TF, Antelope, Sanish, t11/14; cum 76K 6/19; incredibly good well with multiple bumps in production; off line 6/19;
If so, there are a number of Enerplus wells to the east on SI/NC status that need to be fracked.

The Incredible Bakken -- September 4, 2019

This page won't be updated.

The AN-Gudbranson wells are tracked here.

The Bakken wells are simply incredible. Another example.

The well:
  • 33533, 2,444, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-8, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 286K 7/19;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


How's that AN-Bohmbach Well Doing? -- September 4, 2019

This page won't be updated.

The AN-Bohmbach wells are tracked here.

So, now three or four months later, how is that AN-Bohmbach well doing that had an IP of 10,626 (no typo).

The well:
  • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 166K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The other Bohmbach wells have also been updated.

Hubbert's Theory Re-Visited, Part 6 -- September 4, 2019

According to Hubbert's theory, this well should have gone into terminal decline back in late 2017. See jump in production.

The well:
  • 25305, 2,243, QEP, Paul 2-26-35BH, Grail, t12/13; cum 418K 7/19;
Period of production of interest:

Hubbert's Theory Re-Visited, Part 5 -- September 4, 2019

According to Hubbert's theory, this well should have gone into terminal decline back in 2016. Note production jump:

The well:
  • 25569, 2,642, QEP, Dodge 2-6-7TFH, Grail, t11/13; cum 337K 7/19;
Period of interest, production:

Hubbert's Theory Revisited, Part 4 -- September, 4, 2019

Another well that should be in terminal decline by now according to Hubbert's theory, but in fact production jumped and shows some sustainability.

The well:
  • 25721, 1,863, XTO, Strommen 44X-7D, Killdeer, t11/13; cum 224K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Whiting With Two New Permits -- September 4, 2019


Later, 4:36 p.m. CT: upon seeing the photograph at the original post, a reader wrote -- 
Just last night I discovered a new (for me) Häagen-Dazs flavor. I'm here to tell you it's fabulous beyond belief. I'll also tell you it disappears -- Bourbon Vanilla Bean Truffle .... other reviewers thought the same thing ...

... should we also note it's rather pricey?
Original Post

The Bakken economy:

Active rigs:
Active Rigs6162563375

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting (2); Hess
  • Field: Glass Bluff; Alkali Creek
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has permits for two Klose Federal wells in section 23-151-103, Glass Bluff oil field
    • Hess has a permit for another EN-Sorenson B well in section 35-155-94, Alkali Creek
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: pending
  • 34754, 36 (no typo), Hunt, Trulson 156-90-11-14H-4, Ross, t8/19; cum --; sundry form received July, 2018, initial pressure test for the 7" casing in this well has failed; work proposed; API: 33-061-04218; fracked 6/1/2019 - 6/3/2019 -- 5 million gallons of water (moderate frack; 93% water;
  • 34348, 99 (no typo), XTO, Walton Federal 41x019BXC, Bear Den, t7/19; cum --; apparently some difficult, sundry form received February11, 2019: XTO plans to do remedial cement work prior to frack/completion; September 15, 2018, insufficient cement; API 33-053-08326; no frack data yet;
Note, of interest, CLR has renamed three LCU Jessie wells -- the LCU Jessie wells are tracked here --
  • 36751, loc, CLR, Jessie 2ND (was LCU Jessie 2-24H1),
  • 36752, loc, CLR, Jessie 3ND (was LCU Jessie 3-24H),
  • 36753, loc, CLR, Jessie 4ND (was LCU Jessie 4-24H1),

Reservation News -- Tax Law Update -- September 4, 2019

Old news, but something I had not paid much attention to. Big story. Maybe. Time will tell.

Watching Paint Dry

Let's check in on Channel 37, The Weather Channel.
  • a commercial:
  • a commercal: weedkillerhelpline; call us now!
  • a commercial: Nissan
  • commercial: -1800-811-3054; stairway elevator
  • a commercial: The Weather Channel
  • a commercial: Spectrum
  • when will the ads end? they go on forever
  • finally
  • Dorian: category 2; winds at 105; off-shore; in other words, for the US, one big dud
    • wow, finally: "state of emergency" -- video -- talking heads -- no storm video; dry and as calm as can be
    • now we see some mild weather; folks out enjoying a walk along the beach
    • video of catastrophic damage in Grand Bahama; one, repeat, one death in Grand Bahama in most severe hurricane in history in this region; but more deaths expected -- Prime Minister; where was the Queen?
    •  Freeport airport closed; 
    • "wind and rain lashing Florida's east coast" -- video either unavailable or not noteworthy; no video being shown
    • I-95 traffic through Jacksonville, FL, looks unremarkable
  • a commercial: BlueDiamond frying pans
  • a commercial: Olay
  • a commercial: Navage Nasal Spray 
  • a commercial: Walgreens
  • a commercial: zip recruiter
  • a commercial: FlexSeal 
  • a commercial: Entyvio
  • a commercial: StateFarm
  • Dorian: again, no wind, no rain video; interviewing NC residents; hurricane not there yet; blamed for two, repeat, two deaths in Florida; approximately 200,000 deaths per year in Florida every year
  • and, so it goes
  • watching paint dry; the biggest ever hurricane in this region
  • Neil DeGrasse Tyson was correct
  • The Weather Channel right now: 8 minutes of ads, 2 minutes of watching paint dry

Wow, I Love This Blog -- Anticipation Rewarded -- Despite Hurricane Dorian -- Record US SUV Sales -- September 4, 2019

EV sales here.

US auto sales, August, 2019, link here: light trucks drive Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyndai to gains. Any American makers in that list of four? What's going on here?

Fiat Chrysler, Ford, and GM no longer release monthly US sales data; their data is now released quarterly. Everyone else? Monthly sales data.

Update, September 5, 2019: from MarketWatch -- annualized August auto sales in the US were "better than expected" and up 2% year-over-year at 17 million vehicles, equal to a three month average. 

Original Post
Year-over-year change:
  • Honda: a whopping 20%
  • Hyundai: 12%
  • Nissan: 16%
  • Toyota: 12%
  • VW: 10%
  • US light vehicle: 13%
Other takeaway notes:
  • first time in four years that each of the four big Asian companies were up more than 10 percent in a given month. All of them were aided by strong demand for light trucks; "recession just around the corner" so folks are buying light trucks now to ride out the recession when prices would be even less;
  • July’s estimated 1.2 percent gain marked the first time this year that sales rose – if estimates for the Detroit 3 are accurate. Starting in July, Fiat Chrysler joined Ford Motor Co. and General Motors in reporting on a quarterly basis.
  • Honda: a monthly record -- repeat, a monthly record (albeit helped by an extended month, Labor Day weekend); but, still, a monthly record;
  • Nissan: volume rose 16% but it's luxury division, Infiniti dropped 15%
  • retail sales rose 11 percent in August, Hyundai said, marking the sixth time in the last seven months that the brand achieved year-over-year retail sales growth. Hyundai along with Kia were among the few automakers to reduce incentive spending in August
  • retail deliveries of Hyundai crossovers totaled 34,844, a monthly record, with sales of the subcompact Kona rising 34 percent
  • Hyundai said August sales of the new, three-row Palisade crossover topped 5,000, exceeding company targets.
  • the sales increases came despite threats posed by Hurricane Dorian. Many dealers along Florida’s Atlantic coast shuttered or curtailed sales operations over the weekend as showroom traffic dwindled and to allow employees to prepare for the storm
Memo to self: new car -- the Chrysler minivan (the Pacifica) vs the new Hyundai Palisade. It appears to be a no-brainer.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

For investors, F:
  • last raised its divided (from 12 cents to 15 cents in January, 2015 -- more than four years ago)
  • large, extended family living off those dividends
  • paying 6.54%
  • trailing PE: 17
  • forward P/E: 6.6 
  • trading in range, mid-year
  • one-year target: slight gain ($10.86)

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 4, 2019

I think I'm going to take the day off. Will come back to blogging later. Things seem slow, somewhat unsettled. Need to get away from social media for awhile.

One Parthian shot: I posted this story last week suggesting the story had legs, and the story may have been one of the top national non-energy stories of the week -- now, I see, that the story was posted in The New York Post on July 11, 2019. And it's true: our local Starbucks no longer has any newspapers available for sale or otherwise. Except perhaps at Barnes and Noble I am unaware of any location that now sells the WSJ in the north Texas suburbs. Home delivery is incredibly unreliable so we canceled our home delivery WSJ subscription a year or so ago.

Within my lifetime, it may happen that children will grow up having never seen a newspaper just like no one under the age of 20 (?) has ever used a rotary dial phone and the corner pay phone is also a thing of the past.

However, interestingly enough, contrary to all the hyperbole, there is more snow than ever for those who want to ski.

Because of the holiday earlier this week, the weekly EIA petroleum report will be released Thursday September 5, 2019. 

The Apple Page

Apple set to launch low-cost iPhone early next year. Wow. 

The Book Review

From "Up, Up, and Away," a book review by Deidre Nansen McCloskey. The book: Alan Greenspan's and Adrian Wooldridge's Capitalism in America: A History, c. 2019. In The Claremont Review of Books, Volume XIX, Number 2, Spring, 2019, p. 99.
It's good to have a cheerful economic history of the United States. Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve form 1987 until his retirement in 2006, and Adrian Wooldridge, the political editor of the Economist, set out to tell the "exhilarating story" of America's economic triumph, with a few headwinds towards the end.
We know the story, or at least some comic or tragic version of it picked up form high school, college, the movies, or politics. Even the headwinds, such as the rise of entitlements and the inflexibility of the financial system, are seen as cheerfully overcome-able.

The cheer occasionally grates. Thomas Jefferson is praised, as he should be, for articulating the great idae of liberal equality. but he is not blamed, as he should be, and in the next sentence, for his unusually tight grip on his slaves, some of them perhaps his children. He is praised, as he should be, for intoning that "[t]he mass of mankind had not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred to ready to ride them." But he is not blamed, as he should be, and in the next sentence, for lifting imperfectly the formulation without attribution from Richard Rumbold, the English Leveller, in his speech from the scaffold in 1685.

The book does the Lord's work, though, with verve and statistics and charm. Along with a good dea of what every adult knows there are brilliant and informative riffs, by Wooldridge on Alexander Hamilton versus Jefferson (though his grasp of the Homestead Act is not so good), or Greenspan on what to do about the recent financial system (his grasp of the gold standard is not so good).
Apt quotations sparkle throughout -- a stylistic device that academic histories often overlook. It is very much a trade book, not a textbook, but nonetheless covers the ground. It's a good read, in which American Republicans and British Tories will delight in, and which American leftish Democrats and British Corbynites should read for the cheerful news, but won't.

It's filled, for example, with engaging capsule biographies of clever and avaricious people, mainly to illustrate American innovations from Ben Franklin to Steve Jobs. Yet Greenspan and Wooldridge are judicious in blame, too, pointing for example to Thomas Edison's misunderstanding of direct current, which for decades stopped progress in electricity. It was similar to James Watt's Folly, which for decades stopped progress in steam engines. Both arose, it should be noted, from patents, the temporary but too-long monopolies the government grants to the clever and avaricious. And Greenspan and Wooldridge get right the egalitarian and often unpatentable sources of innovation. It didn't take science to innovate with, say, container ships It took enterprise and liberal institutions letting people like Malcom McLean have a go.

Hubbert's Theory, Re-Visited, Part 3 -- September 4, 2019

This well was on the "abandoned well" list in 5/19. Today I see it's back on status.
September 29, 2018: #17086; great well but taken off-line 4/18; suggesting other activity in the area; remains IA 4/19; AB, 5/19; now, 7/19, A.
The well:
  • 17086, 560, Newfield, Jorgenson 1-15H, Lost Bridge, t11/08; cum 336K 7/19; 
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare