Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Hubbert's Theory Re-Visited In The Bakken, Part 1 -- September 4, 2019

According to Hubbert's theory, production should continue to decline in this well, but not only is it holding its own, production is actually up slightly. Note that this is a very, very old well by "Bakken" standards. Production is increasing.

The well:
  • 18435, 2,376, off line since 10/18; t3/11; cum 308K 7/19; active as of 4/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-201931424143384408270226930
SANISH6-201930421541595369298429770
SANISH5-2019141400131226339279240
SANISH4-201922272104772142130
SANISH3-201900450000
SANISH2-20190000000
SANISH1-20190000000
SANISH12-201816120000
SANISH11-20180000000
SANISH10-20186393739907677610
SANISH9-20182517691864494353735260

Another example.

The well:
  • 34058, 541, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 160K 7/19;
Total production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201931262192620510327440352642716199
BAKKEN6-20193028955288568542452303351510373
BAKKEN5-2019121071510611303016489136192240
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-2019001090000
BAKKEN2-20191136145952722410
BAKKEN1-2019311346413449515718619413913905
BAKKEN12-2018311697316983567117743255114704
BAKKEN11-2018302018020185662917394338913540
BAKKEN10-20183125746259101019317416611810762
BAKKEN9-20182516663163817222787955421539
BAKKEN8-2018146626626988193012330

Another example.

The well:
  • 18138, 1,161, CLR, Simmental 1-21H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 341K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20191212211208356168301438
BAKKEN6-20192745014768290666412855837
BAKKEN5-20193184678683472213084117211305
BAKKEN4-20193091658974821112871195710299
BAKKEN3-201915464642918249621525213410
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019002590000
BAKKEN12-201831138213814133050234093
BAKKEN11-2018301394128537429212199107
BAKKEN10-201831144814334253126241893

2 comments:

  1. Nothing has been proven on halo effect unless there is a proper analysis. Some statistical comparison of shutins versus adjacent fracs for instance. Just cherrypicking wells that seem to show a phenomenon is not "proof". Are there other wells that don't show a jump? How many of each? Also, you don't even show a long history after the jumps (how fast does it come down).

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