Week 41: October 7, 2024 -- October 13, 2024

Locator: 48563TOPSTORIES.

Top story: 

• Mideast: on the brink of all-out war
• diplomatic solution? US won't support Israel if targets are oil, nuclear
• neighboring Mideast countries won't support Israel or US if war expands
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Category 4 Hurricane Milton hits middle of Florida; close on heels of Hurricane Helene
• Trump - Kamala Harris campaign in home stretch; less than 30 days; polls suggest they are tied.
• US equity markets breaking records; inflation holds with 2-handle
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI spikes, then pulls back
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close -- more records -- broad rally --

Hunt Oil Company With Four New Permits -- October 11, 2024

Locator: 48562B.

Grocery prices: at our favorite grocer today -- I was surprised how many things were on sale and how far some prices had fallen. 

Tin of tuna trending toward $2.00 last year was on sale for 89 cents today. Six pack of Coca-Cola bottles trending toward $6.00 / six-pack and more last week, were had today for $3.25 for a six-pack. Amazing. And similar prices coming down throughout the store.

More on groceries, see this link.

Deflation or disinflation: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.56. Monday, next week, might we see $80?

Active rigs: 36.

Five new permits, #41233 - #41237, inclusive:

• Operators: Hunt Oil Company (4); Br
• Fields: Clear Water (Mountrail); Little Knife (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• BR has a permit for a Keene well, SWSE 35-147-97, 
• to be sited 500 FSL and 1967 FWL;
• Hunt Oil Company has permits for four Clearwater wells SWSE 14-157-90, 
• to be sited 290 FSL and beetween 2045 FEL and 1955 FEL.

About 25 wells transferred from XTO Energy to Continental Resources, all in Williams Country, centered around T154N-R97W.

Happy Birthday -- Two Years Old -- The Biden Bull Market -- October 11, 2024

Locator: 48561BULLMARKET.

Today, link here:

Today, link here:

Previously posted:

Bull market: the other day I suggested the "two-year" bull market is a lot longer in duration than two years. Now I understand why "they're" so intent on calling it a "two-year" bull market. From google:

Second anniversary of the "bull market." Many mentions on CNBC today of this being the second anniversary of the current bull market. Yes, I know ... but I'm having trouble not seeing a bull market since 2009 with very, very minor interruptions of no consequence (in hindsight). People that can’t see a bull market since 2009 (and possibly even as far back as 1996) will never be satisfied. 

*********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have.

Breaking: Boeing -- Pre-Announces 3Q24 Loss -- Just After Market Closes, Friday Afternoon, October 11, 2024

Locator: 48560BOEING.

Link here.

Later, link here:

Usual disclaimer in place. Done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors. Everything needs to be fact-checked. A dynamic situation.

Details to follow.

Boeing: pre-announces 3Q24 loss.

• a substantial GAAP loss: $9.97 / share 
• 3Q24 revenue: $17.8 billion
  
• to take a $5 billion 3Q24 charges
  
• cutting 10% of its work force across the company; 17,000
• will delay entry into service with next a/c, the Boeing 777X ; from next year to 2026
• ending production of the 767 freighter, when current planned production end

New CEO:

• kitchen-sink cuts, but also existential moves
• not just about short term balance sheet but long-term survival
  

Mike Santoli: agrees. More than just short-term balance sheet issues.

Jefferies: senior research analyst

• Boeing Defense a really big issue
• forecast to lose $1 billion next year 

Ticker:

• after being up slightly during normal trading hours, drops almost 3% after hours
• recovers slightly
  

Other comments:

• machinists strike continues
• 33,000 machinists
• that will be an interesting meeting when the union boss announces that of those 33,000 on strike, 10% will be out of a job before the strike is over
• one would assume, seniority takes priority
• one would assume most of those losing their jobs would be new hires over the past couple of years 
• too big to fail: when does Trump and/or Harris announce they will not let Boeing fail? 
• too big to fail: how did "we" get into this situation in the first place?
  

Problem For Those Small, Modular, Buffett-Gates Nuclear Reactors? October 11, 2024

Locator: 48559NUCLEAR.

Link here.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 4, October 11, 2024

Locator: 48558CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

And we move on to tech.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 3, October 11, 2024

Locator: 48557CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

First hour begins with the banks. 

Sara Eisen: the markets -- best day since February, 2024.

JPM, App Economy, link here:

How the Biden DOJ is transforming the market, link here:

The Magnificent 7 (and BRK) -- building a cash hoard; it's impossible to keep up, exhibit A:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2, October 11, 2024

Locator: 48557CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Inflation data today: mixed. But not bad. By noon, all will be forgotten. How Yahoo!Finance reports it:

Steve Liesman: after Rick's comments, Steve Liesman comes out fighting. 

I'm getting tired of Rick Santelli. Good, bad, or indifferent, Steve Liesman is much more reasonable, less emotional (wow, that's an understatement).

A reminder, the Fed's favorite metric: core PCE.

The interview with David Seif, Nomura Securities, worth listening to again. Folks are hung up on "the target rate of 2%."

David Seif gets it. It's not "2%" -- it's an inflation rate with a "2%-handle." Big difference. This was the "core" of the argument between Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman this morning -- who works for whom? LOL.

The Allstate CEO: an incredible interview. 

Allstate has been getting out of Florida over the past fifteen years. The three states of interest: Florida, Texas, and California. At the state level, of those three, Texas has done the best job of "managing" the home insurance issue, was my takeaway from the interview. Insurance industry in good shape. Nothing actionable.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 1, October 11, 2024

Locator: 48557CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Becky Quick: what a nuisance. Loves to hear herself talk.

Consumer spending falls in September: down 0.3% m//m. This is "dollars spent." October could be much worse following hurricanes Helene and Milton.

AMD: at this moment, the big question -- for investors, with regard to AMD, what now?

Banks: huge profits; tickers gain. Wells Fargo up 4%.

My favorite chart: MMF assets continue to increase. Link here. Total money market fund assets increased by $11.26 billion; stand stand at $6.47 trillion.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have.

Groceries And Inflation -- October 11, 2024

Locator: 48556INFLATION.

Groceries, link here.

Re-posting from yesterday, groceries, link here:

Inflation, 2020 - 2021: people still don't get it.

And now this, link here.

TGIF -- October 11, 2024

Locator: 48555B.

DFW: $9 billion project to "transform" DFW -- "reconstruction" of Terminal C alone -- $3 billion. I would consider Terminal C the "flagship" terminal for American Airlines at DFW. Five terminals with a sixth terminal (Terminal F) now under construction. Link here.

Groceries, link here.

Pre-market:

• banks higher; some much higher;
• Tesla: dropping
• Nvidia: up slightly; Goldan Sachs raises price point
• Broadcome: flat to slightly negative

Tesla and Elon Musk: underwhelms.  Shares down 6% in pre-market trading.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.11.

Sunday, October 13, 2024: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 540 for the year
None.

Saturday, October 12, 2024: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 540 for the year
40260, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-15-22-3H,
39211, conf, BR, Boxer 4C MBH-ULW,

Friday, October 11, 2024: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 538 for the year
40259, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-15-22-4H
40258, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-15-22-5H,

RBN Energy: difficulties in bringing new units online at Vogtle could help future nuclear projects.

There is a lot of talk about the best way to meet the expected increases in U.S. power demand, driven by manufacturing growth and the rapid development of large-scale data centers, which has sparked renewed interest in nuclear power. The most recent reactors to come online were Units 3 and 4 at Georgia’s Vogtle nuclear power station, but they came in well over budget and far behind schedule. Still, the startup of those units is a significant milestone as they are the first new reactors to come online in the U.S. since 2016. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the lessons learned from the Vogtle project and what they might mean for future nuclear development.