Friday, June 15, 2012

For Newbies: Satellite Views Of Your Wells


After the original note below, a reader sent me this note:
On the NDIC GIS map server, one can click on "NAIP 2009" under "imagery" at the sidebar to the right of the map.  The reader says the imagery may not be as recent as Google's and having just looked at it, it seems not to be as clear. However, the topography seems to be better visualized. Anyway, at least two options.
The instructions below seem a bit complicated, but once you do it, you will see how fast it is: a) center your cursor; b) click on "rect identify'; c) cut and paste the "lat" and "lon" at google maps. You don't have to clean up the "lat" and "lon" before pasting.

Original Post
Easy as pie.

1. NDIC website.

2. Click on "GIS Map Server" on left sidebar, about the eleventh button down.

3. At the map, at the sidebar on the left, near the bottom, click on find well.

4. Type in one word of the well's name.  Locate the name of the well you are looking for.

5. Click on that well. It will be highlighted on the GIS map server.

6. Again, on the sidebar at the left of the map, click on the eleventh button down, "Rect Identify."

7. Nothing will happen. Drag the cross-hairs over the well you are interested in. Click on that well.

8. At the bottom of the GIS map are the coordinates of the well; you will have to scroll to the right.

9. Do you see "lat," and "lon"?  Highlight the "lat" and "lon" with your curser.  "Copy."

10. Go to Google maps.

11.  Paste "lat" and "lon" into the white rectangle/search box at the top of Google maps.

12. Hit search, and voila -- there you are. Make sure you are in "satellite" mode on Google maps and you can drill down to see the well.

Dallas -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- For the Bakken, Skip and Scroll

It's hard to believe I was going on 30 years old when the original "Dallas" was on television. Wiki says it started in 1978 -- I would have been 27 at the time, I guess. I don't recall being that old when I watched it. I honestly didn't think I had time then to watch it, but I must have seen some episodes because I remember the opening credits very, very well. In 1978 I was raising a family, and in a most intense training program that was literally 24/7. I honestly don't remember watching much television then.

So, tonight after the golf tournament, and after a bit of news, I wasn't watching, but it was on in the background to provide company, all of a sudden on TNT, it must have been 11:00 p.m., the "new" Dallas begins.

It opens with a truck-mounted rig drilling into a gusher...on the Apple laptop, the data showed that the IP was 10,000 bbls. But there's an argument over whether the owner will allow drilling on South Fork -- the matriarch who died many years ago had forbidden any drilling for oil on South Fork. OMG. And then these fateful words, " will have to be fracked." OMG. Fracked.

Funniest first few minutes of any show I had seen in quite some time. Anyway, that was about as much as I could watch, the first 20 minutes or so. Television is off; I'm a happy camper, and will listen to some music.

Week 24: June 10, 2012 -- June 16, 2012

Could Bakken-centric companies be undervalued?

MillionDollarWay has been identified as a fraudulent site; I've notified Norton but something tells me it fell on deaf (or Bangladeshi) ears

Daily production now over 609,000 bopd in North Dakota

Rangeland ships first Bakken crude from rail terminal

North Dakota tax receipts setting records; Williston surpassed Fargo by $100 million for 4Q11.

Updating the list of fracking companies in North Dakota

Seismic survey covering 1,000 square miles of the reservation to commence

More crew camps for Dunn County

Hotel boom in the North Dakota oil patch

Williston wireline: 2,000 more rail tankers to the oil patch; FEMA trailers to the oil patch; Montana native to head COP

Ten (10) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, June 15, 2012 --
  • Operators: MRO (4), Triangle (3), Samson (2), Whiting
  • Fields: Ambrose (Divide), Werner (Dunn), Rosebud (Williams), Lost Bridge (Dunn), Gaylord (Billings)
Seven wells released from "tight hole" status:
  • 19929, 357, CLR, Glendon 1-17H, Williams,
  • 20328, 1,647, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-1H, Sanish, McKenzie,
  • 20972, no data, Petro-Hunt, Brenna 152-96-23C-14-4H, McKenzie,
  • 21183, no data, KOG, Smokey 16-20-32-15H, McKenzie,
  • 21639, 464, CLR, Sutton 1-3H, Williams,
  • 21663, no data, BEXP, Zacrep 2-11 1H, Williams,
  • 21842, 671, Zenergy, Knels 20-29H, McKenzie,
Again, a high number of wells not being completed.

Two producing wells completed, including:
  • 19614, 1,635, Oasis, Christianson 5404 14-34H, Painted Woods, Williams, t4/12; cum 9K 4/12;
Painted Woods is turning out to be a pretty good field.

Economic Miracle in North Dakota -- CarpeDiem

Link here to CarpeDiem.

OPEC Leaves Production Unchanged

This story is a bit old, by a day or so.

It is my worldview that the current price of oil is about $10 - $20 less than what Saudi Arabia would like (whether it's WTI or Brent).

So, let's take that as the starting point.

If prices are $10 to $20 lower than what the Saudis would like, why would they not advocate for decreased production? Some possible answers:
  • their real target is Iran
  • they are concerned about global recession driven by high oil prices; they are huge investors, also
  • there is simply not enough new data for them to change course -- it was just easier to do "nothing" at this point in time, than to do "something"
  • they agree with Boone Pickens: the supply/demand delta is tighter than folks realize
  • the supply/demand delta is tighter than folks realize, and could get tighter with Iranian sanctions
  • their target is alternative energy sources (renewables, Canada, unconventional/tight oil)
  • it's the eurozone: the eurozone is under great stress; it is in Saudi's investing interests to not make things worse for the EU
If this were a poll, I don't know which way I would vote, but this is how I would rack and stack those choices (top to bottom, most likely to least likely):
  • there is simply not enough new data for them to change course -- it was just easier to do "nothing" at this point in time, than to do "something"
  • it's the eurozone: the eurozone is under great stress; it is in Saudi's investing interests to not make things worse for the EU
  • their real target is Iran
  • they are concerned about global recession driven by high oil prices; they are huge investors, also
  • they agree with Boone Pickens: the supply/demand delta is tighter than folks realize
  • the supply/demand delta is tighter than folks realize, and could get tighter with Iranian sanctions
  • their target is alternative energy sources (renewables, Canada, unconventional/tight oil) 
Having said that, I think the 7th listed possibility is collateral damage. Whether that is Saudi's goal or not, they sure don't mind. 

Update On Confidential Wells in North Dakota

There are approximately 1,787 wells on the confidential list as of today.

About thirty-one (31) of them are salt water disposal wells.

By month, coming off the confidential list:
  • July: 146
  • August: 149
  • September: 166
  • October: 147
  • November: 181
  • December  1 - 13, 2012: 55
Some data may vary from NDIC data (where there are errors, of course, they would be mine).

Previously this year:
  • January: 141
  • February: 129
  • March: 158
  • April: 159
  • May: 149
  • June: 129

Cumulative Oil Production By Formation Through December, 2011 // 2011 North Dakota Oil Production by Formation -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

A reader asked if there was any data on what percentage of wells currently producing in the Williston Basin are "Bakken" wells.  ~ 3,400 "Bakken" wells/6,662 total --> 50%. Approximately 150 wells come off confidential list each month in 2012, and about 130 of them will be "Bakken Pool" wells, gradually pushing the overall percentage up.

Data from NDIC website. This was not a "cut and paste." There could be errors on my part; it has not been proofread or double-checked.

Pool (NDIC designations) and number of wells

Cumulative Oil Production By Formation Through December, 2011 (a total of all wells that have been drilled and produced any amount of oil since 1951. About half of these wells are no longer producing -- see next set of data points).
  • Bakken: 3,578
  • Bakken/Three Forks: 14
  • Birdbear: 171
  • Cambro/Ordovician: 5
  • Dawson Bay: 14
  • Deadwood: 1
  • Devonian: 138
  • Duperow: 344
  • Gunton: 11
  • Heath: 197
  • Interlake: 1
  • Lodgepole: 52
  • Lodgepole/Bakken: 1
  • Madison: 5,523
  • Midale/Nesson: 47
  • Mission Canyon: 1
  • Ordovician: 123
  • Ratcliffe: 4
  • Red River: 708
  • Red River B: 545
  • Red River C: 1
  • Sanish: 84
  • Silurian: 221
  • Souris River: 2
  • Spearfish: 39
  • Spearfish/Charles: 210
  • Spearfish/Madison: 98
  • Stonewall: 124
  • Stony Mountain: 2
  • Three Forks: 4
  • Tyler: 81
  • Tyler A: 7
  • Winnipeg: 3
  • Winnipeg/Deadwood: 6
  • Winnipegosis: 55
Total: 12,415

 2011 North Dakota Oil Production by Formation (these are wells that were active at least at some point during the 2011 calendar year and produced at least a barrel of oil).
  • Bakken: 3,345
  • Bakken/Three Forks: 9
  • Birdbear: 102
  • Cambro/Ordovician: 2
  • Dawson Bay: 3
  • Deadwood: 0
  • Devonian: 55
  • Duperow: 112
  • Gunton: 2
  • Heath: 38
  • Interlake: 0
  • Lodgepole: 34
  • Lodgepole/Bakken: 0
  • Madison: 2,051
  • Midale/Nesson: 42
  • Mission Canyon: 1
  • Ordovician: 50
  • Ratcliffe: 4
  • Red River: 183
  • Red River B: 272
  • Red River C: 0
  • Sanish: 44
  • Silurian: 48
  • Souris River: 0
  • Spearfish: 26
  • Spearfish/Charles: 97
  • Spearfish/Madison: 38
  • Stonewall: 44
  • Stony Mountain: 1
  • Three Forks: 1
  • Tyler: 37
  • Tyler A: 2
  • Winnipeg: 0
  • Winnipeg/Deadwood: 2
  • Winnipegosis: 17
Total: 6,662

How Good Is The Bakken? -- The Apache Perspective

Don alerted me to this information on the recent Apache presentation. Click here for the PDF.

How good is the Bakken?

In its most recent presentation, Apache presents data of its plays. The data is below. I did not include Kenya Deepwater (like New Zealand and Cook Inlet, no data available, at least that I could).

I assume that as Whiting's Three Forks data from the southwest area of North Dakota comes in, the EUR will improve, as will the ROR. The Three Forks wells from the Sanish, farther north in North Dakota, have not been as impressive as the middle Bakken.

The Liard Basin is a natural as play. Look at the cost of those wells (cost in million of dollars).

I believe the data below is correct, but it is not a cut and paste from the Apache presentation, so there could be errors.

PlayCost ($mm)EURROR
Liard Basin35.466 bcfn/a
Vaca Muerta Oil11.4329 mboe17%
Mississippi Lime3.5320 mboe65%
WB Middle Bakken7.6670 mboe106%
WB Three Forks7.6377 mboe37%
New Zealandn/an/an/a
Cook Inletn/an/an/a

More Good News for the Bakken -- Another Oil Play Taken Off-Line

The French have taken off-shore French Guyana off-line.

McKenzie County: Heart of the Action in the Bakken

As noted many times on the blog, McKenzie County, based on number of active rigs, is the most active county for drilling in 2012.
McKenzie County, with 63 rigs, topp[s] the list as the county with the highest number of drillings rigs actively working in the state, followed by Mountrail and Williams with 40 rigs each, and Dunn, with 35.
Link here to Minot Daily News.

Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- For the Bakken, Skip and Scroll

This is why I enjoy the blogging community so much. Anyone can do it, and there are so many interesting blogs out there.

This is yet another great site I never would have found without Drudge Report. Incredible.

Perhaps, before going to the blog, you should read a bit of the background.

The photojournalist appears to be attending a middle school in Scotland. Don't you just love the Scots. Elsewhere I've blogged about this incredible country and their people.

Her blog has gone "viral." Look at the counter at her web page.

As Predicted -- China Building Stockpiles

Link here to Bloomberg.

I have posted this several times: as the price of oil comes down, China is buying it up as fast as it can absorb it.
China is hoarding crude at the fastest rate since the Beijing Olympics four years ago as the slump in international prices prompts it to import unprecedented volumes even as refining slows.

The world's second-biggest oil consumer built up a surplus of about 90 million barrels of crude in the first five months of the year, government data show. The excess, the most since the run-up to the 2008 games,  ...

China, which imports more than half its crude, is constructing about 200 million barrels of storage capacity in the second stage of a plan for strategic reserves to help it manage price swings. Overseas purchases rose to a record last month even as processing by refiners including China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and PetroChina Co. slackened. 
And even with this frenetic buildup, Bloomberg says the country is behind the curve on their stored reserves. Interesting.

Tax Receipts, 2011: North Dakota Taxable Sales Keep Setting Records

Some numbers rounded.

Link to InsideClimate News/Dickinson Press.
The clear standout is Williston, which surpassed Fargo in total taxable sales and purchases in 2011 by $100 million, Fong said. Fargo’s total was $2.4 billion compared to Williston’s $2.5 billion. Williston had 88.5 percent growth from 2010 to 2011.
Once upon a time, $100 million in tax receipts for Williston would have been a good year. Now, that is the delta between Fargo, North Dakota's largest city by far, and Williston, the smallest of the major ND cities. 

Some data points:
  • year-over-year, North Dakota's tax receipts increased 40%
  • North Dakota's tax receipts in 2011: $20 billion
  • Ray: 635% (Ray is a bit northeast of Williston)
  • Williston: 90% y-o-y increase
  • Dickinson: 50%
  • Minot: 40%
  • Jamestown: 16%
  • Fargo: 10%
Pretty incredible.

Link to Williston Herald with same story

WSJ Wrap-Up -- For the Bakken, Skip and Scroll

Still updating.

1. Wow, this is interesting, p. B1: "Nokia's Problems Haunt Microsoft."
Nokia Corp. warned Thursday that its cellphone business is quickly deteriorating and that it will cut 10,000 workers, a setback that threatens partner Microsoft Corp.'s mobile aspirations.

The companies bound themselves together last year in a last-ditch effort to compete in a smartphone market dominated by Apple Inc. and Google Inc. Now, Microsoft faces the possibility that the company responsible for two-thirds of its mobile software shipments may not be strong enough to give it influence in mobile computing.
Yes, seriously, is anyone waiting to buy the next Nokia smartphone?
Until this year, Nokia enjoyed a 14-year-run as the world's largest maker of mobile phones. But the company raised new doubts about its future Thursday by warning its losses will be worse than it expected just two months ago. It would not predict when the losses might end.

The news sent Nokia's shares down 16% to $2.35 in New York trading, the lowest point since 1996. Nokia has lost more than three-quarters of its market value since Chief Executive Stephen Elop arrived in September 2010 and decided to bet the company on phones powered by Microsoft's operating system. 
Hindsight is 20/20. Back in 2010, the decision to go with Microsoft certainly made sense. Apple drives a hard bargain. My hunch is that Microsoft offered much better financial terms and promised a better relationship.

Some numbers (some rounding):
  • Nokia's mobile devices division employs 53,000 people. It has announced it will cut 24,000 jobs
  • rival Motorola, bought last month by Google, employs 20,500
  • Nokia shipped 2 million Lumias worldwide (according to Nokia) 1Q12
  • same period: Apple shipped 35 million iPhones
  • Nokia's biggest market, Europe: Nokia 1 million units; Android, 15.5; iPhones, 7; and, Blackberrys, 2.5 million
  • Microsoft's operating system for phones sixth place, at 2.6% of world market
And then there were two: Google's Android and Apple's iPhone.

 2. ZocDoc, p. C10: "doing for doctors and dentists what Priceline did for travel. The company puts medical professionals' calendars on-line. Folks can make own appointments on-line. For the consumer, free. For the medical professionals. $3,000. Booking only two extra appointments/month on average covers the cost of the service. Back-of-the-envelope: $3,000/24 --> $125/visit margin? Hmmmm.

3. And that's about it. A lot of great reading but nothing much for the blog. Sorry.

Natural Gas and the COT -- RBN Energy

Link here to RBN Energy  -- today, RBN discusses natural gas and the  Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT).

Energy Links at Independent Stock Analysis

Link here to ISA.