Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Floods Of Winters-Past -- Vern Whitten Slide Shows -- March 19, 2019

The floods in the midwest this year?

Vern Whitten reminds us of these floods:
To contact Vern regarding these photographs or more recent photos of the Bakken:
Vern Whitten Photography
(701) 261-7658


How High Is The Water, Momma? Johnny Cash

Sixty-Six Rigs; Six New Permits; WTI Just Under $60 -- March 19, 2019

API weekly crude oil inventory: "surprise" draw. Link here. A draw of 2.133 million bbls; forecast? A build of 309,000 bbls.

WTI: did not break through psychological ceiling of $60.

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66584732107

Six new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (5); Whiting
  • Fields: Capa (Williams); Alkali Creek (Williams); Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has permits for a 5-well Allie pad in Alkali Creek/Capa , section 24-155-95
    • Whiting has a permit for a Sorenson well in lot 4, section 3-152-91, Big Bend oil field
Four permits renewed:
  • Whiting (3): three Roggenbuck permits in Mountrail County 
  • Sinclair: a Nelson permit in Mountrail County
SIx producing wells (DUCs reported as completed):
  • 34157, 728, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35H2, Bear Creek, t2/19; cum --;
  • 34159, 277, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35GXH, Bear Creek, t2/19; cum --;
  • 34161, 490, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35G2, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34160, 85, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35F, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34158, 336, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35D, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34160, 320, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35C, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum --; 

Sloop John B, Brian Wilson, Al Jardine, 2016

Tuesday, March 19, 2019, T+76, Part 2

SRE: declares dividend of 96.75 cents/share -- link here --
  • Sempra Energy declares $0.9675/share quarterly dividend, 8.1% increase from prior dividend of $0.895
  • forward yield 3.29% 
  • payable April 15; for shareholders of record March 22; ex-div March 21
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial or investment decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AAPL: prediction -- AAPL increases its current dividend from 73 cents/share to 85 cents/share (payable May, 2019). This is a prediction only. I've not see anyone else predict AAPL's next dividend increase, but, then again, I have not looked very hard. Motley Fool suggests a 10% increase "near" the middle of the CY19. That would take the dividend to 80 cents/share.

The Book Page

From A History of China, John Keay, c. 2009. Author lives in Argyll, Scotland.

When [Beiping] was finally overrun by Ming in 1381/82, among those captured was an intelligent eleven-year-old Muslim called Ma He. Castrated, dispatched to Beiping and taken on to the household staff of one of the first Ming emperor's sons, Ma He would become the most trusted confidant of the prince; the prince eventually became emperor; and thus would a Yannanese Muslim eunuch find himself entrusted with the command of China's greatest maritime enterprise. -- pp. 372 - 372.

Nanjing never entirely recovered.... the emperor would spend little time there. He preferred Beiping, which he immediately renames Beijing ("Northern Capital"), and which in 1424 he would adopt as the supreme Ming capital. Nanjing meanwhile acquired a different distinction. In 1403 the new emperor announced his intention of dispatching a fleet to the "the countries of the Western Ocean." The largest vessels in this fleet, indeed in the world at that time, were constructed on the Qinhuai River where meets the Yangzi at Nanking. Others would follow, making Nanjing, for the next three decades, the shipbuilding capital of the world's greatest maritime power. For with the 1405 departure of Admiral Zheng He in command of China's first world armada, the Ming were poised not just to emulate Khubilia Khan's overseas adventures but sensationally to upstage them. -- p. 375

But according to the Standard Histories, there was no great example of wanton extravagance than the series of voyages that the Yongle emperor ordered Zheng He, his trusty Yunnanese Muslim eunuch, to conduct into "the Western [or Indian] Ocean."

There were seven such voyages, six of them ordered by the Yongle emperor himself between 1405 and 1421, plus one [voyage] of 1431 that was an afterthought by an admiring successor. All were commanded by Zheng He; each included between 100 and 300 ships carrying in total up to 27,000 men; and of these ships, around fifty were usually "treasure ships," colossal constructions about five times the size of any wooden vessel built elsewhere in the world at the time and ten times the capacity. -- pp. 379 - 380, and then much more through page 387.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019, T+76, Part 1

Frack sand: the story everyone got wrong. See RBN Energy at this post. Everyone got this story wrong. Even RBN Energy, I think, talked about the risk of a frack sand shortage but I don't remember. I fell for the story, hook, line, and sinker -- fortunately never invested in any frack sand company as far as I can recall. If I did, it was a short-term trade, but I honestly can't remember. I don't think I did. Again, free market capitalism comes through. Can you imagine how "central planning" would have affected frack sand?

Suicide: perhaps the most interesting story, for so many reasons, the article from The Wall Street Journal, yesterday, "Obama economic advisor Alan Krueger dead at 58, suicide." Data points:
  • top labor-market expert and former chairman of Council of Economic Advisers, suicide according to family statement
  • one of the nation's most influential labor-market experts
  • wrote papers on topics including rock 'n' roll concerts, roots of terrorism
  • a chief economist at the Labor Department during the Clinton administration
  • examined the impact of a state-level minimum-wage increase in New Jersey by comparing fast-food employment there to neighboring Pennsylvania; finding -- the minimum-wage increase did nto reduce employment; challenged a long-held assumption in economics
  • first person to teach there is nothing more painful for an unemployed person to do than search for a job
  • [I can't recall if I've posted that before but I've argued that the most important thing for a man is work; work defines a man -- and I'm being sexist there -- specifically saying "man" and not "men and women"]
  • it is ironic that a man whose center of study and concern was his contention that there is nothing more painful for an unemployed person to do than search for a job and yet this individual worked for a president who seemed oblivious to this, not concerned about putting people out of work
  • on the other hand, we now have a president whose main domestic concern is getting people back to work
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial or investment decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Sports: I don't think I've ever watched a more miserable NBA team than the current Dallas Mavericks. I'm not saying there are not worst teams; I'm saying that I've never watched a more miserable NBA team; they are pathetic. Last night's home game again the New Orleans Pelicans -- another loss. On another note, Dirk made four points in last night's loss to the Pelicans but that moved him ahead of Wilt Chamberlain in the NBA all-time scoring record.

The market, futures: up almost 120 points -- these are pre-market --
  • WTI: holding its recent gains; remarkable;
  • D: down 1%
  • Tesla, down 1%; could open below $267/share
  • XLNX,  up slightly;
  • UNP,  --
  • AAPL, up slightly;
  • RDS-B, --
  • CVX, --
  • COP, --
  • BRK-B, --
  • NOG, up slightly in pre-market trading; we don't often see NOG trading pre-market;
  • OAS, --
  • EOG, --
  • EW, -- 
  • JAG, down slightly in pre-market trading; we don't often see JAG trading pre-market;
Oilprice: now talking about the "perfect storm" resulting in higher prices for oil.


Dakota, The Shadows

Looking For $60-WTI Today -- March 19, 2019; Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List

Another busy, busy day:
Carrizo, SM Energy: see link above
  • SM Energy was an early operator in the Bakken boom
  • they often said they were in the Bakken for the long term; built a beautiful new HQ building north of Williston; shortly after that, moved out of the Bakken, moving to the Permian
  • the Permian was very, very expensive to enter; probably bit off more than they could chew, as they say
  • in hindsight, probably should have kept their Bakken assets
Gasoline: prices surging -- at least in Miami. Some data points:
  • prices jumped about 15 cents week-over-week in Miami
  • summer blend 
  • but same price as last year
  • national gas price: $2.54; 23 cents more than last month
  • state with largest jump in gasoline price: Kentucky; second: Florida
  • least expensive market in US for gasoline:
    • South Carolina: $2.30
    • Mississippi: $2.30
    • Arkansas: $2.30
    • Alabama: $2.30
    • Utah: $2.31
    • Missouri: $2.32
    • Texas: $2.32
    • Wyoming: $2.32
    • Louisiana: $2.33
    • New Mexico: $2.33
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, March 19, 2019: 88 wells for the month; 308 wells for the quarter

  • 35013, SI/NC, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35HW, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 35012, SI/NC, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35HA, Squaw Creek, no production data,  
  • 34798, 1,023, Kraken, The Kraken LE 24-13 1TFH, Brooklyn (technically an Epping well); t10/18; cum 103K 1/19;
  • 34797, 1,253, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 10H, Epping, t10/18; cum 109K 1/19;
  • 34796, 1,566, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 9TFH, Epping, t10/18; cum 87K 1/19;
  • 33658, 903, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 5B, Banks,t10/18; cum 132K 1/19;
  • 32896, 129 CLR, Colter 13-14H1, Bear Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 32813, 1,978, CLR, State Weydahl 9-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 94K 1/19;
  • 31802, 2,238, CLR, Jensen 6-8H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 77K 1/19;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs65584732107

RBN Energy: everything has changed -- the frack sand revolution. Archived.
The U.S. frack sand market has been turned on its head. Over the past three years, demand for the sand used in hydraulic fracturing has more than doubled, dozens of new “local” sand mines have been popping up within the Permian and other fast-growing plays, and frack sand prices have fallen sharply from their 2017 highs. The big changes don’t end there. Exploration and production companies (E&Ps), who traditionally left sand procurement to the pressure pumping companies that complete their wells, are taking a more hands-on approach. And everyone is super-focused on optimizing their “last-mile” frack sand logistics — the delivery of sand by truck, plus unloading and storage of sand at the well site — with an eye toward minimizing completion costs and maximizing productivity. Today, we begin a blog series on the major upheavals rocking the frack sand world in 2019.

We’ve said it time and again: the Shale Revolution would not have been possible without sand­­ — and lots of it. Way back in 2012, we explained that freeing the vast amounts of oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) trapped in shale and tight sands requires horizontal drilling to access the long, pancaked layers where trapped hydrocarbons reside, as well as proppants (natural sand, ceramics and resin-coated sand) that, when forced out of the laterals at high pressure (using water and other fluids), fracture openings in the surrounding shale/tight sands. When the pressure is released, the fractures attempt to close but the proppant contained in the fluids keeps them open, making a ready path for oil, gas and NGLs to flow into the well bore.
Then, we discussed how the trend toward much longer laterals and high-intensity well completions caused demand — and prices — for Northern White Sand (NWS) from the Upper Midwest (long the preferred sand type) to soar. That helped spur the development of new, local sand mines in the Permian (and the Eagle Ford, SCOOP/STACK and the Haynesville) to help meet rising frack sand demand and to reduce sand transportation costs by eliminating the cost of long-distance rail shipments and rail-to-truck transloading.
Most recently, we looked at — among other things — the still-rising volumes of sand being used per well, the development of more local sand mines, and the steps that an increasing number of E&Ps were taking to become more involved in sand procurement.The Permian already has transformed its sand sourcing.
Our understanding is that nearly 90% of the frack sand being used right now every day in the Permian is coming from local sand mines — few of which were in operation two years ago. Figure 2 shows the 20 existing sand mines in the Permian region (red boxes) and how their locations relate to the array of drilling rigs now active in the Permian’s Delaware Basin (blue triangles on left side of map) and Midland Basin (blue triangles on right side).
The Book Page

From The Landmark Arrian: The Campaigns of Alexander, edited by James Romm
  • the battle of Gaugamela (from wiki: Battle of Gaugamela, also called Battle of Arbela, October 1, 331 BC); the battle in which Alexander the Great completed his conquest of Darius III's Persian Empire. It was an extraordinary victory achieved against a numerically superior army on ground chosen by the Persians.
  • in round numbers:
    • the Persians: 1.2 million men
    • Alexander the Great's army: 50,000 men
  • The Persian army, led by King Darius, was marshaled in the following order:
    • the order of the left wing up to the middle of the entire phalanx:
      • the left wing was held by the Bactrian cavalry, the Dahae, and the Arachosians
      • the Persians were posted next (their cavalry and infantry mixed together)
      • next tot hem, the Susians
      • then, the Kadousioi
    • on the right:
      • the contingents from Hollow Syria and Mesopotamia
      • the Medes
      • next came the Parthians and Sacae
      • then the Tapourians and Hyrcanians
      • finally, the Albanoi and Sakesenia, at the middle of phalanx on the right
    • the center:
      • King Darius, the King's kinsmen
      • the Persian Apple Bearers
      • the Indians
      • the so-called displaced Carians
      • the Mardian archers
    • behind, in deep formation:
      • the Ouxioi, Babylonians, Red Sea tribes, and Sittacenians
    • in front of the left wing, facing Alexander's right:
      • the Scythian cavalry with a thousand Bactrians
      • a hundred scythe-bearing chariots
    • the elephants were posted in front of the royal squadron, along with fifty chariots
    • in front of the right wing:
      • the Armenian and Cappadocian cavalry
      • fifty scythe-bearing chariots
    • and most interesting:
      • the Greek mercenaries were stationed on either side of Darius and the Persians, opposite the Macedonian phalanx, on the assumption that these were the only contingents that could effectively count the Macedonians
  • Meanwhile, Alexander's army was marshaled in the following order:
    • the right wing:
      • the Companion cavalry, led by Philotas
      • in front of the Companion cavalry: the royal squadron under Kleitos, son of Dropides
      • next to Kelitos' squadron: the squadrons of Glaukias, Ariston, Sopolis, Herakleides, Demetrios, Mcleagros and Hegelokhos, in that order
    • in the Macedonian phalanx: 
      • the agema of the shield-bearers was posted right beside the cavalry
      • beside them stood the rest of the shield-bearers under Nikanor
      • next to the shield-bearers stood the battalions of Perdikkas, another-named Meleagros, Polyperkhon, and Amyntas
    • left wing:
      • the battalion of Krateros son of Alexander; Krateros himself had command of the infantry on the left
      • next to the infantry on the left, the allied cavalry under Eriguios
      • beside that cavalry, stood the Thessalian horsemen under Philip son of Menelaos 
    • Parmenion commanded the entire left wing; around him stood the Pharsalian horsemen, the strongest and largest contingent of the Thessalian cavalry
    • that was the front line
    • but Alexander also posted a second line, so that the phalanx could become double-fronted
    • this second line:
      • the Agrianians, under Attalos, next to the royal squadron on the right wing
      • the Macedonian archers under Brison
      • beside these archers, the so-called old mercenaries under Kleandros
      • in front of the Agrianians and the archers stood the mounted Scouts and the Paionians
      • in front of all these contingents, the mercenary cavalry
      • half the Agrianians and archers had been posted with Balakros' javelin men in front of the royal squadron and the scythe-bearing chariots
      • that was the right wing
    • left wing, briefly:
      • the Thracians
      • the allied cavalry under Koiranos
      • the Odrysian cavalry
      • the foreign mercenary cavalry under Andromakhos
      • the Thracian infantry posted as a guard for the baggage train
  • in all, Alexander's entire army
    • 7,000 cavalry
    • 40,000 infantry
  • and the Persians: a much superior number
    • nearly 40,000 cavalry
    • a million infantry
    • 200 scythe-bearing chariots
    • a modest number of elephants 
    • another 15 elephants led by Indians from west of the Indus
  • The battle:
    • Alexander prevailed
    • Alexander's losses: nearly 100 of Alexander's men perished; more than a thousand horse died, almost half of these belonged to the Companion cavalry
    • the Persians' loss:
    • nearly 300,000 corpses counted
    • but far more men were captured than killed
    • the elephants were captured as were all the chariots that had not been shattered in battle 

Taking Notes