Looking For $60-WTI Today -- March 19, 2019; Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List

Another busy, busy day:

• RBN Energy's frack sand story below
• Carrizo, SM Energy in talks to merge -- Rigzone
• Equinor may be mulling Eagle Ford sale -- Rigzone
• we haven't heard from Michael Filloon in a long, long time -- SeekingAlpha
• API weekly crude oil inventory data late this afternoon

Carrizo, SM Energy: see link above

• SM Energy was an early operator in the Bakken boom
• they often said they were in the Bakken for the long term; built a beautiful new HQ building north of Williston; shortly after that, moved out of the Bakken, moving to the Permian
• the Permian was very, very expensive to enter; probably bit off more than they could chew, as they say
• in hindsight, probably should have kept their Bakken assets

Gasoline: prices surging -- at least in Miami. Some data points:

• prices jumped about 15 cents week-over-week in Miami
• summer blend 
• but same price as last year
• national gas price: $2.54; 23 cents more than last month
• state with largest jump in gasoline price: Kentucky; second: Florida
• least expensive market in US for gasoline:
• South Carolina: $2.30
• Mississippi: $2.30
• Arkansas: $2.30
• Alabama: $2.30
• Utah: $2.31
• Missouri: $2.32
• Texas: $2.32
• Wyoming: $2.32
• Louisiana: $2.33
• New Mexico: $2.33

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, March 19, 2019: 88 wells for the month; 308 wells for the quarter

• 35013, SI/NC, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35HW, Squaw Creek, no production data,
• 35012, SI/NC, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35HA, Squaw Creek, no production data,  
• 34798, 1,023, Kraken, The Kraken LE 24-13 1TFH, Brooklyn (technically an Epping well); t10/18; cum 103K 1/19;
• 34797, 1,253, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 10H, Epping, t10/18; cum 109K 1/19;
• 34796, 1,566, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 9TFH, Epping, t10/18; cum 87K 1/19;
• 33658, 903, Oasis, Berquist 5298 11-27 5B, Banks,t10/18; cum 132K 1/19;
• 32896, 129 CLR, Colter 13-14H1, Bear Creek, t--; cum --;
• 32813, 1,978, CLR, State Weydahl 9-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 94K 1/19;
• 31802, 2,238, CLR, Jensen 6-8H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 77K 1/19;

Active rigs:

$59.79	3/19/2019	03/19/2018	03/19/2017	03/19/2016	03/19/2015
Active Rigs	65	58	47	32	107

RBN Energy: everything has changed -- the frack sand revolution. Archived.

The U.S. frack sand market has been turned on its head. Over the past three years, demand for the sand used in hydraulic fracturing has more than doubled, dozens of new “local” sand mines have been popping up within the Permian and other fast-growing plays, and frack sand prices have fallen sharply from their 2017 highs. The big changes don’t end there. Exploration and production companies (E&Ps), who traditionally left sand procurement to the pressure pumping companies that complete their wells, are taking a more hands-on approach. And everyone is super-focused on optimizing their “last-mile” frack sand logistics — the delivery of sand by truck, plus unloading and storage of sand at the well site — with an eye toward minimizing completion costs and maximizing productivity. Today, we begin a blog series on the major upheavals rocking the frack sand world in 2019.

We’ve said it time and again: the Shale Revolution would not have been possible without sand­­ — and lots of it. Way back in 2012, we explained that freeing the vast amounts of oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) trapped in shale and tight sands requires horizontal drilling to access the long, pancaked layers where trapped hydrocarbons reside, as well as proppants (natural sand, ceramics and resin-coated sand) that, when forced out of the laterals at high pressure (using water and other fluids), fracture openings in the surrounding shale/tight sands. When the pressure is released, the fractures attempt to close but the proppant contained in the fluids keeps them open, making a ready path for oil, gas and NGLs to flow into the well bore.

Then, we discussed how the trend toward much longer laterals and high-intensity well completions caused demand — and prices — for Northern White Sand (NWS) from the Upper Midwest (long the preferred sand type) to soar. That helped spur the development of new, local sand mines in the Permian (and the Eagle Ford, SCOOP/STACK and the Haynesville) to help meet rising frack sand demand and to reduce sand transportation costs by eliminating the cost of long-distance rail shipments and rail-to-truck transloading.

Most recently, we looked at — among other things — the still-rising volumes of sand being used per well, the development of more local sand mines, and the steps that an increasing number of E&Ps were taking to become more involved in sand procurement.The Permian already has transformed its sand sourcing.

Our understanding is that nearly 90% of the frack sand being used right now every day in the Permian is coming from local sand mines — few of which were in operation two years ago. Figure 2 shows the 20 existing sand mines in the Permian region (red boxes) and how their locations relate to the array of drilling rigs now active in the Permian’s Delaware Basin (blue triangles on left side of map) and Midland Basin (blue triangles on right side).

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The Book Page

From The Landmark Arrian: The Campaigns of Alexander, edited by James Romm

• the battle of Gaugamela (from wiki: Battle of Gaugamela, also called Battle of Arbela, October 1, 331 BC); the battle in which Alexander the Great completed his conquest of Darius III's Persian Empire. It was an extraordinary victory achieved against a numerically superior army on ground chosen by the Persians.
• in round numbers:
• the Persians: 1.2 million men
• Alexander the Great's army: 50,000 men
• The Persian army, led by King Darius, was marshaled in the following order:
• the order of the left wing up to the middle of the entire phalanx:
• the left wing was held by the Bactrian cavalry, the Dahae, and the Arachosians
• the Persians were posted next (their cavalry and infantry mixed together)
• next tot hem, the Susians
• then, the Kadousioi
• on the right:
• the contingents from Hollow Syria and Mesopotamia
• the Medes
• next came the Parthians and Sacae
• then the Tapourians and Hyrcanians
• finally, the Albanoi and Sakesenia, at the middle of phalanx on the right
• the center:
• King Darius, the King's kinsmen
• the Persian Apple Bearers
• the Indians
• the so-called displaced Carians
• the Mardian archers
• behind, in deep formation:
• the Ouxioi, Babylonians, Red Sea tribes, and Sittacenians
• in front of the left wing, facing Alexander's right:
• the Scythian cavalry with a thousand Bactrians
• a hundred scythe-bearing chariots
• the elephants were posted in front of the royal squadron, along with fifty chariots
• in front of the right wing:
• the Armenian and Cappadocian cavalry
• fifty scythe-bearing chariots
• and most interesting:
• the Greek mercenaries were stationed on either side of Darius and the Persians, opposite the Macedonian phalanx, on the assumption that these were the only contingents that could effectively count the Macedonians
• Meanwhile, Alexander's army was marshaled in the following order:
• the right wing:
• the Companion cavalry, led by Philotas
• in front of the Companion cavalry: the royal squadron under Kleitos, son of Dropides
• next to Kelitos' squadron: the squadrons of Glaukias, Ariston, Sopolis, Herakleides, Demetrios, Mcleagros and Hegelokhos, in that order
• in the Macedonian phalanx: 
• the agema of the shield-bearers was posted right beside the cavalry
• beside them stood the rest of the shield-bearers under Nikanor
• next to the shield-bearers stood the battalions of Perdikkas, another-named Meleagros, Polyperkhon, and Amyntas
• left wing:
• the battalion of Krateros son of Alexander; Krateros himself had command of the infantry on the left
• next to the infantry on the left, the allied cavalry under Eriguios
• beside that cavalry, stood the Thessalian horsemen under Philip son of Menelaos 
• Parmenion commanded the entire left wing; around him stood the Pharsalian horsemen, the strongest and largest contingent of the Thessalian cavalry
• that was the front line
• but Alexander also posted a second line, so that the phalanx could become double-fronted
• this second line:
• the Agrianians, under Attalos, next to the royal squadron on the right wing
• the Macedonian archers under Brison
• beside these archers, the so-called old mercenaries under Kleandros
• in front of the Agrianians and the archers stood the mounted Scouts and the Paionians
• in front of all these contingents, the mercenary cavalry
• half the Agrianians and archers had been posted with Balakros' javelin men in front of the royal squadron and the scythe-bearing chariots
• that was the right wing
• left wing, briefly:
• the Thracians
• the allied cavalry under Koiranos
• the Odrysian cavalry
• the foreign mercenary cavalry under Andromakhos
• the Thracian infantry posted as a guard for the baggage train
• in all, Alexander's entire army
• 7,000 cavalry
• 40,000 infantry
• and the Persians: a much superior number
• nearly 40,000 cavalry
• a million infantry
• 200 scythe-bearing chariots
• a modest number of elephants 
• another 15 elephants led by Indians from west of the Indus
• The battle:
• Alexander prevailed
• Alexander's losses: nearly 100 of Alexander's men perished; more than a thousand horse died, almost half of these belonged to the Companion cavalry
• the Persians' loss:
• nearly 300,000 corpses counted
• but far more men were captured than killed
• the elephants were captured as were all the chariots that had not been shattered in battle 

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Taking Notes