Monday, April 12, 2021

EIA April, 2021, Dashboards Have Posted

The April, 2021, EIA dashboards have been posted:

The graphics:



The Bakken and the Permian show almost no change month-over-month. Interestingly enough, the Eagle Ford showed the "biggest" change, albeit trivial in the big scheme of things. It surprised me because so many writers / analysts have suggested the Eagle Ford is the fastest declining oil field in the country. 

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Did It Ever Get Any Better Than This?

For The Archives: Snapshots In Time -- April 12, 2021

US oil production still two million bpd under pre-pandemic levels. Link to Julianne Geiger, oilprice.  

The EIA’s Monthly Drilling Productivity Report is forecasting that for the nation’s most prolific basin, the Permian, production will return to 4.466 million barrels per day in May.

That compares to 3.918 million bpd in May 2020—but that was hardly prior to the pandemic. In January 2020, the Permian basin’s average oil production was 4.793 million bpd. This means that oil production in the Permian Basin is down 327,000 bpd, or 7% under January levels.

4.8 vs 4.5. I just can't get too excited.

Coincidentally, moments after I posted this link/story, it was noted that the EIA had posted the April, 2021, "dashboards."

Moving on. 

Big Oil's dwindling reserves are a major problem. Link here to Cyril Widdershoven over at oilprice. I think I've been reading "these stories" or variations thereof over the past several decades. During the Jimmy Carter administration it was downright dire. 

Even before reading the article, I was thinking -- this is going to be a "money" story -- financial, economic, business -- and not a scientific, geologic story. And it was. This is the nub:

As demand recovers and oil prices climb, there are plenty of potential financial windfalls in 2021 for these companies to take advantage of. 
The question remains, however, over whether or not the companies will invest in new production and reserves or will they use it to pay dividends
Some analysts have already claimed that the current reserve crisis is no real issue, as most IOCs are going through an energy-transition phase. 
However, to invest in the energy transition these companies need plenty of cash to cope with the planned multi-billion-dollar wind, solar, and hydrogen projects, while also keeping investors and shareholders happy. 
As stated by Citibank, “the latest words from an IOC board chairman, ‘Black pays for green’, refer to the 80% of the CFFO (cash flow from operations) generated from oil and gas activities, which is expected to be above 70% by 2030.” 
If reserves are not high enough to sustain “normal” oil and gas operations, the time frame for energy transition success then becomes a major issue too. 

Again, this seems to be a typical "business" dilemma. Warren Buffett addressed it by simply not paying dividends. Much more to the story, of course. But, wow, how things have changed, comparing the current energy situation with that during the Carter administration, and even the Barack "we can't drill our way to cheaper oil" Obama administration. We're so over-supplied with fossil fuel the US has the luxury of shutting down pipelines even after they’ve been built and are safely transporting oil. 

What a great country.

How The DAPL Decison Will Play Out -- April 12, 2021

Where we stand on the DAPL and projections:

Friday, April 9, 2021:

  • US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 13, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 14, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 15, 2021:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Saturday, April 15, 2021;

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Meanwhile, In South Dakota

South Dakota's attorney general has been selected for promotion to colonel in the US Army reserves. Link here.

Reader Reads The DAPL Tea Leaves -- April 12, 2021

From a reader, highly edited to maintain anonymity. If the reader does not want this posted, let me know and I will remove:

The tea leaves suggest President Biden won’t step on ND DAPL after dealings with MHA Nation chief Mark Fox who went from 2016 NODAPL to current PRODAPL since 50% of MHA production rides DAPL. 
 
Mark wrote letter for Biden administration, gave to Ness in ND & legislators but not sure it went to DC. 
 
My gut says since MHA got Federal lease exception for 7 ND counties he may have stirred up Biden-American-Indian-appointed staff to push for keeping DAPL OPEN. 
 
Fox has been in Bismarck making his case for new taxes on MHA reservation oil, federal lease exemptions he secured, and keeping DAPL OPEN. Ron Ness wanted his DAPL letter sent to Biden, I read recently. 

Who knows but sounds more positive imho.

More than a dozen of our ND operators use DAPL so I’m hopeful.

The MAG 1 well & some other (JROC1) stratigraphic testing locations appear to be getting ready for EOR to come full circle. I hope to find out more on my upcoming trip to ND, soon. We have multiple tracts around MAG 1 within a stone's throw, as they say. Of course I’m highly exuberant about the Basin in ND.

NARO (National Association of Royalty Owners)

No in-person ND NARO meeting this June. NARO will be virtual per ND NARO president (e-mail). Virtual meeting to be announced. Oklahoma has October NARO in person.

Hopefully "the judge" is listening.  

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Michele Chiarlo

Link here.  

Some say it is the best dessert wine in the world. 

I will let you know my thoughts later. 

Later:

Nivole.


My wife said it was the best dessert wine she had ever tasted. It will now be here "go-to" dessert wine. LOL.

I would agree -- for a dessert wine, top shelf.

But for sipping while watching reruns of Columbo: Gater Bite is still my go-to ...

... and lo and behold, here I am ... watching an old re-run of Columbo -- "The Greenhouse Jungle," season 2, episode 2, October 15, 1972.

The Hess State B Wells In Alger Oil Field

Six new permits, as of April 12, 2021, #38253 - #38268, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess:
  • Field: Alger
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for six more EN-State B wells in SWSE 4-155-93;

Active wells already sited in this drilling units:

  • 24445, 515, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-2, Alger, t8/13; cum 142K 2/21; off line, 2/21;
  • 24444, 1,050, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-3, Alger, t8/13; cum 194K 2/21; off line, 2/21;
  • 24443, 831, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-4, Alger, t8/13; cum 181K 2/21;
  • 24442, 537, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-5, Alger, t813; cum 148K 6/20; remains off line 2/21;/
  • 18229, 531, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-1, Alger, t8/13; cum 303K 6/20; off line 2/21; small jump in production, 9/13; 

The graphics:



 

WTI Can't Hold Above $60; Active Rig Count Goes To Seventeen -- April 12, 2021

Reminder: "Focus on Fracking" -- this week's edition, posted last night. Link here. I check it every week but sometimes I forget to post the link. Sorry. But the link is up today. 

Saudi: breakeven for Saudi next year -- $65. That would be Brent / OPEC basket, I assume.  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs (see below):

$59.63
4/12/202104/12/202004/12/201904/12/201804/12/2017
Active Rigs1736635951

Six new permits, #38253 - #38268, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess:
  • Field: Alger (Mountrail County)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for six EN-State B wells in SWSE 4-155-93;
    • the wells will be sited 530' FSL and between 2285' and 2120' FEL

Eight permits renewed:

  • CLR: six Breitling permits in Williams County; and two Harrisburg permits in McKenzie County;

Active rigs:

  • CLR (4): Gordon Federal, Rodney, Candee, Harms
  • Marathon (3): Fitterer, Hausauer, Burger USA,
  • Hess (3): GO-Braaten, BL-Frisinger, EN-Rice,
  • Enerplus: Lynx
  • Slawson: Whirlcat Federal,
  • Whiting: Lacey
  • Oasis: Nikolai
  • Petro-Hunt: Hurinenko
  • CPEUSC: CPEUSC Sylven
  • Iron Oil Operating: Madison
RigOperatorWell Name and NumberCurrent LocationCountyFile NoAPIStart Date** Next Location
H & P 515PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.Hurinenko 144-98-2B-11-1HSLOT1 3-144N-98WBIL38181330070192500003/26/2021Undetermined
H & P 456CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.GORDON FEDERAL 2-5H1NESE 6-148N-97WDUN36106330250371300003/30/2021Undetermined
NABORS x10MARATHON OIL COMPANYFITTERER 11-3HLOT4 3-145N-94WDUN37243330250396500004/8/2021Undetermined
H & P 492MARATHON OIL COMPANYHausauer 14-22TFHSWSW 22-145N-94WDUN37387330250399900004/2/2021Undetermined
CYCLONE 38CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.Rodney 14-29HSLNENE 32-147N-96WDUN37408330250401500004/5/2021Undetermined
H & P 454CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.Candee 13-9HSLSESE 9-146N-95WDUN38153330250419100004/6/2021Undetermined
NABORS B13OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLCNikolai Federal 5297 11-6 10BXLOT4 6-152N-97WMCK37624330530945000003/4/2021Undetermined
TRUE 40ENERPLUS RESOURCES USA CORPORATIONLynx 151-94-33C-28HSWSE 33-151N-94WMCK37723330530949100004/8/2021Undetermined
NABORS B27CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.Harms Federal 18-33HSESW 32-153N-93WMCK3798833053096100000* MIRUUndetermined
NOBLE 1IRON OIL OPERATING, LLCMADISON 2-1SENW 2-148N-102WMCK90177330539017700004/9/2021Unknown
NABORS X28HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLCEN-RICE- A-155-94-0310H-4LOT3 3-155N-94WMTL37332330610466300004/6/2021Undetermined
PATTERSON 808WHITING OIL AND GAS CORPORATIONLacey 43-2-2XHNESE 2-152N-92WMTL37855330610482400004/7/2021Undetermined
UNIT 414SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.Whirlcat Federal 5-31-19TFHLOT3 6-151N-92WMTL37920330610483300003/27/2021Undetermined
H & P 259MARATHON OIL COMPANYBURGER USA 41-18TFHNWNE 18-150N-92WMTL37999330610484000004/3/2021Undetermined
NABORS X24HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLCBL-FRISINGER- 156-95-2833H-4NENE 28-156N-95WWIL37130331050537600004/7/2021Undetermined
NABORS B06CRESCENT POINT ENERGY U.S. CORP.CPEUSC Sylven 4-11-2-158N-100W-MBHSESW 11-158N-100WWIL37883331050555800004/9/2021Undetermined
NOBLE 4HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLCGO-BRAATEN- 156-97-2833H-2SESW 21-156N-97WWIL38060331050558100004/12/2021Undetermined

Covid-19 Vaccine -- US Rollout --Update -- April 12, 2021



A

B

C

D

F





Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday

April 12, 2021

237,796,305

200

189,692,045

2,644,914

79.77%

29,904,910

3,214,893

Sunday

April 11, 2021

237,796,105

4,370

187,047,131

3,579,422

78.66%



Saturday

April 10, 2021

237,791,735

4,199,780

183,467,709

4,629,928

77.15%



Friady

April 9, 2021

233,591,955

4,193,270

178,837,781

3,958,065

76.56%



Thursday

April 8, 2021

229,398,685

4,104,250

174,879,716

3,403,061

76.23%



Wednesday

April 7, 2021

225,294,435

6,100,220

171,476,655

2,884,580

76.11%



Tuesday

April 6, 2021

219,194,215

11,302,820

168,592,075

1,404,280

76.91%

 

 

Monday

April 5, 2021

207,891,395

100

167,187,795

2,134,049

80.42%

27,244,830

3,053,566

Sunday

April 4, 2021

207,891,295

24,650

165,053,746

3,365,324

79.39%



Saturday

April 3, 2021

207,866,645

3,147,310

161,688,422

4,081,959

77.78%



Friday

April 2, 2021

204,719,335

4,222,700

157,606,463

3,975,059

76.99%



Thursday 

April 1, 2021

200,496,635

4,914,910

153,631,404

3,358,112

76.63%



Wednesday

March 31, 2021

195,581,725

6,130,440

150,273,292

2,670,947

76.83%



Tuesday 

March 30, 2021

189,451,285

8,804,720

147,602,345

1,789,510

77.91%



Monday

March 29, 2021

180,646,565

100

145,812,835

2,350,144

80.72%

23,912,010

2,757,586

Sunday

March 28, 2021

180,646,465

2,340

143,462,691

3,281,956

79.42%



Saturday 

March 27, 2021

180,644,125

3,142,350

140,180,735

3,496,047

77.60%



Friday

March 26, 2021

177,501,775

3,976,440

136,684,688

3,379,393

77.00%



Thursday 

March 25, 2021

173,525,335

4,302,210

133,305,295

2,831,442

76.82%



Wednesday

March 24, 2021

169,223,125

6,244,285

130,473,853

1,982,059

77.10%

 


Tuesday

March 23, 2021

162,978,840

6,244,285

128,491,795

1,982,059

78.84%



Monday

March 22, 2021

156,734,555

0

126,509,736

2,028,324

80.72%

20,886,720

2,489,697


Johns Hopkins Data

Michigan. Link here. The question: what the hell is going on in Michigan? Why isn't the president acting? First thing we do: divert vaccine going to states that "don't need it" to Michigan. The previous president would have tweeted and his minions would have figured out what was necessary. And then a CDC-eSWAT team -- epidemiology special weapons and tactics team -- needs to be deployed to Michigan immediately to help the state health department. If these things aren't being done, it tells me, things are not as bad as some folks are making them out to be. Let's look at the Johns Hopkins data: link here. Total cases per capita, Michigan ranks 41st, well below the US average which is between Louisiana (29) and Minnesota (30). Deaths per capita, Michigan ranks 20th. I would be curious what the story was regarding nursing homes. Some say the state's policy was like that of New York state. I don't know. But right now, in raw numbers, Michigan ranks #1 in new cases, which is truly amazing, considering its population compared to New York, California, Texas, and Flordia.