Monday, February 18, 2019

CLR Has Permits For A 12-Well Pad In Haystack Butte; Ten DUCs Reported As Completed; Hess With Some Nice Wells -- February 18, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs64564038130

Twelve new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Haystack Butte
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 12-well Gordon Federal pad in NESE 6-148-97, Haystack Butte (see graphics below)
Two permits canceled:
  • Cobra: an NSCU permit and an MMU permit, both in Bottineau County
Six permits renewed:
  • Sinclair (3): two Ersa Federal permits, McKenzie County; and, one Crosby Creek permit, in Dunn
  • EOG (3): three Wayzetta permits, all in Mountrail County
Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34874, n/d, Ravin 3-1HSL1, Dimmick Lake, t--: cum --;
  • 33647, n/d, Omlid 7-19H1, Elidah, t--; cum --;
  • 33463, n/d, Omlid 4-19H, Elidah, t--; cum --;
  • 35015, SI/NC, Nine Point Energy, Gibbins 154-103-11-2-8H, Painted Woods, no production data,
  • 34152, 2,181, Hess, SC-TR Slette-LE-153-98-18H-1, Truax, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34003, 2,794, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-5, Banks, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34002, 1,954, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-4, Banks, t1/19; cum --;
  • 31367, 201, Petro-Hunt, Owl 1-28HS,  Ambrose, t2/19; cum --;
  • 34001, 2,280, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-3, Banks, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34151, 2,774, Hess, SC-TR Slette-153-98-1819H-8, Truax, t1/19; cum --; 
Proposed Location For The CLR 12-Well Gordon Federal Pad

Aerial View:

CLR Posts Its February 2019 Investor Update; CY18 And 4Q18 Financial Results


February 20, 2019: contributor over at SeekingAlpha looks at CLR's 4Q18 and CY18 results. Archived.
  • The company was apparently free cash flow positive and posted $1.0 billion in GAAP net income last year.
  • Rising oil & gas production tax rates in Oklahoma and production expense increases will contend with falling DD&A per BOE expenses according to guidance.
February 19, 2019: earnings were reported after hours yesterday; before earnings came out, CLR was up about 3.5%; this morning, with the overall market down a bit, CLR is down almost 7%.
Original Post
Link here.

From SeekingAlpha, misses on top and bottom line:
  • Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.54 misses by $0.07
  • GAAP EPS of $0.53 misses by $0.07
  • revenue of $1.15B (+9.5% Y/Y) misses by $30 million
Press release.

  • net income, CY18: $988 million; adjusted, $1.07 billion
  • per share: $2.64; adjusted, $2.84
  • total production:
    • 298,190 boepd
      • up 23% yoy
    • 168,177 bopd
      • up 21% yoy
  • debt reduction over one year: $585 million
  • cash build over one year: $239 million
  • production expense per boe: $3.59; 36% reduction in last four years

Off The Net For Awhile -- February 18, 2019

I'm going to be off the net for awhile and do some reading.

The book for the next few weeks, continuing my focus on Los Alamos: The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes, 1986, winner of the Pulitzer Prize; the National Book Award; and, the National Book Critics Circle Award.

I might come back to this very interesting WSJ article on Apple.

I don't know if I will get into global warming or not.


If you aren't following Powerline you are missing this:

The Minta

While reading the first few pages of The Making of the Atomic Bomb, I read that Leo Szilard had "graduated from the Minta in Budapest."

That led me to lesswrong: the atomic bomb considered Hungarian high school science fair project.

A good read.

Peak Oil? Hardly. Bigger Challenge: Right Kind Of Oil -- February 18, 2019

Decades ago when I first started investing in publicly traded oil companies, I did not know to what extent reserves played in how analysts valued an oil company. I might have blogged about that; I'm sure I did.

But times are changing. This report from Bloomberg via Rigzone: energy companies are at increasing risk of "over-investing." To correct that, some majors are rewarding their CEOs on "bang-for-buck" rather than for success in increasing reserves.

Peak oil? What peak oil?

I remember all the hand-wringing in 2014 or thereabouts that oil companies were not investing enough in conventional exploration, that shale oil could not make up the difference, and by 2020, there would be a relative shortage of oil.

The tea leaves suggest there will be no shortage of oil in 2020.

The problem will be the "right" kind of oil. The oil companies had that figured out years ago when they went forward with the Keystone XL. Unfortunately, now the perfect storm:
  • Canada's western Canadian oil sands (heavy oil) remains land-locked
    • the Keystone XL is dead;
    • TransMountain is on life support; and,
    • Enbridge Line 3, is intensive care but likely to survive; however, it won't be nearly enough to make up the shortfall
  • fortunately, CBR is scalable
  • it will be interesting to see if BNSF will be allowed to "assist" in Canadian CBR (I doubt it; I'm sure there are rules and regulations; if not, politics will impede)
  • Venezuela, heavy oil -- we all know that story
  • Mexico, heavy oil -- some think Pemex is doomed and based on policies taken by their newly-elected president, that may be correct
  • Saudi Arabia, heavy-enough oil -- cutting back because it can't make it on $65-oil; needs $80-oil as a minimum; probably $100-oil when you get right down to it
Me? Not a bit worried. The refiners will take a hit on margins and the price of gasoline might go up, but "they" will find ways of getting heavy oil if they need it.

Interestingly enough, in the global hierarchy, the tea leaves suggest that of the three, the UK is in the worst situation for heavy oil; the EU is next; and, finally, the US -- however, the latter will do just fine.

The issue of the "right kind of oil" is nothing new. It's been discussed often on the blog.

A Huge Shout-Out To The NDIC, Bismarck, ND -- February 18, 2019 --Six DUCs Reported As Completed

It's a federal and state holiday but the NDIC posted the IP data for wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend and today; and, now, I see they've posted the daily activity report for Friday, February 15, 2019.

In addition to the five permits reported on Friday, here is the additional data of interest:

Thirteen permits renewed:
  • Petro-Hunt (8): various permits for two different pads in Divide County; in section SWSE 8-163-100 (Jeffrey, Macey, Kade, Kelly); and in section 29-163-99 (Maria, Bob, Laura, and Marlyn)
  • MRO (5): various permits all for section NENW 28-151-93 in Mountrail County (Gerhardt USA, Salveson USA, Verne USA, McRoberts USA, and Hanlon USA)
Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported; one remains SI/NC:
  • 34248, 33, BR, Raider 1C UTFH, Twin Valley, t1/19; cum --;
  • 34249, 32, BR, Raider 1B MBH, Twin Valley, t1/19; cum --;
  • 35463, SI/NC, Whiting, Urban 44-11-6H, East Fork, t--; cum --;
  • 32313, 504, XTO, Sonya 11X-18B, Hofflund, t11/18; cum 10K 12/18 (25 days)
  • 32311, 556, XTO, Sonya Federal 11X-18E, Hofflund, t10/18; cum 41K 12/18; a huge well, 34K in 12/18;
  • 32312, 480, XTO, Sonya Federal 11X-18A, Hofflund, t10/18; cum 13K 12/18; a nice well, 13K in 16 days in 12/18;
  • 32314, 456, XTO, Sonya 11X-18F, Hofflund, t11/18; cum --;

Twenty Wells Come Off The Confidential List; Eight DUCs; CLR, Oasis Each Report Three Nice Wells -- February 18, 2019

Wells reporting today.

Monday, February 18, 2019: 76 wells for the month; 179 wells for the quarter
  • 34979, 1,651, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-12-1H-3, Wolf Bay, t12/18; cum 12K 12/18; Halliday wells are tracked here; 50 stages; 6.9 million lbs;
  • 34917, SI/NC, XTO, Christiana 21X-6EXH, West Capa, no production data,
  • 33852, 978, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 4BX, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 102K 12/18;
  • 33851, 634, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 5TX, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 80K 12/18; 50 stages; 10 million lbs;
  • 28954, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-7, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Sunday, February 17, 2019: 71 wells for the month; 174 wells for the quarter
  • 34919, SI/NC, XTO, Christiana 21X-6AXB, West Capa, no production data,  
  • 34918, SI/NC, XTO, Christiana 21X-6A, West Capa, no production data,
  • 34812, 474, NP Resources, Cerkoney 141-100-2-11-1H, Tree Top, t9/18; cum 28K 12/18; frack data not yet available; in the target 94% of the time;
  • 34767, 648, CLR, Teresa D 1-10H, Juno, t8/18; cum 75K 12/18;
  • 33920, 651, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 6T, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 93K 12/18;
  • 33104, 2,313, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 13-19H2, Elm Tree, t1/19; cum --;
  • 28953, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-6, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Saturday, February 16, 2019: 64 wells for the month; 167 wells for the quarter
  • 34920, SI/NC, XTO, Christiana 21X-6F, West Capa, no production data,
  • 34512, 796, Nine Point Energy, Fritz 150-101-32-29-8H, Pronghorn, t9/18; cum 76K 12/8;
  • 33919, 965, Oasis, Dawson 5494 42-12 5B, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 120K 12/18;
  • 33292, 593, Liberty Resources, Waldon W 157-97-24-25-2TFH, Ray, t8/18; cum 51K 12/18; 27 stages; 10.1 million lbs inc ceramic;
  • 32065, drl, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork, no production data,
  • 30137, 1,228, CLR, Pletan 6-18H1, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 70K 12/18; 61 stages; 13.8 million lbs;
  • 28952, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-5, Alkali Creek, no production data,  
  • 28951, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-4, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs64564038130