And We''ll End With This -- March 2, 2024

Locator: 46646MARKET.

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22 

Sylvia Tyson.

Time For A Musical Interlude -- November 18, 2023

Locator: 46865MUSIC.

Link here.

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21

Debbie Harry.

Time For A YouTube Interlude -- January 27, 2024

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The Book Page

Checked out from the library this past week; enthralled.

Now, need my own copy. It can't be read in two weeks.

Page after page of history so well told. 

Oh, the book?

The Gulf: The Making of an American Sea, Jack E. Davis, c. 2017.

It just seems if you live along / on the coast, you need this book on tu estanteria.

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Flashback
1990 - 1991

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20 

David Lynch.

The Strength Of The US Consumer -- January 17, 2024

Re-Posting.

Locator: 46569ECON.

What's missing? Why are US consumers so resilient? I argue that it is has to do with America's free market capitalism. 

Updates

Later, 7:07 p.m. CT: 

Original Post

Link here.

And from Schwab:

1.9 / 2.4 =  79.2%. I don't know to what extent house sales, mortgages, rental payments contribute to "consumer spending." My hunch: house sales / mortgages and rental. payments were pretty flat q/q.

Consumer resilience:

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19

Charlie Pride

ERCOT Update; Callifornia Trains -- Januuary 17, 2024

Locator: 46572TRAIN.

Nancy Lieberman: before we get started, Nancy Lieberman on local network television, ABC, prior to Mavericks - LA Laker game. Whoo-hoo. 

Even my wife was impressed by her presence. And, now, to watch an NBA basketball game. Another whoo-hoo. Wow, I miss Phil Jackson and all the rest.

Phil Jackson: 

In 1999, Jackson moved to Los Angeles to coach the Lakers. He convinced the team on his offensive and defensive philosophies, which encouraged Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant to the best seasons of their careers.

The result was three straight NBA championships, something the Laker team had never accomplished before.

In 2004 Jackson left the team to take time off from coaching, but re-joined the Los Angeles Lakers as their head coach on June 14, 2005, less than one year after leaving. Jackson lead the Lakers to two more NBA titles in 2009 and 2010.

Jackson retired from coaching in 2011 as the NBA's career leader in playoff victories and playoff winning percentage, with eleven NBA titles, the most ever by an NBA coach.

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Now, Back To Regular Programming

In round numbers:

• Texas capacity: 100K
• Texas demand: 75K
• ISONE demand: 15K - 25K
• Question: Is it time for the country to build a high voltage transmission line from Texas to New Hampshire? Most of that excess Texas electricity is coming from wind and solar, unlike that in New England..

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California Trains

Updates here.

Bullet train. Nice update. January 9, 2024. Current cost estimates:

When nearly 53% of voters approved the $10 billion bond to launch the project in 2008, they were told an 800-mile network would be running by 2020, and it would only cost $40 billion. The project footprint has shrunk considerably – some 300 miles – and the most optimistic price tag is $88 billion. The higher end of the estimate, $128 billion, is also pretty optimistic.

LA - LV train: nice update. Link here. The Patch. Developer ready to hire 1,100 workers to start building.

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18

Phil Jackson.

Reminder: 6:30 P.M. CT Tonight A Football Game -- January 8, 2024

Locator: 46493FOOTBALL.

Be sure to check local times, etc.

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17

Paul Harvey

Another Musical Interlude -- Hey, It's Christmas -- December 22, 2023

Locator: 46376WILLOW.

COP: breaking. Link here. 

 The wiki page.

Alaskan lawmakers from both sides, as well as the Arctic Slope Regional Corporation, have supported the Willow project.

In March 2023, the Biden administration approved the project

Environmentalist organization Earthjustice immediately filed a lawsuit on behalf of conservation groups to stop the project, saying that the approval of a new carbon pollution source contradicted President Joe Biden's promises to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and transition the United States to clean energy.

Judge Sharon Gleason upheld the Biden administration's approval in November 2023.

ConocoPhillips announced its final investment decision (FID) to develop the project -- one month later.

The project could produce up to 750 million barrels of oil and 287 million tons of carbon emissions plus other greenhouse gases over 30 years, according to an older government estimate, release the same amount of greenhouse gasses annually as half a million homes.

The BLM has predicted adverse effects on public health, the sociocultural system of Native American communities, arctic wildlife and the complex local arctic tundra. [Same arguments for the TAPS which never came to fruition.]

From wiki: 

Over its anticipated 30-year life, the Willow project could produce 200,000 barrels of oil per day, producing up to 600 million barrels of oil in total. 

Could someone check me on the math:

• 600 million bbls / 200,000 bopd = 3,000 days = 8.2 years.

Oil, once produced is, for the most part, not put in storage for more than a few months and is consumed within days once refined, distributed, and bought by end-users.

How do we get "carbon emissions and greenhouse gases over 30 years."

But, having said that, two ways to look at this:

• 600 million bbls / 200,000 bopd = 8 years, as noted above; or,
• 200,000 bopd x 356 days x 30 years = 21,900,000,000 = 21,900 million bbls

Money

According to the Bureau of Land Management, the Willow project is projected to deliver $8 billion to $17 billion in new revenue for the federal government, the state of Alaska and Alaska Native communities. 

Let's take the high end: $17 billion

• assume a royalty rate of 25%, low end: $68 billion in revenue
• assume a royalty rate of 50%, high end: $34 billion in revenue

Then:

• $68 billion / 600 million bbls = $113 / bbl
• $34 billion / 600 million bbls - $57 / bbl

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Environment:

With regard to any adverse environmental impact, it's a wash: California is shutting down a similar amount of oil activity in its state.

There are two ways to stop a "Willow Project" once approved:

• in court; or, if that doesn't work,
• photo ops of thousands of protestors gluing themselves to permanent structures while listening to Greta.

The legal path has come to an end (?). 

I can't imagine a thousand protestors gluing themselves to baleen washed ashore along the North Slope. 

The project could produce 750 million bbls of crude oil at a rate of 200,000 bopd. 

To put that in perspective, the Bakken is producing at a rate of one million bopd and, unfettered, at $200 / barrel could produce two million bopd for fifty years. At the current rate, the Bakken will continue to produce through December 14, 2099.

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The Mamas And The Papas

It's amazing, Paul Shaffer shows up everywhere. 

It's also amazing, the person in that group I miss the most? Yeah, the same one you miss: Mama Cass. 

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16

 Paul Shaffer

DUC Update -- The Bakken -- December, 2023

Locator: 46364DUCS.

DUC update. 

Provided by a reader. Thank you, very much.

Month/Year	Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	603
Jan-14	174	143	634
Feb-14	214	158	690
Mar-14	216	218	688
Apr-14	220	207	701
May-14	216	208	709
Jun-14	237	225	721
Jul-14	257	243	735
Aug-14	229	207	757
Sep-14	250	232	775
Oct-14	186	243	718
Nov-14	209	202	725
Dec-14	224	194	755
Jan-15	198	193	760
Feb-15	230	151	839
Mar-15	183	170	852
Apr-15	143	127	868
May-15	125	139	854
Jun-15	110	135	829
Jul-15	103	124	808
Aug-15	111	101	818
Sep-15	99	92	825
Oct-15	118	84	859
Nov-15	100	89	870
Dec-15	98	78	890
Jan-16	71	80	881
Feb-16	61	41	901
Mar-16	68	45	924
Apr-16	43	39	928
May-16	47	59	916
Jun-16	42	54	904
Jul-16	45	56	893
Aug-16	53	82	864
Sep-16	49	66	847
Oct-16	59	85	821
Nov-16	61	86	796
Dec-16	53	49	800
Jan-17	62	52	810
Feb-17	51	58	803
Mar-17	78	71	810
Apr-17	78	104	784
May-17	94	82	796
Jun-17	76	105	767
Jul-17	95	103	759
Aug-17	99	110	748
Sep-17	98	97	749
Oct-17	105	110	744
Nov-17	93	86	751
Dec-17	77	65	763
Jan-18	107	72	798
Feb-18	74	74	798
Mar-18	95	90	803
Apr-18	109	110	802
May-18	125	131	796
Jun-18	108	118	786
Jul-18	134	155	765
Aug-18	108	138	735
Sep-18	108	122	721
Oct-18	121	118	724
Nov-18	110	99	735
Dec-18	108	70	773
Jan-19	121	71	823
Feb-19	108	56	875
Mar-19	111	110	876
Apr-19	118	112	882
May-19	127	127	882
Jun-19	118	149	851
Jul-19	123	122	852
Aug-19	123	144	831
Sep-19	110	88	853
Oct-19	116	108	861
Nov-19	96	88	869
Dec-19	94	86	877
Jan-20	99	98	878
Feb-20	94	100	872
Mar-20	94	108	858
Apr-20	69	33	894
May-20	33	14	913
Jun-20	18	11	920
Jul-20	18	22	916
Aug-20	19	27	908
Sep-20	18	51	875
Oct-20	19	41	853
Nov-20	20	31	842
Dec-20	20	51	811
Jan-21	20	41	790
Feb-21	19	24	785
Mar-21	25	45	765
Apr-21	27	47	745
May-21	29	62	712
Jun-21	31	33	710
Jul-21	32	66	676
Aug-21	39	69	646
Sep-21	42	79	609
Oct-21	43	78	574
Nov-21	47	68	553
Dec-21	52	50	555
Jan-22	53	35	573
Feb-22	64	49	588
Mar-22	67	68	587
Apr-22	58	39	606
May-22	75	61	620
Jun-22	75	81	614
Jul-22	75	89	600
Aug-22	76	93	583
Sep-22	78	82	579
Oct-22	77	95	561
Nov-22	79	78	562
Dec-22	80	40	602
Jan-23	80	95	587
Feb-23	80	85	582
Mar-23	80	88	574
Apr-23	79	101	552
May-23	74	99	527
Jun-23	70	113	484
Jul-23	70	111	443
Aug-23	68	105	406
Sep-23	64	108	362
Oct-23	67	85	344
Nov-23	67	82	329

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15

Linda Ronstadt.