Another Musical Interlude -- Hey, It's Christmas -- December 22, 2023

Locator: 46376WILLOW.

COP: breaking. Link here. 

 The wiki page.

Alaskan lawmakers from both sides, as well as the Arctic Slope Regional Corporation, have supported the Willow project.

In March 2023, the Biden administration approved the project

Environmentalist organization Earthjustice immediately filed a lawsuit on behalf of conservation groups to stop the project, saying that the approval of a new carbon pollution source contradicted President Joe Biden's promises to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and transition the United States to clean energy.

Judge Sharon Gleason upheld the Biden administration's approval in November 2023.

ConocoPhillips announced its final investment decision (FID) to develop the project -- one month later.

The project could produce up to 750 million barrels of oil and 287 million tons of carbon emissions plus other greenhouse gases over 30 years, according to an older government estimate, release the same amount of greenhouse gasses annually as half a million homes.

The BLM has predicted adverse effects on public health, the sociocultural system of Native American communities, arctic wildlife and the complex local arctic tundra. [Same arguments for the TAPS which never came to fruition.]

From wiki: 

Over its anticipated 30-year life, the Willow project could produce 200,000 barrels of oil per day, producing up to 600 million barrels of oil in total. 

Could someone check me on the math:

• 600 million bbls / 200,000 bopd = 3,000 days = 8.2 years.

Oil, once produced is, for the most part, not put in storage for more than a few months and is consumed within days once refined, distributed, and bought by end-users.

How do we get "carbon emissions and greenhouse gases over 30 years."

But, having said that, two ways to look at this:

• 600 million bbls / 200,000 bopd = 8 years, as noted above; or,
• 200,000 bopd x 356 days x 30 years = 21,900,000,000 = 21,900 million bbls

Money

According to the Bureau of Land Management, the Willow project is projected to deliver $8 billion to $17 billion in new revenue for the federal government, the state of Alaska and Alaska Native communities. 

Let's take the high end: $17 billion

• assume a royalty rate of 25%, low end: $68 billion in revenue
• assume a royalty rate of 50%, high end: $34 billion in revenue

Then:

• $68 billion / 600 million bbls = $113 / bbl
• $34 billion / 600 million bbls - $57 / bbl

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Environment:

With regard to any adverse environmental impact, it's a wash: California is shutting down a similar amount of oil activity in its state.

There are two ways to stop a "Willow Project" once approved:

• in court; or, if that doesn't work,
• photo ops of thousands of protestors gluing themselves to permanent structures while listening to Greta.

The legal path has come to an end (?). 

I can't imagine a thousand protestors gluing themselves to baleen washed ashore along the North Slope. 

The project could produce 750 million bbls of crude oil at a rate of 200,000 bopd. 

To put that in perspective, the Bakken is producing at a rate of one million bopd and, unfettered, at $200 / barrel could produce two million bopd for fifty years. At the current rate, the Bakken will continue to produce through December 14, 2099.

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The Mamas And The Papas

It's amazing, Paul Shaffer shows up everywhere. 

It's also amazing, the person in that group I miss the most? Yeah, the same one you miss: Mama Cass. 

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 Paul Shaffer