TGIF -- December 22, 2023

Locator: 46374B.

Breaking: US Supreme Court won't intervene; Trump-Colorado ballot case; next stop: appellate court. 

Cathie Wood: incredibly good interview on CNBC today. 

Incredible. Ignore Cathie Wood at your own peril. Ten years ago when she started the company, she invested in Nvidis at $5 / share. She continues to hold NVDA but has pivoted elsewhere for new money.

I've not heard a better analyst speak on CNBC. When SBV went under, Bitcoin was a flight to safety. Say what? No wonder the conventional banks are scared. Or unaware. Think Charlie Munger. Five-year horizon. Mentioned her top picks with that horizon in mind. Bitcoin, of course, but CRISPR -- lots of time spent on CRISPR. Sickle cell this year; thalassemia next year (2024). If you have time for one thing today, listen to the Cathie Wood interview.

Ticker of the day: SCCO. SCCO will replace DE in my investment buckets. SCCO is a two-sector play: tech, big-cap-div-paying. We all had access to the same information one year ago.

 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

Not so busy today, at least compared to yesterday. But today will be all about energy.

Personal investing: bought SNAP.

Jargon:

• Microsoft's PowerPoint referred to as "slide deck": CNBC.

Coal: now that COP28 is behind us, we can get back to "normal," and back to work:

• Japan to re-starts Yokosuka, the country's #2 coal-fired unit; Argus;
• India plans to expand its coal power fleet to meet soaring demand; envisages 63% more capacity than earlier plans; link here.
  

LNG:

• lack of Arctic tankers puts Russia's LNG development dreams on ice; link here;

Oil:

• Buffett keeps adding more and more OXY; link here and here;
• China's oil demand continues to soar; link here.
• top global oil producer: US #1;
• Angola quits OPEC;
  

American economy:

• consumer sentiment up; today's numbers;
• corporate profits have held up relative gross national product (GNP); at a healthy level relative to history; Liz; 
  
• GDP: 3Q23 -- up 6.2% year/year; say what? One has to go back to the 50s and 60s to see these kinds of numbers;
• rent inflation down; short spike; transitory; link here;
• inflation: core PCE 3.2 vs 3.3 estimate y/y 
• on CNBC, Fidelity spokesperson equally amazed; incredibly bullish; sees no recession
• sees the bull market broadening
• investors have not missed the biggest part of the run yet
  
• fun to watch from where he reports: at home, apartment
• commercial microphone; pretty impressive "photo-op"
  
• two bikes, including an E-bike; skateboard in corner against entrance door
  
• narrative is finally changing; we figured this out two years ago -- CNBC finally noting same thing;
  

Geopolitics:

• Iran providing real-time data for Houthis to attack shipping; what's the strategy? Doesn't make sense.
• winners: crude oil investors
• loser: one -- China; a close Iranian ally
• Israel widening its operations in Gaza; obviously behind the scenes the Biden administration is not taking Israel to task
  
• Germany: planning permanent military deployment to Lithuania (note: "deployment" and "permanent" mutually exclusive)

Tech and investing:

• laptops making huge comeback; winner: Microsoft; Arm's backk; Intel and AMD are getting ready for a Windows refresh
• Microsoft discontinues Windows Mixed Reality; link here; link here. May become a stand-alone post.
  
• Amazon: absolutely incredible; link here;
• Micron surges; bullish story for all of tech; 
• Apple: next-gen CarPlay will start with Porsche and Aston Martin; 
• The Verge: may need to be a stand-alone post;
  
• 2024 vehicles from high-end automakers will get the first taste of Apple’s “cohesive design experience that is the very best of your car and your iPhone.”

Sports:

• LA Dodgers: another $325-million contract for a star player;
• on top of the $700-million contract just a few weeks ago;

Angus bull sales:

• start to get ready; they begin in January; from 2021 -- #2 record price, from Nebraska;
  
• #1 sale was in 2019; North Dakota
  
• best Australia can do?  $375,000 -- some years ago
  

Presidential pardons: marijuana use on federal land and DC

• much could be said; maybe later

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.81.

Sunday, December 24, 2023: 36 for the month; 185 for the quarter, 755 for the year
39500, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 157-99-1-12-3H,
39290, conf, Hess, GO-Tong Trust A-157-96-2032H-4,

Saturday, December 23, 2023: 34 for the month; 183 for the quarter, 753 for the year
39646, conf, Grayson Mill, Fleck 150-100-1-12-5H,
39497, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-3H,

Friday, December 22, 2023: 32 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 751 for the year
39026, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-157-96-2833H-3,
38113, conf, Formentera , LFM1 21-33 161-93 CMB,

RBN Energy: the SPR is slowly being refilled; how much is enough? Seriously, as long as I've been blogging -- 10+ years -- the SPR has never affected oil prices. The SPR is now seen for what it is -- another political plaything.

It seems like everyone has an opinion about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and everyone is at least a little bit right. For example, many assert the SPR provides a helpful crude oil supply buffer in the event of a major disruption from, say, a strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or a war in the Middle East. Others say the market can take care of itself — the SPR just muddies the waters by getting government (and worse yet, politicians!) involved. Still others say the oil market has changed dramatically since the SPR was established almost a half-century ago and that the strategy behind the reserve should be revised in response to those changes. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the very gradual refilling of the SPR after a big draining — and an ongoing debate about the reserve’s future.