Tuesday, February 16, 2021

No New Permits; Twenty-Two Permits Canceled -- WTI Closes At $60 -- February 16, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Nice for former WPX shareholders


DVN
: was up 4.45% today before the close. Held that gain after hours. 

Comment: folks may not recall but there was an article not too long ago that said shale operators were going to have a ton of cash to give away. If I can find it, I will link it. Later: here it is. It's an old story. Not sure if it still has relevance.

GS: bullish on energy, ZeroHedge via Oilprice, link here.

Et tu, WB

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$60.05
2/16/202102/16/202002/16/201902/16/201802/16/2017
Active Rigs1556645639

No new permits.

One permit renewed:

  • Resource Energy CanAm: a Bettle permit in Divide County

Twenty-two permits canceled:

  • EOG (19): eleven Burke permits in Mountrail County; five Austin permits in Mountrail County; one Parshall, one Sidoia, one Van Hook permit, all in Mountrail County:
  • White Butte Oil Operations (2): two Jore Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • Slawson: one Wolverine Federal permit in McKenzie County

BRK Announces Changes In Portfolio -- 3Q20 13-F Filing -- February 16, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Link here.

  • gold: sold off of its shares in Barrick Gold, a position first disclosed in 2Q20 
    • this seemed so out of character for Buffett -- to have bought it in the first place
  • Chevron: up 2.61% after announcement
    • new stake in Chevron
    • up 2.05% during normal hours
    • after hours, up another 2%
    • closed at $93.13; after hours, trading at $95
    • bought 48 million shares of Chevron
    • about $4.5 billion?
  • Verizon: up 2.75% after announcement
    • 147.6 million shares;
    • $8.6 billion
    • 6th largest holding in his portfolio
    • Verizon is parent company of Yahoo!Finance
    • VZ was flat today; after hours, moved up 3.05%; moved up $1.65; trading at $55.80
    • waiting for link to see how many new shares bought
  • new stake in E. W. Scripps & Co
    • bought 23 million shares
  • boosted shares in positions first disclosed in 3Q20
    • AbbVie
    • Bristol Myers Squibb
    • Merck -- was down 1% during the day; after the announcement, after hours, up 0.5%;
  • PFE: sold all shares in PFE
  • selling off its holdings in banks
    • exited his position in JP Morgan
    • exited his position in PNC Financial
    • cut his stake in Wells Fargo, by 58%, selling 75 million shares 
    • trimmed his position in US Bancorp
    • trimmed his Apple stake by about 6%
  • trimmed Apple stake by about 6%; selling 56 million shares
    • Apple is still BRK's largest stock holding

The buzz all day on CNBC: banks would benefit from rising rates. Interesting that he sold. 

*****************************
S&P 500

"Earnings estimates racing higher." -- CNBC

*****************************
Apple Car

Why Apple is getting serious about an Apple car. Link here. Munster estimates the smartphone market to be worth $450 billion, a figure Loup Ventures arrived at using 1.4 billion annual unit sales with an average selling price (ASP) of $310.

The analyst estimates the global market for new vehicles, including cars, light trucks, commercial vehicles, and semis to be about $2.8 trillion.

My comment: that may be, but smartphone seems to have a relative small number of "relevant" players; on the other hand, I've run out of fingers and toes counting all the legacy marques and all startups getting into EVs. Of course, ten percent of $3 trillion is $300 billion. That is "new vehicles." Then we get into market share of EVs / ICEs in new vehicles.

CLR Earnings 4Q20-- February 16, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

CLR closed up 5.5% today.  Investors seem happy with these results. CLR flat after hours, after announcement.

From SeekingAlpha yesterday:

  • Continental Resources is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Tuesday, February 16th, after market close.

Just out:

The Company reported a full-year 2020 net loss of $596.9 million, or $1.65 per diluted share. For full-year 2020, typically excluded items in aggregate represented $172.9 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, of Continental's reported net loss. Adjusted net loss for full-year 2020 was $424.0 million, or $1.17 per diluted share (non-GAAP). Net cash provided by operating activities for full-year 2020 was $1.42 billion and EBITDAX was $1.68 billion (non-GAAP).

The Company reported a net loss of $92.5 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2020. In fourth quarter 2020, typically excluded items in aggregate represented $10.6 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, of Continental's reported net loss. Adjusted net loss for fourth quarter 2020 was $81.9 million, or $0.23 per diluted share (non-GAAP). Net cash provided by operating activities for fourth quarter 2020 was $487.5 million and EBITDAX was $572.0 million (non-GAAP).

Adjusted net income (loss), adjusted net income (loss) per share, free cash flow, free cash flow yield, EBITDAX, net debt, net sales prices and cash general and administrative (G&A) expenses per barrel of oil equivalent (Boe) presented herein are non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions and explanations for how these measures relate to the most directly comparable U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) financial measures are provided at the conclusion of this press release.

Productions and operations update:

Full-year 2020 total production averaged 300,090 Boepd. Full-year 2020 oil production averaged 160,505 Bopd. Full-year 2020 natural gas production averaged 837.5 MMcfpd. Fourth quarter 2020 total production averaged 339,307 Boepd. Fourth quarter 2020 oil production averaged 176,639 Bopd. Fourth quarter 2020 natural gas production averaged 976.0 MMcfpd.

The Company achieved its 2020 completed well cost targets in both the Bakken and Oklahoma, with go forward well costs in the Bakken of approximately $690 per lateral foot, at a 10,000' lateral length, and in Oklahoma of approximately $1,070 per lateral foot, at an 8,200' lateral length. These all-in well costs include drilling and completion (D&C), full facilities and artificial lift. Cost savings are 70% to 80% structural and are being driven by a reduction in drilling cycle times, stage counts, proppant volumes and stimulation days, as well as the optimization of artificial lift.

 

FY20: $1.4 B Cash Flow from Operations & $275 MM Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP)

4Q20: $488 MM Cash Flow from Operations & $332 MM Free Cash Flow (FCF)
   o $168 MM in Non-Acquisition Capex 
   o 176.6 MBopd & 976 MMcfpd Average Daily Production
   o $2.80 Production Expense per Boe

• FY20: Fifth Consecutive Year of Generating Positive FCF
   o $1.16 B in Non-Acquisition Capex ($1.2 B Guidance) 
   o 160.5 MBopd & 837.5 MMcfpd Avg. Daily Production (155-165 MBopd & 800-820 MMcfpd
      Guidance) 
   o $3.27 Production Expense per Boe ($3.50-$3.75 Guidance)

FY21: Projecting Sixth Consecutive Year of Generating Positive FCF

• In Excess of 40% of Cash Flow from Operations Projected toward Shareholder
  Capital Returns through Debt Reduction and Future Dividends1 
  
o Targeting Approx. $4.5 B Total Debt by YE21; <$4.0 B by YE22

• Approx. $2.4 B of Cash Flow from Operations; $1.0 B of FCF; 12% FCF Yield2  (non-GAAP)
  
58% Reinvestment Rate; 3-4% Total Production Growth; Budgeted at $52 WTI & $2.75 HH
   o $5 Increase in WTI = Approx. $250 MM Increase in Cash Flow

• Expanding Operations into the Oil-Weighted Wyoming Powder River Basin in March 2021
  
o Adds 130,000 Net Acres & 400 MMBoe Net Unrisked Resource Potential to CLR Portfolio

Vaccine Rollout -- Update -- The Tuesday Update -- February 16, 2021

Link here. Because the CDC did not provide a report yesterday (holiday), I put in figures for yesterday based on average of day before + day after. From my perspective, not much to be seen here. 

Prior to the storm, "they" were trending toward 2 million vaccinations daily. During the storm, that number dropped back to 1.7 million vaccinations daily.



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of doses given/doses received over previous 24 hours

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Tuesday

February 16, 2021

71,657,975

800,088

55,220,364

1,168,004

145.98%

77.06%

Monday no data holiday

February 15, 2021

70,857,888

800,088

54,052,360

1,168,004

145.98%

76.28%

Sunday

February 14, 2021

70,057,800

521,538

52,884,356

2,236,899

428.90%

75.49%

Saturday estimate

February 13, 2021

69,536,263

521,538

50,647,457

2,236,899

428.90%

72.84%

Friday

February 12, 2021

69,014,725

729,150

48,410,558

2,020,288

277.07%

70.15%

Thursday

February 11, 2021

68,285,575

2,313,000

46,390,270

1,620,300

70.05%

67.94%

Wednesday

February 10, 2021

65,972,575

3,073,800

44,769,970

1,563,780

50.87%

67.86%

Tuesday

February 9, 2021

62,898,775

1,795,488

43,206,190

788,573

43.92%

68.69%

Monday

February 8, 2021

61,103,288

1,795,488

42,417,617

1,206,680

67.21%

69.42%

Sunday

February 7, 2021

59,307,800

3,200

41,210,937

2,172,973

67905.41%

69.49%

Saturday

February 6, 2021

59,304,600

924,300

39,037,964

2,218,752

240.05%

65.83%

Friday

February 5, 2021

58,380,300

890,625

36,819,212

1,615,502

181.39%

63.07%

Thursday

February 4, 2021

57,489,675

1,545,875

35,203,710

1,325,456

85.74%

61.23%

Wednesday

February 3, 2021

55,943,800

3,286,125

33,878,254

1,097,394

33.39%

60.56%

Tuesday

February 2, 2021

52,657,675

2,721,225

32,780,860

558,458

20.52%

62.25%

Percent of Americans receiving at least one vaccination increases by 0.3% every day. That has been quite consistent. I'm using 330 million as the population of the United States recognizing that only those older than 16 are getting the vaccine.



Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses

Number of People Receiving 2 Doses

Number of People Considered Fully Immunized

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans With 2 Doses

Tuesday

February 16, 2021

55,220,364

39,670,551

15,015,434


1,168,004.00

99.03%

12.02%

Monday, no data holiday

February 15, 2021

54,052,360

38,981,410.5

14,546,437


1,168,004.00

99.03%

11.81%

Sunday

February 14, 2021

52,884,356

38,292,270

14,077,440


2,236,899.00

99.03%

11.60%

Saturday Estimate

February 13, 2021

50,647,457

37,063,563

13,081,635


2,236,899.00

99.01%

11.23%

Friday

Feb 12, 2021

48,410,558

35,834,855

12,085,830


2,020,288.00

98.99%

10.86%

Thursday

Feb 11, 2021

46,390,270

34,723,964

11,188,782


1,620,300.00

98.97%

10.52%

Wednesday

Feb 10, 2021

44,769,970

33,783,384

10,469,514


1,563,780.00

98.85%

10.24%

Tuesday

Feb 9, 2021

43,206,190

32,867,213

9,840,429


788,573.00

98.85%

9.96%

Monday

Feb 8, 2021

42,417,617

32,340,146

9,518,015


1,206,680.00

98.68%

9.80%

Sunday

Feb 7, 2021

41,210,937

31,579,100

9,147,185


2,172,973.00

98.82%

9.57%

Saturday

Feb 6, 2021

39,037,964

30,250,964

8,317,180


2,218,752.00

98.80%

9.17%

Friday

Feb 5, 2021

36,819,212

28,909,497

7,503,864


1,615,502.00

98.90%

8.76%

Thursday

Feb 4, 2021

35,203,710

27,905,197

6,926,050


1,325,456.00

98.94%

8.46%

Wednesday

February 3, 2021

33,878,254

27,154,956

6,436,931


1,097,394.00

99.15%

8.23%

Tuesday

February 2, 2021

32,780,860

26,440,836

6,064,792


558,458.00

99.16%

8.01%