Friday, April 23, 2021

Request For Readers' Help -- April 23, 2021

Tires. Apparently there is big business in burning waste tires in Japan for heating. Apparently ports in Oregon are  major export centers for shipping waste tires to Japan. I am unable to find a link to a current story regarding this. If any reader can find links to stories along this line, it would be very much appreciated.
Portland: the dream of the 90s died in Portland.  

A Little Music Theory
E-Flat: Nostalgia

Week 16: April 18, 2021 -- April 24, 2021

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president. 

Theme for the past week:

Most under-reported story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national every story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • DAPL

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota Energy stories:






Natural gas:

Bakken 101:

Bakken economy:

No Daily Activity Report Posted For Friday -- ? -- April 23, 2021

The Friday Night News Dump -- Release The Kraken -- April 23, 2021


April 24, 2021: Just when you thought you had forgotten about the honey bees --- not so fast!  This is another meme that will never go away. The question not being asked: why were honey bees affected by "man," whereas the wasps did just fine?

Original Post

Wow, that was fast: taking a page out of the Obama playbook -- the Friday night news dump. US government says okay to put JNJ Covid-19 vaccine back on the market. "They" waited until late Friday to announce the decision. 

Some folks have suggested the previous administration rushed the bureaucratic process in order to allow "emergency use" authorization of JNJ's Covid-19 vaccine. It took about a year, I suppose, to go from "zero" to "emergency authorization use" with a gazillion pages of scientific research and bureaucratic review prior to release. 

So, on a Tuesday, April 13, 2021, nine business days ago, the "authorities" asked states to temporarily and voluntarily halt the administration of said vaccine. 

Then, on Friday, April 17, 2021, less than four full business days later, the "authorities" were apparently ready to recommend states voluntarily resume administration of the JNJ vaccine. 

Apparently "four days" looked a little fishy, so they waited a few more days, until today, April 23, 2021, to make the announcement. Less then ten business days to get through all that scientific research. Pretty fast for government work. 

And it's so safe, the panel says it's okay for pregnant women and their babies. Link here. Yup, and there it is -- the time-stamp: 4:51 EDT. Can't cut it much more closely than that. The vaccine will be re-released with no restrictions. There will be a warming label for women under the age of 50.

What we knew all along: social distancing is worthless. MIT study

US Covide vaccinations: slowing. More states showing more than 50% of residents stabbed/jabbed.

Today's market: it looks like simple sector rotation. LOL. Money moved from cryptocurrency to blue chips. Cryptocurrency loses $200 billion in one day.

Mixed messages:

A little clarity:

The S&P 500 added more than 1% to reach a record intraday high, after the index dropped 0.9% during the regular trading day for its worst session in five weeks.

The blue-chip index ended just short of its record closing high. The Dow and Nasdaq also rose to reverse Thursday's losses.

Ouch: on a day when even American Airlines gained 5.2%, Intel lost as much as 5.2%. Not good. Most active:

  • SNAP: up 4%
  • AAPL: up 2.4%
  • INTC: down 3.3%

RELEASE THE KRAKEN: over at MarketWatch today:


  • the new capital gains tax won't go into effect until next year, assuming it's even passed by Congress;
  • at most, the new law would affect 500 families in the US (I doubt you are one of them);
  • already the proposed maximum tax increase has already been watered down;
  • the families that are super-rich have 95% of these companies in retirement accounts and capital gains are tax-deferred in these accounts
  • of the equity not in retirement accounts, families will make a cost-benefit analysis before selling;
  • the rich who would be affected by this change in the tax law have accountants whose sole purpose is tax avoidance;
  • the new law will take up several pages; the BIG PRINT: the rich will pay more in capital gains taxes;
  • in really, really small print, there will be pages of exceptions, deductions, and credits;
  • there's no way there will be language that would encourage selling shares in  solar and wind energy companies

Rose Bush

Hess With Five More BB-Olson Permits In Blue Buttes Oil Field -- April 23, 2021

California: the "unwelcome" mat is out. Link here Let's see who blinks first. Perhaps the refineries should be the first "to go." Just saying. If the refiners stay, all California is doing is displacing the production. Later, the state will do an investigation to try to find out why gasoline prices are rising.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1529616049

Five new permits, #38272 - #38276, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for five more BB-Olson wells;
    • they will be sited in SESW 9-150-95;
      • 38272, loc, Hess, BB-Olson-LW-150-95-08H-1, Blue Buttes, 325 FSL 1998 FWL
      • 38273, loc, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-5, Blue Buttes, 325 FSL 2031 FWL,
      • 38274, loc, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-4, Blue Buttes, 325 FSL 2064 FWL,
      • 38275, loc, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-3, Blue Buttes, 325 FSL 2097 FWL,
      • 38276, loc, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-2, Blue Buttes, 325 FSL 2130 FWL,
    • note how close the surface hole locations are from each other: 33' apart from each other. Normally I expect to see 50'-separation, occasionally 40'-separation. It's possible other pads have wells sited this closely together but I had not noticed it before.
    • the Hess BB-Olson wells are tracked here;  

Is This The End Of The DAPL? -- April 23, 2021

Link here.

I doubt the US Supreme Court wants to wade into this mess. 

If I understand this correctly, nothing has really changed. The court simply maintained the status quo: it is still up to "the judge" to determine whether the DAPL can remain open during the environmental review that will continue through 2022. 

I could be wrong, but that's how I'm reading it. More to follow, I'm sure.

Immediately following the news, the face of the Bakken, CLR:

  • up 1.62%; up 41 cents trading at $25.72.

But, than again, WTI is up about 0.65% today.

The US Market

I don't think I've seen anything like in the recent past. 

  • Dow: up almost 300 points
  • S&P 500: up 54 points
  • NASDAQ: up 233 points
  • Russell: up 45 points

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The stocks that shocked today:

  • AAPL: up 2.3%; up $3.01/share; trading at $135 
  • BRK-B: up 1%; up $2.32/share; trading at $272 
  • UNP: up 2.4%; up $5.31; trading at $223
  • KMI: up 2.23%; up 36 cents; trading at $16.73
  • OKE: up slightly; trading at $50
  • EPD: up 1.1%; up 26 cents; trading at $23.27
  • ENB: up slightly; trading at $37.03 
  • DFS: up 3.24%; up $3.23; trading at $102.75 
  • AMD: up 5.2%; up $4.11; trading at $83 
  • XLNX: up 5.6%; up $6.82; trading at $130
  • MRNL: up 1.4%; up 22 cents; trading at $16
  • EOG: up 1.4%; up almost a buck; trading at $70
  • WMT: up slightly; trading near $140
  • PFE: up slightly; trading at $38.69;
  • MRK: flat; trading at $78
  • BK: up 2.2%; up a buck; trading at $47.58

Top Energy Story Of The Day -- USA Set For Natural Gas Boom -- April 23, 2021

Link to Rigzone (as usual, some numbers rounded):

  • natural gas production, US:
    • 2019: a record 92.1 Bcfd natural gas produced in the US
    • 2020: declined to 90.8 Bcfd due to Covid-19 lockdowns
    • 2021: on track to fall to 89.7 Bcfd
    • 2022: Rystad forecasts a new all-time record -- 93.3 Bcfd
    • 2024: will exceed 100 Bcfd
  • Haynesville: will off the largest gas output growth going forward
    • will add about 10 Bcfd from 2020 to 2035, growing by 86% during that timeframe
    • will account for 21% of the country's gas production in 2035
    • compares to 13% in 2020
    • if we round down to 10% and down to 20%, that's a doubling in contribution
  • the Permian: another five Bcfd in growth by 2035;
  • the Marcellus and Utica: will also add another five Bcfd:
  • And, Rystad also ranks the regions by CO2 per boe produced; best to worse:
    • Appalachian region: 7.1 kg of CO2 per boe
    • Haynesville: 7.5
    • Niobara: 10.6
    • Permian: 10.9
    • Eagle Ford: 11
    • Bakken: 20.7 kg of CO2 per boe

See first comment. I wonder where he is now.

Forty-Three Years of Earth Day Prognostications

Everyone has their list. Google earth day predictions

The Smithsonian provides its version of these prognostications. 

A reader sent me a note regarding Paul Ehrlich. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Thinking back on the Y2K scare, it's amazing how many "chicken little" fears we've suffered through the years.

One wonders if "seasonal flu" will ever make a comeback or if Covid-19 killed that one off forever?

And, of course, there was always Zika.

I guess in the 1950's we had the "15-minutes-to-run-home to our bomb shelter in case of  a nuclear attack" scare. I actually remember my parents improvising such a bomb shelter in our basement, and me worrying endlessly about the windows at the top of the foundation/ground level -- wondering if they were adequately sealed.

And then, of course, if they were adequately sealed, the level of radon would only worsen, and I would die of lung cancer before the age of fourteen, perhaps dropping dead while running home for a nuclear-bomb drill. Those drills were held once-a-year to determine who could get home in 15 minutes to die with their family, or remain sheltered-in-place to die with their teacher. Hiding under our desk was all we had; the supply closet was too small to hold fifteen second-graders and a pregnant teacher.

And, most worrisome of all: fluoride in our water supply. That was a scare that lingered through my freshman year in college.

I'm not sure how I survived 60+ years of such fears.

The way Sophia, age six and her friends talk about Covid, it is obvious that this is the 2020 version of fluoride, radon, Zika, and CO2 all rolled into one.

By the way, this is quite hilarious. Almost every day Sophia has a banana smoothie. This new routine started about two weeks ago. We make them at home, and she pretty much makes them herself -- she loves turning on the blender.

And everyday we take a plastic straw out of the drawer. Lately, I've been washing and re-using the plastic straws for an extra day or two -- not that I'm worried about the Pacific Ocean living her in Texas -- I just hate spending a couple of bucks on 5-cents worth of plastic.

Yesterday, Sophia noted the straw I gave her was still wet from the previous day. The jig was up. She wasn't going to use a wet straw. So I opened the drawer to get her a new straw and, as God is my witness, as they say in these parts, Sophia said: "No, it's Earth Day. We can't use a plastic straw." 

Obviously that was something her friends discussed at TutorTime yesterday afternoon.

Fast And Furious -- The Mid-Morning Edition -- April 23, 2021

Burnaby boring: by the numbers. Incredible. The bore diameter is 4.43 meters or almost ten-feet across. The Canadian tunnel will be:

  • 2.6 kilometers long (1.56 miles long)
  • it will be buried up to 130 meters below the surface
  • the boring machine itself is 122 meters long -- about the same length as a soccer field
  • once the boring begins, the boring behemoth will boringly bore 24/7 for 200 days
  • purpose: three 30-inch pipelines

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Schlumberger beats on top, bottom lines:

REI: what better way to celebrate Earth Day than in a gas-guzzling SUV?

Apple: the iPad Pro --  Andrew Griffin, Yahoo!Finance -- link here

Apple: AirTags designed to track items, not children or pets. Link here.

Tesla: raises prices on Model 3 and Model Y. Least expensive Tesla, now $39,000. Can't provide link but I'm sure the story is everywhere.

Surprise, surprise: not only did the US Supreme Court shock the US Congress, the Supremes did it unanimously. That FTC practice based on a 1973 law must have been really, really bad for the court to agree 9 - 0 on the case. Next year will we see some 13 - 0 decisions? Forty-eight years of unconstitutional government over-reach.

Chip shortage: only the Covid-19 pandemic may last longer

Intel, 1Q21 earnings:

Intel on Thursday said first-quarter sales fell 1% to $19.7 billion, beating Wall Street estimates. Net income, weighed down by costs of a legal settlement, was $3.4 billion. Excluding the pending sale of its memory business and other items, Intel said revenue was $18.6 billion and net income was $5.7 billion.

Intel’s stock fell around 3% in after-hours trading. 

AMD: well-positioned with acquisition of Xilinx.

KMI: we mentioned this yesterday, but here's another look. This story, unlike the first one I linked, was obviously not written by a robot. Kinder Morgan also raised its dividend by 3% to $1.08 per share for 2021.

TGIF -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List; Active Rig Count Back To Fifteen; WTI Will Close Above $61 For The Week -- April 23, 2021

Poetry in motion: from social media -- if you want to compete, your submission will be submitted for the Rhysling Award

I almost want to quit blogging today. It can't possibly get any better.

What rhymes with Greta? 

Back to the Bakken

CLR's Bridger/ Bonneville wells have been updated.

Active rigs

Active Rigs1529616049

One well coming off the confidential list -- Friday, April 23, 2021: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 100 for the year:

RBN Energy: what do new Gulf of Mexico crude oil projects mean for the offshore productio outlook?

Crude oil production in U.S. shale and tight-oil plays still hasn’t recovered fully from the demand destruction wrought by COVID-19 in the last year or so. It could be argued, though, that producers in the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) have faced even tougher times as they had to deal with not only pandemic-related staffing issues and project setbacks but the most active hurricane season on record. Offshore GOM production averaged only 1.65 MMb/d in 2020, a 13% decline from the previous year and the lowest since 2016. By August, production fell to less than 1.2 MMb/d, the lowest for that month in seven years. Many new projects were delayed as well, but things may finally be looking up, with first oil from a number of projects coming later this year or in early 2022 and final investment decisions (FIDs) on two major projects expected soon. Today, we discuss the wild ride that GOM producers experienced in 2020 and whether better days can be expected in the future.